Forex market
GBPAUD Will Go Up! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for GBPAUD.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is on a crucial zone of demand 2.074.
The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 2.083 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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USD/JPY TESTS RESISTANCE AMID BOJ CAUTION, FED OUTLOOKIn the wake of the escalating geopolitical tension in the Middle East, markets have been reacting sharply. Focusing on USDJPY pair, as the conflict shows signs of intensifying, investors turned to traditional safe-haven assets notably the Japanese yen amid fears of a broader regional spillover.
Beyond geopolitical tension in the Middle East, both economies are set to announce their interest rate decisions this week alongside economic outlook. At the end of Bank of Japan two days policy meeting earlier today, the Yen became a little stronger after the Bank of Japan said that it would keep interest rates at 0.5% and that it would slow down the process of reducing its balance sheet in 2025. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda maintained a cautious tone, noting global risks and keeping the door open for further policy tightening if needed.
On the other hand, the U.S., the retail sale would be on the wire by 4:30 PM GMT+4 (Dubai time). This key economic indicator will offer details about consumer spending trends, a major driver of the U.S. economy. Markets will closely watch the data for signs of economic strength or weakness, as it could influence expectations around future Federal Reserve policy decisions.
While the most important on the calendar, is that Fed committee is due to convene today for a two-day policy meeting, which would end on Wednesday the 18th.Meanwhile, Markets has priced in 99.9% for the rate unchanged at 4.25-4.50%.
TECHNICAL VIEW OF USDJPY; AND PRICE LEVELS TO WATCH OUT
Away from the fundamental drivers, the USD/JPY pair initially dropped on Friday the 13th and was resisted around 142.79 as risk aversion drove demand for the yen. However, the move was tempered by ongoing strength in the U.S. dollar, underpinned by resilient U.S. economic data and expectations the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer, hence the change of character (CHOCH) at 143.89, hence the reversal of trend from downtrend to uptrend on the one-hour time frame, whereby price is seen trading inside the channel with the green trendline acting as support and the red, resistance. The pair was recently supported at 144.40 and hovers around 145.
In view of the economic releases, a break above 145.00 would likely usher in 145.40 and 145.80, while a break below 144.40 would mean that the bears are momentarily in control and price would potentially tank further towards 144.00 and 143.50 according to analyst, meanwhile break out of these levels are not ruled out.
GBPAUD: Bounce-and-Fill into 2.0830
Price just tagged 2.0731 the former ceiling that’s now acting as intraday support, and printed a clean rejection wick. If that level holds, I’m looking for bulls to squeeze us back toward the 2.0810-2.0830 supply zone . From there, I’ll watch for fresh sell signals. Bias flips only if 2.0731 breaks convincingly.
The Day Ahead Tuesday, June 17 – Market Summary (Key Data & Events)
U.S. Focus:
Retail Sales (May) – Key consumer demand gauge; strong data may lift USD and yields.
Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization (May) – Insight into manufacturing health; impacts USD, rates.
Import/Export Price Index (May) – Inflation clues; affects Fed expectations.
NAHB Housing Index (June) – Early read on housing sentiment.
NY Fed Services Index, Business Inventories (April) – Lower-tier data.
5-Year TIPS Auction – Watch for inflation expectations via demand.
Global Data:
Germany & Eurozone ZEW Surveys (June) – Investor sentiment; EUR-sensitive.
Canada International Securities Transactions (April) – Tracks foreign capital flows; affects CAD.
Central Banks:
BoJ Decision – High impact for JPY, JGBs, and Nikkei; watch policy tone.
ECB Speakers (Villeroy, Centeno) – May guide rate expectations and EUR.
Trading Relevance:
FX: USD, JPY, EUR in focus.
Equities: Retail data, BoJ stance may drive risk appetite.
Rates: Data-heavy day for yields; TIPS auction key for inflation outlook.
Commodities: Industrial activity and prices affect demand/inflation views.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Here’s detailed breakdown for GBPUSD (1H chart)🏦 GBPUSD Analysis – June 17, 2025 | 1H Chart
🔻 Market Structure Overview
Currently ranging between 1.3524 support and 1.3607 resistance.
Price is inside a descending triangle – bearish structure.
Clean rejections from descending trendline; each retest brings in lower highs.
🔍 Key Zones
🔴 Resistance (1.3580–1.3610)
Multiple rejections + prior breaker block.
Last rally into this zone (highlighted in blue) was immediately sold off → liquidity grab.
