Bitcoin: Expected Cool-Off or Cause for Concern?After rallying more than 25% off the June lows, Bitcoin is finally taking a breather with a much-anticipated pullback. But as expected, the fear meter is spiking, especially across CT.
Was this cool-off really a surprise? Not quite.
The signs were there: price stalling at upper extremes, responsive sellers stepping in at perceived overextensions, and inefficient zones left behind during sharp impulsive moves.
Of course, reading it in real-time is easier said than done. Emotions always complicate execution , but that’s a separate conversation.
In this post, let’s break down the current structure in detail —using volume profile, TPO charts, and market structure analysis, to give you a clearer picture of what’s unfolding. We’ll also explore a few scenarios worth watching as the next move shapes up.
Let’s dive in!
Table of Contents
➺ Volume Profile
➺ TPO
➺ Key Technical Insights
➺ Market Structure
➺ Trade Scenarios and What to Watch
➺ TLDR
⦿ Volume Profile
Currently, we’re seeing two key zones of balance : one broad range that held for over 60 days and a tighter 21-day structure that formed at higher levels. These are classic areas of value where buyers and sellers found temporary agreement, establishing balance.
The sharp move from ~111,000 to ~122,000 was largely impulsive , with little volume built along the way, suggesting initiative buying in early July. As is often the case with such thin zones, they tend to get revisited once momentum fades. That’s exactly what we’re seeing now.
As price dips into this low-volume pocket, the key question is:
Will the market accept this zone and begin building value here, or will it reject and bounce back toward higher ground?
Looking at the Volume Range Visible Profile (VRVP) since June 7th, the nearby Value Area High (VAH) sits around ~111,000 . If current support doesn’t hold, this becomes the next major volume magnet. That said, there’s also a low-volume node (LVN) just above 111,000 , which could act as a demand pocket and trigger a responsive bounce.
In simple terms:
– Acceptance into the LVN could lead to new range formation at lower levels
– A sharp bounce off ~110,000 might reestablish the prior higher balance, or create a fresh range between the two existing areas
The next few sessions will reveal whether the market is hunting for new value or just shaking out weak hands.
⦿ TPO
Zooming into the 4H TPO chart, we can clearly see the evolving monthly profiles from May through August. And as is often the case, the market found resistance right where you’d expect: at the extremes.
The upper end of July’s profile became a battleground. Buyers attempted multiple pushes above that upper balance, but each effort was consistently faded by responsive sellers , signaling growing exhaustion at the top.
Eventually, that pressure gave way to an impulsive breakdown, driven by initiative selling. Notably, price didn’t rotate gently back into the previous range, but it sliced straight into a thin zone of prior low participation.
Now, the market is sitting at the low-volume region , and the next key battle is shaping up. Additionally, The 108,000 to 110,000 area carries weight as it served as the Value Area High (VAH) for both the May and June profiles. If buyers are going to respond, this is one of the more likely places for them to step in.
⦿ Key Technical Insights
▸ Failed Acceptance Above 21-Day Balance
Repeated attempts to hold above the short-term balance were rejected, signaling buyer fatigue and a lack of conviction at higher levels.
▸ Initiative Sellers Took Control
Once demand dried up, sellers stepped in aggressively. The thin participation during the recent rally left little structural support, allowing price to drop quickly.
▸ No Value Built Below Yet
The zone currently being tested saw minimal trading earlier. If bulls want to reclaim control, they’ll need to build value here and establish a new base.
▸ Prior Balance High as Potential Support
Price is now retesting the top of the 60+ day balance area from above, a classic setup where previous resistance can become support. This area also aligns with a known demand shelf.
▸ Deviation Below the 200 MA Cloud
Price has slipped below the 200 MA cloud and is nearing a key flip zone. A test of the 110,000 level next week wouldn’t be surprising. That area could serve as a strong support zone where a new accumulation phase begins.
⦿ Market Structure
The broader market structure points to a transition in progress. After spending over two months in balance , price broke out to the upside —only to form another short-lived range at higher levels. That, too, gave way to a swift breakdown.
This kind of “failed acceptance at higher prices” is often an early signal that the market may revisit prior zones of interest, typically areas where value was last built.
All eyes now shift to the 110,000–111,000 zone , the high of the previous 60-day balance.
We’re in a classic test-retest phase, where the market is probing for conviction . These moments often set the stage for the next significant move, either continued distribution lower, or the beginning of a re-accumulation phase.
⦿ Scenarios & What to Watch
As Bitcoin pulls back into key structural zones, several scenarios are in play. Here's what to monitor in the coming sessions:
Scenario 1: Re-Acceptance into 21-Day Balance
▸ If price reclaims and holds above ~116K, we could see a rotation back toward the upper end of the short-term balance near ~120K.
▸ This would suggest the recent breakdown was a failed auction or bear trap, not the start of a broader trend reversal.
▸ Watch for initiative buying above the demand shelf with follow-through volume.
Scenario 2: Choppy Mid-Balance Activity
▸ Price remains range-bound between ~110K and ~116K, forming a new short-term balance zone.
▸ Expect slower movement and back-and-forth behavior as the market decides its next direction.
▸ Patience is key here. Watch volume and initiative behavior to gauge strength.
Scenario 3: Rejection and Continuation Lower
▸ If price fails to hold above ~110K, there’s potential for a move down to the POC near ~104K, or even deeper toward ~100K (Value Area Low).
▸ These are low-volume zones, which rarely offer strong support unless new value is built.
▸ This would signal a continuation of the current imbalance and potentially mark a structural trend shift.
I’m primarily focused on Scenario 1 and 2 , as we appear to be in a late bull phase. A deeper pullback toward 100K increases the risk of a broader trend change, making it less attractive from a risk/reward standpoint.
⦿ TLDR
▸ Buyers failed to hold the top of the 21-day balance. Clear signs of exhaustion.
▸ Price dropped into a prior low-volume zone, which now acts as potential demand.
▸ This area has never been accepted before - either buyers step in, or we go lower.
▸ Reclaiming ~116K could fuel a move back toward 120K+.
▸ Failure to hold ~110K opens the door to 104K, maybe even 100K.
What happens next week will likely set the tone for the next major move. Watch how the market responds to acceptance vs rejection zones, and let price action confirm your bias before you act.
If you found this analysis helpful, share it with someone who trades Bitcoin. 🥰
What’s your read on the current structure? Let me know in the comments! 📉
⚠️ Disclaimer
As always, this post is purely for educational purposes. I am not a financial advisor, and nothing here should be taken as financial advice. Always consult your financial advisor before making any investment or trading decisions. Or at the very least, consult your cat. 🐱
