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XAUUSD: Buy or sell now?Continuously update good transactions. Let members make rich profits. How to trade XAUUSD today? Reference suggestions are as follows: If it retreats to the range of 3318-3328, consider buying. Target 3345-3360 If it falls below 3310, chase the shorts and choose to sell. Target 3280-3265 For reference only. Do not trade independently. If you need a more detailed entry point analysis or position management solution, please feel free to tell me your trading cycle and risk appetite, and I will provide you with a customized strategy.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Ludvig_Band_King
XAUUSD: Buy or sell now?The price of XAUUSD has come to the position near 3345 again. The pressure at this position is very controversial. We need to observe. If this position is stable. Then we need to pay attention to the target of 3360-3385. If it is unstable, we will short and wait for the TP of 3320, which still needs to be emphasized. If you are not sure how to trade. Remember to leave us a message. We will lead you to make better and more accurate transactions, expand profits or recover losses. Do not trade independently. Create greater losses. Remember to continue to pay attention to the core trading strategy updates of swing trading.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ludvig_Band_King
XAUUSD:Go long, go long "Israel announced a strike on Iran" broke out the news, gold and crude oil in the Asian session soared. Again help us recently do long ideas, too late to explain so much, the follow-up trading ideas are still long after the pullback. After 3403 broke through has been converted into strong support, short - term to 3415-20 to do more. Trading Strategy: BUY@3415-20 TP:3440-50 ↓↓↓ More detailed strategies and trading will be notified here ↗↗↗ ↓↓↓ Keep updated, come to "get" ↗↗↗
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Boooob_
Oil prices soar after Israel attacks IranIsrael launched an airstrike on Iran in the early hours of Friday (June 13), targeting its nuclear facilities, ballistic missile factories and senior military commanders, once again escalating tensions in the region. The head of Iran's Revolutionary Guard was reportedly killed, and the military leader was not the only target. Six Iranian nuclear scientists were also killed in the attack. Iran has responded by launching more than 100 drones, some of which may have been intercepted by Israel's "Iron Dome" air defense system. The attack came as the United States and Iran were negotiating a new deal that could have allowed Iran to maintain a limited nuclear program in exchange for reduced sanctions on its oil exports. The next round of talks, originally scheduled for Sunday, has been canceled by Iran, although the United States claims that it was not involved in the night attack. Crude oil futures give up some early gains Oil prices soared after news of the attack broke. WTI and Brent crude futures initially jumped more than 10% before retreating, narrowing gains to nearly 6% during European trading hours. While there are no signs that Israel attacked any Iranian oil facilities, this major escalation has the potential to turn into something more nasty, such as a wider and more prolonged regional conflict. At the very least, the recent nuclear deal has been put on hold, which provides a floor for oil prices even if tensions ease in the coming days. Dollar rebounds from three-year low Safe haven assets, including the battered dollar, also rose, while stocks fell sharply. The dollar regained some of its appeal today and rebounded as geopolitical risks intensified. The dollar outperformed other safe haven currencies, including the yen and Swiss franc, despite rising expectations of a Fed rate cut after weak U.S. CPI and PPI data this week. However, the dollar may still face pressure in the long run: the trade war is not going to end in the short term, while Trump has again raised the possibility of intervening in Fed policy. On Thursday, Trump expressed his dissatisfaction with the government's annual $600 billion debt interest payments due to high interest rates, saying "I may have to take some coercive measures." His cryptic comments heightened market anxiety, coming a day after he said on Wednesday that countries would unilaterally set tariffs if no trade deal was reached by the July 9 deadline. Later today, the focus will turn to the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer confidence survey. Ahead of the data, the dollar rose about 0.3% against a basket of currencies, recovering from a more than three-year low hit yesterday. Yen edged higher ahead of Bank of Japan decision The yen was also positive today (except against the dollar), further boosted by a Bloomberg report that Bank of Japan officials expect inflation to be slightly higher than expected this year, even though markets expect no rate hike at next week's meeting. The June decision is likely to focus on the Bank of Japan's bond-buying program as markets worry that long-term yields have risen too quickly. But any slowdown in the reduction of bond purchases is likely to be accompanied by a more hawkish outlook on short-term rates. Gold shines as stocks avoid a sharp sell-off Meanwhile, gold prices broke through the $3,400 mark, heading towards April's all-time high of $3,500. If military tensions between Israel and Iran escalate further, the precious metal could well hit new records. In addition, heightened doubts about whether the U.S. can sign new trade deals with major trading partners in time for the next deadline also provide significant support for gold prices in the short term. The only surprise is that despite all the uncertainty, stock markets have been relatively resilient: Asian stocks fell less than 1% on Friday, while European stocks and U.S. futures are currently down 1%-1.5%. FX:XAUUSD CMCMARKETS:GOLD VELOCITY:GOLD VANTAGE:XAUUSD ACTIVTRADES:GOLD OANDA:XAUUSD
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Charlie_Analyst
1
As conflict escalates, gold is cautiously long📰 Impact of news: 1. The geopolitical situation between Israel and Iran deteriorates 📈 Market analysis: The worsening geopolitical situation caused a surge in gold prices. The intraday short-term support points of 3420, 3402, and 3380 will all become key support for testing bulls. If the European session is strong, 3420 cannot be lost. If it falls back and loses, it will move closer to the top and bottom conversion position of 3402. If you go long later, you must pay attention to the weakening of the upward momentum. If the European session continues to break the high of 3440, then the US session can be seen around 3468-3493. If the upward momentum in the European session weakens, we need to watch out for a short-selling counterattack and a sharp decline. The geopolitical situation is unstable. Bros must strictly control SL when trading independently. 🏅 Trading strategies: BUY 3420-3402-3380 TP 3390-3400-3420-3460-3490 If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices. OANDA:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AllenBoswell-2
GOLD SPOT (XAU/USD) 4H Analysis – Bullish Momentum Breakout🔔 GOLD SPOT (XAU/USD) 4H Analysis – Bullish Momentum Breakout 💥📈 📊 Overview: Gold has confirmed a strong bullish breakout from the consolidation zone, driven by sustained support and recent upward pressure. After rebounding from the MAIN SUPPORT zone around $3,200, price action has surged and successfully touched the 1st Take Profit (TP1) zone at $3,429. 🔍 Key Levels: 🟩 Main Support: $3,200 zone — held firm and acted as a launchpad for the bullish reversal. 📌 1st TP (Touched): $3,429 — resistance level has been tested and price is currently hovering near it. 🎯 Next Target (TP2): $3,504 — price is expected to approach this zone as bullish momentum continues. 📈 Technical Outlook: Price structure shows a clear higher low formation followed by a strong impulse breakout. Current momentum suggests bulls are in control, with volume and volatility increasing on the upward leg. As long as the price remains above the $3,366 short-term support, the bias remains bullish. 🛑 Risk Note: Watch for possible rejection near TP2. A failure to hold above $3,366 may trigger a pullback to retest lower zones. ✅ Conclusion: The bullish continuation scenario remains valid with potential to hit the $3,504 mark. Traders may look for long opportunities on pullbacks while maintaining tight risk management. 🔐📊
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by VikingFx-Community
6
GOLD Technical analysis.This chart describes a bullish trade setup on Gold (XAU/USD) on the 1-hour timeframe. Analysis: Entry Zone: Price is expected to retrace down into the demand zone (around 3360.79) before moving up. Support Area: The green zone marks a bullish order block or demand zone where buyers previously stepped in. Target: If price respects the demand zone, the projected target is near 3500.00. Stop Loss: Placed below the demand zone, around 3337.19, ensuring a favorable risk-reward ratio. Trade Plan Summary: Wait for the price to tap into the demand zone before entering a buy trade, targeting the next liquidity area near $3500. If price fails to hold that zone, the trade idea becomes invalid.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDLong
by mia211wic9
6/13 Gold Analysis and Trading SignalsGood morning, everyone! Gold rallied to around $3399 during yesterday’s session, accurately reaching our preset sell zone at 3385–3403. Since then, the market has started pulling back, and today’s opening shows signs of accelerated downside movement. However, there are several strong support zones below, with immediate focus on 3378–3368, and further support around 3352–3343. 📉 Technical Outlook: The current price action suggests the potential formation of a Head and Shoulders pattern. If confirmed, this could trigger a deeper correction towards 3340–3330. A break of these levels would significantly weaken the current bullish structure and open further downside risk. 🌍 Fundamental Drivers: Today’s inflation-related data releases may add significant volatility; Additionally, stay alert to any developments in the Middle East geopolitical situation, which could quickly shift market sentiment toward risk-off if escalations occur. 📌 Today’s Trading Recommendations: ✅ Sell Zone: 3410–3420 ✅ Buy Zone: 3338–3326 🔄 Intraday Key Reaction Levels: 3403 / 3378 / 3362 / 3355 / 3343 🔒 Recommendation: Market is at a technically sensitive zone. Consider entering positions in batches and maintain strict risk control.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by China_MsWang
Watch Out for Weekly-Level ResistanceAs news of Israel's strike on Iran’s nuclear facility continues to spread, a surge in risk-off sentiment has driven noticeable gains across safe-haven assets. The escalation of tensions in the Middle East has clearly become a key trigger for current market sentiment. Should the conflict intensify further, oil and other safe-haven assets may see continued upside; conversely, if tensions ease, the retreat of risk aversion could lead to price corrections. From a technical perspective, gold is currently facing downward pressure from the weekly trendline. If geopolitical tensions persist, gold may potentially rally toward the 3500–3550 range. However, without stronger fundamental support, a significant correction could follow once that level is reached. On the intraday chart, the price has now broken below the middle Bollinger Band on the 30-minute timeframe and is near lower band support around 3413. MACD and moving average alignment suggest there may still be room to test the 3396–3388 trend support zone. The 1-hour chart remains in a consolidation phase, and while a short-term rebound is possible, selling at higher levels appears to be the safer strategy for today. As it is Friday and given the geopolitical uncertainties, the potential for weekend risk is significantly higher. It is recommended to reduce exposure before the market closes. If you choose to hold positions over the weekend, be sure to set appropriate stop-losses to mitigate unexpected developments.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by China_MsWang
The situation in the Middle East has triggered global shock The escalation of tensions in the Middle East, especially Israel's military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, has caused crude oil prices to soar, safe-haven assets such as gold and the Swiss franc have been sought after, while Asian stocks and Wall Street stock index futures have fallen sharply. Global financial markets are experiencing a violent shock caused by a geopolitical storm. The escalation of tensions in the Middle East, especially Israel's military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, has caused crude oil prices to soar, safe-haven assets such as gold and the Swiss franc have been sought after, while Asian stocks and Wall Street stock index futures have fallen sharply. Investors have adjusted their investment strategies against the backdrop of increasing uncertainty, and market sentiment seems to be uneasy. Middle East conflict escalates: Israel's "preemptive strike" has attracted global attention Israel's military action against Iran On Friday (June 13), Israel announced a so-called "preemptive strike" against Iran, targeting Iran's nuclear facilities, ballistic missile factories and military commanders. Israel claimed that the action was aimed at preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons and warned that the military action would last for a long time. In response to possible retaliation from Iran, Israel has declared a state of emergency. U.S. Secretary of State Rubio publicly stated that Israel's action was a unilateral action taken out of self-defense, showing its tough attitude towards the situation in the Middle East. Iran's tough response The Iranian Revolutionary Guard responded quickly and issued a statement saying that Israel would pay a "heavy price" for killing the Revolutionary Guard Commander-in-Chief Salami. This statement further exacerbated market concerns that the situation in the Middle East might get out of control. Analysts pointed out that Iran's possible retaliatory actions, including missile and drone attacks, would further escalate regional tensions and bring more uncertainty to the global economy and energy markets. Crude oil prices soared: supply risks pushed up oil prices Oil prices once soared 14%, hitting a recent high Directly affected by the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, the global crude oil market responded quickly. Brent crude oil futures prices once rose by $8 to $78.47 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate oil prices rose 14% to $77.62 per barrel, the highest since January 21. Market concerns about oil supply disruptions in the Middle East are the main driving force behind the surge in oil prices. Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Bank, pointed out that if geopolitical tensions continue to intensify, crude oil prices may continue to rise. Outlook for the energy market As a key region for global energy supply, any escalation of conflict in the Middle East could lead to disruptions in oil production and transportation. Analysts warn that if Iran retaliates, it could further push up oil prices and even trigger a global energy crisis. This not only poses a challenge to countries that rely on imported energy, but may also increase global inflationary pressures. Safe-haven assets are hot: gold approaches historical highs, Swiss franc and yen strengthen Gold prices approach record highs Against the backdrop of rising risk aversion in the market, gold has become the focus of investors' pursuit. Spot gold prices once rose 1.7% to about $3,444 per ounce, just one step away from the all-time high of $3,500.05 set in April. As a traditional safe-haven asset, gold is often favored when geopolitical and economic uncertainties intensify. Swiss franc and yen appreciate In addition to gold, safe-haven currencies are also sought after by the market. The Swiss franc rose about 0.58% against the U.S. dollar (CHF=EBS) to 0.8072; the yen appreciated 0.4% against the U.S. dollar, but now both have given up their gains due to the rise in the U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar index fell first and then rose, and is now up 0.5% to 98.36, indicating that the market demand for the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset is also increasing. U.S. Treasuries are in demand The U.S. Treasury market also reflects the rising risk aversion. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 1% to 4.31%, a one-month low, indicating that investors prefer to hold low-risk assets in turbulent times. Global stock markets are under pressure: Asian stocks and U.S. stock futures fell sharply Asian stock markets plunged Asian stock markets generally fell on Friday, dragged down by the sharp drop in Wall Street stock index futures. Japan's Nikkei index fell 1.6% at one point, South Korea's benchmark stock index fell 1.7% at one point, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 1% at one point. MooMoo strategist Jessica Amir said that global stock markets have continued to rise since April, and the MSCI global market stock index hit a record high this week, but the market is ready for a correction, and the escalation of the situation in the Middle East is just a catalyst to trigger the decline. US and European stock index futures plummeted US S&P index futures fell 2% at one point, Nasdaq index futures fell 2.1% at one point, and the pan-European STOXX 50 index futures fell 1.6%. Market analysts pointed out that investors tend to cut risk positions before the weekend to cope with the uncertainty that the situation in the Middle East may further deteriorate. Market Outlook: Dual Pressures of Geopolitics and Trade Policy Geopolitical risks continue to ferment Charu Chanana of Saxo Bank pointed out that the escalation of geopolitics has added new uncertainties to the already fragile market sentiment. If the situation in the Middle East continues to deteriorate, crude oil and safe-haven assets will continue to be sought after, and global stock markets may face greater downward pressure. Investors need to pay close attention to Iran's response and Israel's subsequent military actions. Uncertainty in trade policy At the same time, US President Trump's trade policy has also added pressure on the global economy. Tariff barriers and trade restrictions may further weaken global economic growth expectations, and combined with geopolitical risks in the Middle East, they may have a more far-reaching impact on financial markets. Summary: Investment strategies in market turmoil The sudden escalation of the situation in the Middle East has plunged global financial markets into turmoil, with soaring crude oil prices, strengthening safe-haven assets, and sharp declines in stock markets, reflecting investors' high sensitivity to uncertainty. In the coming days, Iran's response and the mediation efforts of the international community will become the focus of market attention. For investors, in a highly volatile market environment, it would be a wise choice to remain cautious, pay attention to safe-haven assets, and closely follow geopolitical developments. At the same time, the trade and energy challenges facing the global economy also remind us that future uncertainties may be far from over. FX:XAUUSD VELOCITY:GOLD ICMARKETS:XAUUSD VELOCITY:GOLD
