Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for Tuesday, August 26, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for Tuesday, August 26, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
Post-Jackson Hole digestion 🏔️ → markets recalibrate. Traders continue parsing Powell’s keynote; the path of cuts into September remains the dominant driver for $SPY/$TLT/$DXY.
Durables in focus ✈️📦. Core capital goods orders (non-defense ex-air) are the cleanest read on business investment; softness fuels cut odds, strength = “higher-for-longer.”
Housing affordability squeeze 🏠. Case-Shiller and pending sales provide a 2-sided look at price momentum vs. turnover; AMEX:XHB and AMEX:XLY key tickers.
Consumer mood check 🛒😬. Conference Board Confidence frames labor market sentiment and forward spending intentions.
📊 Key Data Releases & Events (ET)
8:30 AM — Durable Goods Orders (Jul)
Consensus: ~-0.3% headline; core orders expected flat/slightly positive.
Why it matters: Big-ticket spending → business cycle pulse.
9:00 AM — S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Jun)
Prior: +6.0% y/y.
Why it matters: Tracks housing inflation pressure; feeds into consumer wealth effect.
10:00 AM — Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Aug)
Prior: 100.3.
Why it matters: Labor perceptions & spending intentions → AMEX:XLY sentiment.
10:00 AM — Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey (Aug)
Regional check on factory activity; complements durables.
10:00 AM — Pending Home Sales (Jul)
Prior: -4.1% m/m.
Why it matters: Leading indicator of housing turnover; affordability squeeze.
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #durablegoods #housing #consumerconfidence #Fed #DXY #TLT
