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Tesla Euphoria to Capitulation and Back AgainOver the past 12 months, Tesla’s price action reads like a three-act drama: Euphoria (Nov ’24 – Dec ’24) Rampant Breakout: After a multi-month range, TSLA erupted from low-20s to a peak near $42, driven by record deliveries and renewed growth optimism. Blue Zone Strength: The blue-shaded sessions on the right highlight a powerful institutional bid, lifting price steadily with few pullbacks. Capitulation (Jan ’25 – Mar ’25) Profit Taking & Macro Headwinds: Q4 earnings misses, rising rates, and softer comps triggered a swift retreat. TSLA plunged from $40 to sub-$10 in roughly ten weeks—an 80% drawdown that shook even the most ardent bulls. Failed Bounce Attempts: Multiple red “S” markers at lower highs underscored sellers’ resolve, hammering out a vicious downtrend. Accumulation & Base Building (Mar ’25 – May ’25) Triple Bottom Formation: Notice the three “bottom” labels around $6.13 (the P0 pivot and prior yearly low). Each test showed shrinking volatility and thinner red candles, classic signs of selling exhaustion. Dynamic Support Holds: The turquoise dots hugging the lows trace TSLA’s dynamic falling-wedge support. By early April, price chopped sideways in a $6–$10 band, consolidating losses. 2. Technical Set-Up: A Coiled Spring As of today, TSLA has climbed back to $11.34, probing critical pivots: Near-term Resistance: Monday’s High (~$11.85) – the first hurdle for bulls. A decisive break above would flip short-term supply into demand. Dynamic Fib Resistance (~$10.35 & $9.96) – these falling-wedge levels have already been cleared, validating the nascent turn. Support Floors: Monday’s Low (~$10.35) – now a springboard for buyers. Base of the Wedge (~$6.13) – every retest here was met with bids, marking a reliable long-entry zone on deep pullbacks. Volume & Momentum: Recent green candles have come on elevated volume relative to March lows, suggesting fresh participation. The slope of higher lows in the turquoise dynamic support dots indicates improving momentum across daily and 5 m timeframes. 3. Market Sentiment & Catalysts Earnings & Guidance: With Tesla’s Q1 numbers due in the next two weeks, earnings season could be the spark that sends TSLA either flying through $12 or knocking it back to the wedge. Macro Backdrop: Rate Outlook: Any dovish pivot from the Fed could flood liquidity back into “growth-at-a-reasonable-price” names like TSLA. EV Adoption Narrative: New model announcements or manufacturing milestones (e.g., Cybertruck ramp) would reinforce the long thesis. 4. Strategic Takeaways Aggressive Players: A break and close above $11.85–$12.00 on daily charts could be used as a fresh long trigger, targeting $14 (year-open pivot) and then $18–$20 as institutional accumulation zones. Risk-Managed Entries: Pullback Buyers: A retrace to the former Monday low (~$10.35) is a lower-risk entry with a stop just under $9.95 (the next dynamic fib level). Option Plays: For defined risk, out-of-the-money calls near $12 expiring in 4–6 weeks may capture an earnings-driven surge. Defensive Stance: If price fails at $11.85 and closes back below $10.35, the pattern risks returning to the base at $8–$9, so profits should be booked or stops widened accordingly. 5. Conclusion: Coiled for a Move After the brutal drawdown earlier this year, Tesla’s chart now portrays a textbook falling-wedge resolution into a higher-low base, punctuated by multiple “bottom” labels and dynamic support tests. Approaching the $12 threshold, the stock is coiled like a spring: either it unleashes into a new leg up toward $14+ on strong participation, or it reverses into a tighter range, offering fresh long entries nearer $10. In short: TSLA’s journey from euphoria to despair and through disciplined accumulation has set the stage for its next directional verdict. Watch $11.85–$12.00—and manage risk around the former week’s pivots—to navigate what could be a decisive inflection in Tesla’s 2025 saga.
NASDAQ:TSLLLong
by SpecuVisionary
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 12–16, 2025 🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 12–16, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📊 Inflation and Retail Sales Data in Focus Investors are closely watching this week's release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday and Retail Sales data on Thursday. These reports will provide insight into inflation trends and consumer spending amid ongoing tariff concerns. 🤝 U.S.-China Trade Talks Resume High-level trade discussions between the U.S. and China are set to continue this week in Switzerland. The outcome of these talks could significantly impact global markets and investor sentiment. 💼 Key Corporate Earnings Reports Major companies including Walmart ( NYSE:WMT ), Cisco ( NASDAQ:CSCO ), Applied Materials ( NASDAQ:AMAT ), and Take-Two Interactive ( NASDAQ:TTWO ) are scheduled to report earnings this week. These reports will offer insights into consumer behavior and the tech sector's performance. 🏦 Federal Reserve Speeches Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on Thursday, with other Fed officials also making appearances throughout the week. Their comments will be analyzed for indications of future monetary policy directions. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Monday, May 12: No major economic data scheduled. 📅 Tuesday, May 13: 8:30 AM ET: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April 📅 Wednesday, May 14: 10:30 AM ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventory Report 📅 Thursday, May 15: 8:30 AM ET: Retail Sales for April 8:30 AM ET: Producer Price Index (PPI) for April 8:30 AM ET: Initial Jobless Claims 9:15 AM ET: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization 10:00 AM ET: Business Inventories 2:00 PM ET: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks 📅 Friday, May 16: 8:30 AM ET: Housing Starts and Building Permits for April 10:00 AM ET: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary) for May S&P Global ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
SPY My Opinion! SELL! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for SPY below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 564.32 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 539.96 Safe Stop Loss - 577.94 About Used Indicators: The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AMEX:SPYShort
by AnabelSignals
2
SPY weekly thoughts for May 12th - 16th. Trump Pump?What’s up traders — this is my first idea post here on TradingView, and I’m hyped to finally share something with the community. In this breakdown, I’ll be covering a few key areas I’m watching: 🟩 Support zones 📉 Resistance levels 🕯️ Weekly candle behaviour 🌍 Macro outlook and possible catalysts 📌 Important notes ⚠️ My current bias Let’s jump in: 🟩 Support Zones: Buyers are still showing up strong in that $505–$507 range(I highly doubt their orders will get filled lol). it had been a reliable bounce zone — we’ve seen repeated wicks rejecting that level and price snapping back VERY quickly. Above that, $550 has developed into a new area of support, and right now that’s my main level to watch. If that gives out, I expect we’ll head back down to test the $507 zone again. But for now, bulls are doing their job. 📉 Resistance SPY keeps getting stuck around $573–$575. That zone’s been tested a few times now, but buyers haven’t been able to push it through. Sellers are stepping in there almost every time. 🕯️ Weekly Candle Context That’s three straight weekly closes below resistance. Bulls get some momentum mid-week, but by Friday, sellers take over. It’s showing signs of a stall — like the market’s running out of gas near the top. 🌍 Macro Outlook – What Could Move Things There’s been some talk of softer trade discussions and early negotiations with China. If any of that turns into a real deal, it could be the spark SPY needs to finally break above resistance. But on the flip side — if Trump starts pushing new tariffs (even smaller ones), those moves tend to hold stocks back, especially in tech. So the big question is: Can SPY hit new highs if tech keeps cooling off and there’s pressure from new trade policy? That’s the tug-of-war right now — possible upside from improving global relations, but real downside risk from political decisions. 📌 Things I’m Watching: A weekly close above $575 would shift me to a bullish bias. If we lose $550, I’ll be watching closely to see how price behaves near $507. ⚠️ Current Bias Right now I’m FAIRLY neutral with a slight bullish lean, but very excited for this next weekly candle. The macro setup looks like it could support a move higher, but I’m staying decently cautious until we get a clear weekly breakout(+575) and close above resistance. Let me know what you think — and if you’re watching the same levels.
AMEX:SPYLong
by ThePlotThickens
11
QQQ The Target Is DOWN! SELL! My dear subscribers, QQQ looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details: The market is trading on 488.06 pivot level. Bias - Bearish My Stop Loss - 499.48 Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation. Target - 464.95 About Used Indicators: The average true range (ATR) plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by AnabelSignals
1
SPY (S&P500 ETF) - Testing Key Resistance Levels - Weekly ChartSPY (S&P500 ETF) is currently attempting an uptrend rally, bouncing up from the April 7th 2025 support level ($488) and weekly support trendline. The current resistance price level is $569 above, and the support price level below is $555. SPY price needs to remain and close above $522 in May 2025 to maintain the current uptrend rally. Resistance price targets above: $569, $578, $600, $610. Support price targets below: $555, $542, $533, $512. Tariff and trade deal news, corporate earnings, government law changes, and consumer sentiment will continue to affect the stock price action of SPY. Support price levels need to hold for an uptrend to continue in 2025.
AMEX:SPY
by NoFomoCharts
The Best Analysis in the World...You might be shocked by the accuracy of this analysis — so much so that you won’t even know what to do next. Because yes, you could be just one step away from becoming a millionaire... and missing that moment is painful. But don’t worry — I’m here, and I won’t let that happen. This legendary setup is called The Golden Lizard, and trust me, it’s not here to play games. Don’t underestimate it. Please, stay calm... and don’t faint. 💥🦎💰
AMEX:SPYLong
by soroushshahabi639
2
SPY QQQ / NQ/ES 9 Mayo 2025Liquidity Map Analysis – SPY/SPX/ES (May 9, 2025) Published by: JCAVGROUP on TradingView 🔍 General Context This chart is designed to identify liquidity zones, option walls, and high-probability price targets for SPY/SPX/ES based on SpotGamma levels and market structure. The analysis is intraday-focused using a 30-minute timeframe. 📊 Key Levels and Zones Level Type Value (ES) Notes Call Wall (Max 2) 575 Strong resistance Call Wall (Max 1) 572 Major liquidity wall, strong rejection area Call Wall (1) 570 Short-term resistance Put Wall (1) 565 Pivot level for bullish or bearish bias Put Wall (2) 562 Support zone Put Wall (3) 560 Major support / buyer interest Vol Trigger 567 Momentum pivot point RB Zone (Range Bound) 564.14–568 Decision zone, watch for breakout/rejection 1 Day Est Move ±11 pts Implied move for the day 📈 Scenario Projections 🔺 Bullish Scenarios: Break above 568 → Target 570 → Target 1 Long: 570 → 571.5 ES Continuation through 570 → Target 2 Long: 573.5–5740 ES Full extension above 572 Call Wall → Target 3 Long: 571.90–575.5 ES ⚠️ This is a high liquidity zone and potential reversal area (Possible Selling Zone) 🔻 Bearish Scenarios: Failure at RB-Head (568) or rejection from 570 → Revisit 565–564 zone Target 1 Short: 562 or 5660 ES Break below 562 Put Wall → Target 2 Short: 560 or 5635 ES 🟩 This overlaps with a Possible Buying Zone, look for reversals or accumulation 🧠 Tactical Insights Above 568: Bias shifts to bullish, especially on strong volume confirmation above 570. Between 564–568: Range-bound, chop zone; wait for structure to develop. Below 562: Bearish breakdown, potential sweep into liquidity at 560. 📌 Visual Key Zones 🔴 Red Zone (571.90–575.5) → Possible Selling Zone 🟡 Yellow Zone (564.14–568) → Decision / Neutral Zone 🟢 Green Zone (560–562) → Possible Buying Zone
NASDAQ:QQQ
by JCAVGROUP
Spy $550 This WeekUpdated SPY Weekly Forecast Range (as of $563) Scenario Projected Close Range Probability Bull Case $570 – $577 40% Base Case $558 – $566 45% Bear Case $545 – $555 15% 🔼 Bull Case Summary ($570–$577) Conditions: CPI data comes in cool (Thursday) PLTR, AMD, DIS all beat and guide higher Fed speakers lean dovish Mega caps like NVDA & MSFT fuel rotation higher SPY clears the psychological $565 resistance Fuel: Short gamma squeeze above $565 Call wall shift to $570/$575 Sector momentum in tech, financials, and discretionary ⚖️ Base Case Summary ($558–$566) Conditions: CPI is in-line Earnings are mixed (1 or 2 misses) Market digests prior rally, stays elevated No breakout — just holding range Behavior: SPY consolidates around 8-day EMA and VWAP Buyers hesitate near $565–$567 Light-volume pullbacks to $560 or $558 get bought 🔻 Bear Case Summary ($545–$555) Conditions: CPI comes in hot → rate cut expectations fall Key earnings disappoint (PLTR, AMD, DIS miss or lower guide) Yields spike, market pulls back fast SPY loses 8-day EMA, dips toward 21-day EMA near $548 Fuel: IV spike → volatility unwind Bond market pressure → liquidity stress Rotation into defensive sectors (XLU, XLP) 🔍 Supporting Indicators (Real-Time Drivers to Watch): CPI – Thursday, May 9 10-Year Yield reaction post-CPI Earnings releases (especially PLTR Monday + AMD Tuesday) Options flow around $565, $570 strikes Volatility Index (VIX): Holding under 14 = bullish, over 15 = caution
AMEX:SPYShort
by JoeWtrades
5
Be carefull, nice monthly candel, but dangerous daily and weeklyTo be honest, I have to say I'm a bit disappointed. If you look at the candle on a monthly chart, you'll see that it looks great. But on a daily chart, we didn't manage to break and close above the SMA 200. I thought the market would break above SMA200 with a big, powerful move and close above. Instead of going up, we moved down, then went back up straight away. It doesn't look like there's enough power to move higher. I'm not sure what's going to happen, but I'm most worried about the weekly chart. As you can see, there can be a H&S pattern in developing. I'd love to see a surprise if we close below this week's candle next week. As you can see, there's a big green candle followed by a candle with a long upper and lower shadow and a small body. It's pretty clear that there are issues to be addressed if we're going to move up the ranks. So, if the market closes below this week's low next week, I'll be short because of the H&S pattern.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by luckyzebra