Forex market
Bearish continuation?USD/CAD has rejected off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.3595
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Stop loss: 1.3644
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.3545
Why we like it:
There is a support level at the 100% and the 78.6% Fibonacci projection.
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GBPUSD | 2 Long Scenarios | The Empire will strike backGeneral
GBPUSD fell through the first big support zone (Zone 2) unless a reclaim i am not gonna look for longs currently. Personally waiting for price falling deeper into Zone 1. Marked 2 Scenarios that i would want to see to develop.
Be aware that i usually use LTF (such as the 1 hour chart to plan my entries). Meaning the SLs and RR are not completly correct as shown.
1. Long (Green arrow)
Price moves below Zone 1. Reclaim. Enter on reclaim.
Target: Slightly below Zone 3
Stop- Loss: Depending on the LTF entry i wouldnt want to see it going below Zone 1 again
Time duration: Days, weeks, months, years... ;)
2. Long (Orange arrow)
Price pushes into Zone 1, reacts supportive and then generates a Swing. Enter on breaking of the generated swing.
Target: Slightly below Zone 3
Stop- Loss: A bit below of top of the Zone 1
Time duration: Days, weeks, months, years... ;)
Good luck
Disclaimer:
- This information does not constitute as financial advice and is only for educational purposes. I am not your financial advisor.
- You trade entirely at your own risk
- Make your own research
- Finance and trading is evil, capitalism is bad, duh ;)
AUDCAD - Medium term prediction - 16/06/25For AUD/CAD at 0.8811 here, I’d estimate roughly:
Rally above 0.9130 first ~35%
Drop below 0.8492 first ~65%
Why the skew toward the downside?
Recent rejection at 0.9130 – price failed there in late Feb/Mar and again in June, showing that ceiling still holds.
Lower‐high bias – since topping at 0.9130, each bounce has come in lower (now around 0.887 → 0.899 → 0.887), hinting at sellers stepping in earlier.
Momentum cooling – the last few daily candles are firm to the downside with little bullish follow‐through, suggesting a greater chance to test the bottom of the band before tagging the top.
USDJPY - Medium term prediction - 16/06/25For USD/JPY at 144.11, weighing the daily range (139.58–148.65) and recent price action, I’d estimate roughly:
Slide below 139.58 first ~60%
Rally above 148.65 first ~40%
Reasoning
Range position: We’re in the upper half of a well-defined 139.58–148.65 band—mean regression favors a move back toward the lower boundary.
Failed rallies: Price has tried three times (Feb, Apr, May) to breach 148.65 and faltered, suggesting that resistance remains firm.
Momentum: Recent advances lack conviction—the daily candles are indecisive with wicks on both ends, hinting at exhaustion.
Bearish longer‐term tilt: From last summer’s high (~162), USD/JPY has carved lower highs, putting the overall bias slightly skewed to the downside until a clean break above 148.65.
NZDUSD - Medium term prediction - 16/06/25For NZD/USD at 0.6017 here, I’d put the odds roughly at:
Rally above 0.6379 first ~60%
Drop below 0.5656 first ~40%
Why the slight tilt to the upside?
Higher‐low pattern: Since last autumn’s peak near 0.638, the lows have stepped up (≈0.550 → 0.565 → 0.582 → now 0.601), showing buyers pulling in earlier on each pullback.
Mid‐range flip: The 0.5656 zone held as support through April/May, and price has cleared the halfway mark of this range with follow-through buying.
Momentum: Daily candles on the advances have been clean, and there’s no obvious bearish divergence warning yet—leaving room for another leg up to 0.638.
That said, 0.6379 is a strong multi-month ceiling, so there remains a meaningful ~40% chance of rolling over back toward 0.5656 before tagging the top.
AUDUSD - Medium term prediction - 16/06/25For AUD/USD here (0.6487) I’d peg the odds roughly at:
Rally above 0.6943 first ~60%
Drop below 0.6031 first ~40%
Why a tilt to the upside?
Higher-low structure: Since last year’s low near 0.594, price has formed progressively higher retracements (0.620 → 0.635 → 0.648).
Momentum: Daily candles have been predominantly bullish with shallow pullbacks, and there’s room before any clear overbought signals.
Mid‐range flip: The 0.6031 zone has held as support and the current range midpoint (~0.649) has been reclaimed on a sustained basis—suggesting buyers are in control through the mid‐band.
AUDJPY - Medium term prediction - 16/06/25On AUD/JPY from here (93.50), the odds favor a slide back toward 86.05 over a rally to 100.94:
Down‐trend bias
After topping near 108 last summer, price has carved a lower high (~96) and is struggling under 94–95.
Range dynamics
You’re in the bottom half of the 86.05–100.94 band; mean‐reversions tend to gravitate back toward the “midpoint” or beyond, and this one has already tested the bottom once in April.
Momentum
Recent daily closes have made lower highs, and there’s no bullish divergence on RSI to suggest strong lift.
Drop below 86.05 first ~65%
Rally above 100.94 first ~35%
AUD/CHF:Bearish Momentum Strengthens with 3 Key Technical SignalThe AUD/CHF currency pair has recently displayed compelling bearish characteristics across both the daily and weekly timeframes, reinforcing the current downtrend and presenting a potential continuation opportunity for trend-following traders.
Technical Breakdown:
1. Daily Chart – Bearish "Falling Three Soldiers"
On the daily chart, AUD/CHF has formed a textbook "falling three soldiers" candlestick pattern. This formation consists of three consecutive bearish candles following a temporary bullish retracement, signaling strong selling pressure and a likely continuation of the prior downtrend. This pattern typically reflects increasing control by sellers and a lack of significant bullish response.
2. Weekly Chart – Bearish Engulfing Pattern
Zooming out to the weekly timeframe, the pair recently printed a bearish engulfing candle , a classic reversal signal. The bearish engulfing fully overshadows the prior bullish candle, signaling a strong shift in momentum in favor of the bears. When found at a swing high or resistance area, this pattern adds significant weight to a bearish bias.
3. Price Below 50 EMA and 200 EMA
Further confirmation comes from the moving average setup. AUD/CHF is currently trading below both the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) . This alignment reinforces the downtrend, with the 50 EMA acting as a dynamic resistance level. The gap between price and the EMAs suggests sustained bearish pressure and little sign of bullish recovery in the near term.
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Market Sentiment and Outlook:
From a broader perspective, the Swiss Franc (CHF) often benefits from risk-off sentiment due to its status as a safe haven, while the Australian Dollar (AUD) is considered more risk-sensitive. With global risk sentiment facing headwinds from inflationary pressures, central bank uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions, AUD may remain under pressure against CHF.
Traders could look for pullbacks into resistance — such as the 50 EMA or previous support-turned-resistance levels — to consider short entries with confirmation , ideally supported by bearish candlestick patterns or momentum indicators.
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Conclusion:
With multiple layers of bearish confluence — the falling three soldiers on the daily chart, the bearish engulfing pattern on the weekly, and price action firmly below the 50 and 200 EMAs — the technical bias for AUD/CHF remains strongly bearish . Until the pair reclaims key moving averages or prints a reversal structure, the path of least resistance continues to point downward.
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EURJPY - Medium term prediciton - 16/06/25Higher‐lows structure
Since March, EUR/JPY has carved a series of higher lows (~156 → 160 → 162 → 164), signaling buyers stepping in sooner each pullback.
Recent breakout
The pair just cleared the prior swing high around 166.0 with follow-through buying—classic mid-range bullish bias.
Momentum & RSI
Daily RSI is trending upward without overbought exhaustion yet, leaving room to run toward resistance.
Rally to 175.4 ~65% Needs a clean break above 167.5 → 170 → 175.4
Drop to 154.4 ~35% Would require a bearish reversal under 164 → 162
AUD-CHF Pullback Ahead! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
AUD-CHF made a retest
Of the strong wide horizontal
Resistance around 0.5289
And we are already seeing a
Local pullback so we are
Locally bearish biased and
We will be expecting a
Further bearish move down
On Monday
Sell!
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GBPJPY - Medium term prediction - 16/06/25Here’s how I see GBP/JPY in this well-defined range:
Key levels
Resistance: 199.81 (multiple rejections since late 2023)
Support: 191.43 (holds going back to mid-2024)
Range dynamics
Price has spent the last 18 months oscillating between these two lines—no sustained trend outside the band.
We’re currently stuck just below the midpoint (~195.6) with failure to break higher into 196–197.
Momentum & recent action
Near-term momentum is drifting lower (series of lower highs into resistance).
No bullish catalyst convincing enough to clear 197–199.
Slide down to 191.43 ~60% Favors another mean-reversion off the top half of range
Rally up to 199.81 ~40% Needs a clear break above 196.5 with follow-through
EURUSD - Medium term prediction - 16/06/25For this long off 1.1193 targeting 1.1909 vs. a retrace back under 1.1193, I’d peg the probabilities roughly as:
Outcome Probability
Rally above 1.1909 first ~75%
Drop below 1.1193 first ~25%
Rationale
Bullish breakout: EUR/USD has convincingly flipped 1.115–1.120 into support and cleared the 1.15–1.16 ceiling with follow‐through.
Momentum: Daily candles show clean advances with little upper‐wick rejection; RSI/MACD remain in bullish territory without overbought exhaustion.
Bear case stretch: To return under 1.1193, price would need to wipe out the entire breakout and break multiple support layers (1.1550, 1.1400, 1.1200) — a lower‐probability scenario absent a major macro shock.
USDCAD - Medium term prediction - 16/06/25Given the daily down-trend and your clear break below the 1.3729 pivot, the path of least resistance is down toward 1.3420 rather than back up to 1.3729:
Trend
USD/CAD has been in a multi-month down-trend from the 1.4800 highs, carving lower highs and lower lows.
Broken support → resistance
That 1.3729 level failed as support in late May and should now act as resistance on any rally.
Momentum
Recent daily closes are rolling over into new lows, with no bullish divergence to suggest a reversal yet.
Slide to 1.3420 ~70% Down-trend continuation into the next demand zone
Rally back to 1.3729 ~30% Requires reclaiming 1.3600–1.3650 and bullish follow-through
EURJPY Breaks Out From Major Zone, Eyes Higher LevelsEURJPY Update, structure remains bullish
The pair has officially broken above a key resistance zone, showing solid bullish intent. This breakout is even more meaningful when you look at how price has been consistently supported by the long-term rising trendline. Every time price touched this trendline, it bounced with strength — and this time is no different.
The recent move suggests that buyers are firmly in control, and with the structure now pushing above resistance, momentum could continue to build.
As long as EURJPY holds above this breakout zone, the path of least resistance is to the upside.
DYOR, NFA
EURUSD:Sharing of the Trading Strategy for Next WeekAll the trading signals this week have resulted in profits!!! Check it!!!👉👉👉
Fundamental Analysis:
U.S. May retail sales unexpectedly declined, signaling weak consumption momentum and reinforcing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, weighing on the U.S. dollar.
While the eurozone manufacturing PMI remains in contraction territory, a month-on-month improvement has supported the euro to some extent.
Technical Analysis :
The MACD indicator stays above the zero line with bullish histogram alignment, indicating dominant bullish momentum.Bollinger Bands are slightly widening upward, with price trading above the middle band (support near 1.1500).The RSI at 55 suggests strong bullish sentiment.Price has found support multiple times in the 1.1520–1.1530 zone, forming a key support range.
Trading Strategy:
Initiate long positions after price stabilizes in the 1.1520–1.1530 zone on pullbacks.
buy@ 1.15200–1.15300
TP:1.15800-1.16000
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