Get started

YM1!

DOW JONES holding the 1D MA50 in a repeat of the COVID recovery!The Dow Jones Index (DJI) hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) yesterday and today shows the first signs of recovery. The drop from the August 16 High has been substantial, almost -7% but so has the rise since the June 17 low (more than +15%), so profit taking was natural, especially since the High exceeded the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The first Resistance on the short-term is the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) which is being tested at the moment. On the long-term though, this pull-back to the 1D MA50 after such a strong rally, resembles the initial recovery of March - June 2020 from the COVID crash. Especially considering also that the RSI and MACD on the 1W time-frame have been printing identical patterns, with the MACD being on a Bullish Cross since July 27 as it did on May 22 2020! From June 15 2020 to July 21 2020, the 1D MA50 held as Support four times and it catapulted Dow to the 1.15 Fibonacci extension. A repeat of that pattern sets the current medium-term target exactly on the 35000 level. Notice also that as on June 23 2020, Dow is currently close to having the 1D MA50 cross above the 1D MA100, which is a Bullish Cross formation and that would be the first time since then! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ULong
by TradingShot
5
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 AUG 29 Week US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 AUG 29 Week Last week's 33205 rejection provided short opportunity. Possible scenarios: 1) Long at 31780 support 2) Short on rejection of 32546 / 31780 / retracement on low volume Price reaction levels Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept 34027 33326 32546 31780 31780 Weekly: Ave vol down bar close off low = Supply + some demand Daily: High vol down bar close toward low = Supply, + some demand coming in H4: Climatic + high vol down bar close at low, breaking down a previous support = bearish absorption Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable week ahead.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by paradox677
DOW JONES rejection finding Support soon.Exactly 2 weeks ago on our last Dow Jones (DJI) analysis we stated that the price had entered a possible rejection zone (red) and unless it closed a weekly (1W) candle above the 1D MA200, we would get a pull-back: Well as it turned out the index closed last week below both the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) and the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which are very close to each other, and got a considerable rejection this week. The price is now approaching the critical Support cluster that consists of the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and the 1D MA50 (yellow trend-line). The chances of getting a new bounce are high as not only are wee on a 1W MACD Bullish Cross since late July but also the 1D MA50 is about to cross above the 1D MA100, forming a Bullish Cross. Last time that happened was on after the June 15 2020 1W candle, which was the first recovery from the March 2020 COVID crash: As you see, the 1D MA50 and 1D MA100 held as Support levels and Dow was able to sustain a solid rise. Technically there is no reason not to expect a similar development but in order to technically claim that the index is back onto the long-term bullish trend we need to see a weekly candle closing above the 1D MA200. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
U
by TradingShot
2
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 AUG 22 Week US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 AUG 22 Week Last week supply returned for Scenario2 short opportunity. Possible scenarios: 1) Daily/Weekly analysis showed minor strength, let's see if demand is able to overcome supply for uptrend continuation. 2) Short on rejection of 34027 or market retraced on low volume. Price reaction levels Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept 34807 34027 33205 Weekly: Ave vol down bar close off low = minor strength Daily: Ave vol down bar close off low = minor strength H4: Very high volume up bar close off high followed by down bar = weakness Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable week ahead.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by paradox677
DOW JONES rejected on the Golden Ratio. What's next?The Dow Jones index (DJI) broke above its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) early this week but got rejected on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (from its January 05 All Time High (ATH)). Failing to hold the 1D MA200 as a Support, can result into a short-term pull-back to test the lower Fibonacci levels (0.5 and 0.382) as well as the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support. This short-term technical correction, shouldn't change the long-term trend-line, which after the huge 1W RSI bounce and the +15% rally since the June 17 low, has turned bullish. Even fundamentally, this market rally was supported by the first significant retrace on the Inflation Rate (black trend-line) and coincided exactly with the top on the US10Y (teal trend-line). So as you see, the rally had strong fundamental drivers, especially the US10Y, whose late sustainable rise since August 01, seems to worry the stock markets. A new peak there, can mark the new low on Dow. Also, notice that all prior 1D MA200 break-outs since February 01, failed to create a sustainable continuation and if we connect those tops with two trend-lines, we can see the solid technical Resistance that Dow Jones needs to overcome in order to be able to post a sustainable bullish trend long-term into the new Bull Cycle. P.S. Because the chart has the added elements of the US10Y and Inflation Rate plotted and are not constant, it may appear distorted based on your screen's/ browser dimensions. The original looks like this below, so if yours doesn't, adjust the vertical/ horizontal axis in order to make it look like this and better understand what is illustrated: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:DJI
by TradingShot
2
