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Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 14–18, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 14–18, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 ⚖️ Powell Faces ‘Epic’ Trade‑Inflation Dilemma Former Fed economists warn Chair Powell is navigating nearly unprecedented terrain: tariffs are pushing up prices even as the labor market cools. Striking a balance between inflation control and growth support remains a formidable challenge 📊 Tariff‑Driven Inflation May Peak This Week June’s CPI is expected to show a 0.3% month-on-month increase, potentially lifting core inflation to ~2.7%—its highest level in 18 months. These data will heavily influence the Fed’s decision-making process 🏦 Big Bank Earnings Kick Off Earnings season begins with JPMorgan ( NYSE:JPM ), Goldman Sachs ( NYSE:GS ), Wells Fargo ( NYSE:WFC ), and Citigroup ($C) reporting. Strong results could offset trade and inflation anxieties; expect volatility in financials 📈 Goldman Sees Broader S&P Rally Goldman Sachs projects the S&P 500 to climb roughly 11% to 6,900 by mid‑2026, underpinned by firm earnings and expected Fed rate cuts. But warns that breadth remains narrow, increasing downside risk without robust participation ⚠️ Summer Volatility Risk Lingers Deutsche Bank warns that summer’s low liquidity and the looming Aug 1 tariff re‑imposition deadline may spark sudden market turbulence—even amid bullish sentiment 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Monday, July 14 Quiet start—markets digest back-to-back CPI, tariffs, and clearing post‑earnings. 📅 Tuesday, July 15 8:30 AM ET – Consumer Price Index (June) Watch for potential tariff impact in CPI; core inflation data are crucial. 8:30 AM ET – Core CPI (June) 10:00 AM ET – Empire State Manufacturing Survey (July) Early view on Northeast factory trends. 📅 Wednesday, July 16 8:30 AM ET – Producer Price Index (June) Wholesale inflation signals to validate CPI trends. 10:00 AM ET – Housing Starts & Building Permits (June) 📅 Thursday, July 17 8:30 AM ET – Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims A gauge on labor-market resilience amid talks of cooling. 📅 Friday, July 18 10:00 AM ET – Federal Reserve Beige Book Release Fed’s regional economic snapshot ahead of next FOMC. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is for educational/informational use only—not financial advice. Consult a licensed professional before investing. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #tariffs #inflation #earnings #Fed #CPI #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
QQQ What Next? SELL! My dear followers, I analysed this chart on QQQ and concluded the following: The market is trading on 554.20 pivot level. Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation. Target - 540.50 Safe Stop Loss - 560.82 About Used Indicators: A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by AnabelSignals
1
SpyBig week here. Rarely do you get big banks and big tech earnings on the same week.. Jpm, Goldman sach, and JNJ are dow jones heavy weights. This is important because I think Dow will close that gap at 44,850 and most likely retest ATH at around 45,000. As long as dow closes above 44,200 Monday, they will do this move Now logically you have to ask yourself, If Dow jones moves 800pts or 2% what will spy do? Well unless Nasdaq gives it all up early in the week then Spy will grind higher.. NASDAQ:QQQ 2hour chart is mimicking June's price action Even similar bearish Divergence on RSI So will tech Roll over this week? TSM and NFLX both reporting.. Qqq 30min price action, as long as price holds above 548.50 I wouldn't short this at all As you can see with the yellow channel price will be range trading between 551-555. Over 558 and 560 comes.. below 548 and 544 comes. This is actionable trading, I know some of you want a bigger picture on the short side but until we break below the 20sma I really don't like going full bear at the beginning of earning season... Yes, alot of things are flashing red signaling a major correction is looming , for Example here's XLC. This is the sector of NASDAQ:NFLX and NASDAQ:META Here's the weekly