Gold is rising. Second starting point?Information summary:
1. The US dollar index has experienced the longest consecutive monthly decline since 2017. The weakening of the US dollar has increased the attractiveness of gold denominated in US dollars to non-US dollar holders, becoming an important support factor for gold prices.
2. Trump's continued pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates has formed a resonance effect with the weakening of the US dollar, which has jointly pushed up the short-term attractiveness of gold.
Multiple factors are intertwined, and gold has risen slightly again.
Market analysis:
Gold bottomed out and rebounded on Monday, showing a positive closing, and above 3300. After falling sideways for 5 consecutive trading days last week, although it fell for a short time on Monday, it did not continue. In this case, whether a new high can be reached, the watershed is the 3295 line. As long as the European session breaks the high, the long position is near the starting point of 3305 in the early trading session.
At present, the main focus is on the upper resistance around 3325. It opened directly upward on Tuesday, but did not break through too much space, unless it directly broke through 3325-3330; then the next resistance is around 3340. At present, the bulls are still running at a high level. The upward trend line generated after the reversal is more obvious, and the trend line has good effectiveness.
Since the current market is in the first wave of rise, the high point has not been confirmed. Quaid believes that when the high point is clear and the price falls back to the support area, consider entering the market to go long based on the support level. Of course, aggressive trading can choose to buy around 3320 and choose a suitable high point to take profit.
Operation strategy:
Short near the rebound 3340, stop loss 3350, profit range 3310-3300
Long near the fall 3305, stop loss 3290, profit range 3320-3335
Xauusdtrade
Gold fluctuates upward. Is the decline over?On Monday, gold opened at around 3282, and then fell back quickly to around 3247 under pressure; the downward low was blocked, and then rebounded strongly to around 3297; the market currently maintains a small upward trend.
At present, we need to focus on the resistance range of the upward trend.
From the 4-hour chart, the upper short-term resistance is around 3295-3300, followed by the suppression range of 3310-3315. The main direction of short-term operations maintains the rebound short-selling strategy. The support below is around 3255; the overall short-term operation relies on 3260-3300 to maintain the main tone of high-altitude participation unchanged.
Operation strategy:
Short near 3305, stop loss 3320, profit range 3270-3260.
A new week has just begun. I wish you all gain something from the market fluctuations.
Gold is trading sideways. Has it reached a high point?On the first trading day of this week, after hitting 3247 in the early Asian session, it quickly rebounded to around 3295, and then fell back slightly. It is currently maintained at around 3285.
From the hourly chart, the Fibonacci 0.618 position of this trend from 3247 to 3297 is at 3278. The price has always been above 3278, but it has only fallen below this position in a very short time. If the retracement does not break through the 0.618 position, there is a high probability that there will be a high point in the subsequent trend.
Next, we should focus on the area around 3280. If the price always closes above 3280, then today's high point of 3297 will most likely be refreshed. If the upward trend is opened again, it is very likely to touch around 3310. 3310 is also the current 0.618 position. And it is also the top position of this hourly chart range.
Therefore, we should be cautious when shorting gold above 3280, as there is a high probability that it will reach above 3300.
Aggressive trading can rely on entering the market and going long near 3280, and the profit range is between 3300-3310.
For short strategy trading, Quaid recommends that it is safer to short when the price rebounds near 3310.
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Early Session Dynamics:
Gold rebounded in today’s early trading after finding support at the prior low of 3245, aligning with our weekly forecast. The intraday strategy prioritizes a low-level rebound correction, with short positions to be initiated at resistance levels.
Key Technical Levels:
Resistance: 3295–3308
Support: 3250–3240
4-Hour Chart Perspective:
The market remains weak with high volatility. The double-bottom effect at 3245 is unconfirmed, and no bottoming pattern has emerged. Thus, the week’s initial outlook is for a range-bound oscillation between 3308 and 3240:
A rebound opportunity exists as long as 3240 holds.
A break above 3308 could trigger upward momentum.
Intraday Trading Strategy:
Lacking follow-through in the European session, the short-term trend is viewed as range-bound
Sell@3305-3295
TP:3285-3250
buy@3250-3260
TP:3285-3300
XAU/USD Chart Analysis: Price Retreats to Monthly LowXAU/USD Chart Analysis: Price Retreats to Monthly Low
In mid-June 2025, demand for gold surged following reports of exchanged strikes between Israel and Iran, along with US bombings of Iran's nuclear facilities. As a so-called safe-haven asset, gold prices climbed towards $3,430.
However, by the final day of June, the XAU/USD chart shows that gold had retreated to around $3,250, marking the lowest level in a month.
Why Is the Gold Price Falling?
On one hand, this reflects easing tensions in the Middle East, as a ceasefire—albeit fragile—between Israel and Iran remains in place.
On the other hand, the risk of trade wars is also diminishing. According to media reports:
→ President Donald Trump announced last week that the United States had signed a trade agreement with China and hinted that a “very major” deal with India would follow soon.
→ The US is also close to concluding agreements with Mexico and Vietnam, while negotiations with Japan and many other countries are ongoing.
Technical Analysis of the XAU/USD Chart
Looking at the broader picture, it is worth noting that gold prices in 2025 continue to move within a long-term upward channel (shown in blue), with the following key observations:
→ The channel’s median line acted as resistance (indicated by arrow 1);
→ The line dividing the lower half of the channel in half also showed signs of resistance (indicated by arrow 2).
Now, gold is trading near the lower boundary of the channel – a key support level within the multi-month uptrend. Demand may begin to strengthen here, with long lower wicks on candles on the lower timeframes supporting this view.
A rebound from the lower boundary is possible in early July, but how strong might it be? Note that bears have taken control of the $3,345 level (which has now flipped from support to resistance), and there are signs of a triple top pattern (A-B-C) forming near the $3,430 resistance. This raises the risk of a bearish breakout from the ascending channel.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Non-agricultural data is coming. Will it affect the market trendBecause there will be non-agricultural data next week, Quaid thinks that the market will not be in a hurry to perform at the beginning of the week. And Friday is the US Independence Day, and the market will be closed in advance; maybe only Wednesday and Thursday are really needed.
This week, gold closed below 3300, and the daily line was also broken, and gold officially entered a bearish trend.
First look at the monthly line chart
Because next Monday is the last day of June, the monthly line will start to close, so you can still pay attention to the support of the monthly line. The MA5 moving average below the monthly line is currently around 3170. Moreover, with the support of non-agricultural data next week, the possibility of touching around 3170 is not ruled out.
Secondly, from the weekly line chart
The weekly line is basically the same as the monthly line. The MA20 moving average below is also around 3170. So next week, I think we should focus on around 3170. The monthly line and the weekly line resonate, so the probability of touching this position is very high.
Finally, let's look at the daily chart. The daily chart shows a downward trend and the short-term support has been broken. The current support is around 3250. I think there is a high probability of a small sideways consolidation at the beginning of the week. If the market conditions are eager to change, it may rebound slightly and then continue to decline. If it falls below 3250, it will continue to fall towards 3200. If this level is broken, it may hit the low point of 3170-3175.
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Wait for Resistance Breakout (3400.00) → Then strike!
Buy Stop Orders: Place above Moving Average.
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For Buy Stop Orders: Never set SL before breakout!
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XAU/USD is neutral but primed for bullish moves 🐂. Watch:
Fundamentals (COT Reports, GeoPolitics, News).
Intermarket Trends & Sentiment.
Positioning & Future Targets (Check our bio0 for analysis linkss!).
⚠️ TRADING ALERTS:
News Releases = High Volatility!
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"Break the Wall!" Wait for RESISTANCE (3370.00) to crack, then strike!
2 Ways to Rob:
✅ Buy Stop above Moving Average (breakout confirmation)
✅ Buy Limit near pullback zones (15m/30m recent swing lows)
Pro Tip: Set a chart alert 🚨—don’t miss the breakout!
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"Yo, listen! If you’re buying after breakout, DO NOT set SL until price confirms!
Thief’s SL Rule: Place at recent swing low (4H timeframe)—adjust based on your risk & lot size.
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Avoid new trades during high-impact news.
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Gold has been falling continuously. Will it continue next week?Market review:
The conflict between Israel and Iran intensified, and gold surged in the early stage, and then continued to fluctuate downward. Affected by the situation in the Middle East and weak data from the United States, it fell severely in three trading days, and most of the other time periods were in the stage of repeated washing.
The first round of decline began at the high point of 3452. Affected by the situation in the Middle East, the price rose rapidly, but the rapid rise led to insufficient upward momentum, and the departure of buyers led to continuous declines in a single trading day. The second round of decline was affected by the easing of the conflict between Iran and Israel, and the US dollar, crude oil, and gold all plunged sharply; the third round of decline was Powell's wait-and-see attitude towards the interest rate cut policy, and some US data were bearish for gold, leading to a new round of decline.
Market outlook for next week:
The breaking of the key support bands of 3303 and 3295 means that the downward adjustment has not ended, but after touching the support near 3250, there was a clear bottoming out and recovery. It means that there is strong support below, and the focus of next week's opening is the emergence of price rebound. There were rebounds to varying degrees after the previous two rounds of decline, so this round of decline still needs to be paid attention to. The strategy mainly revolves around shorting on price rebound, with a focus on the upward suppression range of 3285-3310.
If the rebound is small, then at the beginning of next week, it is likely to maintain a small fluctuation in the range of 3270-3285.
The data is negative. Will the price rebound from the bottom?Gold prices have continued to fall since the high near 3450. This trading day started the downward mode near 3328, and the European session continued to fall, breaking a new low. The negative PCE data also continued the downward mode. So far, it has rebounded after hitting the lowest level near 3255. However, the rebound is small, and the upper pressure is still very strong.
From the 4-hour chart, short-term resistance focuses on the vicinity of 3295-3300, followed by important pressure near 3315. The short-term support below focuses on the vicinity of 3265-3270. The overall strategy of shorting at high positions remains unchanged based on this range.
Operation strategy:
Short at the price rebound near 3295, short covering at the high point of 3315, stop loss 3325, profit range 3370-3360.
At present, the price fluctuates greatly. If you want to try scalping transactions, you can trade with a light position and float up and down 5 points to stop loss or profit in time.
This is the last trading day of this week. I hope you all will gain something and have a happy weekend with your family.
Gold Analysis and Trading Outlook – June 27Good morning, everyone!
Yesterday, gold encountered resistance in the 3348–3352 zone and fell back to around 3310 before rebounding toward the 3336 resistance area. Today’s session opened with renewed weakness, and so far, the overall price action has closely followed our expectations. Whether it was selling near resistance, buying after the dip, or shorting the rebound, each opportunity yielded solid profits.
Some traders have asked about my strategy’s win rate. Those who’ve followed consistently already know—the overall win rate has remained above 80%, with very few instances of error. Even in the rare case of a misjudgment, I apply specific recovery strategies to minimize risk and avoid large losses. That’s the core reason why I’m confident I can help many traders.
Technically, the daily chart still shows a bearish trend, and prices are now approaching the key 3300 support zone. While the current geopolitical uncertainty adds complexity, it doesn't prevent us from executing flexible intraday trades. In fact, range-bound markets can still be highly profitable with a disciplined approach.
Key intraday levels to watch:
Dynamic support: 3318–3313
Major support: 3300–3287
Resistance levels: 3336, 3348–3352, and 3370
Today’s trades can continue to focus on these levels, using a sell-high, buy-low strategy with flexibility.
Gold is weak. Can it continue?Gold is still fluctuating and falling slightly today. Gold is weak, so gold is likely to be short-term. If the price rebounds, it will be a short opportunity.
We need to pay attention to the release of US PCE data later.
From the 1-hour chart
the moving average continues to cross the short arrangement and diverge downward. After gold fell below the early support near 3340, it began to move downward weakly. The current upward pressure is around 3295-3310.
From the daily chart, the price is below the MA20 cycle and the 50 cycle, but remains above the 100 cycle. The technical indicators turned higher, but the momentum indicator is at a neutral level, and the RSI index is around 42.7, which does not point to an upward trend.
Since the upcoming data may have some impact on the price, the price may have a short-term high opportunity. Steady trading is still waiting for the price to rise and then short. Of course, if your trading strategy is more aggressive, you can use a long strategy before the price rises.
Operation suggestions:
Radical: Buy near 3280, stop loss at 3265, profit range 3305-3310.
Conservative: Wait for the price to rise and then bear pressure, sell near 3310, stop loss at 3320, profit range 3290-3285.
XAU/USD GOLD 4H + 1H PREMIUM TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – JUNE 27, 20254-HOUR TIMEFRAME – HIGHER TIMEFRAME BIAS
Gold continues to trade near its all-time highs, consolidating just below a recent swing high of $3,315. Despite minor pullbacks, the macro trend remains bullish, with bullish structure still intact. Recent price action shows shallow retracements and strong rejections of key fib levels, a typical sign of underlying smart money accumulation.
Price Action & Market Structure
Gold recently printed a Break of Structure (BOS) at $3,290, followed by a retest of the broken level.
We observed a Change of Character (CHoCH) near $3,300, quickly invalidated by bullish strength – further confirming accumulation behavior.
Market remains in bullish alignment unless $3,250 is broken decisively.
Key Support & Resistance Zones
Resistance $3,315–$3,320
Demand $3,275–$3,282
Support $3,250
Targets $3,340 / $3,355
Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
Liquidity Grab beneath $3,275 likely triggered retail stop hunts
4H Bullish Order Block between $3,275–$3,282 remains unmitigated
Imbalance Zone: $3,283–$3,289 – price may wick into this before launch
Sell-side liquidity taken below $3,275 → bullish reaction
Buy-side liquidity sits above $3,315 → likely short-term magnet
ZOOMING INTO 1-HOUR CHART – INTRADAY SETUPS
The 1-hour chart aligns with the bullish higher-timeframe bias, offering two potential premium-level setups:
Setup #1: Bullish Rejection from 4H OB
Entry Zone: $3,275–$3,282
This setup targets a liquidity sweep beneath $3,275 followed by bullish mitigation of a clean order block and imbalance zone. Confluence across fibs, OB, and structure support increases probability.
Setup #2: Breakout Retest Play
Trigger: Clean breakout and retest of $3,315
Entry: On successful retest (bullish confirmation candle)
Ideal if momentum pushes through local resistance, clearing buy-side liquidity. Reclaim of structure suggests smart money continuation.
Bearish Contingency (Low Probability for Now)
If price breaks below $3,250 and confirms below structure:
Look to short on retests into $3,275
Target next demand around $3,235
Until that happens, bullish bias remains dominant.
Gold remains one of the most structured and responsive instruments to smart money technicals right now. A well-planned entry around demand, imbalance, or breakout levels provides excellent RRR potential if structure holds.
Gold breaks down. It may reach a low point.From the current market daily chart
The absolute support of gold is around 3280. Gold is basically in the process of maintaining this daily trend support line. Therefore, I personally think that around 3280 is a long-short dividing line for gold. If gold falls below 3280 on the daily line, it is very likely that the decline will just begin. On the contrary, be careful. If 3280 does not fall below, there is still a possibility of rebounding.
In the 4-hour chart, from the high point of 3450 to now, the 0.382 position is just around yesterday's high point of 3350. The 0.618 position is at 3325, and the final 100% position is around 3280. 3280 also coincides with the daily chart.
Therefore, gold must at least test around 3280 today, and it is not ruled out that there will be lower positions.
Seize the rebound opportunity and prepare to short goldGold continued to rebound as expected and has now extended to above 3340. In the short term, it tends to fluctuate and rise. In the previous trading idea overnight, I emphasized that everyone should not take the risk of shorting gold near 3330. Now it seems that this reminder is completely necessary. Although gold continues to rebound, the overall performance of the bulls is still not strong, and the upper side is still under pressure in the 3350-3360-3370 area. So I still advocate that you can consider shorting gold in the 3350-3360 area after the rebound.
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Gold is sideways. Is a new trend brewing?Information summary:
On June 23, Trump announced that Iran and Israel reached a comprehensive ceasefire, but the asymmetric terms of the agreement caused the conflict to continue. Israel launched another air strike on Iran, and Israel threatened to kill Iranian senior officials. The uncertainty of geopolitical risks continues to support gold prices.
Market analysis:
From the 4-hour chart, the MA5-day and 10-day moving averages show signs of upward divergence, and the K-line stands firm on the moving average support and fluctuates upward. In the short term, pay attention to the breakthrough and decline of the 3350 pressure level. The current market's downward momentum has weakened, and the overall market remains volatile. We need to be wary of the risk of short-term adjustments after continuous surges. Be alert to the short-term adjustment risks after continuous highs.
Operation strategy:
Short near the price rebound of 3345, stop loss 3355, profit range: 3330-3320.
Gold volatility intensifies. Waiting for direction?The price of gold fluctuated greatly this week, which means that the end point of sentiment will not disappear so easily for the time being; in the short-term K-line pattern, there are continuous ups and downs. If you want to trade steadily, you can wait and see for a while.
From the hourly chart, the MA5-day and 10-day moving averages cross downward, and the RS indicator hovers around 40.7. This shows that the market trend is weak. The current price has bottomed out near 3310 and rebounded to fluctuate around 3320. The price may continue to decline after a slight rebound.
Today, focus on the long opportunities near 3305 and the pressure position above 3345.
Quaid has always believed that only by insisting on detailed analysis of the market and reducing losses, can we slowly accumulate the principal of the account.
Good luck to everyone.
XAU/USD Bearish Bomb Ready to Explode? (Entry Levels Inside)🏦💰 GOLD HEIST ALERT: XAU/USD Bearish Raid in Progress! (Short Setup Inside) 💰🏦
🚨 Cops Waiting at Resistance? Here's How to Steal Pips & Escape Safely! 🚨
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Using our 🔥Thief Trading Tactics🔥 (a lethal mix of liquidity grabs + institutional order flow + macro traps), we're executing a bearish gold heist on XAU/USD—this is not advice, just a strategic robbery plan for traders who play by their own rules.
📉 THE GOLD VAULT RAID (SHORT ENTRY PLAN)
🎯 Loot Zone: 3280.00 (or escape earlier if bulls fight back)
💣 High-Stakes Play: Neutral trend turning bearish - trap for late buyers
👮♂️ Cop Trap: Where bullish traders get arrested by resistance
🔪 ENTRY RULES:
"Heist Activated!" – Strike when price breaks 3340.00
Sell Stop Orders above MA OR Sell Limit on pullbacks (15-30min TF)
Aggressive? Enter at market but use tighter stops
📌 SET ALERTS! Don't miss the breakdown
🚨 STOP LOSS (Escape Plan):
Thief SL at 3390.00 (4H swing high)
⚠️ Warning: "Ignore this SL? Enjoy your margin call."
🎯 TARGETS:
Main Take-Profit: 3280.00
Scalpers: Ride the bear waves only
🔍 FUNDAMENTAL BACKUP (Why This Heist Works)
Before raiding, check:
✅ COT Data (Are big players dumping gold?)
✅ Real Yields (TIPS vs Gold correlation)
✅ Geopolitical Heat (Safe-haven flows drying up?)
✅ DXY Strength (Dollar crushing commodities?)
🚨 NEWS RISK WARNING
Avoid NFP/CPI/FOMC periods (unless you like volatility torture)
Trailing stops = your get-out-of-jail-free card
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💬 COMMENT: "Short already—or waiting for confirmation?" 👇🔥
Gold continues to fluctuate. Waiting for a trend?Today, gold has been suppressed below the high of 3345, and the hourly line tends to be weak. Looking at the number of Yin and Yang lines on the hourly line during the fluctuation, we can see that the typical Yin line is continuous and the Yang line is few, plus the weak suppression of the previous day, from the rhythm point of view, it is a weak signal.
From the hourly chart, around 3312, this is the 0.618 position of the retracement of the 3295-3337 fluctuation range. The decline is slow during the day, and the 0.618 position has become a support rebound.
And the current trend, like the previous day, may continue to rebound and then fall. At the same time, there was no cyclical decline in the early Asian session. Instead, it fluctuated sideways, bottomed out and rebounded, and then continued to return to the high of the previous day.
