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Opening (IRA): SPY July 18th 495 Short Put... for a 5.13 credit. Comments: Targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit. Max Profit: 5.13 ROC at Max as a Function of Strike Price: 1.04% Will generally look to roll up if the short put is in profit at 45 DTE or greater, add at intervals if I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on at the June 513's and July 495's, and/or consider a "window dressing" roll (i.e., a roll down to a strike that is paying about the same in credit) to milk the last drops out of the position.
AMEX:SPYLong
by NaughtyPines
4
Pre-Earnings Breakout in Financials?Financials could be attempting a breakout, two weeks before the sector kicks off earnings season. The first pattern on today’s chart of the SPDR Select Sector Financial ETF is the price level around $52. XLF stalled at that zone in February after peaking about 1 percent below it in November. February 28’s final price of $52.18 could be especially important because it represented the highest weekly close. The fund broke above it on Monday and remaining here could represent a potentially more significant breakout. Second is the narrow price range between mid-May and late June. (Notice the tightening Bollinger Band Width.) Could that period of price compression open the door to price expansion? Third, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) is above the 21-day EMA. MACD is also rising. Those signals may reflect short-term bullishness. Next, the steadily rising 200-day simple moving average may reflect long-term bullishness. Finally, the calendar may be a factor because Wells Fargo reports earnings on Monday, July 14. Citi, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and others follow later in the week. Standardized Performances for the ETF mentioned above: SPDR Select Sector Financial ETF (XLF) 1-year: +27.39% 5-years: +126.32% 10-year: +164.49% (As of June 30, 2025) Exchange Traded Funds ("ETFs") are subject to management fees and other expenses. Before making investment decisions, investors should carefully read information found in the prospectus or summary prospectus, if available, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Click here to find the prospectus. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
AMEX:XLF
by TradeStation
SPRIAL TURN MAJOR JULY 5to the 10th TOP 4 spiral and one FIBThe chart posted is the updated chary for SPY SPIRAL calendar TURN Notice f12 is a spiral from July 16th 2024 top F 10 is from 11/2024 DJI The SPY was 12/5 th TOP F8 is from Feb 19th Top They ALL have a focus point on JULY 5th to 10th 2025 it is also 89 days since the print low. I Am looking for a MAJOR World event into this date . This time I feel it will be something with JAPAN . As to the markets here The put/call is now at the same level as july 2023 top and july 2024 . I have had fib targets in cash sp 500 from 6181 to as high as 6331 we are now in the middle of the targets But Time still has 3 to 5 days .So if we close strong today I will be buying deep in the money puts once again . The QQQ have entered the min target 551/553 But I tend to think {HOPE] we can reach 562 plus or minus 1.5 to move to a full short . But now in cash BTW the SMH target 283/285 is also a target .for its TOP Bitcoin is now setup for the next TOP I just need a new high .Best of trades WAVETIMER
AMEX:SPY
by wavetimer
4
Long Trade Idea: SPY (S&P 500 ETF)!🧠 📅 Timeframe: 30-Minute 📈 Type: Long Position 📐 Setup: Tight consolidation breakout + bullish wedge pattern 📍 Trade Details: Entry: $620.39 (breakout from rising wedge) Stop Loss: ~$618.80 (below wedge support) Target 1: $622.34 (minor resistance) Target 2: $624.56 (major resistance zone) 🔎 Technical Breakdown: Price formed a tight rising wedge, squeezing under resistance Bullish breakout confirmed above consolidation Strong uptrend continuation — higher highs + higher lows SPY remains strong despite market hesitation 🎯 Risk/Reward Outlook: Risk: ~$1.59 Reward: Up to ~$4.17 RR > 2.5:1 — ideal structure for breakout traders 💬 Caption (for Social/Chart Post): “SPY breaks higher! 💥📈 Wedge breakout signals bullish momentum 🟢 Clean setup toward $624+ zone 🔓 Watch for continuation above $622.34!” #SPY #LongTrade #BreakoutSetup #S&P500 #ProfittoPath #ETFTrading
AMEX:SPYLong
by ProfittoPath
