Bitcoin: Expected Cool-Off or Cause for Concern?After rallying more than 25% off the June lows, Bitcoin is finally taking a breather with a much-anticipated pullback. But as expected, the fear meter is spiking, especially across CT.
Was this cool-off really a surprise? Not quite.
The signs were there: price stalling at upper extremes, responsive sellers stepping in at perceived overextensions, and inefficient zones left behind during sharp impulsive moves.
Of course, reading it in real-time is easier said than done. Emotions always complicate execution , but that’s a separate conversation.
In this post, let’s break down the current structure in detail —using volume profile, TPO charts, and market structure analysis, to give you a clearer picture of what’s unfolding. We’ll also explore a few scenarios worth watching as the next move shapes up.
Let’s dive in!
Table of Contents
➺ Volume Profile
➺ TPO
➺ Key Technical Insights
➺ Market Structure
➺ Trade Scenarios and What to Watch
➺ TLDR
⦿ Volume Profile
Currently, we’re seeing two key zones of balance : one broad range that held for over 60 days and a tighter 21-day structure that formed at higher levels. These are classic areas of value where buyers and sellers found temporary agreement, establishing balance.
The sharp move from ~111,000 to ~122,000 was largely impulsive , with little volume built along the way, suggesting initiative buying in early July. As is often the case with such thin zones, they tend to get revisited once momentum fades. That’s exactly what we’re seeing now.
As price dips into this low-volume pocket, the key question is:
Will the market accept this zone and begin building value here, or will it reject and bounce back toward higher ground?
Looking at the Volume Range Visible Profile (VRVP) since June 7th, the nearby Value Area High (VAH) sits around ~111,000 . If current support doesn’t hold, this becomes the next major volume magnet. That said, there’s also a low-volume node (LVN) just above 111,000 , which could act as a demand pocket and trigger a responsive bounce.
In simple terms:
– Acceptance into the LVN could lead to new range formation at lower levels
– A sharp bounce off ~110,000 might reestablish the prior higher balance, or create a fresh range between the two existing areas
The next few sessions will reveal whether the market is hunting for new value or just shaking out weak hands.
⦿ TPO
Zooming into the 4H TPO chart, we can clearly see the evolving monthly profiles from May through August. And as is often the case, the market found resistance right where you’d expect: at the extremes.
The upper end of July’s profile became a battleground. Buyers attempted multiple pushes above that upper balance, but each effort was consistently faded by responsive sellers , signaling growing exhaustion at the top.
Eventually, that pressure gave way to an impulsive breakdown, driven by initiative selling. Notably, price didn’t rotate gently back into the previous range, but it sliced straight into a thin zone of prior low participation.
Now, the market is sitting at the low-volume region , and the next key battle is shaping up. Additionally, The 108,000 to 110,000 area carries weight as it served as the Value Area High (VAH) for both the May and June profiles. If buyers are going to respond, this is one of the more likely places for them to step in.
⦿ Key Technical Insights
▸ Failed Acceptance Above 21-Day Balance
Repeated attempts to hold above the short-term balance were rejected, signaling buyer fatigue and a lack of conviction at higher levels.
▸ Initiative Sellers Took Control
Once demand dried up, sellers stepped in aggressively. The thin participation during the recent rally left little structural support, allowing price to drop quickly.
▸ No Value Built Below Yet
The zone currently being tested saw minimal trading earlier. If bulls want to reclaim control, they’ll need to build value here and establish a new base.
▸ Prior Balance High as Potential Support
Price is now retesting the top of the 60+ day balance area from above, a classic setup where previous resistance can become support. This area also aligns with a known demand shelf.
▸ Deviation Below the 200 MA Cloud
Price has slipped below the 200 MA cloud and is nearing a key flip zone. A test of the 110,000 level next week wouldn’t be surprising. That area could serve as a strong support zone where a new accumulation phase begins.
⦿ Market Structure
The broader market structure points to a transition in progress. After spending over two months in balance , price broke out to the upside —only to form another short-lived range at higher levels. That, too, gave way to a swift breakdown.
This kind of “failed acceptance at higher prices” is often an early signal that the market may revisit prior zones of interest, typically areas where value was last built.
All eyes now shift to the 110,000–111,000 zone , the high of the previous 60-day balance.
We’re in a classic test-retest phase, where the market is probing for conviction . These moments often set the stage for the next significant move, either continued distribution lower, or the beginning of a re-accumulation phase.
⦿ Scenarios & What to Watch
As Bitcoin pulls back into key structural zones, several scenarios are in play. Here's what to monitor in the coming sessions:
Scenario 1: Re-Acceptance into 21-Day Balance
▸ If price reclaims and holds above ~116K, we could see a rotation back toward the upper end of the short-term balance near ~120K.
▸ This would suggest the recent breakdown was a failed auction or bear trap, not the start of a broader trend reversal.
▸ Watch for initiative buying above the demand shelf with follow-through volume.
Scenario 2: Choppy Mid-Balance Activity
▸ Price remains range-bound between ~110K and ~116K, forming a new short-term balance zone.
▸ Expect slower movement and back-and-forth behavior as the market decides its next direction.
▸ Patience is key here. Watch volume and initiative behavior to gauge strength.
Scenario 3: Rejection and Continuation Lower
▸ If price fails to hold above ~110K, there’s potential for a move down to the POC near ~104K, or even deeper toward ~100K (Value Area Low).
▸ These are low-volume zones, which rarely offer strong support unless new value is built.
▸ This would signal a continuation of the current imbalance and potentially mark a structural trend shift.
I’m primarily focused on Scenario 1 and 2 , as we appear to be in a late bull phase. A deeper pullback toward 100K increases the risk of a broader trend change, making it less attractive from a risk/reward standpoint.
⦿ TLDR
▸ Buyers failed to hold the top of the 21-day balance. Clear signs of exhaustion.
▸ Price dropped into a prior low-volume zone, which now acts as potential demand.
▸ This area has never been accepted before - either buyers step in, or we go lower.
▸ Reclaiming ~116K could fuel a move back toward 120K+.
▸ Failure to hold ~110K opens the door to 104K, maybe even 100K.
What happens next week will likely set the tone for the next major move. Watch how the market responds to acceptance vs rejection zones, and let price action confirm your bias before you act.
If you found this analysis helpful, share it with someone who trades Bitcoin. 🥰
What’s your read on the current structure? Let me know in the comments! 📉
⚠️ Disclaimer
As always, this post is purely for educational purposes. I am not a financial advisor, and nothing here should be taken as financial advice. Always consult your financial advisor before making any investment or trading decisions. Or at the very least, consult your cat. 🐱
Crypto market
BTCUSDT: Elliot Wave AnalysisAs you can see in the chart, the fourth wave has ended and there is a possibility of an increase in the next stage to the level between 128,000 and 131,000, followed by a correction for a larger fourth wave and finally the last leg of the increase to the fifth wave, which has the possibility of reaching 139,000 to 140,000.
Quick Bitcoin Analysis – 30-Minute TimeframeQuick Hey friends 👋
Bitcoin was recently moving inside a weak upward channel on the 30-minute chart. But now, it has broken below the channel with a strong bearish candle. This suggests we’re entering a short-term correction.
🔹 However, don’t forget — the overall trend is still bullish.
This drop looks more like a healthy pullback, not the start of a full downtrend.
🎯 Possible Targets for This Correction:
✅ Target 1: Around $114,500
(This comes from measuring the width of the broken channel.)
✅ Target 2: Strong support near $113,500
(This level has shown solid buyer interest in the past.)
📊 The RSI is also approaching the oversold zone, which means we might see a small bounce or slowdown in the drop soon.
📌 In short:
This is likely just a dip in a bigger uptrend. Be patient, watch key support zones, and don’t rush into trades.
Always stick to proper risk management! 💼
Bitcoin Analysis – 30-Minute Timeframe
BTCUSD: Long Signal with Entry/SL/TP
BTCUSD
- Classic bullish formation
- Our team expects growth
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Buy BTCUSD
Entry Level - 11326
Sl - 11231
Tp - 11516
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
XRP VS AI ?Hi,
This is fun, come on XRP $4.95
Average Speed (Points/Day) 0.053
Retracement Amount (Points) 0.80
Retracement % 51.28%
Probability of Retracement % 5-10%
Projected Next Move Size (Points) 2.09
Next Projected High Price 4.95
Estimated Duration to Next Target 39.4 days
Projected End Date 2025-09-10
All the best
Not a guru
ETH/USD – Short from ResistanceHi traders ! , I opened a short position on ETH/USD as price is hitting a strong resistance zone.
Entry: 3850
SL: 4084.46
TP: 3638.94
📌 Why I took this trade:
Price is testing a strong resistance zone around 3860, RSI is overbought, and we could see a pullback toward the support area around 3640.
Nice risk/reward setup, keeping it simple.
This is just my analysis, not financial advice.
What’s your view — drop or breakout?
Ethereum (ETH/USD) Analysis - Aug 01, 2025ETH is showing a strong uptrend on the 1D chart, recently hitting $3,639.37 after a -1.59% dip. A key support zone around $3,500 is in sight, which I’m eyeing as a potential buy opportunity. The chart suggests a solid base here, with historical price action holding firm.
Watch for a bounce or consolidation around $3,500-$3,600 before the next leg up.
Target: $4,000+ if momentum holds.
Risk: A break below $3,300 could invalidate this setup.
MEMEUSDT 8H#MEME has formed a Cup and Handle pattern on the 8H timeframe. It has bounced nicely off the SMA100, and volume is showing signs of strong accumulation.
📌 Consider entering this coin only after a solid breakout above the resistance zone.
If the breakout occurs, the potential targets are:
🎯 $0.002369
🎯 $0.002675
🎯 $0.003064
⚠️ As always, use a tight stop-loss and apply proper risk management.
#SUI/USDT Update – Bounce Setup from Demand Zone?#SUI
The price is moving within a descending channel on the 1-hour frame and is expected to break and continue upward.
We have a trend to stabilize above the 100 moving average once again.
We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator that supports the upward break.
We have a support area at the lower boundary of the channel at 3.27, acting as strong support from which the price can rebound.
We have a major support area in green that pushed the price higher at 3.20.
Entry price: 3.38
First target: 3.58
Second target: 3.65
Third target: 3.80
To manage risk, don't forget stop loss and capital management.
When you reach the first target, save some profits and then change the stop order to an entry order.
For inquiries, please comment.
Thank you.
How to Capture Reversals/Breakouts with MAD IndicatorBTC/USDT 15M – Market Anomaly Detector (MAD) Captures Reversals & Breakouts
⸻
Description:
On this BTC/USDT 15-minute chart, the Market Anomaly Detector (MAD) is actively highlighting high-probability market turning points and anomaly zones.
Key Observations from the Chart:
1. Green & Red Zones = Expected Price Range
• Green Line (Upper Band): Expected top of the range.
• Red Line (Lower Band): Expected bottom of the range.
• Price usually travels green → red → green, forming a natural oscillation.
2. Buy/Sell Signals = Breakout + Reversal Detection
• Buy Signal: Triggered when price closes above the green line or recovers from below the red line.
• Sell Signal: Triggered when price closes below the red line or rejects from the green line.
• This reverse psychology logic helps catch false breakouts and stop-loss hunts.
3. Performance on This Chart:
• Signals aligned with key reversals during the sideways-to-downtrend transition.
• The strong downtrend in the second half of the chart shows multiple accurate sell signals, confirming trend continuation.
• Sideways movements had minimal false signals due to cooldown + volume filter.
4. Unique Advantage (USP):
• Statistical approach using Z-Score & Standard Deviation.
• Multi-filter confirmation with RSI, volume, and higher timeframe trend.
• Visually clear anomaly zones:
• Green background = Bullish anomaly
• Red background = Bearish anomaly
• Gray background = Neutral range
Takeaway:
MAD helps traders anticipate anomalies rather than react late, offering high-probability trade entries and reversals in trending and volatile conditions.
SOL - Support Broke, Is This Just a Retest Before The Pump?Solana just lost a key structural level on the 4H chart — the former range high (~163–166), which had acted as resistance throughout June and flipped to support in mid-July. Price is now sitting just below this zone, forming a weak retest without any real bullish momentum.
This setup often leads to trap scenarios: either a fast reclaim (bullish deviation) or a clean continuation to the next demand. So far, the price is holding below the EMAs and failing to reclaim lost ground — not a bullish look.
📌 Confluence for Further Downside:
Break and close below prior support
EMA 50/100 acting as dynamic resistance
No bullish divergence present (if RSI confirms)
Weak volume on current bounce attempt
If sellers stay in control, eyes are on the next demand zone around 144–146, which supported the last major breakout. Conversely, a clean reclaim above 166 and back inside the range would flip bias neutral-to-bullish.
Bias: Bearish unless 166 is reclaimed
Invalidation: Break above 177–180 (EMA cluster)
Next Key Support: 144–146
Potential Setup: Short on failed retest / Long on demand reaction
Do you see this as a breakdown or a trap? Let me know 👇
Bitcoin’s Game Has Changed: Fresh Support Zone, Targets Sky-HighHey Dear Friends,
Until recently, Bitcoin had been stuck in a range between 112,331 and 105,344 for quite some time. But that range has now been clearly broken. So, what does this mean? This zone, which used to act as resistance, is now expected to flip and act as support.
According to my weekly trading model, the long-term target levels I’m tracking for Bitcoin are: 127,818 – 137,000 – 146,000.
Since this is a weekly setup, it might take a while for these targets to play out. Even if we see pullbacks to the 112K, 105K, or even 100K levels, I expect to see strong buying pressure from that zone.
I’ll keep sharing regular updates as this setup develops.
To everyone who’s been supporting and appreciating my work—thank you, truly. Your encouragement means the world to me and keeps me motivated to keep showing up. Much love to all of you—I’m grateful we’re in this journey together.
XRP/USD Breakout Watch: $3.22 Target in SightA key blue trendline on the XRP/USD chart that reflects market sentiment. If price breaks above it with strong volume, we could see a rally toward $3.22.
Support zone: $0.55–$0.60
Bullish case: Improved sentiment, easing tariffs, and regulatory cooling
Strategy: Wait for breakout confirmation before entering
Share your thoughts — are you preparing for a breakout?