chart and RSI Very bearish bigger picture here, I could easily see this sector and the big names inside it going back to April lows But then You have AMEX:XLY The sector of NASDAQ:AMZN and NASDAQ:TSLA Nothing is bearish Herr and as long as it holds 217 they are going to push this back to ATH. NASDAQ:AMZN chart is completely identical So let's say NFLX and Meta have down days similar to last Friday but Amzn and Tsla pumps then you will get a small pullback unless the chipsector dumps also 😉. Remember there's always a bull in the market, they'll just rotate into something less overbought.. Only time you really see majority selling off is when there is a catalyst (Carry trade, tariffs) or Seasonality (March, Sept).. So I'm bearish on Chips NASDAQ:SMH and I'm bearish on AMEX:XLC but you have to be selective.. I wouldn't short NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:AMZN NASDAQ:GOOGL NASDAQ:AAPL Those stocks will likely outperform this Quarter. As far as the banks earnings , even if they pop, I think this will be a sell the news event and this sector AMEX:XLF (Big banks) is headed for a massive correction The Small banks AMEX:KRE Have almost completed their V shape recovery and will most likely correct after this week Daily technicals are overbought similar to IWM but the weekly is where you see caution Top of weekly Bollingerband always leads to a major sell the following week AMEX:SPY 15min chart I'm bullish early in the week, I think they will buy the dip ahead of earnings so if they open up near Friday's low or the 15min 200sma they could buy it there, below 621 and they will go for the gap close at 620; that will be another dip buy opportunity . Stop loss 619.00 Below 619.00 and they have a gap left open at 614.84 to close. Stop loss 15min 200ma Trade Idea of the week is NASDAQ:GOOGL Bullish ascending triangle forming under 182.00 resistance.. Price may breakout this week 4hour chart Friday finished with a Shooting star so we could start the week with a pullback but I think googl will hold 177.00 support and that's a good entry for a long.. or wait for conformation which would be a break above 182.00.. So 177 or 182 is my entry Googl is only bearish below 172.00 or 200ma Personal opinion This administration Has promised 200 trade deals and have gotten only 3 so far. As we get closer and closer to August investors will get nervous and I think we will see another major sell! He's has kicked the tariff can down the road as far as it can go and still these countries are calling his bluff. Becareful because I think the next time trump won't fold
AMEX:SPY
by ContraryTrader
9
$SMH and $NVDA Dominance: Some more room to run for bothWith NASDAQ:NVDA and NASDAQ:SMH above their respective ATH the focus returns to the fact how far we can expect for both to outperform and make new highs. In this Blog we floated the idea of NASDAQ:NVDA dominance. This indicates the % of return / price movement in NASDAQ:SMH contributed by NASDAQ:NVDA as it is a cap weighted index. It captures the outperformance of the high momentum stocks like NASDAQ:NVDA and $AVGO. On May 12 I predicated that NASDAQ:NVDA will reach 170$ before end of summer. And we are very close to our price target. NASDAQ:NVDA : Full on Bull mode. 170 $ before end of Summer for NASDAQ:NVDA by RabishankarBiswal — TradingView On May 30 we also favoured NASDAQ:SMH over AMEX:HACK and said that the momentum will continue and NASDAQ:SMH will touch new ATH. And here we are with NASDAQ:SMH above 280$. NASDAQ:SMH vs AMEX:HACK : Recent good correlation with breakout potential for AMEX:HACK by RabishankarBiswal — TradingView Now the question comes , how far these 2 can go and the bigger question is will NASDAQ:NVDA claim its Dominance in NASDAQ:SMH ? As you can see in the chart below the NASDAQ:NVDA Dominace in NASDAQ:SMH peaked at 0.6 or 60% on Nov 11. Currently we are @ 57% and still below its ATH. My estimate is NASDAQ:NVDA will claim its Dominance and go to the highs of 65% before SMH also completes it highs in this upward slopping channel with 315$ as my price target on $SMH. Verdict: NVDA Dominance in NASDAQ:SMH can reach 65%. NASDAQ:SMH Target 315 $. NVDA Price target remains 170$ and above.
