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Retail is 86% Long on GBPCHF… But Smart Money Is Setting a Trap📊 1. RETAIL SENTIMENT Long Positions: 86% – Average Entry: 1.1196 Short Positions: 14% – Average Entry: 1.0999 Current Price: 1.1010 Analysis: Retail positioning is heavily skewed towards longs, with the average long entry significantly above the current market price. This creates vulnerability to downside pressure through stop-loss hunting or a bearish squeeze. Such extreme retail bias often acts as a contrarian signal: smart money may continue pushing the price lower to flush out retail traders before any meaningful reversal occurs. 🧾 2. COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS – COT REPORT (June 10, 2025) 🔹 British Pound (GBP) Non-Commercials (Speculators): Net Long increasing by +7.4K → now at +51.6K Commercials (Hedgers): Net Short decreasing by -13.9K → now at -60.5K Total Open Interest: Decreased by -19K Interpretation: Speculators are maintaining strong long exposure on GBP, while commercials are covering some shorts—potentially signaling a short-term pause in bullish momentum. However, the drop in overall open interest suggests possible consolidation or short-term uncertainty. 🔹 Swiss Franc (CHF) Non-Commercials: Net Shorts reduced by -2.7K Commercials: Net Longs increased by +2.5K Total Open Interest: Increased by +5.6K Interpretation: The CHF is gaining strength. Commercial participants are increasing their long exposure while speculators reduce their shorts—this positive divergence supports a bullish outlook on CHF, especially against retail-heavy long pairs like GBP. 📈 3. CHF SEASONALITY – JUNE Average CHF Performance in June: 20-Year Avg: +0.0099 15-Year Avg: +0.0138 10-Year Avg: +0.0099 5-Year Avg: +0.0039 Analysis: Historically, June is a seasonally strong month for the Swiss Franc. This seasonal bias aligns with current macro conditions, reinforcing the bullish case for CHF. 📊 4. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (Daily Chart) Pattern: Descending channel with a recent false breakdown and re-entry Key Support Zone: 1.0980–1.1000 → tested and defended with a bullish wick Target Resistance: 1.1170–1.1200 → prior retail cluster, supply zone, and average long entry Scenario: A confirmed breakout of the channel could trigger a short squeeze toward 1.1170–1.1200 📌 STRATEGIC OUTLOOK The current GBP/CHF setup is technically and sentimentally delicate. The price sits on a major daily demand zone, while sentiment and macro flows suggest downside pressure remains in play—but also allow room for a potential contrarian rally (short squeeze). 👉 Action Plan: Wait for intraday/daily confirmation: Go long above 1.1045 (breakout confirmation) → target 1.1170 Go short below 1.0980 (bearish continuation) → target 1.0860
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
4
EUR/USD – Bullish Continuation Setup Ahead of Retest Zone As of today, I’m maintaining a bullish stance on EUR/USD going into mid-2025. Back on May 22, I marked the support zone around 1.10649, and since then price action has respected that zone beautifully, forming higher lows and gaining steady upside momentum. Looking at current structure across the 11H, 20H, and 16D timeframes, I do not see any strong bearish momentum. If anything, the most recent pullback seems like a natural setup for continuation rather than reversal. 🟡 Key zones to watch: Support: 1.13636 (20HR Support) Demand reaction zone: 1.14443 – 1.15407 Resistance/Next target zone: 1.15729 – 1.16311 (Previous swing high) Upper target potential: 1.16921 We’ve already cleared the minor consolidation and are now holding above the support band. If we get a proper retest of the 1.14948 zone and hold, I expect continuation toward 1.16311, and potentially a breakout above 1.16921 if momentum follows through. ✅ Momentum Outlook: Bullish 📍 Bias: Long 🕰️ Trend: Mid-Term Swing (Higher Time Frame Confluence) If no macro news disrupts momentum, the technicals point toward a healthy continuation. Let's see if the retest confirms the move. 📊
Long
by MoNi_MoN
2
Potential long setup EURUSDTook almost two months for us to take April high well done for those who caught the move. This analysis will probably take a lot less time to play out. Friday closed with an inside bar which means you would have to go onto lower timeframes to see which direction makes more sense to go. I have not been given any reason fundamentally or technically to be bearish on the pair just yet so I will be targeting the high. The daily FVG is a key area to look at and if it fails and we start making bearish FVGs that could be a sign that we will start getting a weekly or even a monthly pullback. That's all I can say for now stay safe and flow with the markets.
Long
by Keyserfx
1
#EURJPY: Major Swing Sell +1100 Pips, One Not To Miss! The Japanese Yen (JPY) is most likely to continue its bullish trend, as the Dollar Index (DXY) is expected to decline due to the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran. Historically, JPY and CHF, alongside gold and silver, have been favoured by global investors and remain bullish. Strong fundamentals and technical support further support our analysis. The 167-169 price region remains a critical point for sellers, where we anticipate significant selling volume. There are two entry points to consider: one near the current price and another slightly further away. Please monitor volume and use smaller time frames for entries. Our Swing Target is at 154, but you can also target smaller zones once the trade is activated. For instance, set take-profit levels at 164, 160, and finally, at 154. To encourage and support us, you can like the idea, comment on it, or share it. Team Setupsfx_ ❤️❤️🚀🚀
Short
by Setupsfx_
24
USD/JPY Approaching Key Buy Zone USD/JPY is trading above a potential demand zone between 143.827 and 143.449, following a recent bounce. This zone aligns with prior structure support and could act as a re-entry level for bullish momentum. If price retests and holds this area, a move toward the 144.490 resistance could unfold. A clean break above that level might open the door toward 145.138. However, a confirmed break below 143.449 would invalidate the bullish idea and signal a potential shift in short-term sentiment.
Long
by piporia
Falling towards major support level?NZD/USD is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection and also slightly above the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 0.5987 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level that is slightly above the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and the also lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Stop loss: 0.5951 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Take profit: 0.6037 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
Potential bearish drop?AUD/USD has reacted off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could drop from this level to our take profit. Entry: 0.6498 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Stop loss: 0.6519 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Take profit: 0.6468 Why we like it: There is a pullback support that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
GBPJPY. |||. HITTING selling zone soonthe zone followed by a sharp rejection. --- 🧠 Smart Money Insight: Possible SMC-style reaction anticipated: Liquidity inducement above highs Sharp rejection from seller zone BOS (Break of Structure) for confirmation Right-side inset illustration highlights expected distribution before drop. --- 🔎 --- 🧩 Trading Plan: Wait for price action confirmation in the supply zone. Look for M15/H1 shift in structure and strong bearish engulfing patterns. Risk management is key: Place stop-loss above zone highs.
Short
by Greenfireforex
1
Bullish bounce off 61.8% Fibonacci support?USD/JPY is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 143.43 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 142.88 Why we like it There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Take profit: 144.38 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
1
USDJPY Technical Brief: Structure Points Lower 💴 USDJPY: Structure suggests further downside The upward movement from April 22 to May 12 appears to be corrective — I label it as a double zigzag.
The segment from May 12 to May 27, on the other hand, is highly likely to be an impulse. After that, the price moved into a range, the boundaries of which are gradually narrowing. This gives reason to assume the formation of a contracting triangle (cT). If this scenario plays out, we may see:
 🔸 a break of the 142.108 low
 🔸 a drop toward the 139.883 zone
 🔸 an overall potential decline within the 140.8–138.0 range 📎 Link to my long-term FX:USDJPY OANDA:USDJPY FOREXCOM:USDJPY scenario:
Short
by shakatrade1_618
2
Forex Weekly Portfolio Selection – Top Trade SetupsWeekly Forex Portfolio Selection – H1 Chart Analysis Using the Weekly & Daily Currency Strength Index, we’ve identified the strongest and weakest currencies to build a focused trading portfolio for the week. 📊 Currency Strength Ranking (1 = Weakest, 8 = Strongest): EUR: 8 CHF: 7 CAD: 6 GBP: 5 AUD: 4 NZD: 3 USD: 2 JPY: 1 ➡️ The Euro (EUR) is currently the strongest, while the Japanese Yen (JPY) is the weakest. 🔍 Analysed Pairs (H1 Timeframe): EURJPY EURUSD CADJPY GBPUSD This selection focuses on high-probability setups aligned with trend and strength analysis.
by Charts247TradingAcademy
#CADJPY:1700+ PIPS Swing Concept On The Way,Three Profit TargetsJPY initiated a bearish trend and anticipates a rapid reversal in all JPY pairs, such as CADJPY. We expect a significant swing move, potentially reaching 2000+ pips in the long term. Additionally, we have set three targets based on our analysis, which can aid in identifying potential trade opportunities. Good luck and trade safely. Good luck and trade safely. Thanks for your support! 😊 If you want to help us out, here are a few things you can do: - Like our ideas - Comment on our ideas - Share our ideas Team Setupsfx_ ❤️🚀
Long
by Setupsfx_
20
EURJPY – Daily Chart selling zone alert |||||Price is approaching a major higher-timeframe supply zone near 168.000 – 172.000, an area historically respected by institutional sellers. This zone aligns with a previous price rejection and a trendline resistance visible on a multi-year chart. Expecting a possible liquidity grab into the zone followed by a sharp rejection. --- 🧠 Smart Money Insight: Possible SMC-style reaction anticipated: Liquidity inducement above highs Sharp rejection from seller zone BOS (Break of Structure) for confirmation Right-side inset illustration highlights expected distribution before drop. --- 🔎 Key Technical Levels: Supply Zone: 168.000 – 172.000 Current Price: 166.420 Target After Rejection: 150.000 – 148.000 Invalidation Above: 173.500 --- 🧩 Trading Plan: Wait for price action confirmation in the supply zone. Look for M15/H1 shift in structure and strong bearish engulfing patterns. Risk management is key: Place stop-loss above zone highs.
Short
by Greenfireforex
2
Bullish bounce off pullback support?USD/CHF is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 0.8066 Why we like it: There is a pullback support. Stop loss: 0.8031 Why we like it: There is a support level at the 61% Fibonacci projection and the 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Take profit: 0.8157 Why we lik eit: There is an overlap resistance level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets