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XAU/USD 17 June 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025 Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday. Price is now trading within an established internal range. Intraday Expectation: Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200. Note: The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively. Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Following previous high, and printing of bearish CHoCH, price has pulled back to an M15 supply zone, where we are currently seeing a reaction. Therefore, I shall now confirm internal high. Price is now trading within an established internal range. The remainder of my analysis shall remain the same as analysis dated 13 June 2025, apart from target price. As per my analysis dated 22 May 2025 whereby I mentioned price can be seen to be reacting at discount of 50% EQ on H4 timeframe, therefore, it is a viable alternative that price could potentially print a bullish iBOS on M15 timeframe despite internal structure being bearish. Price has printed a bullish iBOS followed by a bearish CHoCH, which indicates, but does not confirm, bearish pullback phase initiation. I will however continue to monitor, with respect to depth of pullback. Intraday Expectation: Price to continue bearish, react at either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,451.375. Note: Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment. Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
GOLD BULLISH OUTLOOK📊 Gold Market Analysis – Bullish Outlook Developing In yesterday’s market, we observed gold take out a key lower liquidity in the 3370s range. This liquidity sweep typically indicates the clearing of weak hands and positions the market for a potential reversal or continuation of a larger trend. Following this move, gold has begun to establish a bullish trend stance, as the market structure shows signs of strength and renewed buying interest. The rejection of the 3370s level suggests that buyers are stepping in aggressively, potentially setting a solid foundation for an upward move. From a technical perspective, this positions gold for a potential climb toward the 3440s, which serves as a short- to mid-term target. If the bullish momentum continues to build — particularly if it’s supported by favorable macroeconomic data or weakening in the U.S. dollar — we could see price action surge above the 3440s, opening up further upside potential. This developing bullish scenario has been highlighted and discussed in the analysis. Traders and investors should monitor key support and resistance levels closely, as well as any macro developments that could reinforce or challenge this upward trajectory.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by elite_trader_1-
6.17 Gold Trend after the Big Drop6.17 Gold Trend after the Big Drop Yesterday, gold continued to fall after rising, and the bulls lacked effective momentum to fight back. During the US trading session, the geopolitical risk aversion sentiment temporarily eased and accelerated the break, making it more difficult to rise in the short term. In addition to the current decline in oil prices and gold prices, the conflict between Iran and Israel may end with one side kneeling down and surrendering. If this happens, the current gold price will continue to fall. The current technical side shows that the hourly moving average tends to flatten, and yesterday's low of 3383 has become a key support level. The opening rebound touched the 3403 line and then fell under pressure again, proving that this area is a range of fluctuations between long and short watersheds. If it cannot stand above 3400 before the opening of the US market, the bears will rely on the moving average to launch a new round of offensives, with the lower targets of 3375 and 3360. If there is no good news at present, it is recommended to rebound high short strategy. Thank you for your attention, I hope my analysis can help you.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by EmilyShared256111
Fed Rate Decision May Trigger a Decline in Gold PricesDespite heightened tensions in the Middle East providing safe-haven support, gold failed to break through the 3450–3455 resistance zone today and instead pulled back to the 3400–3386 support area. This decline was mainly driven by two factors: Iran expressed willingness to resume nuclear talks, easing geopolitical tensions and weakening safe-haven demand. Growing expectations that the Fed will keep rates unchanged this week strengthened the DXY, reducing gold's appeal. That said, inflation concerns persist, offering medium-term support to gold. On the technical front, the 3378–3340 consolidation zone may serve as secondary support, while stronger trend support lies in the 3310–3289 range—a level that may only be tested under extreme bearish conditions. For now, the primary support to watch is 3386–3373, with short-term rebound resistance around 3400–3420. Trading Suggestion: Ahead of the Fed’s rate decision tomorrow, consider buying on dips, as today’s decline may lead to a technical rebound. Then reassess the market’s response to key support and resistance levels to determine further action.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Arthur3017
Markets rally as missiles fly | how long can risk be ignored? Markets may be underpricing Israel and Iran risk. Despite continued fighting—including high-impact strikes and rising casualties—global equities moved higher to start the week. U.S. indices led the advance, with the Nasdaq gaining 1.5%, followed by the S&P 500 and Dow. Earlier in the session, European and Asian markets also closed higher, with Germany’s DAX up 0.8% and Japan’s Nikkei rising 1.3%. Now Asian markets are set to open for the second trading day of the week. Tensions escalated further on Monday as Israel launched drone strikes on Iran’s state-run IRINN television headquarters in Tehran, interrupting a live broadcast. Additional Israeli attacks hit the South Pars gas field. In retaliation, Iran launched a fresh wave of missile attacks into Israel, killing at least five people.
ASX24:AP1!
by BlackBull_Markets
Adjusted down 3385 at the beginning of the week⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION: Gold prices (XAU/USD) climbed toward $3,445 during the early Asian session on Monday, marking their highest level in over a month as mounting tensions in the Middle East and growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut bolstered demand for safe-haven assets. Despite stronger-than-expected US economic data on Friday, investors remained focused on geopolitical risks. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index for June jumped to 60.5, well above the consensus forecast of 53.5 and May’s reading of 52.2. However, markets largely shrugged off the data. Instead, attention turned to the escalating conflict in the Middle East, where Israel’s recent strike on Iran has intensified fears of broader regional instability. In response, Iranian authorities warned they would “respond firmly to any adventurism,” reinforcing gold’s appeal amid global uncertainty. ⭐️Personal comments NOVA: At the beginning of the week, gold prices adjusted slightly down, returning to the liquidity zone of 3385, before continuing the uptrend. ⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE: 🔥SELL GOLD zone: 3462- 3464 SL 3469 TP1: $3450 TP2: $3440 TP3: $3430 🔥BUY GOLD zone: $3390-$3388 SL $3383 TP1: $3400 TP2: $3410 TP3: $3422 ⭐️Technical analysis: Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order. ⭐️NOTE: Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well - take the number of lots that match your capital - Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account - Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Nova-Scalper
4
Gold Technical & Fundamental Outlook for Next WeekIn this video, I break down the recent surge in gold prices, what drove the momentum, including rising tensions between Israel and Iran, and the impact of weaker U.S. inflation data that’s pushing Fed rate cut expectations. Gold is now sitting just below the all-time high of around $3,500. With major U.S. economic events like Retail Sales and the Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision coming up, this is a key moment for us to prepare. 💥 Will we see a breakout above resistance, or is a healthy dip on the cards before the next move? I’ll walk you through the key levels, the market psychology, and how I’m planning my trades this week. 💡 Make sure to like, comment, and subscribe for more weekly gold and forex market insights. Disclaimer: Based on experience and what I see on the charts, this is my take. It’s not financial advice—always do your research and consult a licensed advisor before trading. #GoldAnalysis #XAUUSD #GoldPrice #ForexTrading #MarketOutlook #GoldForecast #TechnicalAnalysis #FundamentalAnalysis #FOMC #FedRateDecision #RetailSales #SafeHaven #GoldBreakout #TradingStrategy #ForexMentor
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSD
by darcsherry
XAUUSD bullish move possible.This chart represents a technical analysis of Gold Spot (XAU/USD) on the 30-minute timeframe. Here's a concise breakdown of the key points: 🔹 Structure & Key Levels: Liquidity Sweep: Price initially swept the liquidity above the recent highs, triggering stop-losses of early sellers or weak buyers. Support Zone: Marked around the 3410–3415 range, where price has shown rejection and stability. Prime Zone for Long Position: Below support, around 3400–3405, this area is marked as an ideal entry for long trades based on strong bullish reactions in the past. 🔸 Possible Scenarios: Bullish Reaction from Support: Price may respect the current support zone and begin an upward move towards the resistance area around 3450. Deeper Pullback into Prime Zone: If support breaks, price could dip into the prime long entry zone before reversing upwards. ✅ Conclusion: The chart suggests a buy (long) setup is likely, especially from the support or prime zone, targeting the previous highs near 3450. Risk management would be important if the price breaks below 3390.96 (red zone), which could invalidate the long setup.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by mia211wic9
Nasdaq Leading Equities HigherThe equity markets are seeing higher prices today with the Nasdaq leading the way higher trading up near 2.5% on the day while the S&P and Russell both traded over 1% as well. There was steep selling pressure in equities to end the week last Friday due to additional tensions in the Middle East, and the markets are seeing a strong rebound today, especially on the technology front. While the equities were strong today, Crude Oil had the opposite effect, with a strong push higher on Friday and strong selling pressure on the session today trading down near 2.5%. Looking ahead for the week, the big ticket item will be the Fed Meeting and interest rate decision on Wednesday the 18th, where the market is pricing in another pause on interest rates. Looking at the CME Fed Watch Tool, it is pricing in the first rate cut of the year to come in September at a 56% probability, which has continued to get pushed back later into the year with all of the uncertainty and volatility in the market. Traders will be more concerned with Fed Chair Powell’s remarks after the decision about the future plans of the Fed for the remainder of the year. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/ *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by CME_Group
Gold June 17, 2025As of today, the market continues to grapple with elevated U.S. debt issuance concerns, stubborn inflation pressures, and shifts in global demand for Treasuries. The newly surfaced economic editorial emphasizes a core macro concern: the United States' soaring public debt, now pushing toward $29 trillion in outstanding Treasuries, equivalent to roughly 95% of GDP. The issuance has notably skewed toward long-duration instruments, with the Treasury borrowing heavier through notes and bonds, particularly with $1.8 trillion in deficit projected in 2024 alone. This surge in long-term supply places upward pressure on yields — especially in the absence of strong foreign demand, which has been in steady decline. In the backdrop, recent performance in U.S. equity sectors reveals a pivot toward value and inflation-sensitive segments. Energy (XLE) has outperformed on both a 1D (+1.63%) and YTD basis (+9.11%), signaling real-asset rotation. Communications (XLC +1.72%) and Technology (XLK +1.62%) show strength, likely reflecting a rebound from oversold levels. Financials (XLF), however, remain volatile, with capital continuing to favor sectors like Industrials (XLI +0.65%) and Materials (XLB +0.85%) as proxies for infrastructure and dollar hedging. Real Estate (XLRE +0.87%) is showing a temporary bounce, but remains a laggard over the longer term due to yield sensitivity. Factor performance is confirming this rotation narrative. IPOs (+1.2%), spin-offs (+0.3%), and buybacks (+0.3%) are leading the qualitative factors, while style preferences are leaning toward growth and small-cap recovery, albeit from deeply underperforming levels YTD. Momentum and low-volatility factors are currently lagging. On a size-style basis, Mid-Cap Growth and Small-Cap Growth are recovering modestly, but the broader landscape suggests market participants are still defensive and selectively rotating. The fixed income landscape remains under stress. U.S. Treasury ETF performance continues to reflect pressure at the longer end. The 20Y (TLT) and 30Y durations have lost between -0.77% to -1.03% over the latest session, signaling reluctance from institutional buyers to absorb long-end supply without higher compensation. Across the curve, U.S. yields remain elevated, with the 2Y at 3.958%, 10Y at 4.428%, and 30Y at 4.933%. Notably, international yields remain divergent — Japan's 30Y yield has reached 2.335%, while the U.K. 30Y sits at 5.276%, reflecting inflation persistence in developed Europe. Meanwhile, the credit complex is firming in high-grade corners. ETFs like LQD (+0.36%) and BLKN (+0.34%) are gaining, while high-yield names (HYG: flat) and convertibles (-0.01%) remain flat or down. Preferred stock and floating rate paper are being held as rate-insulated yield vehicles. International credit is mixed — EMLC (Local EM Bonds) is positive (+0.11%), while USD-based emerging debt (EMB) is flat. Commodities are providing solid macro signals. Brent crude is up +1.73%, WTI +1.67%, and natural gas +0.58%, highlighting a renewed inflation hedge dynamic. Gold (XAUUSD) is slightly down at $3,382.06 (-0.04%), but remains near breakout levels with YTD performance near +29%. Silver and copper continue to hold recent gains, while agriculture is mixed: Corn (-2.14%) and Sugar (-1.16%) are under pressure, while Soybeans, Wheat, and Live Cattle are in mild recovery. On the global equities side, South Korea, Brazil, and India lead EM flows, buoyed by rising commodity prices and a modestly weaker USD. Brazil (EWZ) is up 1.8% YTD and climbing, South Korea (EWY) is at +1.3%, and India (EPI) continues to trend higher. Developed markets (France, Germany, U.K.) are soft, while Canada (+26.9% YTD) remains a notable outperformer, aided by energy and resource exports. In the U.S., SPY is up 0.95% on the day and +12.45% YTD. In terms of actionable positioning: gold remains a buy on dips as long as real yields stay capped and auction demand remains cautious. U.S. long-end bonds are to be avoided or shorted on rallies given increasing supply and muted demand. Energy and materials sectors continue to offer inflation protection, while financials and REITs should be traded tactically around auction and CPI prints. Equity allocations should lean toward value/momentum hybrids with capital discipline and dividend backing, while growth/multiple expansion names should be watched closely for signs of overextension. All in all, market behavior is currently being dictated by a blend of inflation expectations, sovereign credit concerns (especially U.S. debt overhang), and rotation into defensively pro-cyclical sectors. With the Treasury supply pipeline growing and buyers rotating away from long bonds, the next key market catalyst will likely emerge from either a weak bond auction or a sharp reacceleration in core inflation. Until then, portfolios should be tactically balanced, yield-aware, and commodity-hedged.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Buranku
Crude oil continues to decline - latest market trend analysisThe international oil market is currently experiencing a classic upward cycle of "geopolitical risk premium". In the short term, oil prices will be highly sensitive to any news regarding the security of the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil has continued its volatile upward trend in the short term, surging to test the price near $74. The moving average system is bullishly aligned with oil prices, and the objective short-term trend direction remains upward. In early trading, oil prices hit a new high near $75.30, but then surged and fell, closing with a bearish real body K-line. The short-term momentum still favors the bulls, and it is expected that the intraday trend of crude oil will continue to maintain a high-level volatile upward rhythm. you are currently struggling with losses，or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow,You have the option to join our VIP program. I will assist you and provide you with accurate trading signals, enabling you to navigate the financial markets with greater confidence and potentially achieve optimal trading results. Trading Strategy: buy@68.5.0-69.5 TP:73.0-74.0
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by Ashbur
S&P 500 | Short Setup | into Resistance | (June 16, 2025)ES (S&P 500) | Short Setup | Pump into Resistance | (June 16, 2025) 1️⃣ Short Insight Summary: The S&P 500 (ES) pumped nearly 2% today, pushing into major resistance and approaching all-time highs. Now I’m watching for signs of exhaustion and a potential reversal toward key value levels. 2️⃣ Trade Parameters: Bias: Short Entry: Watching for rejection around 6152–6166 Stop Loss: Just above the all-time high or intraday spike TP1: Previous month’s value area high TP2: Mid-channel zone (aligned with Fibonacci confluence) Partial Exits: Consider exiting partially if momentum stalls at key zones 3️⃣ Key Notes: Price is currently breaking out of a power channel. On the 30-minute chart, several limit orders suggest selling interest near this resistance. A reversal here could send ES back into the value range. Also watching ETH, SOL, and other majors for correlation, especially with ongoing geopolitical tensions like news out of Iran. 4️⃣ Optional Follow-up: I’ll keep monitoring for clear reversal signals. If we see sharp rejection with high volume, I’ll post a follow-up. Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research. This content may include enhancements made using AI.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Risk_Adj_Return
Conditions For A Pullback In The NASDAQ 100 Are PresentAll the conditions for a reversal in the NASDAQ 100 appear to be in place, but just because these conditions are present doesn’t mean a reversal must occur. The most obvious condition is the presence of a rising wedge, which formed over the past month and broke on Friday. Whether this pattern entirely unfolds remains to be seen, but there is supporting evidence suggesting it may. Momentum, as measured by the Relative Strength Index, has clearly been trending lower since peaking on May 19, even as the price of the NASDAQ 100 has continued to rise—a classic bearish divergence. Over the same period, we’ve observed the NASDAQ rising on decreasing levels of volume—another characteristic of a rising wedge pattern. Then, on Friday, the index broke below the lower boundary of the wedge. The wedge measures approximately 7% from its bottom to the top, suggesting that if the pattern fully plays out, the NASDAQ could decline back to around 20,350. It is also worth noting that there is a gap on the chart at 20,150, which could potentially be filled during such a pullback. However, that doesn’t mean a decline will be straightforward, because, for now at least, the NASDAQ has found support at the 20-day moving average at 21,514. The NASDAQ will therefore need to break through this strong support level for a deeper decline to occur. In fact, the NASDAQ has not traded below its 20-day moving average since April 23. While all the conditions for a break from the NASDAQ’s rising wedge are present and appear on the verge of unfolding, the market still has much to prove before the bearish scenario can fully materialize. Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management. Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.
CMCMARKETS:NDAQ100M2025
by cmcmarkets
XAUUSD – Swing Trade and Trend FollowingXAUUSD – Swing Trade and Trend Following Gold prices have been moving sideways, forming a consolidation range, and recently broke out to the upside last week. Currently, the price is pulling back to retest the bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG). If it can bounce from the 3400 support level, the next target would be the Range Volatile Week High around 3500. However, if the FVG fails to hold, the price may drop to the next support levels at 3350 and 3300. These are critical supports that should not be broken, as they also align with the ascending trendline (Up Trend Line). That said, this move is seen as a pullback for a potential continuation to the upside. Strategy: Buy the dip Wait for a reversal candlestick at the key support zones. The bullish outlook would be invalidated if the price breaks below 3250.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CoachGoii_SuperTrader