Trendline confluence above it adds extra weight.
🟢 Support (1.3524–1.3544)
Price has bounced here 3 times → forming short-term demand.
However, each bounce is losing momentum – classic absorption sign.
🧠 Institutional Clues
Volume Spikes on down moves = sellers active at highs.
Up candles = low volume, weak buyer intent.
That wick fake-out at 1.3580 → clear stop hunt.
📉 Sell-Side Setup (Bias: Bearish)
Entry Concepts:
Sell on retest of broken structure near 1.3578–1.3590.
OR Breakdown play below 1.3524, wait for candle close & retest.
🎯 Targets:
TP1: 1.3500 psychological + low volume node
TP2: 1.3465 (marked previous low)
TP3: 1.3420–1.3400 (daily imbalance fill area)
🛑 Invalidation:
Break & hold above 1.3610, invalidates the triangle and flips to bullish breakout.
💡 Trade Idea Example:
Sell Limit @ 1.3580
SL: 1.3615
TP1: 1.3500
TP2: 1.3465
RR: ~1:3+
🔮 Final Thoughts:
GBPUSD is coiling inside a tightening structure; a breakdown is more likely due to bearish pressure, trendline resistance, and repeated absorption of buyers.
Watch DXY strength too — any bullish push on USD can trigger a clean flush.
USDCHF: Up for a ride?What we just saw on USDCHF is a classic move that catches many traders off guard:
Price swept the Previous Day’s Low (PDL)
That’s where most retail traders get stopped out.
It’s also where smart money often steps in.
Break of Structure (BOS) followed immediately
A clean shift in direction.
Momentum flipped bullish.
Fair Value Gap (FVG) below
That’s likely where price will return to rebalance.
If price respects that zone, the next destination?
The liquidity resting above.
This is one of those setups that reminds me:
It’s not about catching every move. It’s about understanding why the move happened.
Let’s see how it plays out.
GBPUSD consolidates resistance zone and declinesPlan GBPUSD day: 16 June 2025
Related Information: !!!
The Pound Sterling (GBP) ticks up to near 1.3590 against the US Dollar (USD) so far on Monday, remaining inside Friday’s trading range. The GBP/USD pair is expected to keep trading within a tight range as investors have sidelined ahead of monetary policy announcements by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE), due on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.
At the start of the week, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, edges down to near 98.00.
Investors will closely monitor the interest rate guidance from both central banks, while they are expected to leave those unchanged at their current levels
personal opinion:!!!
At the beginning of the week, there was not much important news. GBPUSD price was sideways and reacted to resistance and support zones.
Important price zone to consider :
SELL point: zone 1.35950
Sustainable trading to beat the market
USDCAD Bearish Bias: Beware Liquidity Traps & Reversal Risks.I'm currently keeping a close eye on USDCAD, which has been in a strong bearish trend. 📉
In this video, I explain how the market is unfolding across both the higher and lower timeframes, and why it’s critical to watch them in conjunction. On the lower timeframes, we often see a clean sequence of lower highs and lower lows, as the algos set up a seemingly a smooth trend. But traders should be cautious ⚠️
Why? Because on the higher timeframes, the market can easily pull back, triggering a liquidity hunt. This is often when the algorithm targets stop orders above recent highs, before resuming the trend 🧠💥
While my bias remains bearish, I'm also aware of the risk that the market could shift gears unexpectedly to run stops and shake out weak hands. This concept is fully broken down in the video — with examples of how to spot these traps and prepare accordingly 🎯
fx pairs signals📈 2H Forex Reversion Setup: USDJPY & EURUSD Cross Confluence
This chart highlights a great example of inverse correlation confirmation between major FX pairs using the ELFIEDT X-REVERSION indicator.
✅ USDJPY gave a clean BUY signal at the low of the move, shortly before a major reversal kicked off.
✅ At the same time, EURUSD flashed multiple SELL signals at its high, confirming a strong rejection.
📍 This is how we look for directional confluence across pairs:
EURUSD moves up while USDJPY drops → both reach reversion zones
RSI reverses on both, with visual confirmation from signal labels
Strong shift in USD strength confirmed across charts
🧠 Key Insight: When a USD-based pair like USDJPY prints a buy while a pair like EURUSD prints a sell, it’s often a high-quality reversal zone. The more aggressive the move before, the better the reaction after.
💡 Use this kind of cross-checking to increase confidence and build multi-symbol precision.