XAUUSD: Accumulation in process,Waiting for Bullish DistributionHello,
Today, we will analyse the key points of each significant move.
Following the price’s all-time high at $3500, it experienced a sharp decline and failed to maintain that level. A substantial 2400 pips would have resulted in significant losses for many accounts. Initially, it was perceived as a minor correction, with the expectation of further price appreciation. However, this assumption proved incorrect. After reaching an even higher peak, the price invariably undergoes a more substantial correction.
At 3260, substantial bullish volume surged into the market, necessitated by the presence of a fair value gap. Subsequently, the price experienced a decline, reflecting the prevailing bearish trend, which favoured the bears. However, at 3200, a pivotal level representing a discounted price point, bull volume surged. This powerful bullish impulse propelled the price to 3432, ultimately confirming the bullish trend. AB=CD there recurring pattern emerged weekly. When the price reached the 3432 level as a fair value gap, the CD pattern commenced.
AB=CDTheHeyIndeed, we have identified a recurring pattern. It appears to be an equal move in any direction, and it has manifested precisely as anticipated. We were aware that the price would reject at 3120, and it did so accordingly. Currently, the market is in our favour. Upon market opening, it exhibited a positive gap, propelling the price to 3450. However, it subsequently declined, reaching 3384.
Presently, we find ourselves in the accumulation phase, poised for distribution. This distribution is anticipated to be substantial, potentially leading to another record high, potentially reaching 3650.
Moving forward, the price could continue towards our target from its current position. Alternatively, there exists a possibility that it may drain the sell-side liquidity and reverse from 3360-3370.
Our take-profit levels are set at 3450, 3490, 3520, and finally, 3600. When entering the market, it is advisable to employ a short time frame. It is important to note that this analysis is merely our opinion, and market conditions may deviate from expectations.
We extend our best wishes for success and safe trading. If you wish to demonstrate your support, you may consider liking, commenting, or sharing this analysis with others.
Sincerely,
Team Setupsfx_
Xauusdupdates
Will gold continue to rise after a pullback?As for gold: the trend of daily, weekly and monthly cycles has remained unchanged, and the bulls remain unchanged; and the weekly line has started to rise continuously, and there is a high probability that it will gradually break upward; the daily line temporarily maintains 3245-3293 as the two low points of support at the bottom, and 3382-3452 as the two top high points of resistance to form an upward channel. The upper track is currently suppressed. Although Iran and Iran are still fighting fiercely over the weekend, the market has digested a lot, because today's Asian and European sessions did not continue the strong attack, but there was a wave of continuous declines; but this does not mean that it will fall back too much, and risk aversion will still be triggered at any time. Besides, leaving aside the news, the technical form is also bullish, and the highs and lows are gradually rising. The secondary high point was also broken, and there is a high probability of testing 3500 this week;
For today, due to the weakness of the European session and the rebound before and after the US session, pay attention to the 618 resistance 3436 and other pressures to go bearish first, and then continue to choose bullish when the two supports of 3404-3390 below are touched and stabilized; if the price cannot give the support position after 22:00 to the early morning, it is not ruled out that it will stabilize in advance;
Specific operation plan: It is recommended to go long and bullish at 3410, add more positions at 3408, target 3430-3440, stop loss 3400; short near 3443 above, add more positions at 3448, target 3430-3420, stop loss 3455.
XAUUSD Long Setup – Retest of Broken Structure & Safe-Haven FlowGold has pulled back to retest a strong former resistance (now support) zone around $3,385–$3,390. This level aligns with a previous breakout and marks the neckline of an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern. The pair is now showing bullish structure with back-to-back continuation patterns (bull flags), suggesting further upside potential.
Given escalating geopolitical risk (Iran-Israel strikes, Trump-led evacuation urgency), slowing Fed cut expectations, and softening inflation-adjusted yields, gold remains in demand.
🔍 Technical Analysis:
Structure: Higher highs and higher lows maintained.
Support Zone: $3,385–$3,390 (retest zone) – bulls stepping back in.
Targets:
TP1: $3,451
TP2: $3,470
TP3: $3,495 (new local high)
Stop Loss: Below $3,369 (recent low)
Pattern Context: Bull flags continue to form and break bullish – reinforcing trend.
🧠 Fundamental Context (June 17):
Bullish Drivers:
Middle East escalation → safe haven bid surging (Iran missile launches, Israeli retaliation, US political chaos).
Fed on pause → real yields are subdued, favoring non-yielding assets like gold.
Convexity & bond volatility rising → investors hedging with hard assets (confirmed via CME sentiment reports).
Risks:
Sudden peace deal or ceasefire.
Unexpected US CPI spike → reawakens rate hike fears.
📅 Key Events to Watch:
Fed speeches (confirmation of dovish tone)
Any ceasefire or major diplomatic development
Oil movement (energy risk spillovers)
XAUUSD: Analysis June 16Gold has a lot of momentum to increase and could head towards testing the all-time high around 3500 as there are too many risks emerging, from geopolitical developments to interest rate outlook, and tariffs. Major conflicts in the Middle East, Russia - Ukraine, trade war between the US and the rest of the world, ... are all sudden risk support that makes gold likely to surge in the short term.
Gold, after increasing around 3450 this morning, is currently correcting down. But overall, the uptrend with gold is still solid after breaking the downtrend channel. However, we should avoid buying in strong corrections.
The support area around 3400 will be the ideal place for us to BUY today.
And the resistance area 3440 - 3445 will be where we SELL.
Will gold continue to rise in the new week?Analyzing from the weekly level, the price of gold is supported by the support level of 3258-60. From the mid-line perspective, it is still in the mid-line bull market, and the price will only be under further pressure if it breaks the weekly support. Observing from the daily level, the price broke through the daily resistance again last Wednesday, and continued to soar after the breakthrough. The current price is testing the monthly high, and the subsequent gains and losses of the previous high are the key. At the same time, according to the four-hour level, as time goes by, we need to pay attention to the support of 3413-3407. This position is the key watershed of the short-term trend. At the same time, according to the one-hour level, the price has a short-term downward adjustment, so don't chase more for the time being, and focus on the subsequent retracement to the four-hour support before further rising. Short-term low-to-long thinking, focus on highs after pulling up.
Gold price falls back and continues to go longFrom the 4-hour market analysis, the support below is around 3408-10, and the short-term bullish strong dividing line moves up to the 3388-93 level. The daily level stabilizes above this position and continues to maintain the same low-long rhythm. Short positions against the trend need to be cautious. There is a high probability that the short-term will continue to rush up to test the previous high.
Gold operation strategy:
Gold falls back to 3408-10 and goes long. Fall back to 3388-95 and add more positions. Stop loss 3384, target 3445-3450, and continue to hold if it breaks;
Gold intraday trading strategyToday's technical trend, from the hourly line, it opened slightly higher and hit a high point. The market was resistant to declines and rose in steps; the stochastic indicator on the 4-hour line continued to form a golden cross, which is a main long signal; in terms of form, the continuous positive and broken positive slowly rose, which is a main long signal; the sideways support is the support position of 3425-3428; it is recommended to follow the trend; refer to the retracement support; the upper pressure position is 3488-93; the stochastic indicator in the daily K-line formed a golden cross, which is a main long signal; in terms of form, the continuous positive rise is the main long signal; the upper track of BOLL temporarily stabilized, and the daily K-line is mainly a bullish signal; and in terms of form, the 3488-93 line is not a high point; the stochastic indicator in the weekly K-line formed a golden cross, which is a main long signal; in terms of form, the big positive line rose for the second time. In summary, today's thinking is mainly to continue to rise, and the pullback is a chance to go long!
From the 4-hour analysis, the short-term support below is 3425-28, and the key support below is around the recent top and bottom conversion position of 3375-80. The intraday retracement relies on this position to continue to be bullish. Next week, we will focus on the suppression of 3488-93. The daily level continues to maintain the same rhythm of retracement and long positions. Short positions against the trend need to be cautious.
