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GOLD falls then recovers slightly, markets eye jobs dataMainly due to the strengthening of the TVC:DXY , OANDA:XAUUSD have fallen sharply from a near four-week high, with a one-day drop of nearly $30 on Tuesday and a slight recovery in today's Asian trading session on Wednesday, June 4. DXY rebounded from its lowest level in more than a month hit earlier in the session on Tuesday and ended the day up 0.6%, which put some minor pressure on gold in yesterday's session. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' Employment and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released on Tuesday showed that total job vacancies in the United States reached 7.39 million in April, up from 7.2 million in March. Economists had expected job vacancies in the United States to be 7.1 million in April. OANDA:XAUUSD fell on Tuesday as a surprise rise in U.S. job vacancies boosted risk appetite and helped the dollar strengthen, according to Bloomberg. The rise in job vacancies encouraged investors to believe that the U.S. economy remains resilient despite the threat of U.S. President Trump’s tariff agenda. Looking ahead, U.S. employment data, including Friday’s May nonfarm payrolls report, could help guide the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, Bloomberg said. Lower interest rates are generally good for non-interest-bearing gold. Gold traders will be looking ahead to key employment data, including the ADP and nonfarm payrolls reports, to determine the Fed’s policy path. In terms of technical structure, there are no changes to the chart or previous analysis so readers can review it in the previous publication. SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3412 - 3410⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3416 →Take Profit 1 3404 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3398 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3299 - 3301⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3295 →Take Profit 1 3307 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3313
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD surges to hit $3,371 target, continues to aim for $3,400OANDA:XAUUSD rose nearly 3% as US President Trump's tariff threats ratcheted up trade tensions, spurring investor demand for safe-haven assets and sending the dollar sharply lower. US President Trump said on Friday he would raise tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from the US to 50% from the current 25% starting June 4. This has once again disrupted international trade, Reuters reported. A European Commission spokesperson expressed deep regret over the US announcement that it would raise tariffs and said the EU was ready to take countermeasures. Gold prices surged on Monday to a more than four-week high and continued to rise early this morning (Tuesday, June 3) as geopolitical risks from the conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated as US President Donald Trump continued to threaten tariffs. Trump doubled tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50%, effective June 4, adding to jitters in global markets. Ukraine launched its biggest drone attack since the war against Ukraine on Sunday, targeting a wide swath of Russian air bases on the eve of a second round of direct talks between the two countries. The drones, hidden in trucks, penetrated deep into Russia and hit strategic airfields as far away as eastern Siberia. At the same time, Moscow launched one of its longest drone and missile strikes on Kiev. In key US data on Monday, the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for May showed a contraction in business activity. The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for May came in at 48.5, down from 48.7 in April, the lowest reading since November. Investors will also be closely watching comments from Federal Reserve policymakers this week for clues on the path of U.S. interest rates. Gold tends to benefit in low-interest-rate environments and times of geopolitical tension. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD After reaching the target increase at 3,371 USD, gold temporarily decreased slightly but overall it has enough conditions to continue to increase in price towards the next target at 3,400 USD in the coming time. In the short term, gold also formed an upward price channel, which is noted by the price channel, describing the short-term technical trend. Meanwhile, in terms of momentum, RSI is operating above 50, still quite far from the overbought area, showing that there is still a lot of room for growth ahead. For the day, the main outlook for gold is bullish, any pullbacks that fail to break below the confluence of the EMA21 with the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement should be considered only as a short-term correction, or a fresh buying opportunity. Finally, the short-term bullish trend for gold will be focused again on the following positions. Support: 3,326 – 3,300 – 3,292 USD Resistance: 3,371 – 3,400 – 3,435 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3412 - 3410⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3416 →Take Profit 1 3404 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3398 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3324 - 3326⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3320 →Take Profit 1 3332 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3338
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD expected to rebound, key trends, jobs data This week, we have the facts that Trump has stirred up the market, Powell has not changed his stance. With the biggest data of the week, the US Non-Farm Payrolls, to be released, the price of OANDA:XAUUSD is expected to rise again after a week of consolidation. Last Week in News After weeks of tariff-easing talks that sent U.S. stocks soaring, Wall Street has once again been caught up in the constant flux surrounding Trump’s trade regime. This week, a U.S. court also questioned the legality of the White House’s tariffs on global trading partners as the Trump administration ramps up its policy plans. Market sentiment took a turn for the worse on Friday following news about tariffs. US media reported that the White House plans to impose broader sanctions on some foreign technology industries. In addition, Trump said that starting next week, tariffs on imported steel will increase from 25% to 50%. In addition to the tariff headlines, traders also had to contend with weakening US economic data. US consumer spending slowed after recording its strongest month of growth since early 2023 in April. Here are the events markets will focus on in the new week • Next week, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and several members of the board and voting members will speak. • Trump met with Powell for the first time in his second term, and Powell continued to emphasize the independence of monetary policy. The US core PCE inflation rate was 2.1% year-on-year in April, slightly below the expected 2.2%. While that bolsters the case for a rate cut, Fed officials have reiterated their patient stance. Minutes from the May FOMC meeting confirmed that policymakers considered the current economic situation sufficient to delay policy action. Despite the weakening sentiment, traders are still betting on a September rate cut from the Federal Reserve. Key Data: Non-farm data in focus this week The focus of next week’s data will be non-farm payrolls on Friday. The pace of hiring in the US is likely to have slowed in May as households became more cautious, businesses reconsidered investment plans amid shifting trade policies and employers focused on controlling costs. Economists are forecasting a gain of 125,000 in May, according to the median in a Bloomberg survey, after job gains beat expectations in March and April. That would keep the average gain over the past three months at a solid 162,000. The unemployment rate remains at 4.2%. Fed officials are also waiting for clarity on how trade and tax policies will affect the economy and inflation, so they are likely to be cautious about the labor market report. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has been mostly sideways despite the volatility over the past week. The sharpest drop saw gold test the $3,250 support level before recovering to close the week around the confluence of the EMA21 and the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement. On the big picture, gold is still technically bullish with the channel as the main trend, while the near-term supports are the $3,250 level followed by the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement. A sustained move above $3,300 would be viewed as a positive factor going forward. On the momentum front, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 50, which in this case acts as momentum support and is still well away from overbought territory so there is still room for upside. The weekly target is the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level in the short term, rather than the raw price point of $3,400. As long as gold remains within the channel, its main technical trend is bullish, and any declines that do not take gold below the channel should be considered short-term corrections rather than a specific trend. Next week, the technical bullish outlook for gold will be focused again on the following positions. Support: $3,250 – $3,228 Resistance: $3,371 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3337 - 3335⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3341 →Take Profit 1 3329 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3323 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3246 - 3248⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3242 →Take Profit 1 3254 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3260
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Jun 02 - Jun 06]During the week, OANDA:XAUUSD fluctuated in the range of 3,245 - 3,331 USD/oz and closed the week at 3,289 USD/oz. The reason for the sideways gold price was due to the lack of strong information. The US Court of International Trade's ruling on blocking the Trump administration's tariff policy was postponed, while the US PCE index in April increased by only 2.5%, down from the previous month, not enough to influence the FED's policy in the context of prolonged trade instability. If the Court continues to block the tariffs, President Trump can still use several laws to maintain the tariffs: 🔹Section 122 - Trade Act of 1974: Allows for a 15% across-the-board tariff for 150 days; then requires congressional approval to extend. 🔹Section 338 - Trade Act of 1930: Allows for tariffs of up to 50% on goods from countries deemed to discriminate against the United States. 🔹Section 232 - Trade Expansion Act of 1962: Allows for the expansion of tariffs from items such as aluminum, steel, and automobiles to other industries on national security grounds. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that US-China trade negotiations are still at a standstill due to many complicated issues, requiring direct intervention from the leaders of the two countries. Although the tariff war is still complicated, the most tense phase has passed. Therefore, in the short term, gold prices are unlikely to exceed the $3,500/oz mark and will likely continue to adjust and accumulate in the $3,100-$3,400/oz range. Although gold prices are currently stuck in a range, the US economic data released next week, especially the May non-farm payrolls (NFP) report on Friday, could cause a sharp move. The NFP is forecast to come in at 130,000 jobs, down from 177,000 in April. If true, this could reinforce expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates to support the labor market, thereby supporting gold prices. Conversely, if the NFP is stronger than expected, especially higher than last month, the Fed could keep interest rates unchanged, putting downward pressure on gold prices. 📌Technically, on the H4 chart, gold prices are almost moving sideways in a narrowing range, the resistance level is established around 3325 while the support level is around 3245. Next week, gold prices are likely to increase slightly if economic and geopolitical factors continue to support, corresponding to the H1 technical chart, gold prices will increase to 3365-3415 if the price breaks through the Downtrend line and breaks the resistance zone of 3325. In case the gold price falls below the support zone of 3245, the gold price will reverse and decrease. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 3,250 – 3,228USD Resistance: 3,300 – 3,371USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3327 - 3325⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3431 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3203 - 3205⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3199
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
GOLD eases, fundamental support and technical momentumOANDA:XAUUSD fell in early Asian trading on May 30 after Thursday's gains, although it still had room to rise as weak US initial jobless claims data weighed on the US dollar and Trump's tariffs faced more uncertainty. Gold recovered from a weekly low of $3,245 an ounce on Thursday to break above the $3,300 an ounce mark as weak US initial jobless claims data weighed on the US dollar. As of press time, gold had fallen below the full price of $3,300, down $23 on the day and around 0.69% . The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week, adding to pressure on the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates. Data released on Thursday showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose last week, exceeding market expectations. The data showed initial jobless claims in the United States rose by 14,000 to 240,000 in the week ended May 24, compared with estimates of 230,000. According to the minutes of the Federal Reserve's May 6-7 meeting, policymakers acknowledged that they could face "difficult trade-offs" in the coming months, as both inflation and unemployment rise, raising the risk of a recession. Since gold does not yield interest, it typically performs well in low-interest-rate environments. Trump Tariff Ruling Overturned A U.S. trade court ruled on Wednesday that the president lacked the authority to impose tariffs, blocking most of Trump's tariffs, but on Thursday a federal appeals court agreed to the Trump administration's request to suspend the court's ruling. The U.S. government's request for an immediate administrative stay was granted, and the rulings and permanent injunctions issued by the U.S. Court of International Trade in these cases will be temporarily suspended until further notice while the court reviews the relevant motion documents, the Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit said in its ruling. Investors will focus on the US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, on Friday. Gold is seen as a hedge against inflation during times of economic uncertainty, and higher-than-expected PCE data would benefit the US dollar and reduce the appeal of gold, leading to a possible decline in prices. The opposite effect would be seen if PCE data were lower than expected, which would increase the likelihood of an early rate cut by the Fed, leading to a depreciation of the dollar and gold benefiting from expectations of a low-interest rate environment. Technical outlook for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is down but currently the downside momentum has been limited by the initial support area which is the confluence of EMA21 with Fibonacci retracement 0.382%, this support area has been noted by readers in the publications since the beginning of this trading week. Temporarily, gold does not have enough technical conditions to be able to increase in price in the short term, because it is still under pressure from the price channel. However, in terms of the overall and long-term trend, gold still has a main trend of increasing price, a trend noted by the price channel. In terms of momentum, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still holding above 50, with the current RSI position at 50 being considered as the nearest support in terms of momentum. A sustained price action above the 3,300ISD price point would be considered a positive signal, while a break above the channel would qualify the bulls for a short-term target of 3,371USD. For the day, the technical outlook for gold is bullish and the key points to watch are listed below. Support: 3,292USD – 3,250USD Resistance: 3,371USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3342 - 3340⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3346 →Take Profit 1 3334 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3328 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3203 - 3205⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3199 →Take Profit 1 3211 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3217
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
US court blocks Trump tax plan, GOLD falls sharplyOANDA:XAUUSD was sold off heavily in early morning trading on Thursday (May 29), with the price of gold falling to around $3,246/ounce, down more than $40 on the day. Bloomberg reported that gold prices fell for the fourth consecutive day as the market digested news that a US trade court had blocked Trump's global tariff program. Gold prices fell 2% in the previous three trading days. On Wednesday local time, a US federal court blocked the tariff policy announced by US President Trump on April 2, "Liberation Day", and ruled that Trump exceeded his authority and imposed comprehensive tariffs on countries that export more to the United States than they import. The Court of International Trade in Manhattan said the US Constitution gives Congress the exclusive power to regulate trade with other countries, and the emergency powers the president declared to protect the US economy do not override those powers. The lawsuit was filed by the Liberty Center for Justice, a non-profit, nonpartisan litigation organization in the United States, on behalf of small American businesses affected by the tariffs. It is the first major legal challenge to Trump’s tariff policies. The U.S. Court of International Trade has ruled that most of Trump’s tariffs are illegal, sending the dollar even higher. A stronger dollar makes gold less attractive to buyers of safe-haven assets. The Trump administration has filed a notice to appeal the ruling. The US Supreme Court is likely to have the final say in the landmark case, which could affect trillions of dollars in global trade. The court's ruling dealt a blow to a pillar of the Republican Party's economic agenda and could reduce gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold will recover soon after falling to the important support level of 3,250 USD, note that you have read in the previous issues. However, falling below the Fibonacci 0.382% level with EMA21 is a negative signal for bullish expectations as this area becomes the nearest resistance. But overall, gold is still in an uptrend with the channel as the main trend. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching the nearest support at 50, an upward bend from this level would be considered a positive signal in terms of momentum. As long as gold remains in/above the channel, I remain bullish and the notable positions are listed below. Support: 3,250 – 3,228 USD Resistance: 3,392 – 3,300 – 3,371 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3292 - 3290⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3296 →Take Profit 1 3284 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3278 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3203 - 3205⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3199 →Take Profit 1 3211 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3217
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
FOMC minutes, GOLD market may see strong volatilityIn the Asian session, spot OANDA:XAUUSD recovered slightly after yesterday's sharp decline. Gold prices are currently holding price action around the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level, the nearest support point. On this trading day, investors will look at the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, which are expected to cause major volatility in the gold market. On Tuesday, as the Trump administration once again released positive information on trade, the market's risk appetite recovered, reducing demand for safe-haven assets such as gold. On Thursday, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release the minutes of its May monetary policy meeting. At its May 7 monetary policy meeting, the FOMC kept its policy rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the third consecutive time this year. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell continued to maintain his "no rush to cut interest rates" stance. The minutes released this time record the FOMC's detailed views on monetary policy and provide clues to the future direction of interest rate policy. Economists generally believe that with few clear signs of stress in the labor market, Fed officials will be happy to keep rates on hold until changes in trade policy are reflected in the data, and the minutes are expected to reinforce that view. There is a possibility that the tone of the minutes will be more hawkish than expected, which could support the US dollar to some extent, thereby affecting gold prices, but overall it will not create strong pressure. But these are all predictions because I cannot predict what will be in the content of the US FED FOMC minutes, and all the content in the FOMC minutes will be directly reflected in the gold price. Traders need to pay special attention to this event on this trading day. Technical outlook analysis of OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is still struggling to trade above the confluence area as initial support with the emergence of the 21-day moving average (EMA21) with the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement. The technical structure has hardly changed significantly with the trend still tilted to the upside. Holding above the $3,300 base point would be a good sign, on the other hand the $3,371 target would remain as a near-term upside target and a break of the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement on gold would provide the technical conditions for the next upside target around $3,400 in the near-term, followed by $3,435 more than the all-time high of $3,500. The relative strength index RSI is above 50, which is also a good signal in terms of momentum, from the RSI we can see that there is still a lot of room for growth ahead. During the day, the bullish outlook for gold prices will be noticed by the following technical positions. Support: 3,292 – 3,250 USD Resistance: 3,300 – 3,371 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3365 - 3363⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3369 →Take Profit 1 3357 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3351 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3263 - 3265⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3259 →Take Profit 1 3271 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3277
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
Narrow trading range, medium and long term outlook is bullishGeopolitical tensions have pushed gold prices higher, with the medium- to long-term outlook still pointing to upside potential, and a recovery in Chinese demand could provide potential support. OANDA:XAUUSD edged up in early Asian trade on Tuesday. Russia recently launched its largest-ever drone and missile attack on Ukraine, ignoring President Trump’s call to stop the bombing, according to Ukrainian officials. Gold prices fell nearly 1% On Monday, international gold prices were under pressure and fell nearly 1%. Affected by US President Trump's decision to postpone the imposition of a 50% tariff on EU goods, the market's risk-off sentiment has cooled significantly, and the appeal of gold as a traditional safe-haven asset has weakened. The most actively traded June 2025 gold futures closed at $3,342.2/ounce, down $23.6 (-1.45%) on the day, with intraday fluctuations ranging from $3,322.9 to $3,356. Due to the Memorial Day holiday in the United States, COMEX did not announce settlement prices on that day, and the UK and US markets were closed at the same time. Policy changes affect short-term trends, narrow-range trading is likely to bring big changes Trump’s extension of the US-EU trade talks deadline from June 1 to July 9 has directly undermined the market’s safe-haven demand for gold. The holiday-induced liquidity crunch has further exacerbated price volatility. The move is in stark contrast to gold’s performance last Friday, when the OANDA:XAUUSD price recorded its biggest one-day gain in six weeks as Trump threatened to impose tariffs on EU goods and Apple’s iPhones. Geopolitical risks have not disappeared and institutions remain bullish on the outlook Reasons include the ongoing changes in US tariff policy, the continued escalation of the Ukraine geopolitical crisis and fiscal concerns. Data shows that Russia has launched airstrikes on Ukraine for three consecutive nights, including the largest attack since the conflict began in 2022, and the intensity of the war has not abated. With what is available in terms of trade, geopolitical and monetary policy risks, gold still has a lot of upside potential in the coming period. China’s demand is showing signs of recovery, which could be the latest factor The latest trade data showed that mainland China’s gold imports via Hong Kong in April hit their highest level since March last year. The recovery in physical gold purchases in Asia could support lower gold prices, especially amid increasingly volatile investment demand in the West. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Gold traded in a fairly narrow range in the early Asian session today, Tuesday (May 27), with technical conditions still leaning towards the upside, with spot gold currently trading around $3,341/oz. After falling from $3,371, the target price point is the price point of the temporary 0.236% Fibonacci retracement. The bullish momentum of gold prices remains unaffected as the nearest support is the confluence of the (EMA21 with the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement). On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remaining above 50 should be considered a positive signal as the RSI is still quite far from the overbought zone indicating that there is still room for upside ahead. Next, if gold breaks above $3,371 it will be in a position to continue its rally towards the short-term target of $3,400, more so $3,435 and then the all-time high of $3,500. As long as gold remains above the EMA21, it still has a short-term bullish outlook, and the long-term trend continues to be noticed by the price channel. During the day, the gold price's bullish trend will be interested by the following technical positions. Support: 3,300 – 3,292 – 3,250 USD Resistance: 3,371 – 3,400 – 3,435 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3391 - 3389⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3395 →Take Profit 1 3383 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3377 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3283 - 3285⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3279 →Take Profit 1 3291 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3297
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
3
GOLD rises impressively after mid-May declineUS President Trump once again used tariffs and the market's risk-off sentiment suddenly heated up. OANDA:XAUUSD jumped nearly 2% on Friday and the weekly gain reached nearly 5%. OANDA:XAUUSD has grown impressively after a sharp decline in mid-May, taking advantage of safe-haven flows, the recovery was mainly due to growing investor concerns about the sustainability of US government debt. The market will likely continue to react to headlines surrounding the difficult US fiscal situation, trade relations and geopolitics. On Friday local time, US President Trump said on his social media platform "Real Social" that he proposed to impose a 50% tariff on the European Union from June 1. Trump wrote that the main purpose of the establishment of the European Union was to "take advantage of the United States on trade". In addition, on Friday local time, Trump posted on "Real Social" that he had long told Apple CEO Tim Cook that he expected Apple's iPhones sold in the United States to be produced and manufactured in the United States, not in India or anywhere else. Trump said that otherwise, Apple would have to pay at least a 25% tariff to the United States. Assessing the situation surrounding Trump "Trump has been vocal in the past 24 hours, threatening to impose 50% tariffs on the European Union starting June 1, imposing major sanctions on Apple and taking on Harvard University, all of which have weighed on stocks but boosted gold prices. Recurrent tariff concerns, coupled with low liquidity ahead of the long weekend, could exacerbate volatility." Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has achieved its initial upside target at $3,371 which is the technical confluence of the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement with the upper edge of the price channel after receiving support from the confluence of the EMA21 with the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement. In the short term, if gold breaks $3,371 it will tend to continue its bullish trend with the next target being $3,400 in the short term, more so than the last $3,435 which is the all-time high of $3,500. As long as gold remains within/above the channel, the overall trend outlook is bullish, and the immediate support is currently around the $3,300 raw price point area with the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level and EMA21. In case of a sell-off below $3,292, gold could still find short-term support at the $3,250 technical point and the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level. In terms of momentum, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is pointing up from around the 50 mark, with the RSI still well above the overbought zone, suggesting room for further upside. Looking ahead, the overall technical outlook for gold is bullish, with key points to watch out for as follows. Support: $3,300 – $3,292 – $3,250 Resistance: $3,371 – $3,400 – $3,435 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3391 - 3389⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3395 →Take Profit 1 3383 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3377 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3299 - 3301⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3295 →Take Profit 1 3307 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3313