Judging from the current market situation, the Asian market bottomed out and rebounded in the morning, reaching a high of around 3343, and then began to fall back, and is currently fluctuating around 3335.
The trend of the European session is very critical, and the focus is on the watershed below 3328. If this position falls below, the price will most likely continue to fall.
Operation strategy:
Short around 3340, stop loss 3350, profit range 3320-3310.
Gold may continue to rebound to 3350-3360If gold can stand above 3330 today, it will stimulate long trading behavior to a certain extent, especially the self-rescue behavior of trapped longs. Gold may continue to rebound and is expected to reach the 3345-3355 area. So there is no need to risk shorting gold near 3330 for the time being; although gold may continue to rebound, it is still under pressure in the 3350-3360-3370 area; and gold is still weak overall, so we can consider shorting gold in the 3350-3360 area and look at the target area of 3325-3315.
The Premium privilege of my account will end on June 26, and it will stop updating here from tomorrow. Friends in the channel have already made a lot of money by following my trading strategy. Friends who have not joined yet can join and receive the latest trading strategies and trading signals as soon as possible to escort your trading!
Gold fluctuates upward. Trend change?Yesterday, the gold daily line closed with a middle-yin candlestick with a lower shadow. The closing price has lost the middle and lower rail positions one after another, and the short-term downward pressure adjustment will continue.
The hourly level shows a bottoming out and rebound, and it rose in the early Asian session, breaking through the pressure resistance of 3328-3332 in the European and US sessions yesterday, but it did not continue the rebound and fell into a narrow range. At present, there is still great resistance above 3340, and it has failed to break through after many attempts, but the hourly line track has not been completely lost.
Pay attention to the 3315 support for long positions, and pay attention to the 3340-3355 short position range for upward movement. For the period of shock, strong support or resistance will inevitably produce inertial puncture behavior, and some errors are normal. We need to pay attention to the market trend at all times and change strategies in time.
Today we need to focus on the response strategies for resistance and support levels, which will determine whether we can achieve profits within the fluctuation range.
Good luck to everyone.
Start going long on goldAlthough gold is under pressure and weak at present, gold still rebounded near 3295 under the influence of yesterday's major negative news, proving that there is still a large amount of buying funds below, limiting the retracement space of gold; and from 3295 to 3335, there is still a rebound space of $40, proving that gold is not extremely weak. Moreover, there is a gap left above, and there is a technical need to rebound to fill the gap;
In addition, yesterday gold fell sharply due to news, and there should be many longs trapped in the market. If gold is relatively stable, there may be self-rescue behavior of the trapped longs, so gold longs still have the opportunity to rebound to 3340-3350. At present, the main focus is on the short-term support area of 3315-3305, and we can moderately consider going long on gold in this area.
Gold fluctuates, 3300 may fall below.Gold fell to 3333 on Tuesday and then rose to around 3358, then began to fall slowly due to resistance, continued to fall in the European session, and fell to around 3295 in the US session, and rebounded in the late trading, rebounding to around 3325, and the daily line closed with a negative line with a lower shadow.
In addition, Israel and Iran both accused each other of violating the agreement, which brought uncertainty to the gold market.
After the sharp drop in gold last week, except for the correction of the cross positive line on Tuesday last week, the daily level has closed five consecutive negative lines since last Wednesday until now, fully demonstrating that the gold price has shown a weak feature of fluctuating downward in recent transactions.
From the technical indicators, the 5-day moving average and the 10-day moving average cross downward, which indicates an important signal that the market trend is weakening in the short term. The current gold price continues to run below the moving average, further verifying the current market situation where shorts dominate.
In terms of resistance, the 5-day moving average is currently around 3350, and the 10-day moving average is around 3370. These two price levels constitute the key resistance range in the upward process of gold prices. As long as the gold price fails to effectively break through this resistance band, it is likely to continue to be weak in the short term. At the support level, pay attention to the 60-day moving average around 3290.
Operation strategy:
Short gold rebounds around 3350, stop loss 3360, profit range 3320-3310.
Go long gold falls back to around 3295, stop loss 3285, profit range 3330-3340.
The market conditions are often not what we ideally want. This is the market, and it is also a form of trading practice.