Long IdeaWhen this occurs, it is not uncommon to see price approach the line, and
"throw a spike" over the line. At other times price might approach but not
quite reach the previous high or low. This tells you that the current price is
already on the correct side. You will therefore expect the price to "bounce
down” or “bounce up" as the case may be. This will most often occur
around the time of the London open. You should recall that this is likely to
be part of the market makers aim of keeping traders trapped. If they've
already made a high for instance, and there are positions trapped here then
they will not want to push price above it again but will then approach it,
perhaps even spike with an enlarged spread and pull away again.
Forex market
GJ Update - June 14 - 4HI don’t trade triangles, but I don’t ignore them either. A breakout to the upside is possible, but as long as price stays below a key resistance level, my primary bias remains short. Even if price breaks higher, I’ll stay cautious and operate on the 1H timeframe as usual. GJ is known for sharp drops. I expect a clear move within the next two weeks. On Monday, I’ll have a better view on my entry and exit for the week.
CAD_CHF SHORT FROM RESISTANCE|
✅CAD_CHF has retested a key resistance level of 0.5990
And as the pair is already making a bearish pullback
A move down to retest the demand level below at 0.5960 is likely
SHORT🔥
✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
NZD-CAD Free Signal! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
NZD-CAD is about to retest
A horizontal support level
Of 0.8161 from where we
Will be expecting a local
Bullish rebound so we can
Enter a long trade with the
Take Profit of 0.8191 and
The Stop Loss of 0.8153
Buy!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
EUR/JPY Weekly & H1 AnalysisLast week, we saw price close at weekly resistance (resistance from October 2024).
We may see a similar reaction as we move into a new trading week.
The H1 chart could give us our first clues with an early change of cycle.
If you agree with the analysis, look for opportunities to trade that meet your own strategy rules and always use good risk management.
GBPUSD WEEKLY HTF FORECAST Q2 W25 Y25GBPUSD WEEKLY HTF FORECAST Q2 W25 Y25
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
💭NOTE- If price closes above the key weekly/ daily order block with daily close- re evaluation will be required.
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
GBPCHF Breaks Rising Wedge – Reversal Targets 1.0940 and 1.0815GBPCHF has broken down from a rising wedge formation on the 4H chart, signaling a shift from bullish momentum to bearish control. The pattern break comes near the 50% retracement level, with price now trading below ascending trendline support. With fundamental headwinds weighing on the British pound and safe-haven demand supporting the Swiss franc, the setup favors a short bias targeting the 1.0940 and 1.0815 zones.
🔍 Technical Analysis
Pattern: Rising wedge → broken to the downside
Breakout Confirmation: Price has closed below the wedge support (trendline)
Key Support Levels:
1.0940 → 38.2% fib + previous structure support
1.0815 → 23.6% fib retracement + horizontal support zone
1.0608 → Full wedge base (longer-term target)
Resistance / Invalidation:
1.1150 – a close back above this level invalidates the breakdown
Candle Behavior:
Bearish structure forming with lower highs
Clean engulfing candle closed below wedge
📉 Bias: Bearish (confirmed technical reversal)
🌍 Fundamental Context
🇬🇧 British Pound (GBP)
UK CPI expected to rise (3.3% forecast), which may limit BoE cuts, but not bullish enough to support GBP
Political uncertainty resurfaces (Labour slipping in polls)
BoE speakers are split; no clear support from policy
🇨🇭 Swiss Franc (CHF)
Safe-haven flows rising on:
Global growth slowdown
Tensions between U.S.–Iran
Downgrade of U.S. debt → risk aversion favors CHF
SNB remains cautious, but CHF gains defensive strength in risk-off conditions
🎯 Trade Setup
Bias: Sell
Entry Zone: 1.1080–1.1100 (breakout confirmation)
Targets:
TP1: 1.0940
TP2: 1.0815
TP3: 1.0608 (extension target)
Stop Loss: Above 1.1150
⚠️ Risk Factors
CPI surprise tomorrow could cause GBP spikes — be cautious around the release
If equities rally hard or CHF weakens globally, price could retest the wedge structure before falling
BoE hawkish surprise could challenge short-term bearish bias
🧭 Conclusion
GBP/CHF has broken out of a rising wedge — a classic bearish reversal signal. The technical break aligns with macro weakness in GBP and CHF strength in a risk-off environment. Short trades remain valid below 1.1150, targeting a drop to 1.0940 and 1.0815 in the coming sessions.
EURUSD WEEKLY HTF FORECAST Q2 W25 Y25EURUSD WEEKLY HTF FORECAST Q2 W25 Y25
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
💭NOTE- If price closes above the key weekly/ daily order block with daily close- re evaluation will be required.
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
GBPJPY WEEKLY HTF FORECAST Q2 W25 Y25GBPJPY WEEKLY HTF FORECAST Q2 W25 Y25
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Re-defining Trading Psychology: A Functional ApproachRethinking Trading Psychology: A Functional Definition
Trading psychology is often misunderstood or overly simplified in trading discourse. Psychology, by definition, is the scientific study of the mind and behavior. When applied to trading, trading psychology should be defined as the study of how our mental processes directly influence market structure through behavior—specifically through the act of placing trades.
The Facts: How Humans Influence the Market
Traders interact with the market in only a few meaningful ways:
Placing entries
Setting stop losses
Setting take-profit (target) levels
Though external variables such as news events can impact decision-making, they only affect where we choose to interact with the market—they do not directly move price. Price only responds to order flow , and all order flow originates from trader decisions. Therefore, these three actions—entries, stops, and targets—are the only real mechanisms through which psychology influences price action.
Entry: The Initiator of Market Movement
Entries are typically based on structural cues like engulfing candles or order blocks —price zones where a shift in momentum is visible. These areas act as high-probability triggers that prompt traders to take action in a particular direction.
When enough buy orders are placed at a bullish signal, we see that reflected in the strength and size of bullish candles. Conversely, strong bearish signals generate concentrated sell-side pressure. This collective order flow initiates price movement—entries are the impulse drivers of the market.
Stop Losses: The Creation of Liquidity Pools
Once a position is opened, traders generally place stop losses behind significant structure—often just beyond the order block or engulfing pattern that prompted the entry. These zones become liquidity pools —clusters of pending orders that, when triggered, cause mass exits and reallocation of capital.
When price returns to these zones, it forces traders out of the market, often resulting in sharp movements or false breakouts. This behavior is not coincidental; it is a byproduct of shared psychological behavior manifesting as clustered risk management.
Take-Profits: Delayed Exit Pressure
Alongside stop losses, traders also define target levels where they plan to close their trades. These levels can be calculated based on fixed R-multiples (2R, 3R, etc.) or drawn from contextual zones like previous highs/lows or supply and demand areas.
As price moves into profit and hits these levels, traders begin to exit en masse. This diminishes order flow in the direction of the trade, often leading to hesitation or minor reversals—much like stop losses do when they are hit.
Conclusion: Market Movement vs. Market Stalling
To summarize:
Entries drive market movement
Stop losses and target levels stall or reverse movement
This dynamic defines how human behavior—guided by psychological patterns—actually shapes price. In this framework, engulfments represent entry logic , while liquidity zones represent collective exit logic .
Redefining Trading Psychology
Contrary to popular belief, trading psychology isn’t just about “staying disciplined” or “keeping emotions in check.” While emotional control matters, it’s secondary to understanding how trader behavior creates cause-and-effect loops in price action.
Having a trading plan is important—but deviating from that plan is not always due to emotion alone. It can stem from overconfidence, impulsivity, cognitive bias, or poor conditioning. These are psychological behaviors that affect execution, and thus, affect market movement.
What’s Next
In my next writing, I will explore how the sheer volume of market participants leads to herding behavior —the collective patterns that emerge from mass psychology and their role in creating consolidation zones, liquidity traps, and false breakouts.
EUR/NZD Bullish Continuation Given this macro backdrop, EUR-crosses—especially EUR/NZD—are benefiting from increased upward pressure. Here's how I’m viewing the current market structure:
Key Technical Outlook:
📍 Scenario 1 – Intraday Momentum Entry:
Watch how the market opens and closes on Monday. If price respects current support and shows bullish intent on the lower timeframes (e.g., 1H or 15M), that could be an ideal entry point to ride the continuation of this bullish trend.
📍 Scenario 2 – Breakout & Retest Entry:
A more conservative but higher-probability setup involves waiting for a clear breakout above the major resistance level (marked by a red horizontal line on my chart). Once broken, monitor for a pullback and look to enter on the retest with a proper risk management strategy.
USDJPY 1W forecast until September 2025A huge inverted Head&Shoulders has been started. Volatility chop-chop. Left shoulder is ready and the price is heading up to the base at 145.188
In the middle of June we will see a fast fall to print Head bottoming at 138.75
Before printing Right shoulder the price has to visit the base again in the beginning of August 2025
What will happen in September? I will keep posting and updating (if I see necessity) 1W chart here. For 1D weekly updates check 'Also on' in my Profile.
USDJPY 1W tf forecast until August 2025 Current midterm bias is bullish. 150,64 and 142,78 are extreme levels to be respected by the price action. One more week of red week of sideways movement will actually form a reversal pattern followed by a strong upward spike. A powerful breakout to 148,27 is to be retested at 145,34 - healthy retest. July will show an organic growth topping at 149.66 in the beginning of August 2025
My Thoughts #016HTF
The pair is in a bullish trend
In the trend it's currently making a new HH on the lower time frame.
LTF
Since it's making a HH it means it's in a bullish trend
Currently in the bullish it's making a HL
It could sell and drop lower to invalidate the set up
Use proper risk management
Let's do the most
EURUSD ANALYSIS - LONGPrice has successfully broken out of the falling wedge on both the daily and weekly charts, signaling strong bullish momentum. After hitting resistance around 1.1555 (61.8% Fib), we’re seeing a healthy pullback towards 1.1500-1.1488 support. As long as bulls defend 1.1400, I’m looking for continuation towards 1.1555 and 1.1894 swing targets. Watching price action closely at the current pullback zone for potential long entries.
GBPJPY : Could price break the resistance area?Looking at the 1-hour chart of GBP/JPY, price is currently trading around 195.53, caught between two significant zones. Immediate resistance lies around the 196.40–196.50 area, where price has previously rejected several times—this is a strong supply zone.
On the downside, the 194.40–194.60 zone acts as key support and demand, with price bouncing off this level multiple times, showing buyers are still defending it.
The overall structure still respects a higher low formation, supported by an ascending trendline from the end of May, suggesting bullish bias unless that structure breaks.
Next week, keep an eye on UK CPI and BOE rate decision—both could be big movers. If CPI comes in hot, it could spark bullish momentum and push GBP/JPY through the 196.50 ceiling.
On the other hand, dovish BOE commentary could reverse sentiment fast. For now, potential long entries could be considered near 194.60 support with targets toward 196.50, while shorts might be taken around the resistance zone with tight stops and confirmation.
Always watch for breakout or rejection signs at these levels before committing.
GBP/AUD Trade Setup: Bullish Outlook Aligned with Fundamentals
📊 Market Insight: How Base Currencies Drive the Market
One key lesson I’ve learned from my mentor is this:
When a base currency is trending, it often pulls the entire forex market with it.
For example:
When the Dollar Index (DXY) is trending, the whole forex market tends to move with momentum.
When the DXY is ranging, the entire forex market often consolidates or lacks clear direction.
The same applies to EURUSD, another major pair. If EURUSD is trending, the whole market tends to trend. If it’s ranging, most of the market reflects that indecision.
This happens because the USD and EUR are two of the most influential currencies in global markets — they affect risk sentiment, liquidity, and overall volatility.
---
🔍 GBP/AUD Analysis: The Power of Multi-Timeframe Perspective
This week, I was analyzing GBP/AUD. My initial bias was bearish — I saw what looked like a clear drop and assumed the pair was falling.
But I made a common mistake:
I was zoomed in too closely, focused only on the lower timeframe structure.
When I finally zoomed out to view the higher timeframes, I saw a different story:
The market was not actually falling.
What looked like a downtrend was just a retracement.
It was a liquidity grab, tapping into demand zones and trendline support before continuing upward.
This shift gave me clarity:
GBP/AUD is still in a bullish trend and what I was seeing was just a setup for the next move higher.
---
🌍 Fundamental Bias: USD Weakness, GBP Strength
Looking across the market:
The Dollar Index is falling, signaling USD weakness.
As a result, pairs like EURUSD and GBP/USD are rising.
This tells me that GBP is currently strong, especially against weaker currencies like AUD.
So, with GBP/USD trending bullish, it supports the idea that GBP/AUD will also rise, given GBP strength and AUD relative weakness.
---
✅ Trading Plan for the Week Ahead
I use the weekend to prepare for the upcoming trading week by aligning my technical setups with fundamental bias.
Current status:
✅ All technical confirmations are in place.
✅ My bias for GBP/AUD is bullish.
🕒 I’m waiting for the Monday open to see where price begins to trade from.
📉 Then I’ll drop to the lower timeframes (M15–H1) to find my entry.
My targets are:
🎯 Target 1: Marked by the blue line on my chart
🎯 Target 2: Marked by the red line
🎯 Target 3: Higher up, beyond visible chart range due to screen limitations
💡 Final Takeaway
This experience reinforces the importance of:
Multi-timeframe analysis
Zooming out to see the bigger picture
Aligning technical setups with fundamental trends
It’s not just about what the chart shows in the moment — it’s about the broader context driving the market.
GBP/USD Technical OutlookGBP/USD is exhibiting signs of bearish momentum, with clear bearish divergence observed on the oscillator, signaling potential exhaustion of the recent uptrend. A double top formation is developing near the recent highs, further supporting the bearish bias. Price action is also approaching a key trendline and the lower boundary of an ascending channel. A confirmed break below these technical structures would validate the formation of a new lower high, offering a high-probability short setup.