Qqq... tech wreck incomingIt's a been awhile since I covered Tech and the sectors..
To make a long story short, I think the rally from April low is about 95% completed and anything up here is Distribution...
After Distribution, usually a correction comes and given the Sept Seasonality I think this correcti9m could be 7-12%.
Here's Qqq on the monthly...
At this pace , the monthly trendline can be met at 585 give or take which is only 1% away.. with us being so close to resistance, they will not be able to push everything all at once.. in the next week or so you will start seeing more and more divergence where only a select few will pump this across the 585 goal line.
Also on the monthly time frame, you can see that Qqq is outside its Bollinger bands, we won't make it out of Sept with that setup.
Daily chart
Daily candle is 60% outside its Bbands.. this is always a red flag on the indexes... Some Meme stocks like PLTR or Crcl may rally outside bbands but the indexes usually don't hold more that a day outside.. only in a few Seasonality squeezes Nov-Jan have I seen this
Being outside Bollinger bands and near monthly and daily trendline is terrible Risk for a long here.
Now the sectors..
There are really 4 main sectors that move Qqq.
Consider Qqq a car and the sectors are important pieces (Engine,transmission).
Here's AMEX:XLC
This is the sector of Meta, googl , and Nflx.
At resistance here ,
Outside daily bbands
NASDAQ:SMH
Home of Nvda,Tsm, and Avgo
The overbought at resistance setup is the same as XLC
AMEX:XLK
This is the biggest sector here
Home of Msft , aapl and nvda also
Same shit as the first 2
XLK may have room for 270 but that's it.
The last 2 times I saw a setup on Qqq where sector and index were all telling me the same thing was Dec 15th 2024 and Feb 14th 2025 ; Qqq corrected a few days later of both dates ..
The only sector that is an enigma to me right now is AMEX:XLY
The home of tsla and amzn
Weekly chart
This doesn't look bearish
It's not overbought like the others which is because amzn and tsla have lagged the other big tech names on this rally
Daily chart
Needs to clear 228 for Tsla to push higher we head back to 218
Could they correct the rest of tech and pump just tsla and or amzn? Absolutely. Propping up a couple and dumping the rest is called a plunge protection.. it won't stop qqq from bleeding but instead of a 12% correction, you'd end up with a 7-10%. Fawkery.
Let's see what happens with XLY
So let's zero in on Qqq
As far as trading goes today
Nq 4hour money flow indicator combine
with Qqq 15min money flow
combined
with us gapping out side bollingerband tells me do not chase the long here, there is a high chance we flush and close this gap today but I don't think we will break back below 578-579 before we tag 585 could come on PPI tomorrow..
So let's say today's resistance is 583, you'd short there with a 579-580 target.. be willing to add to your short up into 585. Cut losses above 585.. like I said , I don't think we break back below 577 until 585 is tagged so today may be a scalp short before the last leg up
The bottom of this Daily channel is around 568-570, with the 20ma right below it.. that will be your short term target once 585 is reached. The real correction starts below 566
2 big catalyst next week are Fed minutes Wed and Jackson hole which starts on the weekend
