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TLT short - warning signs from JapanTLT is making 20-day lows (red candles in the main chart), while continuing to make 20-week lows on a weekly chart (not shown). Meanwhile, looking at a proxy of net buying/selling (bottom panel), we have flipped from buying to selling. Looking at Japanese bond yields, 10-year JGBs (JP10Y) just broke out of tight range. This is the third attempt to trade above ~1.59% recently, which we saw earlier today. As Japan's is one of the world's leading overseas investors, this is an obvious warning sign for bonds globally. There is good risk/reward to short bonds here, with a stop-loss if the price closes at a 20-day high. If a 20-day high is made, the candles will change color from red to green. Both indicators (Breakout Trend and Buying/Selling Proxy) are available for free on TradingView.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by TiltFolio
TLT ShortTLT 1H Technical Analysis 📈 Outlook: The current setup suggests a bearish continuation scenario: A corrective move toward the 85.20–85.60 supply. Rejection from this area confirms continuation of the downtrend. Target: 83.20–83.60, where resting liquidity and untested demand reside. This sequence follows a classic liquidity sweep + supply mitigation + continuation pattern. Unless price breaks convincingly above 85.80, the bearish outlook remains intact. 🔼 Supply Zones (Bearish Liquidity Layers): Primary Zone: 85.20–85.60 This is the most immediate area of interest, aligning closely with the 50% equilibrium level of the last bearish impulse (~85.84). Price is likely to reject from here as it also coincides with a previously unmitigated supply block and market inefficiency. Stacked Supply Above: 86.40–88.00 Should price break the lower supply, these zones will come into play. However, the current structure suggests strong probability of rejection before reaching these levels. 🔽 Demand Zones (Target Areas): First Demand: 83.20–83.60 This is your marked initial downside target. It represents the next logical draw on liquidity and aligns with prior accumulation and support structure. It’s likely to act as a temporary reaction zone or the next entry point for accumulation. Deeper Demand Zone: 82.40–82.80 Marked by your secondary border, this range offers higher time-frame confluence and could act as the final sweep zone if the 83s fail to hold.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by ProSignalai
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Special Update : BUCKLE UPThis video is a special update for all TradingView members. I felt I needed to share this information and present the case that I believe poses the most significant risk to your financial future - and it's happening right now. Several weeks ago, I identified a very unique mirror setup in the SPY and kept an eye on how it was playing out. I needed to see confirmation of this setup before I could say it had any real likelihood of playing out as I expected. As of today, I'm suggesting that we now have excellent confirmation that the US/Global markets are about to enter a deep consolidation phase, lasting through the rest of 2025 and possibly into 2026 and early 2027. The interesting thing about this price pattern/structure is that it is almost exactly the same as the 2003-2007 structure, which I believe is the origin of this mirror setup. Almost down to the exact type of price bars/patterns I'm seeing. Many of you are already aware that I've been calling for a critical low cycle in the SPY on July 18 for many months. What you may not realize is that the pattern is based on Weekly price data. The July 18 cycle low can have a span of +/- 1-3 weeks related to when and how the cycle low pattern plays out. Watch this video. If you have any questions, message me or comment. I'm still here, doing my best to identify and unlock the secrets of price action and to help as many traders as I can. Price is the Ultimate Indicator. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
18
Is it time to short Tesla? If so TSLQ might be of interest.Tesla's ongoing turbulence is getting harder and harder to ignore even amongst some of the permabulls. Notably, Wedbush Securities' Dan Ives, a long-time Tesla bull, recently slashed his 12-month price target by a whopping 43% reduction noting concerns over CEO Elon Musk's political entanglements and the impact of new tariffs under President Trump's administration. If you think TESLA is likely to keep going down, you might want to consider NASDAQ:TSLQ a leveraged short position. TSLQ aims to deliver twice the inverse (-200%) of Tesla's daily performance. Its important though to understand that these types of leveraged trades are really only meant to be shorter term and if the stock starts to go up, then you will be losing at 2x the rate as well. Overtime, any wiggle up and down tends to work against you - even if the stock continues to go down. Definitely not trading advice, but something I was asked about today, and the current climate doesn't look overly positive for Tesla or Elon. TSLA article: finance.yahoo.com TSLQ info: www.tradretfs.com
NASDAQ:TSLQ
by zAngus
1
SPY at Key Support! Will It Hold or Break? TA for July 16🧨 GEX-Based Options Outlook: * GEX Sentiment: Negative gamma dominates (🟥 GEX 🔻), indicating elevated dealer hedging risk. * Put Wall & Support: * Major PUT Wall at 620 (⚠️ -38.47%) is being tested. * Additional downside liquidity lies below 618. * Call Resistance: * Upside resistance around 625–627, where both the 2nd CALL Wall and GEX7/8 sit. * IV/Flow Summary: * IVR 12.3 (low), PUTs 57.2% – bearish skew. * Option flow is protecting downside → less confidence in upside follow-through unless we reclaim 624.5+. * Conclusion: SPY is pinned around major support. A breakdown under 620 could accelerate downside into 616/614 range. 📉 1H Price Action & Trade Setup: * SPY formed a CHoCH breakdown and is retesting the wedge base. * Strong rejection from the 624.81–627.96 supply zone. * Price is now hugging trendline support and could trigger a bounce or further breakdown depending on liquidity sweep. Bullish Scenario: * ✅ Entry: Above 621.50 reclaim with confirmation. * 🎯 Targets: 624.50 → 626.80. * ⛔ Stop: 620 or below trendline. * ⚠️ Note: Only valid if SPY holds the CHoCH base and sweeps under 620 to trap bears. Bearish Scenario: * ❌ Entry: Clean break below 620, especially if it fails a retest. * 🎯 Targets: 618 → 615.50 → 612. * ⛔ Stop: Back above 622 with volume. 🎯 My Thoughts & Recommendation: SPY is balancing on a major PUT wall and SMC support trendline. If 620 fails, the path of least resistance is down toward 615 and potentially 612 due to the lack of supportive gamma levels below. A relief bounce is possible only if dealers regain control above 624. Keep stops tight, as this zone could snap quickly. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
3
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 16, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 16, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📈 Record Bullish Sentiment Signals Rotation Bank of America reports the most bullish fund-manager sentiment since February. With 81% expecting one or two Fed rate cuts this year, the group sees a rotation strategy replacing outright selling, with investors tipping toward sector shifts over wholesale exits ⚠️ Trump’s Fed Attacks Stir Policy Concerns President Trump’s public criticism of Fed Chair Powell—calling for steep rate cuts and threatening removal—has raised market alarms over the central bank’s independence. Analysts warn such interference could destabilize confidence in U.S. monetary policy 🏦 Banks Prepare for Earnings Surge Major U.S. banks are expected to report strong Q2 results this week. Enhanced trading and investment banking revenues are forecasted to offset economic uncertainties tied to tariffs 📡 Nvidia CEO to Visit Beijing Jensen Huang is set to hold a high-profile media briefing in Beijing on July 16, signaling continued emphasis on China for Nvidia despite U.S. export restrictions—potentially a key narrative for tech markets 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Wednesday, July 16: 8:30 AM ET – Producer Price Index (June) Gauges wholesale inflation pressures; June expected +0.2% MoM vs May’s +0.1% 9:15 AM ET – Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (June) Monitors factory and utilities output and usage rates—key for industrial-sector health Jensen Huang in Beijing Nvidia CEO to lead media briefing in Beijing—a potential market mover for chipmaking and AI sectors ⚠️ Disclaimer: This info is for educational purposes only—not financial advice. Consult a licensed professional before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #inflation #Fed #tech #industrial #PPI
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Massive Head & Shoulders + Death Cross on Big 7A massive head and shoulders pattern is forming on the Big 7 tech stocks (AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, GOOGL, AMZN, META, TSLA). After a strong rally, a death cross (50 EMA crossing below 200 EMA) has appeared, pointing to possible weakness ahead. Short-term concerns: right shoulder is forming now. If it holds, we could see a bounce. If the right shoulder fails, expect sharp drops and potential broader market reversals. Long-term view: markets could still move higher over time, but short-term risks are rising. This setup resembles the 1999-2000 period before the dot-com crash. The AI bubble could be nearing its peak, with current leaders losing strength and new players stepping in. Key to watch: neckline of the head and shoulders and how the market reacts to the death cross. disclaimer: this is not financial advice. for informational purposes only. trading involves risk and past patterns do not predict future results. always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making decisions.
CBOE:MAGSShort
by dotcom880
Consolidation taking place...VIX primed to spike soonBeen following the VIX for a while now, and it seems like the party will end pretty soon. Japan's yield is exploding and no one is talking about it (i.e., implications to US) and CNBC is celebrating small wins completely avoiding talking about bank's unrealized losses at historic levels and what impacts 90% of Americans, like tariffs that are only going to get worse. Keep an eye on the VIX as at its lows right now and creeping up, until it shoots up like a rocket, which it has done historically since 1993. Best of luck!
CBOE:UVIXLong
by antonini2002
Bottom in for bonds, flight to safety trade coming soon $100+If we look at the chart of TLT, you can see that we're forming a bottoming reversal pattern. We had a spike low down to $83 back to the middle of May and have now reclaimed the structure. I think that move marked the bottom. I think it's very likely that bonds spike in the near future, if they can make it over the $92 resistance level, then I think price will see continuation and likely break the pattern finding the first resistance at that $101 level. That said, I think this is the start of a larger move higher in bonds that will take us all the way up to the top resistance levels over the course of the next few years before the move is done and we start the long term trend in rates higher.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by benjihyam