Gold operation strategy:
Gold retracement 3425-28 line long, stop loss 3314, target 3488-3490 line, continue to hold if broken;
XAUUSD Bouncing back to 3450?3380.27, 3383.94 and 3386.08 three daily consecutively candlestick patter with continuted series of higher low formed the daily support. Previous daily candle just closed at support with an ATR of 1.1ATR, which is quite large in the opposite direction of the major trend while the price is trading above 10ema in the daily.
In 4h there is also 3 ATR ( overall) bearish move is spotted giving a high probability for this market to bounce back to the daily resistance to the major direction of the trend.
We have a buy position at this level and will keep you posted for more updates!
After breaking KEY DAY yesterday, it is very likely ATH in weekGold prices are being directly affected by the Israel-Iran tensions, the risk of trade conflicts due to the new US tariff policy, and concerns about slowing global economic growth. However, gold prices suddenly fell in the context of improving risk appetite of investors as they get used to the "new normal".
Daniel Pavilonis, senior commodities broker at RJO Futures, commented that if this rally starts to lose momentum, it could be a double top pattern for gold. Giving advice to investors, according to Mr. Pavilonis, they should start considering reducing their gold position at this time if they missed the opportunity to take profits at $3,509. When gold is peaking, investors see other markets moving higher, such as silver, platinum and palladium.
Best regards, StarrOne !!!
XAUUSD: The beginning of range trading.Last week, I perfectly predicted the sharp rise in the market. At the beginning of this week, XAUUSD reached a high of 3451, which is the front pressure position. Due to the cooling of risk aversion in the international market, the New York market fell back to 3373 on Monday.
XAUUSD did experience a typical "news-driven callback", and the analysis of technical and fundamental aspects is very critical. The following is a professional analysis and operation suggestions for the current market:
Key points and technical structure
1. Pressure level: 3450 area
- The previous high pressure is effective. This is the resonance resistance area of the upper track of the daily level channel + Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level, and the demand for long profit-taking is concentrated.
2. Support level: 3370-3380 area
- Currently falling back to 3373, here is:
- 50-day moving average dynamic support
- 4-hour chart previous low level support platform
- Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level
- If the daily closing is above 3380, the technical structure is still a healthy correction.
News-driven logic
- Negative factors:
Geopolitical situation and peace talks ➜ Risk aversion cools down ➜ Gold's attractiveness as a safe-haven asset decreases.
- Potential risks:
The progress of peace talks may be repeated (such as the situation between Israel and Hamas and Russia and Ukraine). If the negotiations fail, safe-haven buying will return quickly. Need to keep an eye on news sources.
Key signals for long-short game
Long signal: long lower shadow candlestick appears in 3370 area, US dollar index (DXY) falls below 105.0
Short signal: rebound fails to break through 3400 integer mark, US bond yield rises above 4.3%
Trading strategy suggestion
- *Long order opportunity*: 3370-3380 light position to try long, stop loss 3355 (below the previous low), target 3400/3420.
- *Short order opportunity*: 3415-3425 to arrange short orders in batches, stop loss 3440, target 3390.
2: Break down
- Trigger condition: daily closing price <3365
The callback is upgraded to a deep correction
- Target: 3340→ 3300 (psychological barrier + trend line support)
- Operation: Chasing short needs to wait for a rebound to around 3400, stop loss 3420.
3: Restart the rise (probability 10%)
- Trigger condition: Break through 3440 and stand firm for 1 hour
- Possible driving force: Geopolitical conflict escalates/Fed rate cut expectations rise
- Target: 3480 (historical high psychological resistance) → 3500
- Operation: After breaking through 3440, step back to 3425 to chase longs, stop loss 3405.
Key event risks this week
1. Wednesday: US May CPI data (core CPI expected to be 3.5%)
- If data > expectations: expectations of rate hikes rise → bearish for gold
- If data < expectations: expectations of rate cuts come earlier → bullish for gold
2. Thursday: Fed interest rate decision + Powell press conference
- Pay attention to the dot plot's hints on the number of rate cuts in 2024 (current market pricing is about 2 times)
3. Geopolitical headlines: progress in the Iran nuclear agreement, black swan risks in the French election
Position management principles
1. Total risk exposure ≤ 5% of account net value
2. Reduce positions by 50% 3 hours before key events (avoid instantaneous fluctuations in CPI/FOMC)
3. Breakout strategy stop loss setting: 15 points outside the previous high/low to prevent burrs
Conclusion: The effectiveness of the current 3373 support needs to be verified by Wednesday's CPI data. It is recommended that the London market operate in the 3370-3420 range and reduce positions before the US market to wait for data guidance. If you hold long positions, 3380 is the last line of defense; if you hold short positions, consider taking profits in batches above 3400. The medium-term bullish trend of gold has not been broken, but the risk aversion premium needs to be digested in the short term.
If you need a more detailed entry point analysis or position management to solve your long-term loss problem, please feel free to tell me your trading cycle and risk preference, and I will provide you with a customized strategy.
I think these 2 scenarios can happen for gold to reach new ATHGold supported by Israel-Iran conflict, US intervention in focus
Gold's sharp rise came late last week after Israel struck multiple targets in Iran, including Tehran's nuclear facilities.
The attack sparked fierce retaliation from Iran, which launched a barrage of missiles at key Israeli targets, including the financial capital Tel Aviv. Some of the Iranian missiles were also seen penetrating Israel's "Iron Dome" defense system.
What do you think?
Best regards, StarrOne !!!
XAU/USD 1H Technical Breakdown – Structure Shift in ProgressThis chart captures a clear market structure transition on Gold’s 1-hour timeframe, highlighting a shift from bullish momentum to a potential bearish phase.
🔍 Key Observations:
Uptrend Structure:
Price had been respecting a bullish channel with a sequence of Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL), showing strong bullish momentum.
Break of Structure (BOS):
The bullish market structure was invalidated when price broke below the most recent Higher Low, marking a Break of Structure (BOS). This signals the end of the uptrend and beginning of possible bearish control.
CHoCH (Change of Character):
Before the BOS, price failed to make a new HH and began forming lower highs — this internal shift hinted at weakness and can be considered the Change of Character, occurring subtly before the BOS.
Bearish Projection:
Price is expected to retest the broken structure (potential lower high formation) and continue dropping toward the demand zone (green box) around $3,330 - $3,340.
Supply Zone Above:
The upper green zone marks a supply region, from where the bearish rejection initiated, reinforcing the bearish bias.
✅ Conclusion:
This is a textbook example of a trend reversal setup:
CHoCH ➤ BOS ➤ Pullback ➤ Continuation.
Traders may watch for short opportunities after a bearish retest, with the green demand zone below as a potential take-profit area.
Gold (XAUUSD) – Demand Zone Holding, Silver Leading BreakoutGold has respected its demand zone near $3,367–$3,382 and is attempting to bounce higher. Importantly, Silver (XAGUSD in pink overlay) is leading the upside move, having broken out cleanly above $37.00 and still climbing. This confirms the bullish momentum across precious metals.
Geopolitical tensions, dovish Fed commentary, and risk-off market conditions continue to favor a move toward $3,451, $3,471, and possibly $3,495.
🔍 Technical Breakdown (4H)
Support Zone: $3,367–$3,382 (retest of broken resistance)
Bullish Structure: Rising lows, trendline holds, and higher timeframe support remains intact
Projected Targets:
🎯 TP1: $3,451 (recent high)
🎯 TP2: $3,471 (key extension)
🎯 TP3: $3,495 (top of range)
Stop Loss: Below $3,351 (invalidates demand structure)
🪙 Silver (XAGUSD) Overlay Insight:
Currently at $37.11+, showing leadership in the breakout.
Suggests gold will likely follow through — watch for Gold catching up.
🧠 Macro & Fundamental Context (June 17)
Bullish Drivers:
🔥 Ongoing Middle East war escalation (Iran-Israel, US troop buildup)
🏦 Dovish Fed tone, soft retail sales, rate cuts expected from Sept
🧾 Silver strength confirming demand across metals
Risks:
☮️ Unexpected ceasefire headlines could cause knee-jerk pullbacks
📈 Hot inflation data or hawkish Fed rhetoric could pressure upside
📅 Key Events to Watch:
FOMC members' speeches this week
US Core PCE inflation print
War headline velocity — particularly involving shipping or direct US-Iran confrontation
🧭 Strategy Suggestion:
Tactical Buy on Rejection Wick from current demand zone
Watch Silver momentum — if it breaks $37.50+, gold likely catches up fast
Consider scaling out around $3,451–$3,471 with final target near $3,495
Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Technical Outlook-17 June 2025Gold’s 4-hour chart shows a clear uptrend: price is making higher highs and higher lows, trading above key moving averages and an upward trendline
Analyst ManiMarkets notes “a remarkably robust and sustained uptrend… printing higher highs and higher lows” since late 2024. The nearest major hurdle is around the $3,500 all-time high.
The current structure remains bullish: we have not seen a sustained break of the uptrend, so the overall bias is bullish. In Smart-Money terms, recent price action shows no bearish break of structure on 4H (no BOS), and price is simply consolidating near highs – a bullish sign.
Key zones to watch:
Demand/Order Block (~$3,374–3,380): Around $3,375 is a swing-low and past demand area. It lines up with the 4H EMA50 and 1H EMA200, a classical support confluence.
A strong bullish “order block” (heavy buying zone) sits here – a typical smart-money support area.
Pivot Point (~$3,389): Using the classic pivot formula
On the recent 4H range gives Pivot ≈ 3,389. This acts as a short-term balance point.
Resistance (≈$3,400–3,405): Gold has multiple prior highs around $3,400–3,405 (e.g. the overnight high ~$3,405 and the last swing high ~$3,405) which have been repeatedly tested. Traders are watching a break above ~$3,405 for follow-through. (A recent idea noted gold “bounced off support” near $3,390 and is “looking for a clean sweep of the highs at 3405”.)
Major Resistance ($3,500): The all-time peak around $3,500 is a big psychological barrier.
We expect stiff supply if price approaches 3,500.
Using these levels, the pivot-based support and resistance on the 4H chart are:
Pivot Point: ~$3,389
R1: ~$3,406 (Pivot + 1×range)
R2: ~$3,421 (Pivot + 2×range)
R3: ~$3,437 (Pivot + 3×range)
S1: ~$3,374 (Pivot – 1×range)
S2: ~$3,357 (Pivot – 2×range)
S3: ~$3,342 (Pivot – 3×range)
(These are rough levels using the standard formula on the last 4H high/low.)
Beyond numbers, price-action is key: we look for bullish patterns at support (e.g. bull-engulfing or pin-bar at ~$3,375–3,380) and cautious action near resistance. A brief “liquidity grab” happened at the $3,375 area recently (price wiggled below and then shot back up), which in Smart-Money jargon sweeps stops.
That suggests larger players may have been absorbing buying interest. In short, the tape looks healthy for bulls unless $3,375 breaks decisively. A break of the $3,400–3,405 highs would be a bullish BOS (break of structure), targeting the next supply zone.
Trade Setups (1H, Aligned with Bullish Bias)
Below are three high-probability long setups on the 1-hour chart (in line with the 4H uptrend).
Each is sized for a ~$10 stop from the entry zone.
Buy near $3,374–3,380 (Demand Zone):
Entry: $3,374–3,380 area (around Pivot S1 and the recent swing low).
Direction: Buy.
Stop: ~$3,364 (just below this zone, ~$10 lower).
Targets: ~$3,402 (near Pivot R1/previous high), and then ~$3,420 (around next resistance).
Reason: This zone is a confluence of support – it was a recent 4H low and aligns with EMAs (1H EMA200/4H EMA50)
It acts like a “bull order block” where buyers stepped in
A strong bounce from here keeps the bullish structure intact.
Trigger: Look for a bullish reversal candle on 1H (e.g. an engulfing or pin-bar) forming near $3,375. This confirms rejection of lower prices and signals a buy setup.
Chart: Example 1H gold chart. Blue shaded area marks the ~$3,374–3,380 buy zone (Pivot S1/EMA support). A bullish reversal candle here would trigger a long entry, targeting $3,402 then $3,420.
Buy break-&-retest at ~$3,402–3,408:
Entry: After a close above ~$3,405, look to buy on a pullback into $3,402–3,408 (just above the old high).
Direction: Buy.
Stop: ~$3,392 (about $10 below the entry zone).
Targets: ~$3,430 (next swing high) and ~$3,450 (round level/upper channel).
Reason: A decisive move above ~$3,405 would mark a BOS (break of the prior high), shifting structure higher. That resistance then becomes support on a retest. This is a classic “breakout retest” entry. (As noted, highs around 3,405 have been tested repeatedly, so breaking them signals strength.)
Trigger: Wait for a 1H candlestick to close firmly above 3,405, then buy on the next pullback into the $3,402–3,408 range with a bullish candle or dip-buy signal.
Buy on pullback to ~$3,385–3,390 (minor higher low):
Entry: $3,385–3,390 if price dips but holds above the 4H pivot (~3,389).
Direction: Buy.
Stop: ~$3,375 (below the entry zone, about $10 down).
Targets: ~$3,420 and ~$3,450 (same as above levels).
Reason: If the market skips Setup 1 and 2, any 1H pullback that still holds above the pivot (creating a higher-low) is another opportunity. Buying this higher-low keeps us aligned with the 4H uptrend. Essentially, we allow price to re-test the pivot area as new demand.
Trigger: A bullish reversal pattern on 1H in the $3,385–3,390 area (for example, a hammer or bullish engulfing) would mark a higher-low and signal a long entry.
Each setup has a tight stop (~$10) just beyond the support zone, and logical profit targets at nearby resistance levels. All assume the 4H trend stays intact. If support fails (e.g. a clean break under $3,374), be ready to reassess.
Takeaway: Gold’s 4H trend is bullish, so focus on buying dips into identified support zones (not shorting). Use tight stops beyond those zones and aim for the next resistance. In practice, that means looking to go long around ~$3,375–3,380 and ~$3,405 (on a clean breakout), riding any bullish continuation toward $3,430–$3,450, while managing risk at each step.
Range-bound Trading amid Geopolitical and Policy GamesGold Market Brief: Range Bound Trading Amid Geopolitical and Policy Games
I. Core Drivers
- Geopolitical Hedge Cooling: Iran's signal to restart nuclear talks has weakened risk aversion, triggering intraday gold pullbacks, though Middle East tensions remain a wild card.
- Fed Policy Expectations: The Fed kept rates unchanged this week, with Powell's "data-dependent" stance fueling 60% odds of a September rate cut. Dovish signals may push gold above $3,400, while hawkish cues could drag it to $3,350.
II. Key Technical Levels
Supports:
- $3,380: 4-hour MA30 + June 17 low ($3,375.5), bolstered by the ascending channel lower 轨 (lower trendline).
- $3,350: Daily MA10 + June 12 congestion zone, a psychological pivot for policy betting.
Resistances:
- $3,400: Intraday high + 4-hour MA10 + descending trendline forming "triple resistance".
- $3,450: June 13 high converging with weekly Fibonacci 61.8% retracement ($3,448).
III. Short-term Outlook & Focus Points
- Range-bound Trend: Gold likely to oscillate between $3,350-$3,450, with breakthroughs hinging on escalated geopolitics or stronger rate cut bets.
- Catalyst Events: Monitor June 19 Fed meeting, June 21 CPI data, and Middle East developments as potential range breakers.
XAU/USD Trading Strategy for Today
buy@3370-3380
tp:3395-3405
sell@3395-3405
tp:3385-3375
I am committed to sharing trading signals every day. Among them, real-time signals will be flexibly pushed according to market dynamics. All the signals sent out last week accurately matched the market trends, helping numerous traders achieve substantial profits. Regardless of your previous investment performance, I believe that with the support of my professional strategies and timely signals, I will surely be able to assist you in breaking through investment bottlenecks and achieving new breakthroughs in the trading field.
Forward-looking trading, focus on 3380 support📰 Impact of news:
1. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East
2. Iran nuclear talks
3. Retail sales data
📈 Market analysis:
Gold prices are currently in a narrow range of fluctuations again, and the signal of Iran restarting nuclear negotiations has weakened risk aversion, triggering a correction in gold prices during the session, but tensions in the Middle East remain an uncertain factor. In the short term, we still need to focus on the breakthrough of the 3380 support line. If the 3380 support line is strong, we can still maintain a long trading idea in the short term and look to 3400. On the contrary, once it falls below, it is expected to look to the 3350 line. Pay attention to the breakthrough of 3400 on the upside. If the Asian and European sessions cannot effectively break through this short-term resistance, gold will continue to fluctuate.
🏅 Trading strategies:
BUY 3380-3370
TP 3390-3400-3450
SELL 3400-3390
TP 3380-3370-3350
If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
OANDA:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD
Gold on the Rise! – Bullish Setup in Focus The chart shows a repeating consolidation‑then‑breakout pattern, with Gold forming ascending swing structures, consolidating in rectangles (green), then riding higher along a rising trendline (purple). Price has just bounced off that trendline again, signaling a possible new leg up—potentially targeting the upper range near $3,448–3,450. A clear breakout above that level could open the door toward $3,500+.
📍 Trading Plan
🎯 Entry
Long on breakout above recent consolidation highs (~$3,440–3,448).
Alternatively, buy the dip near the purple trendline (~$3,385–3,390), with confirmation (hammer candle, bounce).
🛑 Stop‑Loss
For breakout: just below the top of the rectangle consolidation (~$3,389).
For trendline entry: slightly below recent swing low (~$3,358–3,360).
🎯 Profit Targets
Primary: upper rectangle level (~$3,448–3,450).
Extension: historic all‑time high region (~$3,500) → next major zone.
🎥 Path
Potential minor pullback toward trendline.
Bounce establishes support.
Surge toward top of range.
Breakout with trend continuation to new highs.
📊 Trade Risk & Reward
Target ~60–100 pts above entry, stop ~50 pts below → ideal Risk:Reward ≥ 1:1.2.
📌 Key Levels to Monitor
Level Role
$3,360 Swift dip support (green base line)
$3,390–3,400 Trendline confluence zone
$3,440–3,450 Breakout area & top of rectangle
$3,500 Next major resistance/all‑time high
🧭 Market Context & Drivers
Broad uptrend remains intact amid geopolitical tensions, especially the Israel–Iran situation, which continues to support safe-haven flows
Markets are positioning ahead of Fed’s June 18 decision; dovish signals could fuel continuation toward new highs (~$3,500+)
.
Technical structure reflects bullish momentum—ascending wedge patterns with shallow dips and strong trendline bounces
.
✅ Summary
Bias: Bullish – uptrend intact.
Strategy: Go long on dip near trendline or on breakout above $3,445.
Stop‑Loss: Just below last swing low ($3,360).
Targets:
Near-term: $3,448–3,450
Medium-term: $3,500+
gold on buy#XAUUSD price holds on 3398 for buy continuation.
Above 3398 will take bullish which will breakout 3406, entry 3398, SL 3384, TP 3406-3425.
If price breakout 3406 and H1 closes above there then bullish will continue till 3425, but reverse and closure below 3402 down will drop the price more.
Gold trend analysis and operation ideasGold, the price has rebounded from the previous high of 3500 to 3120 in this round. After continuous rise, it fell under pressure at 3452 on Monday due to the decline of market risk aversion; the article emphasizes that there is still room for the weekly support MA5-3360 below, and it can be bearish; the actual rebound during the day was 3403 and then fell back to 3373, and now reported 3383, which is in line with expectations;
The short structure of the 2H chart is obvious, the short-term resistance in the evening is 3386-3390, and the strong resistance is 3396; the short-term support is 3373, the strong support is 3360, and the break is expected to fall to 3340;
Strategy 1: Sell near 3386, SL3400, TP3360; Hold after break;
6/17 Gold Analysis and Trading SignalsGood morning!
Yesterday, gold opened with a gap-up and surged to around 3451, but failed to sustain above key resistance. After another failed attempt to break higher, prices gradually turned lower and finally broke below 3400, finding short-term support near 3382.
The primary driver of this decline was a waning of geopolitical risk sentiment, which had previously fueled the rally. Additionally, the market is now pricing in expectations that the Fed will keep rates unchanged, a factor that was likely preemptively reflected in price.
🔍 Fundamental Focus:
Today’s U.S. session will feature a key news release, which may prove decisive for gold’s next directional move. With yesterday’s advance pullback, market dynamics are likely to be more volatile today. We recommend caution, especially ahead of the announcement.
📉 Technical View:
Gold is currently in a post-decline consolidation phase.
The main resistance lies between 3430–3450, while 3415 on the 30-minute chart also presents a short-term cap.
For those entering long positions, target zones should remain conservative, ideally around 3412–3418, and then be adjusted depending on volume momentum and breakout structure.
📊 Weekly Structure Outlook:
The weekly chart shows that gold is at a key trend inflection point.
If no additional bullish catalysts emerge, the market is likely to develop into a bearish consolidation, with the next major downside target around 3200.
📌 Trading Plan (For VIP):
✅ Sell Zone: 3436–3466
✅ Buy Zone: 3347–3323
✅ Flexible Trade Zones: 3428 / 3415 / 3403 / 3392 / 3378 / 3362 / 3354
Fed Rate Decision May Trigger a Decline in Gold PricesDespite heightened tensions in the Middle East providing safe-haven support, gold failed to break through the 3450–3455 resistance zone today and instead pulled back to the 3400–3386 support area.
This decline was mainly driven by two factors:
Iran expressed willingness to resume nuclear talks, easing geopolitical tensions and weakening safe-haven demand.
Growing expectations that the Fed will keep rates unchanged this week strengthened the DXY, reducing gold's appeal.
That said, inflation concerns persist, offering medium-term support to gold. On the technical front, the 3378–3340 consolidation zone may serve as secondary support, while stronger trend support lies in the 3310–3289 range—a level that may only be tested under extreme bearish conditions.
For now, the primary support to watch is 3386–3373, with short-term rebound resistance around 3400–3420.
Trading Suggestion:
Ahead of the Fed’s rate decision tomorrow, consider buying on dips, as today’s decline may lead to a technical rebound. Then reassess the market’s response to key support and resistance levels to determine further action.
XAU/USD 30-Min Outlook: Support Bounce Targeting $3,449Here's a clear and concise description based on your updated chart analysis for XAU/USD (Gold Spot) on the 30-minute timeframe:
---
📊 XAU/USD 30-Min Analysis
Support Trendline: Price is respecting a downward-sloping support trendline, suggesting a possible bullish reversal setup.
Support Areas:
First support zone marked around $3,367.825, showing a historical bounce area.
Secondary support at $3,388.370, which is being retested and holding currently.
Price Action:
Price has formed higher lows along the support trendline.
Current bounce from support suggests bullish strength.
Target Zone:
Immediate resistance/target marked at $3,449.485.
A potential bullish breakout could take price toward this zone if the price stays above the support levels.
Volume Profile:
Thin volume area above current price means less resistance, supporting the bullish move toward the yellow zone.
---
🟢 Bias: Bullish (if support holds)
⚠️ Invalidation: Break below $3,367.825 with strong volume would invalidate the bullish scenario.
Let me know if you want a caption, Telegram post version, or translation (e.g., Urdu).