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Charlie_Analyst
1
Spot gold is expected to test the $3,450 resistance levelSpot gold continued to rise in the Asian session on Friday (June 13), reaching a high of $3,443.18 per ounce, an increase of about 1.57%. Reuters technical analysts pointed out that spot gold is expected to test the resistance level of $3,450 per ounce, breaking through which it may rise to the range of $3,473 to $3,488. The c wave that opened at $3,294 briefly broke through the 86.4% forecast level of $3,429. Currently, the wave is moving towards the 100% forecast level of $3,450. The current rise is classified as a continuation of the previous upward trend that started at $3,245. The support level is at $3,413, and a break below this level may cause gold prices to fall to the range of $3,372 to $3,391. The daily chart shows that gold prices are expected to return to the high of $3,500 on April 22. Depending on how deep the decline is from this high, gold prices could eventually rise to $3,800. FOREXCOM:XAUUSD VELOCITY:GOLD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD CMCMARKETS:GOLDQ2025 OANDA:XAUUSD
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Charlie_Analyst
Middle East Tensions Drive Gold Back to $3,400Today, after pulling back to around $3,340, gold broke through $3,380 and has since fluctuated in a narrow range of $3,370-$3,400. With the Middle East tensions escalating, Iran has stated that even if its current nuclear facilities are damaged, it will continue to build new sites and is determined to rebuild them to safeguard its security. Israel will by no means tolerate this, dimming the hopes of the Trump administration's peace initiative. Short positions are now infeasible. Although rallies to new highs are often followed by pullbacks, the risk of wiping out accounts entirely makes shorting too dangerous. We recommend gradually building long positions near $3,350-$3,370, setting stop-loss orders 10-15 dollars below the entry price to avoid heavy losses from major shifts in the situation. I am committed to sharing trading signals every day. Among them, real-time signals will be flexibly pushed according to market dynamics. All the signals sent out last week accurately matched the market trends, helping numerous traders achieve substantial profits. Regardless of your previous investment performance, I believe that with the support of my professional strategies and timely signals, I will surely be able to assist you in breaking through investment bottlenecks and achieving new breakthroughs in the trading field.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by H_C_02
Fakeout or Takeoff? Gold Retakes 3350 Before NY Close1. Recap of Yesterday's Move Yesterday was a volatile day for Gold. Price initially broke above the key 3340–3350 resistance zone, only to drop back below it—but intriguingly, it closed above it on the New York session. That close is the detail that changes everything. 2. Key Question: Will Gold Stay Above 3400 and Push Toward New ATHs? Let’s split this into two scenarios: ________________________________________ 🟢 Bullish Scenario – Buy the Dip? • The short-term structure is undeniably bullish. • The reclaim of 3340–3350 is not a fakeout, but a clean signal of strength. • If momentum holds, we can expect price to push toward 3405 and then 3435. • As such, the strategy remains: buy dips, targeting those key levels. ________________________________________ 🟡 Long-Term Breakout? Not So Fast • Yes, the higher lows at 3120, 3250, and 3295 suggest that the correction from 3500 may be over. • A clean breakout and stabilization above 3400, ideally near 3430, could signal a path toward a new all-time high. • ❗ However, volatility remains wild, and if geopolitical tensions de-escalate or trade tariffs get resolved, Gold could see a sharp drop of 1500–2000 pips, as part of a broader risk-off unwind. Peace and stability could hurt safe-haven demand. ________________________________________ 📌 Trading Plan • Short-term: Buy dips while above 3340-3350 (ideally on a re-test), aiming for 3405 and 3435. • Long-term: Stay flexible. Wait for confirmation above 3430 before going for the ATH narrative. ________________________________________ 💡 Conclusion Technically, Gold is bullish in both the short and long term. But with global uncertainty in play, don't ignore the fundamentals. Trade the chart, but respect the world around it. 🚀 Disclosure: I am part of TradeNation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDLong
by Mihai_Iacob
15
High-level chasing risk warningObservation of the hourly gold K-line pattern shows that the current price is still in a fluctuating upward channel. Based on this technical feature, if subsequent data is favorable and pushes gold prices further up, it may form a trading opportunity to arrange short orders at a staged high level. It is important to note that although the gold price surged rapidly after the data was released, it has shown a significant first-line resistance effect in the historical trading intensive range of 3400-3410. Considering that the bullish momentum has not yet broken through the technical conditions of this key pressure zone at this stage, the technical correction of the price after the surge is in line with the logic of price behavior. At the specific operational level, it is recommended to adopt a trading strategy of low-long and high-short with the trend. In the short term, it is recommended to establish short orders when the gold price rebounds to the 3405-3410 area Operation strategy: 1. It is recommended to short gold near the rebound of 3405-3410, with a stop loss at 3418 and a target of 3380-3360;
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BarnettWolf
1
ELLIOT WAVEOANDA:XAUUSD 4 HOUR **According to the Elliott Wave theory, the ongoing pattern appears to be a double correction. Wave 3 of {Y} has been completed, and Wave 4 is currently in progress. A potential buying opportunity may arise between the levels of 3360 and 3350. ** **However, if gold breaks below the 3350 level, further downside movement is expected, with the next support zone likely between 3315 and 3297. ** **Furthermore, if gold breaks the critical level of 3250, it may extend its decline toward the 3215–3197 range.**
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ozil17
Gold hits 3400. What is Wall Street betting on?On Thursday (June 12), the U.S. Department of Labor released the Producer Price Index (PPI) for May and the initial jobless claims data for the week ending June 7. The data showed that the annual rate of PPI in May was 2.6%, in line with market expectations, and the previous value was 2.4%; the core PPI monthly rate only increased by 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.3%, and the previous value was -0.4%. The number of initial jobless claims remained unchanged at 248,000, slightly higher than the market expectation of 240,000, and the four-week average rose to 240,200, while the number of continued claims increased sharply by 54,000 to 1.956 million, setting a recent high. These data reflect that the U.S. labor market continues to cool, and inflationary pressures have eased but there are still uncertainties. The market's sensitivity to the Fed's expectations of rate cuts has further increased, coupled with the economic uncertainty caused by tariff remarks, investor sentiment has become cautious. Immediate market reaction: Risk aversion heats up, and the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields are under pressure After the data was released, the financial market reacted quickly, and the dollar index fell 1.02% to 97.63, reflecting market concerns about slowing inflation and a weak labor market. U.S. Treasury yields continued to fall, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling 6.7 basis points to 4.343%, a daily decline of 1.63%, showing investors' cautious attitude towards the economic outlook. Short-term interest rate futures prices rose, and traders further bet on the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this year. The probability of a rate cut at the September 17 meeting rose from 76% before the data was released to nearly 80%. In the stock market, S&P 500 futures fell 0.25%, continuing the previous day's 0.3% drop. Market sentiment was affected by weak labor market data and sudden events in the aviation industry. Boeing's stock price plummeted 7% due to the crash of Air India's 787 Dreamliner, dragging down the performance of the Dow Jones Index. The gold market showed safe-haven appeal. Spot gold broke through $3,390/ounce to $3,390.13/ounce, up 1.05% on the day; the main contract of COMEX gold futures rose 1.97% to $3,410.40/ounce, reflecting the market's rising demand for safe-haven against economic uncertainty. In the foreign exchange market, the pound rose to 1.3600 against the US dollar, up 0.42% on the day. Compared with market expectations before the data was released, the mild performance of the PPI data slightly eased inflation concerns, but the high level of initial jobless claims and the significant increase in the number of continued claims intensified the market's concern about the weak labor market. Before the data was released, some institutions expected the PPI monthly rate to reach 0.2%, while the number of initial claims could fall back to 240,000. The actual data was lower than inflation expectations but higher than employment expectations, and market sentiment shifted from cautious optimism to risk aversion, and the decline in the US dollar and US Treasury yields reflected this shift. Data interpretation: Weak labor market and inflationary pressure coexist From the data details, the annual PPI rate of 2.6% in May was in line with expectations, slightly higher than the previous value of 2.4%, indicating a mild recovery in inflationary pressure on the production side, but the core PPI monthly rate increased by only 0.1%, lower than expected, indicating that the inflation momentum after excluding food, energy and trade was limited. This is consistent with the recent trend of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, suggesting that inflation has stabilized overall, but has not yet fully returned to the Fed's 2% target range. In terms of the labor market, the number of initial unemployment claims has continued to run high, with the four-week average rising to 240,200 and the number of continued claims increasing to 1.956 million, indicating that it is more difficult for the unemployed to find jobs. Although the median unemployment duration has dropped from 10.4 weeks in April to 9.5 weeks in May, there has been no large-scale layoffs in the labor market, but the growth momentum has slowed significantly. Analysts from well-known institutions pointed out that part of the reason for the cooling of the labor market is related to the economic uncertainty caused by tariff rhetoric, and companies tend to hoard labor rather than actively expand. In addition, the White House's recent tightening of immigration restrictions has further compressed the labor supply. The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data indicate that job growth from April 2024 to May 2025 may be overestimated, and Barclays economist Jonathan Millar expects that the benchmark revision in 2025 may reduce job growth by 800,000 to 1.125 million, an average monthly decrease of 65,000 to 95,000. This forecast further reinforces market concerns about an economic slowdown. Institutional and retail views also reflect similar sentiments. Before the data was released, retail investors expected that if the PPI increase was lower than expected and the initial claims data was higher than expected, the Fed would be under more pressure to cut interest rates. After the data was released, the PPI data was moderate and the initial claims data was high. The market's expectations for the Fed's September rate cut were further heated up, and the trend of gold and US Treasury yields has already said it all. Some retail traders believe that both the initial claims data and PPI are weak, the US dollar index fell below 98, and they are bearish on the US dollar in the short term, and gold bulls have opportunities. Compared with the optimistic expectations before the data was released, retail sentiment turned cautious, and some investors began to pay attention to the allocation opportunities of safe-haven assets. Expectations of Fed rate cuts and changes in market sentiment After the data was released, the market's expectations for the Fed's monetary policy changed subtly. Before the data was released, the market's probability of a rate cut at the Fed meeting on July 30 was only 23%, and the probability of a meeting on September 17 was 76%. After the release of PPI and initial claims data, the probability of a rate cut in September rose to nearly 80%, reflecting the market's comprehensive judgment on slowing inflation and a weak labor market. Traders have fully digested the possibility of two rate cuts this year, and the rise in short-term interest rate futures further confirms this expectation. However, tariff rhetoric and potential fiscal stimulus policies (such as the Republican tax cut plan) may put upward pressure on inflation, limiting the Fed's room for rate cuts. From the perspective of market sentiment, before the data was released, investors' expectations for PPI and initial claims data were relatively divided. Some institutions expected that inflation might exceed expectations, while labor market data might improve. The mild performance of actual data dispelled concerns about overheating inflation, but the weakness of employment data exacerbated expectations of an economic slowdown. Outlook for future trends Looking ahead, market trends will remain volatile under the combined influence of the Fed's monetary policy expectations, tariff rhetoric and the global macro environment. In the short term, the mild performance of PPI data provides the Fed with greater policy flexibility, but the weakness of initial and renewal data indicates that the labor market may slow down further, and the probability of a rate cut in September will remain high. However, the upward risk of inflation caused by tariff rhetoric and potential fiscal stimulus policies may limit the extent of rate cuts. The market needs to pay close attention to the July non-farm payrolls data and June CPI data to further confirm the trend. From a historical perspective, the S&P 500 index often shows a volatile pattern against the backdrop of mild inflation data and weak employment data. The current index is 2% lower than the historical high on February 19, and may continue to be under pressure in the short term. Gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset is increasing, and a breakthrough of $3,390/ounce may indicate further upside. The weakness of the US dollar index may continue, but we need to be wary of the support for the US dollar from safe-haven demand caused by tariff policies or geopolitical risks (such as the situation between Russia and Ukraine). In the long run, continued weakness in the labor market may prompt the Fed to adopt a more accommodative policy in the second half of 2025, but the uncertainty of inflationary pressure will keep the policy path cautious. Investors should pay attention to the guidance of subsequent economic data, especially the revision of QCEW data, to judge the true situation of the job market.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Charlie_Analyst
1
Short gold ，it is expected to retreatToday, we accurately seized the trading opportunity of long gold at 3350 according to the trading plan, and hit TP: 3380 in the process of rebounding. We firmly grasped the profit of 300pips in the short-term long trading. At present, gold maintains the trend of continued rise! Now I definitely do not advocate chasing gold in short-term trading. On the contrary, I will actively look for good opportunities for short-term short trading to earn profits from short-term retracement. In the short term, the suppression area I focus on is the 3390-3395 area, because the gold trend is relatively strong during the European session, and the US session should continue. If gold cannot break through this area in the short term, gold will likely usher in a wave of retracement. I think it should not be difficult to test the 3370-3360 area downward; secondly, we must pay attention to the same suppression area as the short-term high of 3402: 3405-3415; if gold touches this area and stagflation occurs, then it may form a secondary high in the short term, thereby hitting the firmness of the bulls' confidence and ushering in a retracement. So next, I will test the gold short trade around the two areas of 3390-3395 and 3405-3415. Relatively speaking, the profit and loss ratio is still very favorable to us! But in the process of trading, we must strictly set up protection, after all, it is a counter-trend trade in the short term!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Steffen_Schade
XAUUSD: Analysis June 12XAUUSD is trading within a short-term rising channel. The market structure remains slightly bullish, with continuous corrections to support zones and then rebounds. The RSI and MACD indicators have not entered the overbought zone, indicating that there is still room for growth if important support zones are held. Buy Zone: 1. 3346 – 3350: If the price does not go deep, this is the "retest MA/trendline" zone in the uptrend channel. You can Buy when there is a clear price reaction in this zone. 2. 3330 – 3325: This is a very clear H1 technical support zone. Price may retrace here before bouncing back. Sell Zone: 3385 - 3390: This is a strong resistance zone on the H1 chart, coinciding with the “Order Block” zone of the sellers. The price may touch and react strongly if there is no breakout momentum.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Stone_Haven
1
The strategy remains unchanged: buy on dipsThe key to the short-term trend of gold lies in the rising channel of the technical aspect. The hourly chart shows that the price is running along the trajectory of gradually rising lows. In this form, the upward momentum is stronger. When the trend is upward, any pullback is a signal of bullish accumulation, which is a good time to enter the market and do more. In a strong market, the pullback range is often limited, and it is more of a short-term bullish pullback to accumulate power. The current key pressure above is in the 3355-3360 first-line range. If the price can break through and stabilize this level, the rising rhythm will most likely accelerate. At this time, the operation does not need to be complicated, just follow the trend: try to go long with a light position when stepping back, and you can cover your position according to the situation after breaking through, so that profits can grow naturally in the continuation of the trend. Remember, the power of the trend is far greater than short-term fluctuations. Instead of worrying about whether it has risen too much, it is better to follow the trend and treat every pullback as an opportunity to confirm the trend. The recommended strategy for gold remains unchanged: go long in the current price range of 3330-3325, stop loss 3320, target 3360
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BarnettWolf