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 AUG 15 Week US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 AUG 15 Week Last week market reached previous supply zone. Long on retracement continues still preferred Possible scenarios: 1) Continue of upward momentum for long on retracement 2) Short on rejection at channel supply Price reaction levels Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept 34807 34027 33205 Weekly: Ave vol up bar = minor strength Daily: Ave vol up bar = minor strength H4: Ave vol up bar = minor strength. Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable week ahead.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by paradox677
DOW JONES entered the rejection zone. Long-term trend decider!The Dow Jones Index (DJI) has finally entered the Rejection Zone that we wrote about last week, consisting of the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level: With the RSI on the 1W time-frame at its highest level since January 17 2022 but more importantly the 1W MACD on the first Bullish Cross since this 8 month Bear Phase started, it is very likely that we've finally reached the point were the long-term trend shifts from bearish to bullish. However only a weekly closing above the 1D MA200 can confirm that. Until then, being so close to it offers a great Risk/ Reward trade using the tight SL approach just above it to limit the risk and target the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). A 1W close above the 1D MA200 should be enough to target the 35540 - 35875 Resistance Zone on the short-term. Important note that may go under the radar: the 1W MACD histogram posted in August its first green bars since May 2021, more than a year ago. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
U
by TradingShot
1
DOW JONES close to a rejection zone. Bullish if it breaks.The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fulfilled our buy signal given in late June after the price made a Lower Low on its long-term Channel Down: Right now the scene has slightly changed as the 1D RSI broke above its 8 month Resistance Zone and even though the price is now exactly on the Lower Highs (top) trend-line of the Channel Down, this may be the first sign that the trend is about to change from long-term bearish to bullish. There is still a chance to break above the Channel Down without breaking the bearish trend as the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) are above it. Those are the levels where Dow got rejected last time (April 21) and started a downtrend to a new Lower Low on the -0.236 Fibonacci extension. As a result a plan that offers excellent R/R opportunities is to sell just above the 0.618 Fib (see rejection zone) with a tight SL on the 1D MA200. Short-term target the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), where you can short if it breaks before hitting 0.618. Medium-term target 30450. If we get that candle close above the 1D MA200 then its minimum loss on the SL and switch to a break-out buy on the long-term. In that case the short-term targets can be the previous Lower Highs (33540 and 35875). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
U
by TradingShot
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 AUG 01 Week US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 AUG 01 Week Last week market reached previous supply zone. Long on retracement continues. And if price broken down of channel is is rejected, target could be 30406. Possible scenarios: 1) Continue of upward momentum for long on retracement 3) Rejection at previous supply zone + breakdown of channel for short Price reaction levels Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept 32563 31867 30406 29639 26212 Weekly: Ave vol up bar close at high = strength Daily: Ave vol up bar close off high = minor weakness H4: High vol narrow spread up bar followed by ave vol up bar close off high = weakness Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable week ahead.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by paradox677
DOW JONES has formed a 2018/2020 type bottom.The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJI) made the first bullish step as we outlined last week by breaking above its 1D MA50 (yellow trend-line) and is currently just below the 1D MA100 (red trend-line) and 1W MA100 (green trend-line). In the process it has made the exact same build up as the COVID bottom and subsequent recovery but let's see into this in more detail. First and foremost, it achieved this week the 1W MACD Bullish Cross. It is the first such formation below the 0.00 level since May 18 2020 and January 28 2019. Those were the Bullish Crosses that followed the COVID crash and U.S. - Chine trade war bottoms respectively and took the index into the early recovery steps. On top of that, it broke above a Lower Highs sequence on the 1W RSI that was holding since November 01 2021. Moving on to the MA periods, we can see than during the COVID crash, when the 1D MA50 crossed below the 1W MA100, the bottom was formed. That is also the case with the current correction as the same 1D MA50/ 1W MA100 Bearish Cross has so far formed a low on the June 13 1W candle. Back again to the COVID crash, when the 1D MA100 crossed below the 1W MA100, the index was consolidating preparing for a strong rise above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. On today's correction, we are just after this Bearish Cross, with the index already on two straight (very strong) 1W green candles. We can see that even in January 2019, the index had a similar consolidation within the 1D MA50 and 1D MA100 before a break above the latter pushed Dow Jones aggressively above the 0.786 Fib. In both sequences, all this happened after a 1W MACD Bullish Cross (as we have today), while the 1D MA50 was holding as a Support. Even though the pattern since the start of the year is a Channel Down within a Bearish Megaphone, with the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) located exactly on the Megaphone's Lower Highs (top) trend-line, we do have an excellent framework to work projections based on MA break-outs, modelled out of the similar 2018/ 2020 patterns. This time the 0.786 Fib is around 35250 and this is our target for the end of Q3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:DJILong
by TradingShot
2