GBPUSD Analysis Today: Technical and Order Flow !In this video I will be sharing my GBPUSD analysis today, by providing my complete technical and order flow analysis, so you can watch it to possibly improve your forex trading skillset. The video is structured in 3 parts, first I will be performing my complete technical analysis, then I will be moving to the COT data analysis, so how the big payers in market are moving their orders, and to do this I will be using my customized proprietary software and then I will be putting together these two different types of analysis.
Forex market
USDJPY Bearish BreakdownChart Overview
The USDJPY pair on the 2-hour chart is currently forming a descending triangle pattern — a typical bearish continuation setup.
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Key Observations:
Resistance Line (Upper Trendline): Price is repeatedly rejected from lower highs.
Support Line (Lower Horizontal): Price maintains support around the 144.00–144.20 region.
Bearish Bias: The red arrow projection suggests a breakdown from the triangle, with a potential move toward 140.00 if the lower support fails.
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Potential Bearish Scenario:
1. Break below ~144.00 confirms the triangle breakdown.
2. First target around 142.00, second target near 140.00.
3. Stop-loss ideally above 145.00 if entering short.
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Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes and not financial advice. Always perform your own due diligence or consult a financial advisor before making trading decisions.
Bearish breakout off major support?USD/JPY is reacting off the pivot which acts as an overlap support and a breakout of this level could lead the price to drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 144.51
1st Support: 143.74
1st Resistance: 145.22
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EUR/USD (1-Hour Timeframe) – Bearish Trade Setup Explanation.This chart shows a potential short (sell) opportunity on EUR/USD based on the Smart Money Concept (SMC), focusing on Fair Value Gap (FVG) and Order Block (OB) confluence.
🔍 Key Zone Highlighted:
The price has retraced into a supply zone, which combines:
Fair Value Gap (FVG) – an imbalance created by a strong bearish move.
Order Block (OB) – the last bullish candle before a strong bearish push, now acting as resistance.
This confluence makes the zone (around 1.15870) a high-probability reversal area.
📉 Trade Plan:
Sell Entry: Near the current price at 1.15870, inside the FVG+OB zone.
Stop Loss (SL): Placed above the supply zone at 1.16400 to protect from invalidation.
Target 1: 1.15107 – conservative target based on previous support.
Final Target: 1.14100 – a lower liquidity zone that could be reached if bearish momentum continues.
💡 Logic Behind the Setup:
Price is reacting to a previously respected bearish OB + FVG.
Strong bearish impulse occurred from this zone earlier, suggesting institutional selling.
The retracement back into this zone presents a low-risk, high-reward short entry.
Expectation: price will reject from this zone and move down toward the targets.
✅ Risk-Reward Ratio:
The setup provides a favorable risk-to-reward ratio, especially if the final target is reached.
Bearish till 1.35158.Price has created a bearish Type 1 dealing range on the 1 hour chart within a type 2 dealing range. This warrants bearish price action till 1.35158. My entry is at 1.35892 which lines up with both the equilibrium price level of the range as well as the consequent encroachment of the balanced price range. Furthermore, note the market maker sell model formation on the 1H chart. This poses a high probability sell set-up.
GBPUSD - Next point of interestAfternoon All,
So our GBPUSD trade from earlier didn't quite go to plan however I knew full well that we were building liquidity to the left on the higher timeframe.
This will be my next point of interest for a potential long.
Lets see how price plays out when we get down there.
GBPUSD - LongUnfortunately I can't post the idea on the 5min to give you a better idea of where we are at in terms of the entry for this.
However I am looking to be tagged into this trade and have a limit order where I have set it.
Hoping to be tagged in. If we aren't we move on. and if we lose we move on.
If im able to help with any questions you may have do send them my way
Bearish continuation for the Swissie?The price is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 0.8156
1st Support: 0.8055
1st Resistance: 0.8241
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese YenThe price test at 144.27 occurred when the RSI indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, but the strong U.S. labor market data offered a high probability of the dollar strengthening against the yen, which I decided to take advantage of. As a result, the pair rose toward the target level of 145.06.
The confident growth in U.S. non-farm employment recorded in May exceeded experts' expectations' causing noticeable fluctuations in currency, markets. The publications of data showing the creation of 139,7000 new jobs versus the forecasted 127,000 instantly strengthened the U.S. dollar, putting pressure on the Japanese yen. The yen's reaction to the news was immediate: the currency weakened significantly against the dollar. Investors perceived the data as a signal of the strength of the U.S. economy and the likely continuation of Federal Reserve's tight monetary policy. Furthermore, the stable unemployment rate in the U.S. recorded at 4.2%, also reinforced the market's optimistic sentiment.
Today's data shows that Japan's GDP for the first quarter was revised upward, which helped the yen recover slightly from Friday's losses against the U.S. dollar. However, despite the positive revision, Japan's economy still faces serious challenges. Weak domestic demand and an aging population continue to pressure growth, while geopolitical uncertainty poses additional obstacles. The Bank of Japan maintains a wait-and-see approach and has no plans to raise interest rates for now, which had previously provided good support to the the yen. Strong growth in bank lending also contributed to increased demand for the yen.
SELL EURJPYIn todays session we are monitoring EURJPY for selling opportunity. Our entry is at 167.302 our stop is above 168.000 and targets are below 165.200. Use proper risk management and remember the stop loss should be adjusted based on your risk management, sometimes it can be too tight or it can be extended depending on validity of a set up . Cheers to you all.
EUR/USD CRAZZYY BULLISH BIAS (SMC Perspective) | 1H Outlook🔍 Analysis Summary:
Price is consolidating above a clear demand zone after breaking previous structure to the upside.
We’ve seen liquidity engineered above the swing high (marked X), followed by internal structure developing.
I’m watching for a sweep into demand (grey zone) between 1.1520 – 1.1540, followed by a bullish reaction.
Expecting a bullish BOS (Break of Structure) on the lower timeframe to confirm continuation to 1.16340.
📌 Key Levels:
Demand Zone: 1.1520 – 1.1540
Liquidity Sweep: Above recent highs (1.1596)
Target Zone: 1.16340
Invalidation: Clean break below 1.1500
🗓️ Fundamental Drivers to Watch:
USD Weakness – Driven by:
Recent soft CPI & PPI data (cooling inflation)
Increased chances of Fed rate cuts (starting September 2025)
Risk-on market sentiment pushing money out of the USD
Upcoming News Events:
Wed 19 June – Fed Chair Powell Speaks 🗣️
→ Any dovish tone supports the bullish EUR/USD case
Thu 20 June – Initial Jobless Claims 📉
→ A higher-than-expected print could confirm labor market weakness = USD bearish
Fri 21 June – Flash Manufacturing/Services PMI (EUR & USD)
→ EUR strength + weak US data can fuel upside
🧠 My Plan:
Watch for a liquidity sweep into demand
Wait for bullish confirmation on M15 or M5
Target previous high & continuation toward 1.16340
💬 Follow for more SMC-based breakdowns. Let’s stay sharp and react, not predict.
#EURUSD #SMC #SmartMoney #LiquiditySweep #ForexTrading #OrderBlocks #sam_trades_smc #PriceAction #FOMC #Fed #USD
USD/JPYIn my previous analysis, I held a long bias on USD/JPY; however, recent geopolitical tensions and market-moving news have shifted the outlook. The pair has now broken below a key trendline, forming new lower lows, suggesting a potential change in structure.
At this point, two possible scenarios could unfold:
Scenario 1: USD/JPY may retest the breakout zone around the 145.000 level before continuing its move downward.
Scenario 2: The pair may continue its bearish momentum, break through the next significant support at 142.480, and potentially offer a shorting opportunity following a confirmed retest of that level.
Although the chart has shown mixed signals with both bullish and bearish formations, I’m reminded of an insightful quote I read this morning by Mihai_Iacob: “Trade the chart, respect the world around it.”
With that in mind, I will continue to focus on technical structure while remaining mindful of external factors such as geopolitical events and high-impact news that could influence volatility and market direction.
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 17, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) continues to experience significant pressure against the US dollar (USD), showing a three-day decline and trading above the key psychological level of 145.000. This weakening is largely due to growing market expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may delay raising rates until the first quarter of next year. The main reason for this delay is said to be the continuing uncertainty surrounding future US tariff policy, which could have a significant impact on global trade flows and Japan's economic growth. Moderate but steady growth in the US dollar is also contributing to the strengthening of the USD/JPY position, pushing the pair to new highs during the Asian trading session.
However, market participants are cautious about aggressive bearish bets against the yen ahead of the upcoming Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting. This meeting is seen as a critical event that could provide additional signals about the central bank's long-term policy outlook. Any hints of a change in tone or new assessments of the economic situation will be carefully analyzed by traders.
In addition to central bank decisions, growing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may help limit deeper losses for the Japanese yen. As a traditional “safe haven,” the yen typically attracts investors during periods of global instability, which may offset some of the negative impact of interest rate differentials. In addition, the outlook for the USD/JPY pair is influenced by the growing recognition that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may lower borrowing costs in 2025. Expectations of future Fed rate cuts could hinder further strengthening of the US dollar and thus limit the upside potential of the USD/JPY pair. Overall, the market remains in anticipation of key decisions that will determine the future trajectory of one of the world's most actively traded currency pairs.
Trading recommendation: SELL 144.550, SL 145.000, TP 143.600
Bearish drop?The Cable (GBPUSD) is rising towards the pivot, which is a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 1.3592
1st Support: 1.3536
1st Resistance: 1.3629
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bullish bounce?EUR/USD is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.1480
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.1438
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 71% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.1542
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance.
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EURUSD H1 I Bearish Reversal Based on the H1 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 1.1570, which is a pullback resistance aligning with a 38.2% Fib retracement.
Our take profit will be at 1.1528, an overlap support level.
The stop loss will be placed at 1.1609, a multi-swing high resistance.
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