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [May 26 - May 30]This week, the price of OANDA:XAUUSD increased from 3,204 USD/oz to 3,365 USD/oz, and closed the week at 3,357 USD/oz. The reason for the increase in gold price this week is due to: 🔹Moody's downgrades US credit rating, causing USD to fall. 🔹Unsuccessful US bond auction raises concerns about economic instability. 🔹President Trump threatens to raise tariffs on European goods, raising concerns about trade war. 🔹Escalating tensions in Ukraine, Middle East, increasing demand for safe haven gold. Gold prices next week may fluctuate in both directions, meaning they will adjust and accumulate to wait for the results of US-China trade negotiations, US economic data, and whether Mr. Trump will decide to impose tariffs on Europe or not? Next week, the US will release many important economic data, including: ➡️Durable Goods Orders (Tuesday), ➡️Minutes of the FED's May Policy Meeting (Wednesday), ➡️PCE Inflation Index (Friday). With the Trump administration's tariff policy, inflationary pressures in the US have been under a lot of pressure. If the core PCE index in April increases more than expected, it may cause the FED to continue to keep interest rates unchanged at its July meeting. In this scenario, the USD may increase again, causing gold prices to be under pressure to adjust next week. However, gold prices next week will hardly decrease sharply if the PCE increases, because gold prices next week are still supported by other factors such as tariffs, geopolitical conflicts, etc. 📌Technically, on the H4 chart, gold prices are starting to break the Downtrend line and tend to move closer to the resistance level of 3432. Meanwhile, support is established around the dynamic resistance level of 3300. The gold price trend next week is likely to lean towards a slight increase scenario provided that the USD does not recover strongly and geopolitical tensions continue. However, investors need to be cautious with corrections due to profit-taking or sudden changes due to macroeconomic information. Gold prices next week may fluctuate in the range of 3300-3450. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 3,300 – 3,292 – 3,250USD Resistance: 3,371 – 3,400 – 3,435USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3451 - 3449⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3455 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3299 - 3301⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3295
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD ends 3 consecutive days of increase, still positiveOANDA:XAUUSD fell on Thursday (May 22), ending a three-day winning streak and continued to decline slightly in early Asian trading today (May 23), mainly due to a recovery in the US dollar and profit-taking by investors after gold prices hit a two-week high. However, the outlook for gold prices remains positive due to geopolitical conflicts. Sources revealed that Israel is preparing to attack Iran's nuclear facilities if negotiations between Iran and the United States fail. Readers can review these specific news in previous editions or regular short updates. Data released by S&P Global on Thursday showed that the preliminary reading of the U.S. manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 52.3 in May from 50.2 in April, beating expectations of 50.1. The preliminary U.S. services PMI rose to 52.3 in May, compared to both the previous and expected readings of 50.8. Initial jobless claims in the United States were 227,000 in the week ending May 17, down from 229,000 in the previous week and below expectations of 230,000, suggesting the labor market remains solid. The US House of Representatives passed President Trump's "big and beautiful" tax reform proposal on Thursday. According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the proposal would increase US debt by $3.8 trillion over the next decade to $36.2 trillion. Gold is often seen as a store of value during times of political and financial uncertainty. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Although gold fell yesterday, its current position still has enough conditions to increase towards the target at $3,371, which is the price point of the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement. The nearest support to watch is the confluence of the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement with the 21-day moving average (EMA21), and even if gold falls short-term below this confluence, it can still increase with the following supports at $3,250, followed by the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement. The relative strength index (RSI) remains above 50, which is a positive signal for the bullish momentum. For the day, the technical outlook for gold is tilted to the upside and the points to watch are listed as follows. Support: $3,300 – $3,292 Resistance: $3,371 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3367 - 3365⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3371 →Take Profit 1 3359 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3353 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3274 - 3276⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3270 →Take Profit 1 3282 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3288
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
Weak USD and renewed safe-haven demand support GOLD surgeOANDA:XAUUSD surged to a one-week high. A weak US dollar and safe-haven demand amid economic and geopolitical uncertainty boosted gold prices. Gold prices rose and held above $3,300 an ounce as traders grew increasingly concerned about the US tax reform vote and escalating tensions in the Middle East. In addition, Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating and the depreciation of the US dollar also boosted safe-haven demand for gold. CNN reported Tuesday, citing multiple sources, that the latest intelligence suggests Israel is preparing to launch airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, even as negotiations between the Trump administration and Iran over the country's uranium enrichment program continue. Axios, a prominent U.S. news website, reported Wednesday local time that two Israeli sources with knowledge of the negotiations told Axios that Israel is preparing to strike Iran's nuclear facilities quickly if negotiations between the United States and Iran fall apart. Israeli intelligence has shifted in recent days from believing a nuclear deal was imminent to believing that talks could soon collapse, sources said. Gold, considered a safe investment amid economic and geopolitical uncertainty, hit a record high of $3,500.05 an ounce last month. US stocks plunged on Wednesday and US Treasury yields jumped as investors focused on congressional debate over President Trump’s proposed tax reform, raising concerns that the country’s massive debt will continue to rise. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD After gold broke the technical confluence of the 21-day moving average (EMA21) with the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement, it has qualified for further upside to the next target expected at $3,371, the price point of the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement. Looking ahead, in the short term, gold has qualified for a new bullish cycle with the nearest support at the raw price point of $3,300 followed by $3,292. A bullish breakout of $3,371 would open the door to a new target at the raw price point of $3,400 in the short term, followed by $3,435. As noted to readers throughout the publications since the beginning of the year, the trend of gold prices is fixed by the rising price channel, corrections can still take place negatively but the trend has not changed. "In fact, I have also encountered many failures when the market fluctuated too much recently, causing me to not believe in the rising price structure at times." Trading is not just about fundamentals or technicals, it depends more on trading psychology. With the current market, experienced traders will still often encounter psychological problems, such as me, who is writing this article to you. Finally, the short-term uptrend of gold prices in the main uptrend will be noted by the following notable levels. Support: 3,300 – 3,292 – 3,250 USD Resistance: 3,371 – 3,435 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3367 - 3365⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3371 →Take Profit 1 3359 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3353 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3265 - 3267⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3261 →Take Profit 1 3273 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3279
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
2
GOLD spikes on geopolitics, not enough for new bull runIn the early trading session this morning (May 21), the spot OANDA:XAUUSD suddenly skyrocketed in the short term, surpassing the $3,300/ounce mark for the first time since May 9. In addition, the price of WTI crude oil also skyrocketed, at one point increasing by 3%. US media reported that US intelligence agencies had detected that Israel was preparing to attack Iran's nuclear facilities. After the price increase on the previous trading day, the gold price continued to skyrocket to $3,304.18/ounce in the early trading session on Wednesday in Asia. Because gold is considered a safe asset in times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty, new signs of geopolitical instability once again supported the increase in gold prices. CNN reported Tuesday local time that several US officials told CNN that new information obtained by the US shows that Israel is preparing to attack Iran's nuclear facilities even as the Trump administration seeks a diplomatic deal with Tehran. Such an attack would be a clear break with President Donald Trump, U.S. officials said. It could also spark a broader conflict in the Middle East, something the United States has tried to avoid since the 2023 Gaza war ratcheted up tensions. The growing concern stems not only from messages from senior Israeli officials, both public and private, that Israel is considering such a move, but also from intercepted Israeli communications and observations of Israeli military activity that could indicate an Israeli strike is imminent, multiple sources familiar with the intelligence said. Geopolitical factors also played a role in pushing gold higher, as the failure to reach a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine and rising tensions in the Middle East could prompt investors to hold onto gold. The dollar weakened on Tuesday after Moody's downgraded the United States' top triple-A credit rating. Fed officials were also cautious about the economic outlook, hurt by the downgrade. A weaker US dollar means gold becomes more attractive. Analysis of the technical outlook for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold surged to a technical confluence of key resistance formed by the location of the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement and the 21-day EMA. At this point, gold has not completely broken out of the price action around the $3,300 base point. If gold breaks above and sustains above the $3,300 base point, it will be in a position to continue to rise with a target of around $3,371 in the short term. On the other hand, a sell-off below the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement would open the door for a retest of the $3,250 technical level followed by the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement. Currently, the active position is not yet in line for a new bullish cycle. Therefore, the technical outlook for gold for the day is a retest of $3,250 in the short term, followed by $3,228. The notable positions for intraday downside correction expectations are listed below. Support: $3,250 – $3,228 Resistance: $3,331 – $3,345 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3356 - 3354⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3360 →Take Profit 1 3348 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3342 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3270 - 3272⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3266 →Take Profit 1 3278 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3284
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
Positive market, GOLD drops to 3,220 USD in short termOANDA:XAUUSD fell to $3,220/oz, down 0.61% on the day at press time, resuming a bearish trend and cooling demand for safe-haven assets. US President Trump spoke by phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin, with Trump saying Russia wants to reach a major trade deal with the United States and will immediately begin ceasefire negotiations with Ukraine. Ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech, central bank officials remained on the sidelines, with the likelihood of a rate cut in the summer very low. Trump said Russia wants to make a “big” trade deal with the United States. Trump posted on his Truth Social account that he spoke with Putin on Monday to discuss the deal. “I just had a two hour phone call with Putin and I think it went very well.” Trump said he discussed a number of issues with Putin, primarily the ceasefire agreement between Putin and Ukraine. “Russia and Ukraine will immediately begin negotiations to achieve a ceasefire and, more importantly, an end to the war,” Trump wrote. “Both sides will negotiate the terms of this agreement, which is only possible because they have details of the negotiations that others do not. The tone and atmosphere of the talks were very good.” After announcing the ceasefire, Trump also wrote that Putin was looking for a trade deal with the United States. “Russia wants to engage in massive trade with the United States after this disastrous ‘bloodbath’ is over, and I agree. Russia has a tremendous opportunity to create many jobs and wealth. The potential is limitless.” Trump also said that Ukraine could also benefit from a potential trade deal with the United States. He even added that the Vatican, represented by the new pope, would be willing to hold trade/ceasefire talks. Recent cooperative initiatives between Putin and Trump, including the US President receiving a painting from Putin, have raised questions about how the US-Russia axis will affect trade dynamics between the two countries. The two countries have maintained active communication since Trump took office in January. Given the current global tensions, a new US-Russia trade deal would be a significant step forward. Trump discussed peace in Ukraine with Putin on Monday after the US said it may have to pull out of a stalemate over ending Europe’s bloodiest conflict since World War II. Looking ahead, markets are focused on a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, with traders now betting that the chances of a rate cut in the summer are extremely low. The more positive news the market gets, the more pressure gold will face as cooling safe-haven demand will send investors looking for riskier assets. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD As noted to readers in previous publications since gold was sold below EMA21, up to now, it still has a short-term technical trend leaning towards the downside. Specifically, gold has repeatedly failed to overcome the resistance level of 3,250 USD and has decreased in price every time it approaches this level. And in terms of momentum, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below 50, far from the oversold zone, indicating that there is still room for momentum to decline ahead. For gold to be in a position to enter a new bullish cycle, the most important condition is that it needs to break above the $3,300 base level then target around $3,371 in the short term. On the other hand, once gold breaks below the $3,200 support point it could continue to decline with the target then around the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement in the short term. For the rest of the day, the technical outlook for gold is bearish with notable positions listed as follows. Support: $3,200 – $3,163 – $3,120 Resistance: $3,250 – $3,292 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3226 - 3224⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3230 →Take Profit 1 3218 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3212 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3150 - 3152⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3146 →Take Profit 1 3158 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3164
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD surges 1.5% then falls, US credit rating downgradedOANDA:XAUUSD have recovered from their biggest weekly decline in six months, as growing concerns about the US economic outlook and budget deficit boosted demand for safe-haven assets. Spot gold rose 1.5% to $3,249.80 an ounce in early Asian trading before paring losses, up about 0.55% on the day at press time. Moody's Ratings announced late Friday that it had removed the U.S. government's top credit rating, downgrading the country from Aaa to Aa1. Moody's blamed successive U.S. presidents and lawmakers for the growing budget deficit, although Moody's said the situation showed little sign of improving. "While we recognize that the United States has significant economic and fiscal strength, we believe that these strengths are no longer sufficient to fully offset the deterioration in fiscal metrics," Moody's said in a statement. This “black swan” event has raised concerns about the US financial situation. Safe-haven buying has fueled a sharp rise in gold prices. In addition, the weakening of the US dollar has also benefited the gold price trend. This downgrade is likely to add to Wall Street’s growing concerns about the US government bond market. While rising yields typically boost their respective currencies, debt concerns could increase skepticism about the USD. Gold prices have been volatile in recent months. Last week, gold posted its biggest weekly decline since November as geopolitical tensions eased. The move followed a sharp rally in gold, which topped $3,500 an ounce for the first time last month. Gold is still up more than 20% this year, driven by global conflicts, tariffs from US President Donald Trump and flows into exchange-traded funds. Technical outlook OANDA:XAUUSD After gold reached the target resistance of 3,250 USD, it weakened slightly again, this resistance level is noted by readers in the weekly publication. In the short term, gold still has a bearish outlook with the nearest resistance at 3,250 USD followed by the confluence of EMA21 and Fibonacci retracement 0.382%. In terms of momentum, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still below 50, 50 is now acting as resistance while the RSI is still quite far from the oversold zone, indicating that there is still room for a decline in momentum ahead. As long as gold remains below the 21 EMA, it remains bearish in the short term and a break below $3,200 would continue to push gold lower with a target of around $3,163 in the short term. For gold to qualify for the upside, it needs to move above the 21 EMA, break the $3,300 base point and then target around $3,371 in the short term. Intraday, the bearish outlook for gold in the short term will be highlighted again by the following levels. Support: $3,200 – $3,163 Resistance: $3,250 – $3,292 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3261 - 3259⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3265 →Take Profit 1 3253 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3247 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3199 - 3201⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3195 →Take Profit 1 3207 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3213
