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GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Sep 08 - Sep 12]This week, the international OANDA:XAUUSD price increased sharply, from 3,436 USD/oz to 3,600 USD/oz and closed the week at 3,586 USD/oz. The reason for the sharp increase in gold price this week is due to the conflict between the Trump administration and the FED increasing when Mr. Trump announced the dismissal of FED Governor Lisa Cook. Previously, Mr. Trump repeatedly attacked FED Chairman Jerome Powell for not reducing interest rates and also threatened to fire Mr. Powell. In addition, the US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report for August dealt a further blow to the already weak job market, as employers added just 22,000 jobs, far below economists' forecasts of 75,000. The dismal figure followed an equally worrying July report of 73,000 new jobs, while revisions reduced the number by 258,000 jobs from the previous two months. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The worsening jobs picture has reinforced expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates at its meeting on September 16-17. Market participants now see a 0.25% rate cut as a near certainty, with some economists even suggesting the Fed could cut rates by as much as 0.5%. Next week, the US will release two important inflation figures, CPI and PPI. If the monthly core CPI increases by 0.5% or more, it may cause investors to reassess the probability of multiple rate cuts by the FED this year. This will support the USD, which will be detrimental to gold prices next week. On the contrary, if the core CPI increases by only 0.3%, it may cause the USD to fall, supporting gold prices to continue to rise next week. 📌Technically, on the H4 chart, if the gold price maintains its uptrend, it will move up to the next resistance level determined at the Fibonacci extension Fibo261.8 level around the threshold of 3,680 USD/oz. In case of a correction, the support level should be noted around the hard resistance level as well as the dynamic resistance level at the area of ​​3,450 USD/oz. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 3,574 – 3,550USD Resistance: 3,600 – 3,613USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3681 - 3679⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3685 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3449 - 3451⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3445
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Sep 01 - Sep 05]This week, the international OANDA:XAUUSD price increased quite strongly from 3,352 USD/oz to 3,453 USD/oz. The reason for the continued increase in gold price is because investors are still expecting the FED to cut interest rates by 0.25% at the upcoming September meeting, as well as the conflict between the Trump administration and the FED. Next week, financial markets in the US will be closed for Labor Day on Monday. On Tuesday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release its manufacturing PMI data. The PMI is forecast to increase slightly to 48.6 in August from 48 in July. If the forecast is correct, it will have a negative impact on gold prices next week. In addition, on Friday, the US will release the August non-farm payrolls (NFP) report. If the NFP continues to decline compared to the expected 74,000 jobs, it will force the Fed to cut interest rates in September, which will have a positive impact on gold prices next week. On the contrary, a stronger-than-expected NFP growth, combined with an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.2%, could make the market tilt towards the Fed continuing to delay interest rate cuts, causing gold prices to fall next week. However, given the current US economic situation, the August NFP may continue to decline. 📌Technically, on the H4 chart, the gold price broke the Trendline and it is likely that the price will continue to increase to near the threshold of 3500 USD/oz. In case the price corrects again, it will return to the resistance zone at the threshold of 3370. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 3,430 – 3,400 – 3,371USD Resistance: 3,450 – 3,500USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3541 - 3539⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3545 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3369 - 3371⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3365
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD eases as it tests $3,400, eyes US GDP dataOANDA:XAUUSD was broadly steady after a slight decline during the Asian session on Thursday (August 28), currently trading around $3,385/ounce. Investors will focus on the US GDP data, which is expected to cause significant market movements. The revised second-quarter real gross domestic product (GDP) figure is expected to come in at today (Thursday), with an expected annualized quarterly growth rate of 3.1%, up from the previous reading of 3.0%. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release its second-quarter GDP data. The BEA said in its preliminary estimate that the US economy grew at an annualized rate of 3%. A downward revision to the GDP data could hurt the dollar and help strengthen gold prices, while an upward revision could have the opposite effect. Market attention will remain focused on US political tensions and trade war-related news. Following the release of US Q2 GDP data, the trading week will conclude with the release of the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index on Friday. The PCE index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure and could influence market sentiment regarding a September rate cut. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has not been able to break above $3,400 after two sessions of testing, and it is currently retreating slightly from this level with a possible short-term target of $3,371, the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement point, as this is the closest support level currently. Although gold may fall in the short term, it has also achieved the initial conditions for a possible increase, namely the price action maintained above the EMA21 followed by the RSI maintaining above the 50 mark but the slope is not significant, indicating that the upward momentum is not too strong. As mentioned to readers, gold is in a sideways accumulation trend, while achieving some of the above short-term bullish conditions. Once gold breaks through the $3,400 mark, it will have the conditions to open a new bullish cycle, with the target then being around $3,430 to $3,450. During the day, the technical outlook is more inclined towards short-term bullishness, and the notable points will be listed as follows. Support: $3,371 – $3,350 Resistance: $3,400 – $3,430 – $3,450 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3430 - 3428⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3434 →Take Profit 1 3322 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3316 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3350 - 3352⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3346 →Take Profit 1 3358 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3364
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD falls nearly $20, as Dollar recovers and market quietSummary: OANDA:XAUUSD fell sharply in Asian trading on Wednesday (August 27), after rising sharply in the previous session. Prices are currently trading around $3,374/oz, down nearly $20 on the day. OANDA:XAUUSD is retreating from a two-week high near $3,400/oz after hitting that high on Wednesday morning. However, concerns about the Federal Reserve's autonomy and the latest U.S. tariff threats could ease the downward pressure on gold. The US Dollar TVC:DXY rebounded on Wednesday, putting pressure on gold prices. However, the dollar's gains appeared to be limited by concerns about the Federal Reserve and tariffs. OANDA:XAUUSD may be buying lower as investors look to buy on dips. Gold prices had earlier surged to a two-week high on Tuesday as US President Donald Trump announced the firing of Federal Reserve Governor Tim Cook, shaking investor confidence in the Fed's independence and boosting demand for safe havens. Additionally, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday that U.S. President Trump has threatened to impose new tariffs and export restrictions on advanced technologies and semiconductors in retaliation for other countries imposing digital services taxes on U.S. tech companies. Trump’s recent trade brinkmanship has reignited tariff uncertainty among U.S. trading partners. Earlier this month, shortly after concluding negotiations with dozens of partners on tariffs targeting specific countries, Trump announced new tariffs on a range of imported products. Last week, he said he would impose new tariffs on imported furniture. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has yet to reach its upside target at the $3,400 base level, but has come under some pressure as it approaches this level and has declined in early trading today. Spot gold is currently trading at $3,376, close to the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level. After breaking above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, this Fibonacci level now acts as the closest technical support, below which gold could retest the 21-day EMA at around $3,350. As mentioned to readers throughout the past publications, the overall trend of gold is still in a sideways accumulation phase. This is shown by the fact that RSI is hovering around 50, showing that the market sentiment is still hesitant in terms of momentum. When gold has enough conditions for a long-term trend, I will update readers quickly, but currently in the short term, gold has some technical factors supporting the possibility of price increases, with support at Fibonacci 0.236% and EMA21 and RSI above 50. However, short-term open positions should still be prioritized during this period of sideways accumulation, along with the notable points that will be listed as follows. Support: 3,371 – 3,350 USD Resistance: 3,400 – 3,430 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3430 - 3428⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3434 →Take Profit 1 3322 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3316 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3350 - 3352⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3346 →Take Profit 1 3358 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3364
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD spikes after Trump's move, with technical conditionsOANDA:XAUUSD surges after Trump's move, US President Donald Trump decided to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over allegations that she falsified mortgage records. The news affected the US Dollar index to fall sharply in early Asian trading on Tuesday (August 26), while spot gold prices rose nearly 35 dollars. On Monday evening local time, US President Trump posted a letter to Federal Reserve Governor Cook on the social media platform Truth Social, stating that he would remove Federal Reserve Governor Cook from his position, effective immediately. Trump stated in the document: "By virtue of the authority vested in me under Article II of the United States Constitution and the Federal Reserve Act of 1913, as amended, I hereby order to immediately remove Mr. Cook from his position on the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Given Mr. Cook’s fraudulent financial conduct and potential criminal conduct, I have no confidence in his integrity. At the very least, these actions expose his serious negligence in financial dealings and call into question his competence and credibility as a financial regulator.” “The American people must have full confidence in the integrity of those who set policy and oversee the Federal Reserve,” Trump said. “Given his fraudulent and even criminal conduct in financial matters, they cannot have that confidence, and I have no confidence in his integrity.” The move comes after the U.S. Justice Department said it plans to investigate Cook after Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte filed criminal charges alleging possible mortgage fraud. Bloomberg News reported that the investigation is the latest in a series of moves by the Trump administration to increase regulatory scrutiny of Democratic figures and put pressure on the Federal Reserve. TVC:DXY Falls Sharply, Gold Price Spikes Nearly $35 in Short Term The US Dollar Weakens Against All Major Currencies After Trump Fires Federal Reserve Governor Cook. Bloomberg said Trump's move has undermined people's confidence in the US Dollar, the world's reserve currency. Cook’s departure is bad for the Dollar as it opens the door for President Trump to appoint a new governor who may be more inclined to cut interest rates. This further challenges the independence of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the cornerstone of the Dollar’s ​​safe-haven status, and this could lead to further sell-offs in the Dollar, and of course, gold, which is directly correlated to the Dollar, will receive support from this. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Gold briefly surged above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level after the news but has now pared its intraday gains back below the said Fibonacci retracement level. However, it is also achieving the initial technical conditions for a bullish outlook in the short term with price action above the EMA21 and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) moving above 50, an RSI above 50 with some significant slope would be a reliable signal for momentum support. In terms of the overall technical picture, gold has not yet established a specific long-term trend with a sideways accumulation state that has lasted for the past few months, depicted by the green rectangle. Therefore, short-term trades are preferred in the current technical context, and the key points for this trading day are listed below. Support: 3,350 – 3,310 – 3,300 USD Resistance: 3,371 – 3,400 – 3,430 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3407 - 3405⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3411 →Take Profit 1 3399 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3393 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3350 - 3352⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3346 →Take Profit 1 3358 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3364
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
Market revolves around FED and Trump, GOLD is limitedFederal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday was the focus of market attention this week. Powell's unexpectedly dovish remarks reinforced market hopes for a September rate cut. As a result, the US Dollar Index fell sharply on Friday, reversing the upward trend of the first four trading days of the week. Moreover, Friday's strong gains also pushed gold prices to a nearly $36 surge for the week. On Friday (August 22), the US Dollar fell sharply and gold prices soared due to dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at future rate cuts in his highly anticipated speech at the Jackson Hole central bank's annual symposium, saying a rate cut "may be necessary" if conditions warrant. While he did not promise a rate cut, Powell said changes in the risk landscape could require adjustments to the Fed's policy guidance. “The stability of the unemployment rate and other labor market indicators allows us to be cautious as we consider changes to the stance of policy,” Powell said Friday. “However, changes in the baseline outlook and the balance of risks may make it appropriate to adjust the stance of policy while policy remains within its narrow range.” The remarks attempted to strike a delicate balance, acknowledging rising risks to the job market while warning that inflation pressures remain. Powell also stressed on Friday that policymakers must guard against persistent inflation risks from President Donald Trump’s tariffs. He said the impact of tariffs on consumer prices was “now evident,” but there was reason to expect the effects would be relatively short-lived. Following Powell’s speech, the US dollar fell sharply, gold prices jumped and the yield on the 2-year US Treasury note fell 10 basis points to 3.69%. Powell’s comments also highlighted the importance of jobs and inflation data ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on September 16-17. The CME FedWatch tool shows that traders are now pricing in a 75% chance of a September rate cut. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has recovered from $3,310, which is the first support point in the $3,310 – $3,292 area noted by readers in last week’s weekly edition. However, the temporary recovery is still limited by the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, which if gold breaks above this level with price action above $3,371, it will be eligible for further upside with the next target around $3,400 in the short term, more so than $3,430 – $3,450. Overall, gold is still in a sideways technical state as depicted inside the green rectangle. In case of a sell-off below the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level, the downside momentum could also be limited by the $3,246 level followed by the $3,228 level at the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement price point. The relative strength index hovering around 50 also shows the market's indecision, it does not give any reliable signal whether the trend is bullish or bearish in terms of momentum. Looking ahead, gold is primed for a short-term rally, with a break above $3,371 a necessary condition for a new short-term rally, with the following key points to watch. Support: $3,350 – $3,310 – $3,300 Resistance: $3,371 – $3,400 – $3,430 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3405 - 3403⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3409 →Take Profit 1 3397 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3391 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3329 - 3331⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3325 →Take Profit 1 3327 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3333
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
Get ready for the week's highlights, track negotiations progressOANDA:XAUUSD prices remained generally stable, in the Asian trading session on Friday (August 22), OANDA:XAUUSD fell slightly to $3,328/oz, equivalent to a decrease of $10 on the day as of the time of writing, extending the sideways accumulation. The focus of the week, Jackson Hole Gold continues to consolidate, with selling pressure holding back gains around $3,350/oz. Market participants await fresh messages from policymakers at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Today (Friday), Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. If Powell says we will cut rates again in October, November or December, the dollar could weaken and gold could have a chance to rise. Exclusive Reuters report, tracking the progress of the Russia-US-Ukraine negotiations Reuters has published an exclusive report in which three sources close to senior Kremlin leaders told Reuters that Russian President Vladimir Putin demanded that Ukraine abandon the entire Donbas region in the east, abandon its ambitions to join NATO, remain neutral and prevent Western troops from entering Ukraine. Last Friday, Putin met with President Trump in Alaska for the first summit between the United States and Russia in four years. According to Reuters sources, the nearly three-hour closed-door talks between the two sides were almost entirely devoted to discussing a compromise solution to the Ukraine issue. Standing next to Trump after the meeting, Putin said the meeting was expected to pave the way for peace in Ukraine, but neither Putin nor Trump revealed the specifics of the discussions. Reuters cited the most detailed Russian account yet of Putin’s proposal for the summit, outlining the outlines of a potential peace deal the Kremlin hopes to see. According to Russian sources, Putin has made some concessions based on territorial demands he made in June 2024. At that time, he asked Kyiv to give up four regions that Moscow claims as part of Russia: Donetsk and Luhansk (located in eastern Ukraine, collectively known as the Donbas region), as well as Kherson and Zaporizhia in the south. Reuters also reported that Putin maintained in his new proposal a demand for a full withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Donbass regions it still controls. However, they added that in return, Moscow would halt its frontline offensive in Zaporizhia and Kherson. According to US estimates and open-source data, Russia controls about 88% of the Donbas region and 73% of the Zaporizhia and Kherson regions. Sources said Putin also maintained his previous demands that Ukraine abandon its NATO membership bid and demanded that the US-led NATO make a legally binding commitment not to expand eastward, impose restrictions on the Ukrainian military and reach an agreement ensuring that no Western troops would be deployed as peacekeepers in Ukraine. There remains a wide gap between the two sides’ positions. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry has yet to respond to the proposal. Technical analysis of OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has been moving sideways for most of the time, so the technical structure has not changed much and the positions are also kept the same as in the previous publications sent to readers. During the day, the technical outlook of gold price accumulation sideways will be noticed by the positions listed below. Support: 3,310 – 3,300 – 3,292 USD Resistance: 3,350 – 3,371 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3376 - 3374⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3380 →Take Profit 1 3368 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3362 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3299 - 3301⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3295 →Take Profit 1 3307 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3313
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
GOLD eases after recovering from $3,310, data highlightsOANDA:XAUUSD edged down in Asian trade on Thursday (August 21), after a strong rally in the previous session. The current price is around $3,337/ounce, down 0.32% and around $10 on the day. OANDA:XAUUSD edged up on Wednesday. Bloomberg News analyzed that US President Trump's call for the resignation of Federal Reserve Board member Tim Cook has raised fresh concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, boosting safe-haven demand and causing gold prices to rise. On the other hand, Bloomberg also reported on Wednesday (August 20) that as gold prices have soared, the illegal gold trade has become one of the largest and fastest-growing illicit economies in the Western Hemisphere, and the U.S. government is facing pressure to step up its crackdown. According to a report released by the Financial and Corporate Transparency Alliance (FACT) on Wednesday, the boom in illegal gold mining and trading in some South American countries has become a crisis that the United States cannot ignore. In Colombia and Peru, two major cocaine-producing countries, illegal gold is estimated to generate more revenue for organized crime than the drug trade itself. The Washington-based financial advocacy group has called on Congress to pass legislation to address the environmental and social impacts of illegal gold mining. The rise of the illegal gold trade is due to a tripling of gold prices over the past decade and weak law enforcement as authorities remain focused on fighting drug trafficking. In terms of the day’s data highlights S&P Global will release preliminary figures for the US manufacturing and services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for August today (Thursday). This important report could have a significant impact on the direction of gold prices. Economists expect the preliminary US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August to be 49.5, compared to a final reading of 49.8 in July. In addition, the preliminary reading of the US S&P Global Services PMI for August is expected to be 54.2, compared to a final reading of 55.7 in July. The July services PMI was 55.7, and if August data shows a sharp decline, the US Dollar could be negatively affected immediately. On the other hand, if the manufacturing PMI recovers above 50 and the services PMI approaches July levels, the US Dollar could remain strong against other currencies, making it difficult for gold to regain its upward momentum. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD After receiving support from the $3,310 level, which is the support that readers have been paying attention to throughout the publications during this time, gold has recovered but the upside momentum has also been limited after testing the EMA21 line. Gold is under pressure from the EMA21, temporarily falling slightly but it may retest the $3,310 level in the short term as there is no more notable support than this level at present, followed by the full price point of $3,300. Personally, I still maintain the view that gold will continue to move sideways and wait for a strong enough fundamental impact to change the overall technical structure. The factors that show that gold is neutral are that it has not yet achieved the conditions for a long-term trend line, the sideways state is depicted by the green rectangle. Next is the price action clinging to the 21-day moving average, followed by the RSI moving around the 50 level, showing that the market sentiment is also hesitantly neutral without leaning to any particular side. During the day, the technical outlook of gold price accumulation sideways will be noticed by the positions listed below. Support: 3,310 – 3,300 – 3,292 USD Resistance: 3,350 – 3,371 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3376 - 3374⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3380 →Take Profit 1 3368 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3362 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3299 - 3301⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3295 →Take Profit 1 3307 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3313
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD hits lowest level since August 1OANDA:XAUUSD fell sharply, hitting its lowest intraday level since August 1. Gold prices fell as US President Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and European leaders discussed potential talks with Russia. Safe-haven demand eased as speculation about security in Kiev stoked optimism that the war could end. Last Friday’s meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin laid the groundwork for a possible solution. Trump met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and other European leaders on Monday to prepare for a possible ceasefire and push for a three-way meeting to start talks between Kyiv and Moscow. Trump said “Putin, Zelensky need to be flexible” and offer Ukraine some security guarantees to prevent another Russian attack. However, Trump has said he will not allow Ukraine to join NATO. Geopolitical developments suggest that a positive outcome from Trump’s meetings with Putin, Zelensky and European leaders could end the ongoing war. Rumors of a possible de-escalation of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia have weighed on gold, which typically benefits from global uncertainty. Traders are looking to the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s meeting today (Wednesday) and a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday for guidance on the policy path. Gold itself does not generate interest, but is traditionally seen as a safe haven in times of uncertainty and tends to perform well in low-interest-rate environments. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing in an 85% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in September. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Gold is in a key technical position with support noted to readers in the previous issue at $3,310, followed by the psychological point of $3,300 and the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement. If gold sells below $3,292 it will be in a position to expect a short-term decline, with the target likely to be $3,246 rather than the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement. Motivationally, the RSI is pointing below 50 and is far from the oversold zone (0-20) suggesting that there is still plenty of room for downside ahead. At the same time, gold is also under pressure from the EMA21 line, where if gold cannot move above this moving average, it will not have enough conditions to increase in the short term. During the day, overall, gold is still moving sideways and has not yet had a sustainable trend, it is also in a very important technical area with important supports. And the notable points will be listed as follows. Support: 3,310 - 3,300 - 3,292 USD Resistance: 3,350 - 3,371 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3351 - 3349⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3355 →Take Profit 1 3343 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3337 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3279 - 3281⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3275 →Take Profit 1 3287 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3293
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
4
GOLD range remains narrow, watch for progress in negotiationsOn Monday (August 18), according to Reuters, US President Donald Trump told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy that the United States would support Ukraine's security in any deal to end Russia's war in Ukraine. However, Reuters said the level of support was still unclear. OANDA:XAUUSD reacted quite mildly as no real message of sufficient weight was released, and market sentiment remained very hesitant, currently spot gold is trading around $3,335/oz, equivalent to an increase of about $2 on the day. Tracking the progress of the Ukraine ceasefire talks Trump made the pledge at a special summit at the White House, where he hosted Zelenskiy and a group of European allies. The pledge came days after meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska. The comments came months after Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance had a disastrous meeting in the Oval Office, in which he publicly criticized Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky. However, Reuters notes that a peace deal appears far from certain. Just before the talks began, the Russian Foreign Ministry ruled out the possibility of deploying NATO troops to help broker a peace deal, further complicating Trump’s proposal. Both Trump and Zelenskiy have said they hope Monday’s meeting will eventually lead to three-way talks with Putin. The Kremlin has not publicly endorsed such talks, and it remains unclear whether Putin, whose forces are advancing into eastern Ukraine, is willing to sit down with Zelenskiy or make meaningful concessions. Trump tweeted late Monday that he had called Putin and was beginning to arrange a meeting between Putin and Zelensky, followed by a three-way summit between the three presidents. Meanwhile, European leaders have arrived in Washington to support Ukraine and urge Trump to get Putin to agree to a ceasefire before any talks can begin. Trump had previously supported the proposal but reversed course after meeting with Putin on Friday, agreeing with Moscow’s stance that any peace deal must be comprehensive. Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office on Monday, Trump said he liked the concept of a ceasefire, but the two sides could negotiate a peace deal while fighting continued. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold weakened after failing to break above the EMA21 line, which was the near resistance that readers noticed in the previous issue. Gold has also shown signs of a possible short-term decline, but the trend is still not really clear and solid. Specifically, the Relative Strength Index has fallen below 50, but the slope is insignificant, indicating that the bearish momentum is not strong. This is followed by price action below the EMA21 but not far from this moving average, while still remaining above the psychologically important $3,300 price mark. If gold does not sell below $3,300, it is likely to have clear conditions for a short-term downtrend, which is generally sideways. The content of the Trump multilateral meeting, with Ukraine and Europe, will impact market sentiment, and the catalyst is strong enough to break the current structure and hesitation to create a technical trend in the short to medium term. During the day, with the current position, the gold price still has a technical outlook of sideways accumulation and notable positions will be listed as follows. Support: 3,310 - 3,300 - 3,292 USD Resistance: 3,350 - 3,371 - 3,400 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3376 - 3374⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3380 →Take Profit 1 3368 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3362 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3299 - 3301⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3295 →Take Profit 1 3307 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3313
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD rebounds slightly, data supports rate cut expectations, PPIOANDA:XAUUSD rebounded slightly, currently trading around $3,351/oz, positive US inflation data for July reinforced market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, while a weaker US dollar boosted the appeal of gold. Mild inflation supports rate cut expectations Data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% year-on-year in July, below expectations of 2.8% and unchanged from June. Core CPI rose 3.1% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, the largest increase in six months. While core inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s target, the overall data was interpreted by the market as positive for a rate cut. The US Dollar Index fell to 98.02, making non-dollar-denominated gold more attractive. Market data showed traders are betting that the chances of a Fed rate cut in September and December remain high. Next up, the US will release weekly PPI, retail sales and initial jobless claims data, all of which could influence the policy outlook. Viewpoint: Rate cuts and political uncertainty pave the way for gold to hit new highs Uncertainty over the independence of the Federal Reserve and continued central bank buying of gold are key factors supporting gold prices. Demand for gold ETFs grew at its fastest pace since early 2020 in the first half of this year. If the independence of the Federal Reserve is increasingly questioned, the safe-haven value of gold will increase significantly. Gold is a counterweight to fiat currencies (US dollars), and once investors question the independence of central banks, demand will increase. Forex Market Volatility and Safe Haven Demand Recent trade policy uncertainty has added to volatility in global forex markets. The Indian rupee is nearing a record low against the US dollar, with the Reserve Bank of India selling at least $5 billion to support the exchange rate. The US dollar has weakened after a brief rally, while the Chinese yuan has remained stable. The weakening US dollar has somewhat increased the relative appeal of gold, leading to a recovery in safe-haven demand. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Gold rallied, but the recovery momentum is still limited by the EMA21 as the first resistance, followed by the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level. If gold breaks above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, it will be eligible to continue to increase in price towards the 3,400 USD price point, opening a new bullish cycle. However, at the current position, gold price can still retest the $3,310 – $3,300 area due to the pressure from EMA21 and 0.236% Fibonacci retracement. This means that the $3,310 – $3,300 area is an important support area for the uptrend. As long as gold remains above $3,300, it can still increase in the short term, but in case of a sell-off below $3,300, confirmed by a price action below $3,292, it will open the conditions for a downtrend with the next target around $3,246 in the short term. During the day, the trend of gold prices is generally sideways, with balanced conditions and indicators, described by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around the 50 level, also showing the market's hesitant sentiment. Personally, I am inclined to the upside, along with that, open long positions should be protected when the 3,300 USD mark is broken below. Notable positions will also be listed as follows. Support: 3,310 – 3,300 – 3,292 USD Resistance: 3,350 – 3,371 – 3,400 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3391 - 3389⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3395 →Take Profit 1 3383 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3377 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3299 - 3301⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3295 →Take Profit 1 3307 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3313
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD hesitates, inflation data day in focusOANDA:XAUUSD came under pressure on Monday (August 11) and recovered slightly this morning, Tuesday (August 12). US President Trump made it clear that he would not impose tariffs on gold imports, erasing earlier market concerns about disruptions to the global gold supply chain. Investors are now turning their attention to US inflation data, due to be released this week, to gauge the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook. Tariff doubts dissipated Trump tweeted: "There will be no tariffs on gold!" without providing further details. The announcement brought relief to the global gold market. As a global gold transit and refining hub, Switzerland was once considered the "biggest victim" but Trump's latest statement essentially eliminated that risk. Investor focus shifts to inflation As the tariff uncertainty fades, traders will turn their attention to other market factors, the most important of which is the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook. • If US inflation data comes in higher than expected, this could give the Federal Reserve reason to pause its rate cut in September, which would put pressure on gold prices; • But if the data is mild or even weak, this is expected to support gold prices as market expectations of lower interest rates are further reinforced. Market Outlook In the short term, gold is entering a correction phase after tariff concerns are resolved, and price movements may be more influenced by US dollar and inflation data. If inflation remains low and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) sends a dovish signal, gold prices are expected to maintain high support levels; however, if inflation exceeds expectations and the US dollar strengthens, gold prices may face the risk of a deeper correction. In the medium to long term, gold remains valuable as a safe haven and an asset allocation channel amid global economic uncertainty and the possibility of low interest rates. The market expects core CPI to rise to 3.0% year-on-year in July, up from 2.9% in June. The pass-through of tariff costs could spur a rebound in goods inflation. • If the data beats expectations, the Federal Reserve could delay a rate cut. • Conversely, a weaker reading would increase the odds of a rate cut in September, with futures currently implying an 87% chance. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Gold recovered, operating around the EMA21, showing that the overall market sentiment is still hesitant to wait for a breakthrough impact from the fundamental side. In the short term, gold is under technical pressure from the EMA21, and the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, and for gold to have all the conditions for a continued bullish expectation, it needs to break above the said Fibonacci retracement level, after which the short-term target is the raw price point of 3,400 USD. If gold continues to break the raw price point of 3,400 USD and operates above this level, the possibility of a new bullish cycle will be opened with the next target at 3,430 USD - 3,450 USD. On the other hand, gold is still above $3,300, which does not allow the conditions for a bearish cycle to appear. That means as long as gold remains above the original price point of $3,300 and the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level, it can still increase in the short term. In case gold sells below $3,300, it will be eligible for a bearish cycle, the target then will be $3,246 in the short term, more than the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level. On the momentum front, the RSI hovers around the 50 mark, indicating a hesitant market sentiment, but an upward bend from 50 would be a positive signal for upside potential. For the day, the overall outlook remains bullish and the key points to watch are listed below. Support: $3,340 – $3,310 – $3,300 Resistance: $3,371 – $3,400 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3377 - 3375⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3381 →Take Profit 1 3369 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3363 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3298 - 3300⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3294 →Take Profit 1 3306 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3312