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 3, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 3, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📉 U.S. Private Payrolls Surround Weakness The ADP report showed a drop of 33,000 private-sector jobs in June, the first decline in over two years, reflecting businesses holding back hiring amid trade uncertainty. However, layoffs remain low, signaling no acute stress yet 📊 Markets Braced for NFP Caution Markets are wary ahead of this morning’s Non‑Farm Payroll (NFP) release—currently projected at +115,000 jobs and 4.3% unemployment—based on indications of labor-market cooling from weak ADP numbers 💵 Canadian Dollar Strengthens The loonie jumped 0.4% as investors adjust expectations for broader central-bank dovishness, driven by the weak U.S. jobs signals and optimism over a revived U.S.–Canada trade dialogue 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Thursday, July 3: 8:30 AM ET – Non‑Farm Payrolls (June): Forecast: +115,000; Previous: +139,000 (May). Watching for signs of sustained job-growth slowdown. 8:30 AM ET – Unemployment Rate: Forecast: 4.3%, up from 4.2% in May. A rise may increase odds of rate cuts. 8:30 AM ET – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM): Forecast: +0.3%; prior: +0.4%. Cooling wages would ease inflation pressures. 8:30 AM ET – Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims: Track week-to-week stability or worsening of labor-market conditions. 9:45 AM ET – Services PMI (June, flash): Monitor for signs of slowing in U.S. service-sector activity. 10:00 AM ET – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (June, flash): Forecast: 50.8. A reading below 50 suggests contraction in services. ⚠️ Disclaimer: For informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #jobs #Fed #labor #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
XLK ETF. TO WAR, OR NOT TO WAR — THAT IS THE QUESTION..US stock futures edged lower Wednesday evening ahead of Thursday’s market closure for Juneteenth. The moves came after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, with Chair Jerome Powell striking a cautious tone amid rising geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Powell reaffirmed a data-dependent approach, pointing to unclear inflation impacts from President Trump’s tariffs and the risk of stagflation. Fed projections now include two rate cuts in 2025, alongside downgraded growth expectations and higher inflation forecasts. Investor sentiment was further dampened by escalating tensions in the Middle East, as the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict stoked fears of deeper US involvement, while North Korea has recently launched 10 rockets from near capital Pyongyang. Futures for 7 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors ended the Prime Day holiday in the red, led by declines in energy, while technology outperformed. What is more important Technology sector is the one and only over 11 S&P 500 sectors that has printed recently new all the history high, just one - two days before Prime Day. What is XLK The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF AMEX:XLK ETF is respectively The Technology Select Sector ETF, that seeks to provide investment results correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the S&P 500 Technology Sector Index. The largest 5 holdings of this ETF are Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT , Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA , Apple NASDAQ:AAPL , Broadcom NASDAQ:AVGO and Oracle NYSE:ORCL , while all together they weight nearly 50 percent of the fund by market cap. Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT shares have experienced a significant upward trend in 2025, reaching new all-time highs and reflecting the company’s robust financial performance and strategic positioning in the technology sector. Record Highs and Price Momentum As of June 18, 2025, Microsoft’s stock closed at $480.24, marking its highest closing price ever. This price is just below its 52-week high of $481.00 and represents a 14% gain year-to-date, making Microsoft one of the best-performing stocks among the so-called “Magnificent Seven” tech giants in 2025. The stock’s average price over the past 52 weeks was $422.77, and its 52-week low was $344.79, which is 28.2% below the current level, highlighting the impressive rally over the past year. Short-Term and Long-Term Performance In the immediate term, Microsoft’s stock has shown steady gains. Over the past week, the share price rose by 2.03%, and over the past month, it increased by 6.36%. Looking at a broader horizon, the stock is up 6.79% over the last year, underscoring consistent investor confidence and the company’s ability to capitalize on growth opportunities. Drivers Behind the Rally Several factors have contributed to Microsoft’s recent share price surge: Artificial Intelligence Investment. Microsoft continues to invest heavily in AI infrastructure, with plans to spend $80 billion in fiscal 2025. This aggressive investment is seen as crucial to maintaining a competitive edge in cloud computing and AI services, areas that are driving much of the company’s growth. Cost Management. Despite the heavy spending on AI, Microsoft is also focused on controlling costs. The company is reportedly planning to trim thousands of jobs, particularly in sales, to offset rising expenses and protect profit margins. This follows earlier workforce reductions and reflects a broader trend among major tech firms to optimize operations amid escalating AI-related costs. Diversified Revenue Streams. Microsoft’s strong position in software, cloud computing, and AI, along with its subscription-based business model and consistent dividend growth, have bolstered investor sentiment. The company’s cloud platform Azure and productivity tools continue to show strong adoption across industries. Market and Analyst Sentiment Microsoft’s market capitalization recently reached $3.55 trillion, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 36.94, indicating high investor expectations for future growth. Analysts’ price targets for MSFT range from $432 to $700, suggesting a wide spectrum of views but generally positive long-term sentiment. Competitive and Operational Challenges Despite its strong performance, Microsoft faces competitive pressures, particularly from OpenAI, which has been offering discounted ChatGPT subscriptions, impacting Microsoft’s own AI products like Copilot. Additionally, negotiations with OpenAI over continued access to its technology have reportedly stalled, introducing some uncertainty into Microsoft’s AI strategy. Technical challenge and summary While Microsoft shares have recently hit record highs, driven by aggressive AI investment, disciplined cost management, and strong core business performance, it robustly helped to all the Technology sector came back to 6-month key resistance after nearly 40 percent recovery rally. While the market faces different challenges, we keep our strategic focus on next positions and further stock market development. -- Best wishes, @PandorraResearch Team 😎
AMEX:XLK
by PandorraResearch
1
Plata’s Bond Debut: A Bet on Mexico’s Digital Banking BoomMexico’s digital banking industry is gaining momentum, and Plata, a fast-emerging fintech player, is making waves with its debut bond issuance. Targeting $120 million (with the potential to scale up to $200 million) marks a turning point for a company transitioning from a credit card issuer to a full-fledged digital bank. For us, it’s a chance to tap into the growth of financial inclusion in Latin America’s second-largest economy. But with high rewards come risks we must note, as usual. So, here’s what we need to know about Plata and its latest move. From Credit Cards to Banking: Plata’s Evolution Plata started in 2023 as a credit card issuer, focusing on Mexico’s underbanked population—a segment that makes up roughly 60% of the country’s 130 million people. By December 2024, Plata secured a banking license from Mexican regulators, a game-changer that allows it to issue loans directly from its balance sheet and, starting in 2026, accept deposits upon meeting specific conditions. The change has undoubtedly expanded the company's scope of activity and its revenue potential. The company’s flagship product, the Plata Card, offers an average credit limit of $10,000 at interest rates exceeding 30%, targeting small loans averaging $200 per customer. With 1.5 million cardholders by mid-2025, Plata has built a diversified portfolio designed to be manageable for its target market. Backed by $450 million in equity financing, including a hefty 70% stake from Baring Fintech Private Equity Americas Fund, Plata also boasts a management team with roots from Tinkoff Bank—a fintech known for its innovative, customer-first approach. For a more convenient analogy, this business model is very similar to that used by the American bank Capital One NYSE:COF , allowing customers to manage their finances entirely through digital channels, from opening an account to investing, without visiting branches. Most services are digitally oriented. The Bond Offering: Terms and Appeal Plata’s bond issuance introduces a three-year, senior unsecured note featuring a callable structure, designed to stimulate its growth ambitions while offering investors a compelling opportunity. The offering begins at $120 million, with the flexibility to expand to $200 million, indicating confidence in its market reception. The bond carries a tenor of three years, with call options kicking in after 18 months at 106% of par value, gradually declining to 101% near maturity, signaling the issuer’s optimism about achieving early repayment as the business scales. Initially marketed with a 16% coupon rate, investor demand briefly pushed expectations toward 12%, though the final rate is anticipated to stabilize between 15% and 16%, paid semi-annually, which underlines the bond’s high yield potential, stemming from Mexico’s emerging market dynamics and Plata’s nascent stage. A put option further enhances its appeal, allowing bondholders to exit at 101% if a change of control occurs, providing a safety net against ownership uncertainties. While this structure attracts yield-hungry investors, liquidity poses a challenge, as the minimum trading lot of $125,000 and settlement through a Norwegian central securities depository—linked to Euroclear via Scandinavian banks—may restrict secondary market activity. Financial Snapshot: Growth at a Cost Plata’s financials reflect the classic fintech tradeoff: heavy upfront investment for long-term gains. The company has burned through $260 million of its $450 million equity raise over three years, a planned cash burn to fuel customer acquisition and technology development. Despite this, Plata’s loan portfolio yields a net contribution margin of around 2%, and it’s on track to break even by Q2 2028. Credit quality is improving, too. In June 2023, 33% of new cardholders defaulted after their first payment—a steep learning curve. By 2025, sharper underwriting has slashed non-performing loans (NPLs) to 15%, a manageable level given the 70% gross yield on its products. With an equity ratio projected at 22%, Plata’s capital cushion looks robust for a growth-stage bank. Mexico’s Underbanked Opportunity Mexico’s banking sector is ripe for disruption. Traditional banks have been slow to serve the underbanked, leaving room for digital players like Plata to step in. Leveraging an app-only platform and rapid credit card delivery, Plata follows successful footsteps of Tinkoff’s or the more well-known Capital One model, adapted for Mexico’s unique market. The company’s IT backbone, partly based in Cyprus at the upscale Trinity building, underscores its tech-driven approach. The company’s IT backbone, partly based in Cyprus at the upscale Trinity building, underscores its tech-driven approach. Competition is intensifying, with established banks and other fintechs vying for the same customers. Yet Plata’s early traction—1.5 million users in two years—and its focus on small, accessible loans give it an edge. If it can scale while keeping NPLs in check, Plata could capture a sizable slice of this underserved market. Risks to Watch The allure of high yields comes with significant uncertainties, given Plata’s short operational history and heavy reliance on rapid expansion. The company faces potential threats from Mexico’s economic volatility, where currency fluctuations and macroeconomic instability could erode profitability, alongside the risk of regulatory shifts in banking or fintech that might upend its business model. Credit risk remains a concern, as a surge in possible defaults could pressure its balance sheet despite recent improvements in loan performance, while the bond’s modest $120 million size and reliance on a Norwegian depository could deter some investors and limit liquidity in the secondary market. Nevertheless, Plata’s credibility is bolstered by its backers at Baring Fintech, a firm with a successful track record supporting companies like Kaspi NASDAQ:KSPI and Revolut, which lends a degree of reassurance. Additionally, the bond’s flexible structure, with call and put options, helps mitigate some of these risks, offering both the issuer and investors strategic adaptability in navigating this high-stakes venture. The Verdict: A High-Yield Play with Caveats Plata’s bond debut is a pretty well entry point into Mexico’s digital banking surge. A 15-16% yield is hard to ignore, especially with a clear path to profitability and strong equity support. For investors comfortable with emerging market risk, it’s an opportunity to support a fintech with it big digital potential in a market begging for innovation. But look first, then leap as some say. Thin liquidity and credit uncertainties mean this isn’t a casual investment. Those considering it should weigh the upside—growth in an underbanked hotspot—against the downside of a young bank in a volatile region. For the right portfolio, Plata’s bonds could be a calculated win. Just don’t expect a smooth ride.
CBOE:CEMBLong
by juliakhandoshko
10 Small-Cap Biotechs with Key Catalysts for 2025 July List________________________________________ 🔬 10 Small-Cap Biotechs with Key Catalysts for 2025 July List ________________________________________ 1. Allogene Therapeutics (NASDAQ: ALLO) • Catalyst: Phase 2 data for ALLO-501A (anti-CD19 CAR-T for large B-cell lymphoma) expected in H2 2025; potential pivotal data could lead to regulatory submission. • Highlights: “Off-the-shelf” allogeneic CAR-T approach could transform cell therapy; watch for manufacturing/scalability updates. ________________________________________ 2. Lixte Biotechnology (NASDAQ: LIXT) • Catalyst: Phase 2 combo trial of LB-100 (PP2A inhibitor) + immunotherapy in solid tumors, with key data expected in late 2025. • Highlights: If efficacy signals emerge, could prompt partnerships or additional trials. ________________________________________ 3. Iovance Biotherapeutics (NASDAQ: IOVA) • Catalyst: Commercial launch and sales uptake for AMTAGVI (lifileucel, first FDA-approved TIL therapy in advanced melanoma); upcoming label expansion studies in lung and cervical cancer. • Highlights: Investor focus on launch ramp, real-world data, and new trial initiations in 2025. ________________________________________ 4. RenBio (NASDAQ: RENB) • Catalyst: Phase 1/2 data for RB-100 (bispecific antibody platform in solid tumors) expected mid-to-late 2025. • Highlights: Pipeline progress and partnership announcements possible. ________________________________________ 5. IGM Biosciences (NASDAQ: IGMS) • Catalyst: Phase 2 data for IGM-2323 (CD20 x CD3 bispecific in non-Hodgkin lymphoma) expected early 2025; ongoing updates from IgM antibody platform. • Highlights: Investor interest in clinical safety, efficacy, and potential for big pharma tie-ups. ________________________________________ 6. Zura Bio (NASDAQ: ZURA) • Catalyst: Phase 2b/3 trial start and topline data for tibulizumab (IL-7Ra mAb for autoimmune diseases) expected late 2025. • Highlights: Focus on rare and orphan autoimmune indications. ________________________________________ 7. INmune Bio (NASDAQ: INMB) • Catalyst: Phase 2 Alzheimer’s data (XPro1595, targeting neuroinflammation) and oncology pipeline updates expected H1 2025. • Highlights: Any signal in Alzheimer’s is high-impact; monitoring for FDA guidance. ________________________________________ 8. Veru Inc (NASDAQ: VERU) • Catalyst: Phase 3 trial results for enobosarm (oral SARM) in advanced breast cancer expected 2025; also, COVID/sepsis drug updates. • Highlights: Regulatory clarity and partnership/M&A rumors are potential drivers. ________________________________________ 9. Century Therapeutics (NASDAQ: IPSC) • Catalyst: First-in-human data for iPSC-derived NK and CAR-T cell therapies, with updates expected at major meetings in 2025. • Highlights: Platform validation and early efficacy/safety signals. ________________________________________ 10. ProKidney (NASDAQ: PROK) • Catalyst: Phase 3 pivotal data for REACT (cell therapy for chronic kidney disease/diabetes) due late 2025. • Highlights: If positive, could become the first autologous cell therapy for kidney disease. ________________________________________ 🔎 How to Monitor These Catalysts • FDA submissions/meetings (ALLO, PROK, VERU) • Clinical trial readouts (LIXT, RENB, IGMS, ZURA, INMB, IPSC) • Commercial/launch data (IOVA) • Partnership/M&A activity (IGMS, VERU, RENB) ________________________________________ 📊 Summary Table Ticker Company Upcoming Catalyst/Event Timeframe ALLO Allogene Therapeutics Phase 2 LBCL CAR-T pivotal data H2 2025 LIXT Lixte Biotechnology LB-100 + immunotherapy Phase 2 data Late 2025 IOVA Iovance Biotherapeutics AMTAGVI launch data; label expansions Throughout 2025 RENB RenBio Bispecifics Phase 1/2 data Mid-to-late 2025 IGMS IGM Biosciences IGM-2323 Phase 2 data (lymphoma) Early 2025 ZURA Zura Bio Tibulizumab Phase 2b/3 topline data Late 2025 INMB INmune Bio Alzheimer’s/oncology trial updates H1 2025 VERU Veru Inc Enobosarm Phase 3 (breast cancer) 2025 IPSC Century Therapeutics First-in-human iPSC cell therapy data 2025 PROK ProKidney REACT Phase 3 (CKD) pivotal readout Late 2025 ________________________________________ ⚠️ Word of Caution Small-cap biotech stocks can be extremely volatile, especially around catalyst events (trial data, FDA decisions). Sharp price swings—both up and down—are common. Always conduct your own research and be aware of the risks.
NASDAQ:IBBLong
by ProjectSyndicate
31