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [May 19 - May 23]During the week, OANDA:XAUUSD fluctuated strongly, falling from $3,292/oz to $3,120/oz and then recovering to $3,202/oz. The main reason was that the US and China reached a trade agreement, according to which the two sides agreed to significantly reduce tariffs from May 14, creating positive sentiment for the market. This week’s gold sell-off was the steepest since mid-June 2021, even steeper than the drop after Donald Trump’s election victory in November 2024. President Trump said there are currently about 150 partners who want to negotiate trade with the US, but the US cannot handle them all at once. In the next 2-3 weeks, the US will announce the export tax rates that partners will have to pay when selling to the US market. The Trump administration will impose specific tariffs on partners that have not yet negotiated with the US, at what level, has not been specifically announced. If the new tariffs remain as high as the initial list of reciprocal tariffs, there is a risk that many partners will retaliate, making the tariff war hotter, pushing gold prices up sharply. On the contrary, if the new tariffs are much lower than the initially announced tariffs, gold prices may only increase moderately, then continue to adjust. After the recent sharp sell-off, profit-taking sentiment is still dominating the market. However, safe-haven demand remains strong due to geopolitical tensions that have not yet ended and concerns about a global economic recession. 📌The gold price trend next week is likely to fluctuate in the range of 3,055 - 3,270 USD/ounce, with a slight decrease scenario being preferred due to profit-taking pressure and the potential recovery of the USD. However, if there is a positive signal from the Fed policy or increased geopolitical instability, the gold price may recover to the range of 3,260 - 3,270 USD/ounce. Investors need to closely monitor economic data and geopolitical fluctuations to make appropriate decisions. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 3,162 – 3,100 USD Resistance: 3,228 – 3,250 – 3,292 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3271 - 3269⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3275 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3054 - 3056⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3050
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
GOLD falls to support $3,200, recovery momentum weakensOANDA:XAUUSD rebounded sharply on Thursday's trading day and weakened rapidly in the first half of the Asian trading session today, Friday (May 16). Gold is currently trading at $3,210/oz, equivalent to a decrease of $30 on the day, down about 0.93% as of the time of writing. OANDA:XAUUSD accelerated their recovery on Thursday as weak US economic data fueled expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and weighed on the US dollar. At the same time, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s absence from Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Turkey also prompted some safe-haven buying. Information surrounding the Russia-Ukraine talks is brought to readers through brief comments during the day. Data released on Thursday showed that the US producer price index (PPI) unexpectedly fell in April and retail sales growth slowed significantly, while the consumer price index (CPI) for April released earlier in the week rose less than expected. The data showed that the US PPI unexpectedly fell 0.5% month-over-month in April, while the market expected a growth of 0.2%; the core PPI fell 0.4%, also below the expected growth of 0.3%. Meanwhile, US retail sales increased slightly by 0.1% month-over-month in April, slowing significantly from March's 1.7%. Thursday’s data provided more room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and market expectations to become more dovish. Gold itself does not generate interest rates, and when rates fall, it increases the appeal of gold. However, the impact from the data was not sustainable enough to generate a stronger rally, while new developments around the Russia-Ukraine talks are showing a positive trend. Gold is not benefiting from a risk-off environment. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart in the short term, gold is still in a position to decline in the short term with pressure from the EMA21 and the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement point as the nearest resistance. Meanwhile, in terms of momentum, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also showing signs of folding as it retests the 50 level, which is noted as the closest resistance in terms of momentum to the current position of the RSI. For now, the downside is also limited by the $3,200 base level, which is currently the nearest support and once it is broken below, gold is likely to continue its decline with a target of around $3,163 in the short term, which is the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level, rather than $3,120. For the day, gold still has a bearish technical outlook with the current positions listed below. Support: $3,200 – $3,163 – $3,120 Resistance: $3,250 – $3,292 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3286 - 3284⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3290 →Take Profit 1 3278 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3272 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3159 - 3161⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3155 →Take Profit 1 3167 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3173
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
GOLD is supported short, trend is bearishThe bargain-hunting wave has supported OANDA:XAUUSD in the short term. In addition, weaker-than-expected US CPI in April, cooling expectations for a Fed rate cut, a fall in the US Dollar Index from a one-month high, and geopolitical concerns have all provided bullish momentum for gold. Spot gold was trading in a narrow range in early trading on Wednesday (May 14), currently trading around $3,245/ounce. Inflation data Data from the US Labor Department, a key indicator of Federal Reserve policy, released on Tuesday showed that the CPI rose just 0.2% month-on-month in April, below the expected 0.3%. This mild inflation report is like a tonic, injecting new life into gold prices. This data will not hinder the Fed's interest rate cut, and the market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates again in September. It is worth noting that while inflationary pressures are not high now, inflation could pick up again in the coming months as the impact of tariffs becomes clear. Such expectations are prompting many investors to turn to gold as an inflation hedge. On the same day on Tuesday, Do Nam Trung once again called on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates On Tuesday, Trump reiterated his call for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, saying that the prices of gasoline, groceries and “almost everything else” are falling. Geopolitics: “Safe Haven Fire” In addition to economic factors, continued tensions in the global geopolitical situation also provide strong support for gold. The possible face-to-face talks between Ukrainian President Zelensky and Russian President Putin are fraught with uncertainty, and despite a temporary ceasefire in the India-Pakistan conflict, the underlying tensions between the two sides have not changed. These uncertainties mean that gold still has the potential to rise in price once market risks suddenly occur. Looking Ahead: Gold’s Challenges Looking ahead, gold faces three key variables: • First, the further progress of the Sino-US trade talks. Although the two sides have reached a 90-day truce, the comprehensive tariff policy remains in effect. • Second, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction. A soft performance in inflation data could pave the way for a rate cut. • Finally, global geopolitical risks, especially the developments in the Russia-Ukraine peace talks and the India-Pakistan conflict. There is relatively little economic data on the trading day. US Secretary of State Rubio will attend the informal meeting of NATO foreign ministers from May 14 to 16 to discuss NATO security priorities, including increased defense spending and ending the Russia-Ukraine war. In addition, several Federal Reserve officials will speak, which investors should pay attention to. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is still trading in a narrow range with short-term conditions leaning towards the downside with the main pressure from the EMA21. However, the downside momentum is currently limited by the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level, which is also the nearest support. If gold is sold below $3,228, it will have the prospect of continuing to decline with the next target around $3,163 in the short term. For gold to resume its uptrend, the necessary condition is that the price action needs to be pushed above the EMA21 and break above the raw price level of 3,300 USD. Although the main trend from the price channel has not been broken yet, the short-term outlook for gold is bearish, and the notable positions will also be listed as follows. Support: 3,228 – 3,200 – 3,163 USD Resistance: 3,245 – 3,292 – 3,300 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3284 - 3282⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3288 →Take Profit 1 3276 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3370 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3165 - 3167⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3161 →Take Profit 1 3173 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3179
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
Markets turn their attention to US CPISafe-haven OANDA:XAUUSD fell nearly 3% on Monday (May 12) and continued to decline slightly in early trading on Tuesday (May 13), mainly due to the easing of market risk sentiment after the United States and China announced a temporary “ceasefire” in their trade war. According to a joint statement released by the United States and China on Monday, the United States will reduce the tariffs imposed on Chinese goods in April this year from 145% to 30%, and China will reduce the tariffs imposed on American goods from 125% to 10%. The new measures will take effect in 90 days. Gold prices fell more than 3% on Monday as risk sentiment improved after the US and China agreed to roll back tariffs for 90 days during talks over the weekend. This sent the US dollar soaring to its highest level in more than a month and global stocks rebounding strongly after the US and China reached an interim tariff deal. Meanwhile, gold sold off sharply as market sentiment began to shift back to risk assets, making the yellow metal less attractive. China and the United States announced in Geneva, Switzerland, that they have reached an important economic and trade agreement. Both sides will also further reduce tariffs on each other's goods, with the total reduction exceeding 100%. The breakthrough marks a major turning point in the years-long tariff war between China and the United States. After implementing the measures, the two sides will establish a mechanism to continue negotiations on economic and trade relations, Xinhua News Agency reported. Investors' attention turns to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due out on Tuesday for a gauge of the Federal Reserve's policy direction. Other key US data this week include the Producer Price Index (PPI) and retail sales. Economists expect the US CPI to have risen by 2.4% year-on-year in April. Excluding volatile items, the core CPI growth rate is expected to have been unchanged at 2.8% year-on-year. While the underlying market is under pressure from positive factors from trade to geopolitics, we (individual investors in the short term) still need to pay special attention to the erratic behavior of Do Nam Trung. A status line that brings tariff risks will push gold to increase strongly again. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, a drop below the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level would be a bullish signal for further downside with a target of around $3,163 in the short term, which is where the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level is located. In terms of momentum, gold is showing bearish signals as the RSI falls below 50 and the next target is the overbought zone, with the current RSI position, gold still has a lot of room to fall. The most important condition for gold to be able to be assessed to increase in price again is that it needs to bring the price activity above the base price of 3,300 USD, then the target could be 3,371 USD. Otherwise, with the current market position and context, the short-term downtrend is dominant. During the day, the possibility of a decline in gold prices will be noticed by the following technical positions. Support: 3,228 - 3,200 - 3,163 USD Resistance: 3,245 - 3,267 - 3,292 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3283 - 3281⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3287 →Take Profit 1 3275 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3369 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3220 - 3222⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3216 →Take Profit 1 3228 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3234
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [May 12 - May 16]This week, the international OANDA:XAUUSD increased from 3,210 USD/oz to 3,434 USD/oz, but immediately after that, the gold price dropped sharply to 3,274 USD/oz and closed this week at 3,325 USD/oz. The reason why the gold price was sold off at the end of the week was because the FED said it would not rush to cut interest rates, because inflation is potentially at risk of increasing due to the impact of tariffs from the Trump administration, while the US economy, especially the labor market, is also at risk of decline. This risks pushing the US economy into a state of stagflation. In addition, after the US and UK reached a trade agreement, the US side said that there will be more trade agreements with major economies in the near future. Notably, this weekend, the US and China also entered the first round of trade negotiations under President Trump in his second term in Switzerland. This has made many investors concerned that the cooling of the trade war will reduce the role of gold as a safe haven. Factors affecting gold prices next week: Federal Reserve (Fed) policy: The Fed currently keeps interest rates at 4.25% - 4.5%, and the market is waiting for new economic data (such as May CPI and employment report). If inflation continues to decline or there are signs that the Fed will cut interest rates in the near future, gold prices may be strongly supported. On the contrary, if the Fed maintains a "hawkish" stance (keeping interest rates high), gold prices may be under downward pressure. US-China trade negotiations: Optimism about the possibility of a trade agreement between the US and China (expected to be negotiated in Switzerland) is reducing the demand for safe haven gold. If there is positive news (forecast: tax reduction from 145% to 80%), gold prices may adjust down. On the contrary, if negotiations fail or tensions escalate, gold will increase sharply. Global instability: Geopolitical risks (such as Middle East conflicts, Russia-Ukraine tensions, India-Pakistan tensions) are still the driving force supporting gold prices. If there are unexpected developments, gold demand will increase. 📌Technically, gold prices next week are likely to fluctuate within the range of 3,200 - 3,400 USD/ounce, with the base scenario being sideways or slightly increasing. If gold breaks the trendline and surpasses the resistance level of 3435, the next level is that gold can conquer the old peak or create a new high. Meanwhile, if the support level of 3200 is broken, gold prices are at risk of falling deeply below the threshold of 3,100 USD/oz. However, factors such as US economic data, Fed policy, and developments in US-China negotiations will be the key to determining the trend. Investors need to closely monitor these events and apply flexible trading strategies. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 3,300 – 3,292 – 3,267USD Resistance: 3,351 – 3,371USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3402 - 3400⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3406 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3215 - 3217⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3211
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD falls sharply then recovers slightly from key confluenceOANDA:XAUUSD fell sharply and recovered slightly, as expectations of more such deals increased after US President Donald Trump announced a “groundbreaking” trade deal with the UK, undermining the metal’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. The US and UK have reached a deal and markets are expecting more “tariff-free” avenues Trump and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer jointly announce the signing of a trade deal • The UK will reduce tariffs on US goods from 5.1% to 1.8%; • The US will maintain a uniform tariff of 10% on UK imports; • The UK will further ease market access for US goods. The US and China will continue high-level talks this Saturday US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will meet with top Chinese economic officials in Switzerland on Saturday to discuss the outlook for trade relations. Gold prices have hit record highs in recent months, largely due to global tensions caused by Trump's tariff policies. China's central bank allows banks to buy foreign currency to import gold, signaling potential support The People's Bank of China has approved commercial banks to buy foreign currency in the latest quota to pay for gold imports, supporting the possibility of increased physical gold demand in the market in the future. With the implementation of the US-UK agreement, the recovery of risk appetite in the market and the approaching US-China negotiations, the safe-haven demand for gold has temporarily eased, and technical downward pressure has also emerged. In addition, traders need to pay special attention to geopolitical developments with the focus on Russia - Ukraine when Ukraine has taken actions despite Russia's warnings on May 9. Any escalation of the conflict will immediately support gold's sudden price increase. Analysis of OANDA:XAUUSD technical outlook On the daily chart, after a sharp decline from the weekly target of $3,430, gold's decline has paused and recovered slightly from the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level. The area around $3,292 is also an important support area as it is a confluence of important technical support factors, with the appearance of EMA21 (major support), the lower edge of the price channel which is the short-term trend price channel and the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level. As long as gold remains above $3,292, it still has a bullish outlook in the short term, and in case gold falls below this level, it will likely test technical support at $3,267 in the short term, more than $3,245. For the day, with the current position, gold still has a bullish outlook, and the notable points will be listed as follows. Support: $3,300 – $3,292 – $3,267 Resistance: $3,351 – $3,371 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3334 - 3332⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3338 →Take Profit 1 3326 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3320 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3259 - 3261⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3255 →Take Profit 1 3267 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3273
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
Down nearly 2% on Wednesday, GOLD still rebounds quickly on riskOANDA:XAUUSD fell nearly 2% on Wednesday (May 7), mainly due to a stronger US dollar and optimism from upcoming trade talks between the United States and China, while the Federal Reserve's "standstill" also added pressure on gold prices. However, it was supported by escalating geopolitical risks. On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, citing increasing uncertainty about the economic outlook and rising risks to both maximum employment and price stability. “Uncertainties about the economic outlook continue to increase,” the FOMC said in its post-meeting statement. “The Committee is concerned about bilateral risks to its dual mandate and sees increasing risks to unemployment and inflation.” Federal Reserve Chairman Powell maintained a neutral tone, saying the current policy stance was appropriate and the Fed was in no rush to adjust interest rates. He stressed that the Fed was prepared to act “quickly as needed” if circumstances changed, but warned that the Fed’s goals would not be fully achieved if tariffs remained in place. Powell added that if either side of the dual mandate deviates too much, the Fed will evaluate which policy tool to use to achieve rebalancing. When asked which mandate, inflation or employment, should receive more attention, he said it was too early to tell. The market consensus remains that the Fed will not cut rates before July. In a higher interest rate environment, non-interest-bearing gold is often under pressure. Big news on China-US trade talks China and the US announced that US Treasury Secretary Besant and US Trade Representative Greer will travel to Switzerland to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. The talks are the first since US President Donald Trump imposed comprehensive tariffs on China and have raised optimism that the two largest economies can reach a deal. On Wednesday, a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce answered reporters' questions about the high-level economic and trade negotiations between China and the United States. The spokesperson said China has decided to cooperate with the United States. Vice Premier He Lifeng, as head of the China-US economic and trade negotiation delegation, will hold talks with his US counterpart, US Treasury Secretary Benson, during his visit to Switzerland. - Bloomberg - India-Pakistan tensions spiral after attack, risk of further escalation fuels demand for safe havens India's airstrike on Pakistan has stoked tensions, raising fears of a full-blown war between the two nuclear-armed nations. India launched missiles at nine locations in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir early on May 7 in response to a shooting that killed 26 tourists in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, two weeks ago. The Indian Ministry of Defense said its forces struck facilities used by "terrorist groups" to carry out the Pahalgam attack. The Indian Air Force has mobilized many modern weapons, including Rafale multi-role fighters carrying SCALP-EG stealth cruise missiles and AASM Hammer extended-range guided bombs and cruise missiles. The target coordinates were provided to the forces participating in the campaign by Indian intelligence agencies. Images released by the media show the moment the series of missiles crashed into the target, creating large fire circles and violent explosions. Pakistan said at least 26 people were killed in this attack. -According to Vnexpress - Gold is an asset that often benefits first when market risks appear, and India is also a leading gold-using country in the world. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD After yesterday's decline, gold continues to receive support from the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement area with horizontal support at $3,350 as noted by readers in yesterday's edition and it is now also aiming for a target of $3,430. Once gold breaks $3,430 it will be in a position to continue its rally with a target of around (all-time high) in the short term. Technical factors are completely bullish, from the short-term trend noted by the rising price channel and the long-term trend from the rising price channel. On the other hand, the nearest support is also the EMA21. The relative strength index RSI is still quite far from the 80 level and the overbought area, indicating that there is still room for growth ahead and gold is likely to continue to increase in terms of momentum in the coming time. During the day, the main bullish outlook for gold prices in terms of technology will be noted again by the following levels. Support: 3,371 – 3,350 USD Resistance: 3,430 – 3,500 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3440 - 3438⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3444 →Take Profit 1 3432 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3426 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3350 - 3352⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3346 →Take Profit 1 3358 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3364
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
2
US-China optimism, GOLD falls sharply from target levelIn early morning trading on Wednesday (May 7), spot OANDA:XAUUSD fell sharply by nearly 2%. Bloomberg said that despite the escalation of military conflict between India and Pakistan, signs of progress in trade negotiations between the United States and China have limited demand for safe-haven assets. Previously, gold prices had surged for two consecutive trading days. Spot gold prices rose nearly 3% on Tuesday. China and the United States announced that U.S. Treasury Secretary Besant and U.S. Trade Representative Greer will travel to Switzerland to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. Today (Wednesday), a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce answered reporters' questions about the high-level economic and trade negotiations between China and the United States. The spokesperson said that China has decided to cooperate with the United States. Vice Premier He Lifeng, as head of the China-US economic and trade negotiation team, will hold talks with his US counterpart, US Treasury Secretary Benson, during a visit to Switzerland. It is the first such meeting since US President Donald Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on China and has raised optimism that the two largest economies could reach a deal. Gold prices have risen nearly 30% this year as Trump’s aggressive trade and geopolitical policies have caused widespread market turmoil and investors have sought safe havens. Gold hit a record high of $3,500 an ounce in April but has fallen in recent weeks. The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision later Wednesday, and policymakers are expected to keep rates unchanged despite Trump’s repeated criticism of Fed Chair Powell for not cutting rates. Fed officials have often stressed the need to wait and see how the trade policies implemented last month will affect the economy. Lower borrowing costs tend to be good for gold. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD After gold achieved the target increase noted by readers in yesterday's edition at 3,430 USD, it has fallen significantly in the early trading session today (7 May). But the downside momentum is also limited by the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, which is noted as the nearest support level and for gold to continue to increase in price, it needs to achieve the condition of recovering and breaking the 3,430 USD level after which traders can think about the 3,500 USD level in the near future. During the day, in the overall picture, gold still has a bullish outlook with the long-term rising price channel and the short-term rising price channel as the trend and support from the EMA21 moving average. As long as gold remains above the EMA21 and within/above the aforementioned price channels, the overall outlook remains bullish, but you should also note that in the current market environment, price movements of 2-3%/day are very common, so technical positions need to be firmly established (preferably at confluences where multiple indicators are present). My notable positions will be listed as follows. Support: 3,371 – 3,350 USD Resistance: 3,400 – 3,430 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3440 - 3438⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3444 →Take Profit 1 3432 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3426 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3337 - 3339⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3333 →Take Profit 1 3345 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3351
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading