SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-7 : Post FOMC UpdateThis video highlights a number of factors why I believe the markets are stalling and are likely to REVERT back to the 515-525 area on the SPY.
Without any real economic driving component, while tariffs and other concerns continue to play out, I believe the SPY will continue to search for Ultimate Support over the next 5-7+ months, then move into an upward reversion phase.
Part of what I'm trying to teach my followers is to try to understand how price operates in structures and phases.
Price only does two things: TRENDS or FLAGS
Within those phases, price structures (EPP, Cradle, and others) take over to determine how and why price may or may not attempt to make certain price moves.
Additionally, without any bias, or economic impetus (driver), price tends to REVERT.
In this video, I show you how to use the STDDEV channels to identify possible target areas for the different phases of market trend.
Ultimately, IMO, trading is about being able to see the price structure, phases, and path of least resistance (in terms of bias/expectations). This helps us position for the highest probability outcome (and hopefully for successful trades).
Remember, all of these techniques can be applied to intra-day charts the same way I'm applying them to Daily and Weekly charts.
Remember, price only does two things: TREND or FLAG.
Once you understand that, applying price structures/phases to price while it TRENDS or FLAGS helps you to gain a keen understanding of where price may target/move in the immediate future.
Hope this helps.
Get Some.
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QQQ - Consolidating and pushing $500 this weekI believe the QQQ are consolidating to push up. The typical 3 steps down and one step up after words. Its also bouncing off a possible upward channel wall. A lot of bearish sentiment but the market is going to do what its going to do. I can as easily go down to retest 465, however unlikely in my opinion. This is not financial advise, all trades are risks. Do your own research.
IWM: ShortRussell 2000 ETF | 15-Min Chart | May 8, 2025
🚨 0.5–0.618 Fib Retracement Completed
Price has tapped into a key Fibonacci confluence zone (0.5–0.618), overlapping with previous CHoCH and unmitigated supply. This zone has historically triggered distribution phases on lower timeframes.
🔻 Technical Setup:
Price rejected from 198.4–198.7 zone
CHoCH and EQH levels form a liquidity trap above
Targeting demand near 193.78 (Fib extension 1.382 + historical support)
📊 Macro Context:
US Q1 GDP: -0.3% (contraction)
Core Inflation: Still sticky at 2.6%
Jobs Market: Strong, 177K added in April
Fed Today: Likely no cut, but any hawkish Powell tone could trigger a sharp risk-off move, benefiting this short bias.
🎯 Trade Idea:
Bias: Bearish
Entry: 198.35–198.70 (current level)
TP1: 197.43
TP2: 193.78
Invalidation: Break & hold above 199.50
⚠️ Wait for Powell @ 2:30 PM ET before scaling in. Volatility will spike.
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FED DAY IS HERE! $qqq at MAJOR resistance. Today will be a tellQQQ is stuck under the 200sma and a supply zone. WE have used up a lot of the tarriff deals news flow. The market will be looking to uncle Jerome for direction. If he comes in dovish and says the inflation is tempered we could push through into the suction zone.
If he comes in hot and says the tariff war heating up inflation we could get a big pause on the rally. with the QQQ under so much supply this is a logical spot for Powell to dump on the market.
We have the 9ema under if we break under it will trigger a short for me. if we stay above its a leave alone unless we remount the 200sma on the daily chart.
SPY in Focus: Tactical Day Trading Amid a Bullish RecoveryAs of early May, SPY consolidates around $560–$570, testing former support-turned-resistance.
On the daily chart, the market is pausing after a rapid rally, with $610 as major resistance and $540–$485 as key support. The 1-hour chart reflects a solid uptrend with recent consolidation between $555–$568, while the 15-minute chart shows intraday weakness with critical support at $560.
Three trading strategies emerge: (1) Bullish breakout, buying above $564–$568 with targets up to $580;
(2) Bearish breakdown, shorting below $560 with downside to $545; and
(3) Range trading, buying/selling within $558–$568 using tight stops. Confirmation via volume and candlestick patterns (e.g., engulfing or hammer) is essential.
Short-term bias is bullish, but with caution—if SPY holds $560, it could retest $570 or break higher. A drop below $556 invalidates the bullish outlook.
Inflation Adjusted Market Valuation since 2007 max liquidityHere's a loose estimation (using basic compound interest over time delta) of what the market would be worth with adjusted inflation if liquidity remained constant since 2007. Inflation adjusted value estimated through the yearly growth % of the market adjusted for inflation and averaged with general inflation trends from 2000-2025 at a ~85% inflation, year by year avg 85/25 = ~3.4%.
(hard to get exact numbers so include a +-10% error at a 90% confidence interval)
What does this tell us? We are above peak value of 520, in consideration of the stimulus being applied over time in buy backs and inflating the market over the last 15+ years, we have a high probability chance that we are at peak investment liquidity and upward movement can be delayed for the next 5-10 years in the form of a major correction to market valuation.
1 minute ago
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Inf Est since 2007 using adjusted 6.7% year by year inflation
Peak Yr 2007 2015 2020 2022 2025
M.Val 162 213 340 475 613
Inf Est 0 272 376 428 520
Why does the M. Val eventually exceed the Inflation Estimated Value?
Consider the buy backs from stimulus that entered the market after GFC.
1) In no way will they max out on buy backs immediately
2) Buy backs over time guarantee consistent upward market price movement
3) That stimulation is not included in the Inf Est
a. The Inflation Est is simply the max value in 2007 and its inflated relation today
b. The Inflation Est is a control value that only shows existing liquidity in market
At the time of 2007 excluding buy back stimulus event
SPY/QQQ ES/NQ 7 Mayo 2025Key Levels & Interpretation
Zone Level Label Implication
🔴 488.93 20180 NQ Target Long 4 / Sell Zone Strong resistance / ideal exit for longs
🔴 487 20100 NQ Target Long 3 Key resistance level / high gamma impact
🟠 485 20020 NQ Target Long 2 / RB Head / Call Wall (2) Decision point – break or reject
🟡 484 19980 NQ Target Long 1 First major upside target
🟢 480 19800 NQ Put Wall / Gamma Zero Neutral pivot – potential long/short flip
🟢 478 19700 NQ Put Wall (2) / Buy Zone Strong support – long entries valid here
🔵 475 19600 NQ Target Short 2 / Put Wall (3) Aggressive short target or deep dip buy
📉 Annotated Trading Scenarios
✅ Bullish Scenario
Reversal from Buy Zone (478–475).
Breakout through 480 (Gamma Zero) confirms momentum.
Watch reactions at:
484 (first take profit zone),
485 (possible stall or breakout),
487–488.93 (sell/exit zone).
⚠️ Bearish Scenario
Rejection near 484–485,
Breakdown under 480 invalidates bullish bias,
Targets:
478 (short-term support),
477.11 (Target Short 1),
475 (Target Short 2 – strong support or last stop for bulls).
📌 Other Key Notes
Zero Gamma at 480: Neutral zone, expect volatility if price lingers here.
Volume Walls: High call/put activity at 487 (Call Wall) and 480/478 (Put Walls).
“Posible Zona de Compra/Venta” annotations show smart money areas – respect reactions here.
“Trade the reaction, not the prediction.” — especially around gamma inflection points.
Spy Game Plan for today If the market continues its bullish momentum, we could see a retest of the 200-day moving average around $570. This level will act as key resistance, and a breakout above could open the door for new highs. However, if Powell’s tone leans hawkish or the minutes reflect a more cautious stance on rate cuts, we could see AMEX:SPY crack below its current trendline. In that scenario, look for potential support and a bounce around the low $550s—specifically in the $552–$550 zone.
SPY Levels Heating Up! Is This Just a Cool-Off or a Pullback?🧊So here’s what I’m seeing on SPY after reviewing the daily, 1H, and options GEX flow. I like to keep it real — not overhyped, just what I think might actually matter if you're trading this week.
📉 Technical Setup (Daily & 1H View)
* We’ve been in this steady grind higher, breaking out of the downward channel.
* Price is stalling a bit near 558–563 zone — that’s a tough area, and it makes sense since it lines up with prior resistance.
* MACD on the daily is still bullish but starting to flatten, and the Stoch RSI looks like it wants to cool off from overbought.
* On the hourly, momentum is clearly slowing down — we’re seeing lower highs and weakening MACD. If 558 breaks, I’d expect some quick downside.
🧠 GEX (Gamma Exposure) Breakdown
* The Highest Negative GEX is parked at 560, which is huge. That’s where market makers flip from hedging to hunting.
* There’s a fat PUT wall at 560, and we’ve been dancing around it. So if bulls can’t hold this line, things could unwind fast.
* On the upside, CALL resistance is stacked at 562–563, and we just tapped into it.
* IV is sitting at 30.6 with IVx avg 25 → market’s a bit juiced, probably pricing in some chop or catalyst ahead.
🎯 Trade Scenarios I’m Watching
🐻 Bearish Setup (if price rejects 563 again):
* Entry: 561–562 rejection
* Target: 555–556 zone
* Stop: Close above 563.50
* This plays off the GEX flip and rejection at CALL resistance.
🐂 Bullish Setup (only if we reclaim 563 with volume):
* Entry: Break and hold above 563
* Target: 567, maybe even 572 if gamma squeezes kick in
* Stop: Drop back below 561
🧨 Options Play Ideas
* Looking short-dated? Consider a PUT debit spread like 562/557 for this week if momentum confirms.
* For bounce lovers: CALL debit 563/567 spread, but only if we break 563 and hold above.
* With IV a bit hot, spreads are safer than naked options to control risk.
Final Thoughts:
SPY’s sitting at a pivot. It’s either digesting gains before another push… or we’re about to see some hedging volatility flood in. I’m personally watching how it handles 560–563 range — everything hinges on that for me. No need to rush in. Let the chart tell you.
This is not financial advice. Just me sharing how I see the market and how I’d trade it based on what the data and charts are saying.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 7, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 7, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🏛️ Fed Decision Day Amid Tariff Pressures
The Federal Reserve concludes its two-day meeting today, with expectations to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.5%. Despite President Trump's calls for rate cuts, the Fed remains cautious due to inflationary risks from new tariffs and migration policies.
📈 U.S.-China Trade Talks Resume
U.S. stock futures rose overnight on news of upcoming high-level trade talks between the U.S. and China, marking the first discussions since the imposition of 145% tariffs on Chinese goods. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are set to meet with senior Chinese officials later this week.
🛢️ Oil Prices Rebound on Demand Hopes
Oil prices climbed as U.S. production declined and demand in Europe and China showed signs of recovery. Brent crude rose 0.6% to $62.52 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate increased 0.74% to $59.53 per barrel.
💼 Key Earnings Reports Ahead
Several major companies, including Uber ( NYSE:UBER ), Disney ( NYSE:DIS ), and Novo Nordisk ( NYSE:NVO ), are scheduled to report earnings today. Investors will be watching these reports for insights into corporate performance amid ongoing economic uncertainties.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Wednesday, May 7:
2:00 PM ET: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Announcement
2:30 PM ET: Fed Chair Jerome Powell Press Conference
3:00 PM ET: Consumer Credit Report (March)
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
NKE Pump to ~70The Pump & Dump King (PNDK) just announced they will be pumping and dumping
during press conference with Canadian PM Mark Carney.
The pump is happening Thursday or Friday.
Nike NKE sets up perfectly for a rally to ~70
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SPY (worst is over?)Excellent buy side volume this week following by one down gap fill. We are at resistance currently so I would expect a lot of chop before resumption up trend. Make sure you check which security is showing strength during the down days of the chop. They might become the future market leaders.
SPY Day Trade Plan for 05/06/2025SPY Day Trade Plan for 05/06/2025
📈 560.55 562.50
📉 556.64 554.69
Thanks to all my followers! Truly appreciate the support!
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*