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by RabishankarBiswal
BITx -- Weekly Volatility SnapshotHello Bitcoin community 🤠👾🤑👾🤠 Good morning/Good afternoon, maybe goodnight to you pending where you are in the world! Nonetheless, I'm glad you found me because here we are going to look over our weekly historical volatility ranges on CBOE:BITX and assess where IV is in perspective to what's trending. Then we will talk targets within my custom adjusted implied weekly ranges. Entering the week, IV (76.86%) is projecting +17.74% more than what short-term trending markets are showing with HV10 (59.12%) holding a 'strength of IV' of only 76.91%. This is a price differential on the week of -$1.19. Our monthly values with HV21 (71.20%) are hinged slightly below IV, showing a 'strength of IV' slightly more at 92.64%. In my opinion looking towards this week, IV may be painting the bigger picture of price distribution upwards towards quarterly trends. It is expansive from past weeks and above short-term trending markets with a wider range and with IV percentile slowly creeping up. If the trend holds that started last week, my price target will be HV63 at $61.07 which draws confluence with the correction impulse wave top of $60.39 -- a price action to implied calculation difference of only +/-$0.69. Fantastic , right?!? This would take BTC approaching new ATHs again. If price action can find quarterly trends we will be seeing a 'strength of IV' of 108.44% -- only slight advantageous over IV premium. In the end, markets are unpredictably wild and we can only assess and reduce our risk using the tools provided. Always remember your ABCs and to hedge your bias! Come back next week as we recap how the weekly volatility unfolded. Cheers!
CBOE:BITXLong
by splitmyIVandmelt
How Much Risk Are You Really Taking? I get two common horror stories from new QS members: “I followed a few QS signals, nailed some wins… then bled it all back.” “My first couple signals lost, and my account was toast.” My first question to both groups is always the same: “How much risk did you assign to that trade?” ❌ Why Most Traders Dodge This Question Risk management isn’t sexy. Green arrows and slam‑dunk gains are fun to talk about. Stop‑losses and position sizing? Not so much. Gambling feels easier than math. Going “all‑in” gives you the casino rush. Calculating max drawdown does not. Accountability hurts. If the trade blows up, there’s no one to blame except the person who sized it. ⚔️ Trading = War (No, It’s Not “Fun”) Like I said in “What’s Your Catalyst?” — trading is financial warfare. Show up without armor (risk rules) and you’re the first casualty. In basketball you need defense before dunks. In war you need body armor before bullets. In trading you need risk management before any strategy. 📏 My Simple Rule Only risk what you’re prepared to watch burn—completely. If the idea of that money turning to ash makes you queasy, you’re oversized. Period. 🧠 Questions to Ask Before Every Trade Position size: How many dollars exactly can I lose and still fight tomorrow? Probability: Is this setup strong enough to justify that risk? Stop‑loss: Where is my hard exit? No “I’ll see how it feels.” Reward‑to‑risk: Is the upside worth at least 2–3× the downside? Confidence check: If I’m not 100 % cool watching this cash burn, why am I risking it? 🚀 Pair Your Edge with Protection AI and QS signals give you edge — a slightly better chance in a brutal game. But edge without risk control is like a sniper without body armor: lethal until one bullet hits. Next time you celebrate a hot streak or curse a quick wipe‑out, pause and ask: “How much risk did I really assign to this trade, and was it worth it?” If you can answer honestly and still sleep at night, proceed. If not, size down, armor up, and protect your capital first. Strong defense wins championships — and trading accounts. 🛡️💰
CBOE:UVXYEducation
by quantsignals
The Myth of Win RateOne of the most common questions I get from QS members: “What’s the win rate of the signal?” Sounds like a smart question. But it's often coming from the wrong mindset — the same mindset as a student cramming for a test, hoping for one perfect answer key that’ll give them a 90% score and an easy win. Let me break this down for you: 🧮 The Only Two Numbers That Matter in Trading There are only two math truths that actually grow your account: Win Rate – how often you’re right Win/Loss Ratio – how much you make when right vs. how much you lose when wrong Everyone obsesses over #1. Almost no one truly understands or applies #2 — and that’s the real killer. --- 🤔 So What’s the Ideal Setup? In a perfect world, you’d have: A high win rate (80–90%) AND a high win/loss ratio (make $3, lose $1) But guess what? This isn’t a perfect world — this is a war. See my earlier post: "What’s your catalyst?" --- ⚔️ Trading Is Like War (or Sports) In war, victory is rare and costly. In sports, scoring takes hard work, timing, and discipline. In trading: You win big when the odds are stacked in your favor You cut losses quickly when you’re on the wrong side That's the gold standard — but few do it. Even worse, many do the exact opposite: Take quick profits to “lock in a win” Let losers run hoping for a miracle Then they wonder why their account bleeds over time. --- 🎰 Vegas Was Built on 51% Win Rate Casinos don’t need to win every game. They just need: Slightly better than 50% edge Strict control over risk and payout That 1–2% edge? It built every billion-dollar casino on the Strip. Now think again: Why are you chasing a 90% win rate when even 55% + smart risk control can make you rich? --- 🧠 Profitability > Win Rate You don’t need to win all the time. You need to win big enough and lose small enough. Your goal should be: 3 steps forward, 1 step back. That’s the realistic rhythm of trading success. --- ✅ So Next Time You Ask About a Signal... Don’t just ask: “What’s the win rate?” Instead ask: “What’s the reward if I’m right?” “What’s the damage if I’m wrong?” “How do I size this trade so my wins outgrow my losses over time?” This is how real traders think. Not about perfection — but about probability, edge, and sustainability. --- 💬 TL;DR Win rate is just one piece. Your win/loss ratio and risk management matter more. Profitability > accuracy. The market doesn’t reward perfection. It rewards preparation, defense, and discipline. Keep playing smart, not perfect. And remember — it’s a long game. 🧠📈
NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by quantsignals
Select Your Trading Time There’s an old saying: “Plan your trade, and trade your plan.” But I want to add something even more important: “Pick your time to trade.” --- 💰 The Market Is Not Your ATM Everyone enters trading with one goal: make money. Some even think of the market as an ATM — pull the handle, cash comes out. But the truth is: ❌ The market doesn’t care about your goals ❌ It won’t move just because you need to make money today This is a brutal game. And you don’t control the clock. --- ⚠️ When You Force a Trade... Too many traders say: “I have to make money today.” “I need to hit $X this week.” “I just took a loss, I must come back now.” That kind of thinking leads to: Bad entries Overtrading Emotional decisions Big losses ❗ Trading success doesn’t come from forcing outcomes — it comes from waiting for the right moments. --- 🧠 What Happens on Low-Volatility Days Let’s take today as an example. SPY moved in a 2-point range all day. No momentum, no trend, just chop. Some traders: Ran one QS signal after another Forced trades just to feel busy Got chopped up by fast reversals Then blamed the signals But here’s the truth: AI or not , you can’t expect any long-volatility trade to work when the market is dead still. The only winners on days like today? Market makers and options sellers. --- ❓ Why Trade at All on a Day Like This? If the market isn’t offering opportunity, Why force it? Why chase trades? Why burn your energy? The smarter move is: Sit out Observe Wait for better setups Preserve your mental and financial capital --- 🔄 Recovery? Yes — But on Your Terms Some traders lose money and say: “I need to make it back today.” That’s emotional revenge trading. What if the market doesn’t give you a clean opportunity today? Are you still going to go all-in, out of frustration? ❌ That’s not a strategy. That’s gambling. --- 📍 QS Signals Are a Map — Not a Magic Button QS AI signals help you find opportunities — but even the best map won’t help if: You're in the wrong city (bad market environment) You’re rushing without checking road conditions (volatility, news, timing) Even with QS, you don’t have to trade every day, every hour. --- ✅ What You Should Do Be patient Respect market conditions Take a break on slow or tricky days Come back when the odds are in your favor --- 🧘‍♂️ Final Words You don’t have to win every day. You don’t have to trade every day. You don’t even have to be active to be successful. 🎯 Trade less. Trade smarter. Select your time wisely. That’s how real traders survive and thrive in this game.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by quantsignals
$ETHA: ETH ETF about to explode higher...For now, ETF buyers are down since inception, but that is about to change. The Trend Navigator algo is flashing a buy signal today, as weekly flashes a Time@Mode signal. (obligatory to mention that the Trend Navigator algo is up 30% ish in this chart in the same period) A lot of people are either sidelined or looking to exit the market right as it's about to trend up steadily for months it seems. Don't be like them and hodl. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:ETHALong
by IvanLabrie
Long REMX (Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF)hi traders, 1. The chart shows REMX has experienced a significant downtrend since late 2021/early 2022, reaching levels last seen around 2020. 2. Entry Strategy (Green Box): The idea is to enter long positions as the price approaches or bounces from this established support area, anticipating a reversal or a significant rebound. 3. Stop-Loss ($30): A stop-loss is crucial to limit potential losses if the support level fails and the price continues to decline, invalidating the bullish thesis. 4. Price Targets (Purple Arrows and Red Lines): Target 1 (First Purple Arrow & Red Line): The first target is around $98.01. This level acted as significant resistance/support in the past (around mid-2022 and early 2021). Target 2 (Second Purple Arrow & Red Line): The second, more ambitious target is around $124.26 to $123.08. This represents a major resistance level from the 2021-2022 peaks. These targets are based on previous price action, aiming to capture a substantial portion of a potential recovery. The two targets allow for a tiered profit-taking strategy. * Summary of the Trading Idea: This trading idea is a long-term bullish bet on REMX, based on the assumption that the ETF is currently near a significant historical support level and is due for a substantial rebound. The strategy involves accumulating positions in the identified entry zone, setting a stop-loss below the key support, and aiming for two distinct profit targets corresponding to prior resistance levels. The time horizon for this trade appears to be medium to long-term, potentially extending into 2026-2028,
AMEX:REMXLong
by vf_investment
SOXL Will FLY!Just look at the AD line: With its sharp V-shaped recovery, the A/D Line (middle area) shows that the recent price rise is being driven by significant capital inflows and strong buying interest. The Accumulation/Distribution Oscillator (lower panel) underlines this with an exceptionally high green bar, indicating massive buying pressure in the recent trading period. At the moment there are no obvious negative divergences between price and indicators. Rather, the indicators are signaling strong bullish momentum, which is supporting the current upswing. For an instrument as volatile as a leveraged ETF, this is a remarkable sign of the strength of the current move. I don't want to sound euphoric, but THIS is a BIG BUY!
AMEX:SOXLLong
by Ochlokrat
Rare Earth UpdateTo provide an update on why I went long Rare Earth. I noticed the after hours move up on MP materials, at 20% increase before market open which quickly became a 50% move when trading started. This particular ETF holds MP Material as a major holding and it hadn't moved much as it should have. I posted a trade idea on Lynas, which went up the following day. The TA on this chart suggests the move up may have plenty of room to the upside. This is a highly cyclical ETF, as expected from any mining related asset. There's periods of huge drawdowns followed by sharp moves to the upside. We have broken out of the downtrend, we have held the POC as support and bullish volume suggests the move is not a fakeout. Zooming out, I see a giant inverse head and shoulders pattern. You can also see the RSI downtrend has been broken. Not financial advice, congratulations to anyone who took the trade on this with me. I have moved my stop loss to break even, if price breaks below I will get stopped out with no loss. Not financial advice, do what's best for you.
AMEX:REMXLong
by NoFOMO_
2
IWM projected pathI have three rooms full of supercomputers and then a few laptops in a spare bathroom plus a refrigerator in my wife's cardboard box running simulations 24/7 about the projected path of the Russell. Based on their findings I have determined that our previous support is now the resistance. When we come into contact with this resistance we will begin to work our way back down to fill the gap before continuing up to achieve a new all time high. When we hit resistance I have prophesized that will go mostly sideways for a numbers of days before we drop down to fill the gap. Thank you. Praise the Lord.
AMEX:IWM
by Fraggle_Rock
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 11, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 11, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🏦 Strong Bank Earnings Amid Tariff Churn Next week’s Q2 forecasts point to robust earnings from U.S. banks—JPMorgan, Citi, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo—as trading and investment-banking revenue recover, offsetting uncertainties from ongoing tariffs 💬 Dimon Flags Fed Risk Pricing JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon cautioned that markets may be underestimating upside in interest rates. He sees a 40–50% probability of higher U.S. rates, driven by inflation from tariffs, migration, and fiscal deficits ⚖️ Tariff “Scattergun” Sparks Sector Disconnect Trump’s plans to levy up to 200% tariffs on pharma and 50% on copper triggered uneven market reactions—copper prices rose 30% in six months, while European drugmakers remain flat, highlighting divergent sector sensitivities 📉 Tech & Macro Still Bullish Despite policy turbulence, Nvidia climbed back above a $4 trillion valuation, and JPMorgan projects a $500 billion inflow into equities in H2—supporting gains even as broader macro pressures linger 📊 Key Data & Events 📅 Friday, July 11: (No major U.S. economic data scheduled) Markets will focus on bank earnings previews, tariff headlines, and the hold of the tech rally into a thin summer trading week. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #tariffs #banks #tech #Fed #investing
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao