Forex market
USDCAD Analysis Today: Technical and Order Flow Analysis !In this video I will be sharing my USDCAD analysis today, by providing my complete technical and order flow analysis, so you can watch it to possibly improve your forex trading skillset. The video is structured in 3 parts, first I will be performing my complete technical analysis, then I will be moving to the COT data analysis, so how the big payers in market are moving their orders, and to do this I will be using my customized proprietary software and then I will be putting together these two different types of analysis.
GBPJPY Hello traders.
Today's first trade comes from the GBPJPY pair. The trade is currently active on my side, and I’m happy to share it with you as well.
🔍 Trade Details
✔️ Timeframe: 15-Minute
✔️ Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:2
✔️ Trade Direction: Buy
✔️ Entry Price: 195.715
✔️ Take Profit: 196.260
✔️ Stop Loss: 195.444
🔔 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I’m simply sharing a trade I’ve taken based on my personal trading system, strictly for educational and illustrative purposes.
📌 Interested in a systematic, data-driven trading approach?
💡 Follow the page and turn on notifications to stay updated on future trade setups and advanced market insights.
AUDCHF: Bullish Flag from PRZ — Rally to 0.54444?AUDCHF ( OANDA:AUDCHF ) bounced from the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) , which aligns with the Yearly Support(1) and the 50% Fibonacci level of the previous bullish impulse.
From a Classic Technical Analysis perspective , AUDCHF appears to be breaking out of a Bullish Flag Pattern , which may suggest the continuation of the previous uptrend .
This bullish reaction also confirms the importance of the Support zone(0.51166 CHF-0.49773 CHF) , where buyers stepped in aggressively.
In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that AUDCHF has completed the bearish waves and we should wait for the bullish waves .
I expect AUDCHF to continue rising after a successful breakout from the flag’s upper boundary . If momentum sustains, the target could be around 0.54444 CHF .
Note: Stop Loss (SL) = 0.51972 CHF
Australian Dollar/ Swiss Franc Analyze (4-hour time frame).
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
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Path Toward 1.20 Still in Play but there's a catch....The pair has recently completed a major technical breakout by moving above a long standing trendline that dates back to the 2008 high. For more than 15 yearsthis trendline acted as strong resistance, repeatedly rejecting bullish attempts. The latest move did not just break through this resistance. It returned to retest the level around the 1.1450 to 1.1500 area and held with near perfect precision. This successful retest signaled a structural shift, turning former resistance into solid support. Since then, the pair has remained within a steep upward channel, forming higher lows and maintaining strong upside momentum. This momentum appears to be backed by real macro flows rather than just short-term speculation.
The euro’s recent strength is not being driven by strong economic performance in the Eurozone. Instead, it reflects a broader shift in global capital allocation and diverging monetary policy expectations. The Federal Reserve began easing policy in late 2024 with a series of rate cuts aimed at responding to softening inflation and slowing labor market conditions. By early 2025, the Fed had completed a handful of cuts before entering a pause. That pause remains in effect for now but markets are increasingly expecting the Fed to resume cutting later this year, with 2 to 3 additional cuts projected for the second half of 2025. These expectations have weakened the dollar as traders anticipate a return to more accommodative policy. (This is known as pricing in or speculative markets)
On the European side, the European Central Bank began cutting rates in late 2024 (Duh we all know this by now) and is now widely seen as operating in neutral territory. The ECB has taken a careful and measured approach to easing, avoiding any aggressive dovish turn and instead emphasizing a data dependent path. With limited room to cut further and no urgent economic pressure to do so, the euro has maintained a relative yield advantage compared to the dollar, even in a context of muted growth.
Another important driver of euro strength has been the rotation of capital into U.S. equities, particularly in the technology and large cap sectors. As investors allocate more capital into risk assets, the dollar tends to weaken in FX terms, as funding shifts out of USD and into growth exposures (aka emerging markets) This type of flow indirectly benefits the euro. At the same time the dollar is no longer acting as a dominant safe haven for now. Despite the presence of global uncertainty, low market volatility and return focused positioning have reduced the appeal of defensive USD flows. This has allowed the euro to benefit from repositioning, not because of its own economic strength, but because the dollar is no longer absorbing global liquidity the way it once did.
From a technical standpoint, the breakout above the 2008 trendline marks a significant structural change. As long as the 1.1500 area holds as support, the trend remains intact. The next major upside target is around 1.20, which aligns with the top of the rising price channel and represents a likely area for medium term profit taking by larger market participants.
However , risks to the upside scenario remain. Because this rally is being driven by capital flows and positioning rather than Eurozone fundamentals, it is highly sensitive to shifts in sentiment and data. A stronger than expected U.S economic report, such as an upside surprise in CPI, employment or consumer spending, could quickly change the market’s view on the Fed’s rate path and trigger a resurgence in dollar strength. Similarly, any signal from the ECB that suggests renewed dovishness or further deterioration in European economic data, could weigh heavily on the euro. In addition, if a geopolitical shock or a sharp decline in risk appetite occurs, safe haven flows could return to the dollar and result in a fast reversal in EUR/USD. We saw a warning of this past weekend with Israel and Iran attacking each other.
all in all, the euro has made a technically sound and macro supported breakout, driven by diverging rate cycles, capital rotation and the evolving role of the U.S dollar in global flows. The move toward 1.20 remains a valid target as long as 1.1500 holds as support. But this is not a fundamentally bullish euro story. It is a positioning driven move based on relative rate expectations and macro sentiment. If those expectations shift, the rally could unwind quickly. Active risk management remains essential. I hope this helps you all, Cheers!
Chart
White dashed line - 2008 Resistance
Red and Blue Ascending channel (Bullish on Daily)
Red is 1.19-1.20 AOI TP
NZDCAD Monthly increaseThe New Zealand dollar (NZD) is showing strong potential for long-term appreciation against the Canadian dollar (CAD). Fundamentally, New Zealand's economy is benefiting from the RBNZ's cautious tightening stance and strong export performance in dairy and agriculture. Meanwhile, Canada faces reduced rate hike expectations from the BOC due to softer energy and housing sectors. Market sentiment favors higher-yielding commodity currencies like NZD, especially as risk appetite improves. Technically, NZD/CAD is forming higher lows on the monthly chart, signaling a bullish bias, with a potential breakout from its long-term range confirming further upside. Any short-term pullbacks could present buying opportunities for sustained gains.
Sasha Charkhchian
EUR/AUD Giving Amazing Bullish P.A , Ready To Get 150 Pips ?Here is my EUR/AUD 2H Chart , if we check the chart we will see that we have a very strong old res that forced the price to respect it may times and finally we have a great breakout and also we have a very good rejection to the area , so it`s the best place to enter a buy trade to go to the high again to see if we can take it also or not . if the price closed below the broken res and new support with daily candle , this mean the idea is not valid anymore .
USDJPY Swing trade Signal for the Sell Once in a while we like to give a free signal. So here is one of the many trades we will have running for our subscribers.
Wait for the 1 hour candle to close below the Entry, and then a response to our entry, then you can sell.
Remember the rules, and remember your risk/reward
USDJPY Sell
🦇Entry: 143.525
⚠️Sl: 145.036
✔️TP1: 142.153
✔️TP2: 140.346
✔️TP3: 138.109
Happy trading. Any problems feel free to contact me, as over 10 years as a professional trader I can assure you there is no such thing as a stupid question.
Best,
Sarah
THE PILLARS OF PRICE ACTION - This is what I look for!!!!All the information you need to find a high probability trade are in front of you on the charts so build your trading decisions on 'the facts' of the chart NOT what you think or what you want to happen or even what you heard will happen. If you have enough facts telling you to trade in a certain direction and therefore enough confluence to take a trade, then this is how you will gain consistency in you trading and build confidence. Check out my trade idea!!
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Smart Money Just Flipped Bearish on USD/CAD. Are You Still Long?🧠 1. COT Context & Institutional Flows
🇨🇦 CAD COT Report (CME) – June 10, 2025
Non-Commercials (speculators): net short 93,143 contracts (19,651 long vs. 112,794 short), with a short reduction of -14,319 → early bearish unwinding.
Commercials: net long 91,207 contracts (223,285 long vs. 132,078 short), with strong accumulation (+27,999 longs).
🔄 Net open interest change: +18,436 → renewed institutional interest on the long CAD side.
🇺🇸 USD Index COT Report (ICE) – June 10, 2025
Non-Commercials: net long 1,402 contracts (17,027 long vs. 15,625 short), with a +1,279 increase in longs → modest USD support.
Commercials remain net short -35 contracts, no clear shift.
🔄 Total open interest +2,652 → mild bullish interest in USD.
📌 Implication: Strong institutional support for CAD, USD mildly supported. Net positioning favors downside pressure on USD/CAD.
💹 2. Technical Analysis & Price Action
Primary trend: clearly bearish from the 1.38 zone.
Current price: 1.3552, testing a macro demand zone (1.3470–1.3540).
Daily RSI remains deeply oversold → possible technical bounce, but no reversal structure confirmed.
Recent candles show lower highs and lower lows, with no bullish momentum.
📌 Implication: The bearish trend remains in control. A technical rebound is possible, but bias stays short as long as price trades below 1.3640.
📈 3. Retail Sentiment
77% of retail traders are long USD/CAD, with an average entry at 1.3646.
Only 23% are short, positioned better at 1.3790.
📌 Implication: Retail is heavily long → contrarian bearish signal confirmed.
📊 4. Seasonality
June is historically weak for USD/CAD:
5Y Avg: -0.0118
2Y Avg: -0.0081
The June seasonal curve shows a stronger downside acceleration into the second half of the month.
📌 Implication: Seasonality adds downward pressure into month-end.
EUR/USD SHORT FROM RESISTANCE
Hello, Friends!
We are now examining the EUR/USD pair and we can see that the pair is going up locally while also being in a uptrend on the 1W TF. But there is also a powerful signal from the BB upper band being nearby, indicating that the pair is overbought so we can go short from the resistance line above and a target at 1.143 level.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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USDJPY What Next? SELL!
My dear followers,
This is my opinion on the USDJPY next move:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 145.13
Bias - Bearish
Safe Stop Loss - 145.55
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clearshort signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market.
Goal - 144.31
About Used Indicators:
For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
EURO/USD a sharp bearish move is anticipated.Key Technical Elements
1. Market Structure
BOS (Break of Structure):
Clearly marked where price breaks a previous high, indicating a shift in market structure.
Order Block:
A bullish order block is highlighted after the BOS, where price later retests — showing smart money interest.
Demand Zone:
A prior demand zone helped fuel the breakout to the upside earlier on the chart.
2. Resistance & Supply Area
A resistance zone is marked at the top (approx. 1.16067), where price previously reversed.
A red short-entry zone (supply area) indicates a potential sell zone where price could react.
3. Support Zones
Immediate Support around 1.1500
Deeper Support around 1.13995
These levels are potential take-profit zones or retracement targets.
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Trade Idea Highlighted
Entry Zone: Around 1.15579 (current price)
Bearish Expectation:
Price is expected to rally slightly into the red zone (supply).
After rejection from this area, a sharp bearish move is anticipated.
Targets:
First Support Zone (~1.1500)
Second Deeper Support (~1.13995)
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Professional Commentary
This setup reflects a Smart Money Concept (SMC) strategy:
It uses order blocks, BOS, and liquidity zones to anticipate market direction.
The trader anticipates a lower high formation near resistance and a continuation to the downside.
Good use of confluence between structure, supply/demand, and support/resistance.
Squeeze in Progress: Will BOJ Trigger the Next Breakout?USDJPY 17/06 – Squeeze in Progress: Will BOJ Trigger the Next Breakout?
The USDJPY pair is currently consolidating just below the key 144.650 resistance, stuck within a tightening triangle structure. As markets await more clarity from both the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the Fed, price action is showing signs of indecision — but pressure is building.
🌐 Macro & Sentiment Overview
BOJ maintains a neutral stance: Despite growing speculation of a hawkish shift, the BOJ held rates steady, providing no strong forward guidance. Markets remain cautious.
US Dollar remains resilient amid stable bond yields and expectations that the Fed may delay rate cuts, adding short-term support to USDJPY.
Geopolitical risk is on the rise: Ongoing Middle East tensions are fueling safe-haven demand for JPY, capping bullish momentum.
🔍 Technical Setup (M30 Chart)
Price is trapped inside a symmetrical triangle, tightening between 144.652 resistance and 143.126 support.
EMA 13/34/89 are aligned bullishly, but EMA 200 (red) is acting as a dynamic ceiling near 144.300.
Key support zones:
144.071: Minor structural level and trendline test.
143.126: Major liquidity zone and untested demand.
🎯 Trade Scenarios
📉 Scenario 1 – Sell on Rejection at 144.652
Entry: 144.650–144.700
Stop Loss: 145.250
Take Profit: 144.071 → 143.600 → 143.126
Ideal if BOJ shifts tone or USD weakens post-Fed comments.
📈 Scenario 2 – Buy on Bullish Reaction at 143.126
Entry: 143.100–143.150
Stop Loss: 142.700
Take Profit: 143.600 → 144.071 → 144.650 → 145.200
Valid only with clear bullish confirmation on M15–M30 structure.
🧠 Final Thoughts
USDJPY is coiling tightly ahead of a potential breakout. Macro uncertainty from central banks, geopolitical instability, and upcoming CPI data make this week highly volatile. Instead of chasing, let price come to your zones and react accordingly.
🔔 Focus on structure, confirm with price action, and avoid emotional trades. Patience and discipline are key in this compression phase.
Bank of Japan Leaves Interest Rate UnchangedBank of Japan Leaves Interest Rate Unchanged
This morning, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) released its interest rate decision, keeping the rate unchanged as widely expected. According to Forex Factory, the BOJ Policy Rate remains at 0.5%.
BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda noted the following:
→ Japan’s economy is recovering moderately.
→ The Bank will continue raising rates if economic and inflationary conditions improve.
→ The situation surrounding trade tariffs remains highly uncertain.
The fact that the decision was anticipated by markets is reflected in price action on the charts.
Technical Analysis of the USD/JPY Chart
A brief spike in volatility occurred on the USD/JPY chart this morning, but it did not significantly alter the broader structure of price movements, which in June have formed a contracting triangle pattern.
In recent days, the pair has been climbing from the lower boundary of the triangle toward the upper edge, forming a short-term ascending channel (highlighted in blue). However, in the near term, this bullish momentum may weaken as the USD/JPY rate approaches the upper boundary of the triangle, which coincides with the psychologically significant level of 145 yen to the dollar (indicated by arrows).
From a medium-term perspective, traders should watch for a potential breakout from the triangle pattern, which could trigger a meaningful trend. One possible catalyst could be news of a trade agreement between the United States and Japan.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
GBPUSD I Daily CLS I KL - OB I Model 1 I High riskHey, Market Warriors, here is another outlook on this instrument
If you’ve been following me, you already know every setup you see is built around a CLS Footprint, a Key Level, Liquidity and a specific execution model.
If you haven't followed me yet, start now.
My trading system is completely mechanical — designed to remove emotions, opinions, and impulsive decisions. No messy diagonal lines. No random drawings. Just clarity, structure, and execution.
🧩 What is CLS?
CLS is real smart money — the combined power of major investment banks and central banks moving over 6.5 trillion dollars a day. Understanding their operations is key to markets.
✅ Understanding the behavior of CLS allows you to position yourself with the giants during the market manipulations — leading to buying lows and selling highs - cleaner entries, clearer exits, and consistent profits.
📍 Model 1
is right after the manipulation of the CLS candle when CIOD occurs, and we are targeting 50% of the CLS range. H4 CLS ranges supported by HTF go straight to the opposing range.
"Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own."
— David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to comment with your opinions, charts or any questions.
EUR/USD Poised for a Breakout? Watch 1.1510 CloselyEUR/USD is currently consolidating around the 1.1510 support zone after a mild pullback from the descending trendline. Price structure remains bullish, with a wedge pattern forming — signaling that a breakout could be imminent.
On the news front, expectations that the Fed may soon begin cutting rates — following a series of weak U.S. economic data — are weighing on the U.S. dollar. At the same time, easing geopolitical tensions are shifting market sentiment back toward risk assets.
If the 1.1510 support level holds firm, EUR/USD may stage a strong rebound to resume its upward momentum.
EURAUD Struggles at 1.7880—Signs of Exhaustion Signal Potential EURAUD Struggles at 1.7880—Signs of Exhaustion Signal Potential Downside
EURAUD has confirmed a strong resistance zone near 1.7880, as the price repeatedly failed to break higher. The four-hour candles indicate clear signs of bullish exhaustion, suggesting that further upside may be limited unless unexpected news shakes the market.
Without any significant developments to push the price above resistance, the pair is likely to face renewed selling pressure in the coming days.
Key downside targets to watch:
🔻 1.7700 🔻 1.7610 🔻 1.7510
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.