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Data week, GOLD has all the conditions to riseThis week, global financial markets will look forward to US inflation data for July (CPI, PPI), retail sales data and speeches from several Federal Reserve officials. These important pieces of information will directly impact expectations for a September rate cut and influence the performance of the US Dollar, gold, crude oil and US stocks. On the political front, US President Donald Trump's public pressure on the Federal Reserve and recent appointments have raised market concerns about the independence of monetary policy, while escalating tariffs continue to raise the risk of global trade conflicts. Federal Reserve: Policy Disruption and Dovish Signals Coexist This week, the Fed kept its target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50%, but the vote was split, with two officials—Vice Chair Michelle Bowman and Governor Christopher Waller—in favor of an immediate quarter-point rate cut. TVC:DXY : Technical Pressure and Political Risk The US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen to around 98 this week, failing to hold above 100. Technically, a break of the July low of 96.37 could lead to a drop to 95.13 and 94.62. Despite the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.285%, the Dollar remains under pressure, reflecting market concerns about political risks in the United States. If CPI is higher than expected this week, the market may feel like it is moving too fast, which could cause volatility. Traders generally believe that Trump's tariff policies, public criticism of the Federal Reserve and uncertainty about the fiscal deficit are all weakening the medium- to long-term support for the US Dollar. Markets will be watching closely to see if the impact of tariffs starts to show in inflation data, and if consumer spending data confirms the economic recovery. A positive reading would reinforce expectations for a rate cut, a positive signal for stocks and gold. An unexpected rise in inflation could slow the pace of Fed easing, weighing on risk assets and supporting the US Dollar TVC:DXY . Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has been on a long bullish recovery since breaking out and holding above the $3,300 base point, and currently structurally it has not changed much with the uptrend still dominating the daily chart. Specifically, in the short term, gold is supported by the EMA21 with the target at the $3,400 base point noted by readers in the weekly publication last week has been achieved. Looking ahead, the horizontal support at the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement will be the nearest support to reinforce the expectation of a continued breakout of gold prices breaking through the $3,400 point towards the $3,430 – $3,450 level. In terms of momentum, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved above 50 but is still quite far from the overbought zone (80-100), indicating that there is still a lot of room for upside ahead. Meanwhile, even if gold is sold below the EMA21, the declines are not considered a specific technical trend in the short term, as long as the support levels of 3,310 – 3,300 USD and Fibonacci 0.382% are not broken below. Finally, in terms of position as well as technical conditions, the gold price on the daily chart currently has a technical outlook leaning more towards the upside and the notable points will be listed as follows. Support: 3,371 – 3,350 – 3,340 USD Resistance: 3,400 – 3,430 – 3,350 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3424 - 3422⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3428 →Take Profit 1 3416 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3410 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3338 - 3340⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3334 →Take Profit 1 3346 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3352
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Aug 11 - Aug 15]This week, the international OANDA:XAUUSD price has been almost flat, fluctuating only within the range of 3,345 USD/oz to 3,408 USD/oz. Notably, every time the gold price exceeds 3,400 USD/oz, it is pushed down below this level by profit-taking pressure. Next week, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its July Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday. Accordingly, the CPI in July is forecast to increase to 2.8% compared to the same period last year, from 2.7% in June. According to many experts, this increase in inflation is not strong enough to make the Fed delay cutting interest rates at its meeting in September. Therefore, strong fluctuations in the annual CPI figures will strongly affect the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. If the CPI in July rises above the 3% threshold, it will reduce expectations of the FED cutting interest rates in September, helping the USD increase, pushing gold prices down next week. Conversely, if the CPI in July falls below forecasts, it will push gold prices up sharply next week. In addition to CPI data, the US also announced retail sales for July. The US economy is driven by consumption, so if retail sales decline sharply, it will also negatively impact the USD, thereby pushing gold prices up next week and vice versa. With the current context and the above economic data, it is likely that gold prices next week will continue to move sideways, with no strong fluctuations. 📌In terms of technical analysis, the level of 3,350 USD/oz is the first support level, followed by the area of 3,285 - 3,300 USD/oz. Meanwhile, the level of 3,450 USD/oz is a strong resistance level, surpassing this level, the gold price next week has the opportunity to challenge 3,500 USD/oz. However, this possibility is not highly appreciated. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 3,371 – 3,350 – 3,340USD Resistance: 3,400 – 3,430 – 3,350USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3452 - 3450⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3456 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3349 - 3351⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3345
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD spikes then falls rapidly, all conditions are bullishOANDA:XAUUSD prices surged after falling in the previous trading day, as Trump tariffs took effect and weak U.S. jobs data raised expectations of interest rate cuts, boosting safe-haven demand. OANDA:XAUUSD prices reversed course on Thursday, posting sharp gains as the latest U.S. jobs data showed a weakening labor market. Investors, therefore, increased their dovish bets as the Federal Reserve is expected to resume its easing cycle in September. The number of people filing for continuing unemployment benefits in the United States has hit a high not seen since November 2021, adding momentum to the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance. With inflation remaining high and the U.S. job market weak, the risk of stagflation has emerged. Data released by the U.S. Labor Department on Thursday showed that continuing unemployment claims rose by 38,000 to 1.97 million in the week ended July 26. The high level suggests that it is increasingly difficult for unemployed people to find new jobs. Initial jobless claims also rose to 226,000 last week, exceeding economists’ expectations. The data has bolstered market expectations for a Fed rate cut Last week, weak U.S. nonfarm payrolls data boosted expectations for a rate cut. According to data from Prime Market Terminal, traders see a 95% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September meeting. Meanwhile, higher tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump took effect on Thursday, providing a tailwind for gold, Valencia added. Countries affected include Switzerland, Brazil and India, which have yet to reach a deal with Washington. Gold, a store of value in times of uncertainty, also tends to perform well in low-interest-rate environments. Milan joins Fed, adding pressure on Powell to cut rates US President Trump announced on Thursday that he will nominate Stephen Milan, currently chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, to serve on the Federal Reserve Board, replacing Kugler, who unexpectedly resigned last week. The news also helped push gold prices higher on Thursday. Trump said on social media Truth Social: "Stephen Milan will serve as the newly vacated seat on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors until January 31, 2026. He has been with me since my second term and his economic expertise is unmatched. He will do an outstanding job." Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Gold currently has all the bullish conditions, specifically the gold price broke above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level of $3,371 and tested the original price point, which is the target upside point of the $3,400 area. The $3,371 level becomes the nearest support at present, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that there is still room for further upside ahead. As long as gold remains above the EMA21, it still has a bullish outlook in the short term. There are hardly any factors that suggest that gold can fall significantly, so the general trend in the short and medium term is bullish and the notable points will be listed as follows. Support: $3,371 - $3,350 Resistance: $3,400 - $3,430 - $3,450 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3431 - 3429⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3435 →Take Profit 1 3323 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3317 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3339 - 3341⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3335 →Take Profit 1 3347 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3353
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD trades in narrow range, leading market pulseThe current market pulse is still mainly revolving around the Trump-initiated tariff story, with spot OANDA:XAUUSD trading in a fairly narrow range and currently reported at $3,376/oz, down 0.13% on the day. Gold is also awaiting further impact from the Fed's interest rate cut, with a weaker Dollar providing support for non-yielding gold. Tariff News Update US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday (August 5) that US tariffs on imported semiconductors and pharmaceuticals will be announced “in about a week”. The progressive tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals could be as high as 250%. US news agency Bloomberg News said the Trump administration is now preparing to target key economic sectors and pledge to reshape global trade. “We’re going to start with a lower tariff on drugs, but within a year, not more than a year and a half, it’s going to be 150%, then 250% because we want drugs made in our country,” Trump said in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday. He did not specify what the initial tariff would be. “We’re going to be announcing measures on semiconductors and chips, which is a different category,” Trump added. However, Trump did not provide further details. The U.S. Commerce Department has been investigating the semiconductor market since April as it prepares for possible tariffs on an industry with estimated global sales of nearly $700 billion. The U.S. has imposed tariffs on imported cars, auto parts, as well as steel and aluminum under the Trump administration. Tariffs on imported chips could significantly raise costs for major data center operators, including Microsoft Corp., OpenAI, Meta Platforms Inc. and Amazon.com Inc., which plan to spend billions of dollars on the advanced semiconductors needed to power their artificial intelligence businesses. On the Fed’s interest-rate path US job growth in July missed expectations, while nonfarm payrolls data for May and June were revised down significantly, with a combined loss of 258,000 jobs, suggesting a worsening labor market. Furthermore, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Monday: "We may need more than two rate cuts, and more is likely." She also noted: "The labor market is not too weak, but it is weakening, and further weakening would be detrimental." Surprising US labor market data and Daly’s dovish comments have all but confirmed the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September. According to CME’s FedWatch tool, the market is now pricing in a 90% chance of a Fed rate cut in September. OANDA:XAUUSD is often seen as a safe haven asset during times of political and economic uncertainty, and performs better in low-interest-rate environments. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Gold is still trading in a fairly narrow range yesterday, but the price action is still mainly held above the EMA21 and it still has all the conditions for a possible increase. However, although the range is quite large, the overall situation is still showing a sideways accumulation trend. Currently, gold is supported by the EMA21, followed by the short-term $3,310 level and the raw price point of $3,300. As long as it remains above the psychological $3,300 level, it is still eligible for a short-term bullish outlook. Meanwhile, a break above $3,400 would open the door for a new short-term bullish cycle with the next target around $3,430 – $3,450. On the momentum front, the RSI maintains its price action above 50 and is still far from the overbought zone (80 – 100) suggesting that there is still plenty of room for upside ahead. During the day, in terms of technical position, gold has unchanged conditions that are inclined to increase in price, and the notable positions will be listed as follows. Support: 3,350 – 3,340 – 3,310 USD Resistance: 3,400 – 3,430 – 3,450 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3431 - 3429⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3435 →Take Profit 1 3323 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3317 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3329 - 3331⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3325 →Take Profit 1 3337 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3343
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD down slightly, watch today's data, technical conditionsOANDA:XAUUSD edged lower in Asian trading on Tuesday (August 5), currently trading around $3,380/ounce. On Tuesday, the US ISM services PMI will be released, which is the most important economic data of the week and is expected to impact the gold market. OANDA:XAUUSD prices surged after weak jobs data increased the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. Data released last Friday showed that the number of new jobs in the US non-farm sector in July was much lower than expected, and the total number of non-farm jobs in the first two months was revised down by 258,000, indicating a sharp deterioration in the labor market. Traders now see an 87% chance of a rate cut in September, up from 63% last week, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations of a rate cut have boosted gold prices, as the dollar provides support for the precious metal. The US ISM non-manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) for July will be released today (Tuesday) and is expected to be 51.5, up from 50.8 previously. The July ISM services PMI could impact the US dollar and gold, depending on whether it is biased towards supporting a rate cut or pausing rate cuts for an extended period. Gold itself does not generate interest, but generally performs well in low-interest-rate environments and is seen as an inflation hedge. On the trade front Today (August 5), US President Donald Trump threatened to raise tariffs on Indian goods in protest at India's purchase of Russian oil. New Delhi called Trump's attack "absurd" and pledged to protect its economic interests, deepening the trade rift between the two countries. Trump posted on the social media platform Truth Social: "India not only buys massive amounts of Russian oil, but also sells much of it on the open market at a huge profit. They don't care how many people are being killed in Ukraine by the Russian war machine." Trump added: "Accordingly, I will be substantially increasing the tariffs that India pays to the United States." However, Trump did not specify the specific tariff amount. Responding to Trump's remarks, an Indian foreign ministry spokesperson said on Monday that India would "take all necessary measures to protect its national interests and economic security." The spokesperson added: "These actions against India are unjustified and unjustifiable." Over the weekend, Reuters reported that India would continue to buy oil from Russia despite Trump’s threats. In July, Trump announced that he would impose a 25% tariff on imports from India, and US officials have also pointed to a range of geopolitical issues as holding up the signing of a US-India trade deal. Trump has also described the BRICS group as generally hostile to the US. Those countries have rejected Trump’s accusations, saying the group protects the interests of its members and the developing world as a whole. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, although gold has been very volatile in recent times, it is still moving sideways, with price action clinging to the EMA21. And after a strong recovery in the past three trading sessions, gold is temporarily limited by the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, which was the bullish target that readers paid attention to earlier. The return above the EMA21 provides gold with initial conditions for bullish expectations, but a new trend has not yet formed. If gold takes its price action above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level and stabilizes above it, it will have room to continue rising with the next target being the raw price point of $3,400 rather than the $3,430-$3,450 target. But at its current position, it still has no clear trend either up or down. Meanwhile, once gold sells below the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level, it could continue to decline with a target of $3,246 in the short term, which also means that the $3,300 – $3,292 area is the current key support area. Momentum-wise, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also hovering around 50 with little fluctuation, indicating a hesitant sentiment in the market without leaning to either side. For the day, the technical outlook for gold is a sideways consolidation but the technical conditions are slightly more bullish, and the notable positions are listed as follows. Support: $3,350 – $3,340 – $3,300 Resistance: $3,400 – $3,430 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3402 - 3400⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3406 →Take Profit 1 3394 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3388 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3329 - 3331⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3325 →Take Profit 1 3337 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3343
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
After data shock, GOLD has bullish conditions againOANDA:XAUUSD rose more than 2% on Friday, hitting a one-week high, as weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls data boosted hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut and the announcement of new tariffs boosted safe-haven demand. On the economic data front Gold prices rose more than 2% in U.S. trading on Friday (Aug. 1), hitting a one-week high, as weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls data fueled hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut and safe-haven demand was boosted by the announcement of new tariffs. The U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payrolls increased by just 73,000 jobs in July, well below market expectations of 110,000. June's data was revised down to just 14,000, indicating a significant slowdown in job growth. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, indicating a cooling labor market. The jobs data was weaker than expected, but slightly higher than the market's lowest forecast. This increases the likelihood of a rate cut by the Fed later this year. As a non-yielding asset, gold typically performs better in a low-interest-rate environment. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, market participants now expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice before the end of the year, starting in September. Earlier this week, the Fed held rates steady at 4.25%-4.50%. Chairman Powell said it was too early to determine whether a rate cut would be forthcoming in September, citing inflation and employment data. On the trade front Trump has imposed a new round of tariffs on exports from dozens of trading partners, including Canada, Brazil, India and Taiwan, causing a global market crash. Countries are scrambling to negotiate a better deal. In times of economic and geopolitical uncertainty, safe-haven gold is in high demand. So far in 2025, gold prices have risen more than $400, hitting a record high of $3,167.57/oz on April 3, driven by safe-haven demand and central bank buying. Weak jobs data also sent the dollar lower against major currencies, further supporting gold prices as a weaker greenback makes gold more attractive to investors holding other currencies. Investors' Attention Turns to September FOMC Meeting Markets are now focused on the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Facing the dual pressures of volatile inflation, slowing employment and escalating global trade tensions, the Fed will have to balance its inflation target with economic growth. Markets are betting on the Fed to begin a new round of easing, and gold, as a hedge against currency devaluation and economic uncertainty, is expected to continue to benefit. Gold prices have risen more than 30% year-to-date, reflecting the market’s preference for safe-haven assets. If weak U.S. economic data continues in the coming weeks, or if new geopolitical conflicts emerge, gold prices are expected to continue their upward trend, challenging new highs for the year. Summary, Commentary Weak employment, new tariffs and a slumping stock market have all contributed to a strong recovery in gold prices. With the possibility of the US Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September increasing significantly, gold market sentiment has warmed and risk aversion has returned. Investors will need to keep a close eye on inflation data, Fed officials’ speeches, and whether Trump continues to stoke trade tensions, which could lead to greater volatility in the gold market. Against the backdrop of the unexpected non-farm payrolls report and moderate inflation, the market has essentially “locked in” the possibility of a rate cut in September, but whether the cut will be 25 or 50 basis points, and whether there will be further rate cuts in the future, will depend on the interaction between the Fed members’ verbal guidance and market expectations. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, affected by the sudden weak data that shocked the market, gold broke most of the technical structure that was leaning towards the downside. Price action was pushed above the EMA21, while the short-term downtrend channel was also broken above and the Relative Strength Index crossed above 50. These are the initial conditions for a short-term uptrend. But to confirm an uptrend and a new uptrend in the near term, gold needs to continue to break above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level (3,371 USD) first, then the target will be around 3,400 USD in the short term. If gold breaks above $3,400 again, traders should set a new target of $3,430 in the short term, rather than $3,450 which is the all-time high. Motivationally, the RSI has not reached oversold territory to provide pure reversal support, but it has been pushed by the market shock after the NFP data release, so this rally may not be sustainable in a purely motivational way either. Overall, gold is now more bullish after a rally on Friday, opening up initial conditions for expectations of a new uptrend. And the notable points will be listed as follows. Support: 3,323 – 3,310 – 3,300 USD Resistance: 3,371 – 3,400 – 3,430 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3376 - 3374⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3380 →Take Profit 1 3368 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3362 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3327 - 3329⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3323 →Take Profit 1 3335 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3341
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Aug 04 - Aug 08]This week, the price of OANDA:XAUUSD fell sharply from $3,345/oz to $3,268/oz after the FED Chairman said that the FED has no plans to cut interest rates at the upcoming September meeting. However, at the end of the week, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the number of non-farm jobs (NFP) in the US reached only 73,000 jobs in July, much lower than the forecast, and the unemployment rate increased higher, up to 4.2%. This pushed the price of gold up sharply from $3,281/oz to $3,363/oz. The weak labor market has significantly changed expectations for the Fed's interest rate. With a relatively light economic data calendar next week, investors will continue to monitor Friday's jobless claims report. Meanwhile, some analysts predict that the risk of global economic uncertainty after President Donald Trump announced new tariffs will continue to boost safe-haven demand for gold. 📌Technically, the resistance level for gold next week will be the round resistance of 3,400 USD/oz, followed by 3,440 USD/oz. Meanwhile, the support level is around 3,268 USD/oz. Perspective on the H4 chart, gold is currently in a corrective recovery cycle testing the Trendline, it is likely that early next week there will be an increase around 3375 and then a correction decrease again. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 3,323 – 3,310 – 3,300USD Resistance: 3,371 – 3,400 – 3,430USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3394 - 3392⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3398 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3310 - 3312⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3306
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD falls sharply, fundamental analysis and technical positionOANDA:XAUUSD fell sharply below the $3,300/oz price level as Chairman Jerome Powell did not signal any rate cuts at his next press conference on September 16-17. He only said that “no decision has been made on September” and that “more data will be evaluated in the coming months.” Economic data undermined the case for a rate cut, while geopolitical play remained a potential support. The Fed and Interest Rates The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged for a fifth straight meeting on Wednesday, defying persistent pressure from President Donald Trump and White House officials. However, two members of the central bank's board dissented, a rare move in three decades that underscored growing divisions within the central bank over the impact of Trump's tariff policies. At the meeting, the Fed kept its benchmark federal funds rate in a range of 4.25% to 4.5%, in line with policy through 2025. Last fall, the Fed cut rates by a total of 100 basis points. However, Federal Reserve Board Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman opposed cutting interest rates by another 25 basis points, marking the first time since Alan Greenspan in 1993 that two board members have opposed a majority resolution at a meeting. At the press conference, Chairman Jerome Powell did not signal a rate cut at the next interest rate meeting on September 16-17, saying only that “no decision has been made about September” and that “more data will be evaluated in the coming months.” Powell also noted that despite Trump’s call for a sharp 3% rate cut to reduce interest costs on US debt and stimulate the housing market, the Fed will continue to monitor the longer-term impact of tariffs on the path of inflation and economic recovery. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September fell to 47% in Powell's speech. Economic data ADP jobs data beats expectations and is bearish US ADP payrolls jumped 104,000 in July, beating market expectations of 75,000 and marking the biggest gain since March. The data showed continued strength in the labor market, reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s stance on keeping interest rates high. Meanwhile, the preliminary estimate of annual GDP growth in the second quarter came in at 3% (2.4% expected), and the core personal consumption expenditures price index rose 2.5% year-on-year (2.3% expected), indicating both economic resilience and inflation stability, further weakening expectations for a rate cut. Keep an eye on the ISM manufacturing PMI and non-farm payrolls data on August 1. If the jobs numbers continue to be strong, this could reinforce the Fed’s dovish stance. Geopolitical and Policy Plays News of a 90-day extension of the US-China tariff deal has eased some safe-haven demand, but Trump’s August 8 deadline for a new Russia-Ukraine deal, coupled with tensions in the Middle East, continue to provide potential support for gold. Continued purchases by central banks (such as China and India) are a positive signal in the medium to long term, but are unlikely to offset short-term pressure from the Federal Reserve’s policies. Technical outlook for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has been sold below the $3,300 level and now the $3,300 level has become the nearest resistance at present. For now, gold will be limited by the area of ​​the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement with the original price point of $3,300, along with that it has formed a short-term downtrend with the price channel, the next target will be around $3,246 in the short term followed by the Fibonacci retracement level noted with readers in previous publications. On the momentum front, the Relative Strength Index is operating below 50 and is far from the oversold zone (20-0), indicating that there is still plenty of room for downside ahead. In addition, the gold trend will also be pressured by the EMA21, as long as gold remains below the EMA21, the current technical conditions continue to favor the downside. For the day, the technical outlook for gold is bearish with notable positions listed as follows. Support: 3,246 – 3,228 USD Resistance: 3,300 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3345 - 3343⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3349 →Take Profit 1 3337 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3331 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3240 - 3242⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3236 →Take Profit 1 3248 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3254
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
3
GOLD recovers after many days of declineOANDA:XAUUSD has recovered after several days of declines. Investors will focus on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday, which is expected to cause significant market volatility. Gold hit a three-week low of $3,301 an ounce on Monday, before recovering somewhat on Tuesday after falling for a fourth straight day as the dollar erased some of its earlier gains, boosting demand for the precious metal. Falling US Treasury yields and a weak US jobs report also prompted investors to buy gold. Data released by the U.S. Labor Department on Tuesday showed the number of jobs added fell in June after two straight months of gains. The number of jobs added in June fell to 7.44 million from a revised 7.71 million in May. The median forecast of economists in a survey was 7.5 million. Focus on the Federal Reserve's decision The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 01:00 IST on Thursday; Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a press conference on monetary policy at 01:30 IST on the same day. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged, with the focus on whether Fed Chairman Powell's speech will provide any clues about the timing or pace of future rate cuts. The market sees a very low chance of a rate cut in July and a roughly 40% chance of another rate cut in September, up from about 10% last month, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool. Investors will be closely watching the statement and Fed Chairman Powell's remarks at his post-meeting press conference for fresh clues on the timing of the next rate cut. - If Powell opens the door to a rate cut in September, citing the recent trade deal as a reason to ease uncertainty, US Treasury yields could fall immediately, paving the way for gold prices to rise. - On the other hand, if Powell avoids committing to a rate cut at this meeting, citing recent rising inflation data, gold prices could fall. Gold typically performs well in low-interest-rate environments because it does not pay interest and its appeal increases when returns from other assets decline. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has recovered from the key $3,300 price point and is holding above $3,310, which is also the nearest support. However, the current recovery is not technically enough to create a short-term uptrend, or conditions for a sustained price increase. In terms of position, gold is under pressure with the 21-day EMA as the nearest resistance at around $3,340 – $3,350. If gold falls below the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level, it will be eligible to open a new downtrend with a target of around $3,246 in the short term, more than the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level. On the other hand, RSI is below 50, and the current 50 level acts as momentum resistance in the short term. If RSI slopes down, it will signal bearish momentum with more downside ahead. For gold to qualify for bullish expectations, it needs to at least push price action above EMA21, then retrace back to the price channels and finally break above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level to confirm bullish conditions. The upside target could be towards $3,400 in the short term, more like $3,430 – $3,450. For the day, the technical outlook for gold prices tends to lean more towards the downside, with the following notable points listed. Support: 3,310 – 3,300 – 3,292 USD Resistance: 3,340 – 3,350 – 3,371 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3376 - 3374⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3380 →Take Profit 1 3368 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3362 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3280 - 3282⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3276 →Take Profit 1 3288 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3294
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
2
GOLD trades in narrow range after 4 sessions of sharp declineOn Tuesday (July 29), in the Asian market, the spot OANDA:XAUUSD traded in a narrow range after yesterday's sharp decline, and the current gold price is around 3,315 USD/ounce. The OANDA:XAUUSD fell to its lowest level in nearly 3 weeks on Monday, mainly due to the trade agreement reached between the United States and the European Union over the weekend, which boosted the Dollar and risk sentiment. The previous report released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the number of US JOLTS jobs unexpectedly increased in May, reaching the highest level since November last year. The number of JOLTS job vacancies in the US in May was 7.769 million, far exceeding the forecast of all economists surveyed. Looking back at the data in April, the number of JOLTS job vacancies also showed an unexpected increase. The JOLTS jobs report is a closely watched labor market data by the Federal Reserve. In addition, the Conference Board of America's Consumer Confidence Index for July is scheduled to be released on the same day and is expected to be 95.8, compared to the previous value of 93.0. The fundamental pressure that gold is under OANDA:XAUUSD came under pressure yesterday and fell to a near three-week low, mainly due to the trade deal between the United States and the European Union (EU) over the weekend, which boosted the Dollar and risk sentiment. Moreover, US President Trump announced “global tariffs” of 15% to 20% on most countries, a change from his previous statement last week. The deal reached by U.S. President Donald Trump and the European Union late last week will impose a 15% tariff on EU goods, half the rate Trump had threatened, easing fears of a wider trade war. The U.S. and Japan also reached a deal last week, and U.S. and Chinese officials resumed talks in Stockholm, Sweden, this week with the goal of extending the tariff deadline by 90 days. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has been on a four-day losing streak, a decline that threatens bullish expectations as its current position gradually deprives it of any room for further upside. Specifically, gold has recovered from the psychological level of $3,300 but the actual recovery is not significant, while it is under pressure from the EMA21 which is currently the closest resistance. On the other hand, gold has fallen below both the long-term and short-term trend channels. If it continues to sell below the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level, this will confirm a break below the psychological level of $3,300, then the downside target will be around $3,246 in the short term, rather than $3,228. RSI is pointing down, below 50 and still far from the 20-0 area, also showing that in terms of momentum, gold is also under pressure and there is still a lot of room for decline ahead. For gold to be eligible for an increase, it needs to at least bring price activity back above the EMA21, back inside the price channels. On the current daily chart, the technical conditions are more inclined towards the possibility of a decrease. Notable positions will be listed as follows. Support: 3,310 - 3,300 - 3,292 USD Resistance: 3,340 - 3,350 - 3,371 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3355 - 3353⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3359 →Take Profit 1 3347 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3341 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3285 - 3287⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3281 →Take Profit 1 3293 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3299
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
GOLD falls on USD and trade talks, big data weekSpot OANDA:XAUUSD ended its rally this week on Friday (July 25) and closed down nearly 1%, mainly affected by the recovery of the US Dollar TVC:DXY and progress in trade negotiations that weakened safe-haven demand. DXY recovered 0.27% on Friday to close at 97.642, ending a two-week low, making gold less attractive than its direct correlation. Earlier, news of a US-Japan trade deal and a breakthrough in US-EU talks weakened the market's demand for safe-haven assets. For the content of the US-Japan trade deal, readers can review it in the daily publications during the past trading week. Data and Fed Expectations The latest US jobless claims fell to a three-month low, suggesting the job market remains solid. This gives the Federal Reserve reason to maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50%, despite President Trump once again pressuring Powell to cut rates. However, in the short term, the fundamental direction of gold may need to wait for the Federal Reserve to announce more policy signals at its meeting next week. Speculative Longs Hit High Near April Peak Data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that as of the week of July 22, the speculative net long position in COMEX gold rose by 27,211 lots to 170,868 lots, the highest level since April. This shows that as gold prices fall again, buyers are still actively deploying, waiting for more guidance from policy and data. Last Week Review and This Week’s Fundamental Outlook Last week, gold prices initially rose and then fell. Due to risk aversion and volatility in the US dollar, gold prices surpassed the $3,400/ounce mark at the start of the week, but as trade optimism increased and profit-taking emerged, gold prices fell back, trying to stay above $3,300/ounce. Investors will face several major events this week: Federal Reserve policy meeting (Wednesday): Markets expect interest rates to remain unchanged, but Powell’s speech could influence market expectations for a rate cut this year. Macro data will be released in batches: including ADP employment data on Wednesday, PCE price index on Thursday and non-farm payrolls report on Friday. These data will determine the next move of gold. Global central bank trends: The Bank of Canada and the Bank of Japan also hold policy meetings next week. Investors will be watching to see if their policy signals cause volatility in the US dollar and gold prices. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is in a rather important position after 3 consecutive corrective declines. However, the bearish momentum still keeps gold above the base price, which is an important psychological point for the bullish expectation of 3,300 USD. In terms of position and indicators, gold has not completely lost the ability for a bullish outlook. Specifically, gold is still in a short-term rising channel and supported by the EMA21. On the other hand, it is still supported by the horizontal support level of 3,310 USD, followed by the psychological level of 3,300 USD and the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement. Gold will only qualify for a bearish cycle if it sells below the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level, then the target will be around 3,246 USD in the short term, more than the 0.50% Fibonacci level. RSI is sloping down, but has not yet crossed the 50 level, and in the current case, the 50 level acts as a momentum support for the RSI. It shows that there is still room for an increase in price, and if RSI sloping up from 50, it will provide a bullish signal with relatively wide room. If gold rises above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level (3,371 USD), it will be eligible for a new bullish cycle with a target of around 3,400 USD in the short term, more than 3,430 – 3,450 USD then the all-time high. In the coming time, in terms of position and indicators, gold still has a technical outlook leaning more towards the upside and the notable points will be listed as follows. Support: 3,310 – 3,300 – 3,292 USD Resistance: 3,350 – 3,371 – 3,400 – 3,430 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3371 - 3369⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3375 →Take Profit 1 3363 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3357 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3303 - 3305⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3299 →Take Profit 1 3311 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3317
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
5