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USOIL Will Go Higher From Support! Buy! Take a look at our analysis for USOIL. Time Frame: 2h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 67.337. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 69.433 level soon. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
FX:USOILLong
by SignalProvider
1
Toward $3,500? Gold Faces Key Policy DecisionsGold is currently trading around $3,438 and continues to show positive momentum. After a week focused on inflation data, the gold market is now shifting its attention to interest rate decisions and policy guidance from major central banks. The week begins with the Empire State Manufacturing Index, a key indicator of economic activity in the New York region. Following that, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its monetary policy decision, and investors are closely watching to see whether the BoJ will continue normalizing its interest rates. Next comes U.S. retail sales data for May — a crucial gauge of consumer spending, which remains the backbone of the U.S. economy. Any signs of weakness in consumer activity could increase expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. However, the main focus remains the upcoming Fed meeting. While markets widely expect rates to be held steady, investors are awaiting clear signals from Chair Jerome Powell regarding the path and timing of potential rate cuts ahead. According to Kitco’s weekly gold survey, professional analysts remain optimistic about gold’s outlook, while retail investors are showing more caution. With central bank decisions approaching and geopolitical tensions lingering, investors need to stay alert. Risks such as rising social unrest in the U.S., escalating conflicts in the Middle East, and ongoing de-dollarization trends are all fueling demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Given expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady, gold maintains its defensive appeal. In my view, the precious metal may soon retest its highs near $3,500, as its role as a global safe haven becomes even more pronounced amid mounting uncertainty.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Edward_TradingFX
1
How to position gold in the week of the Federal Reserve’s decisiAs last week came to a close, further geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed market risk aversion to its highest level in nearly two months. This round of rising prices was driven by multiple factors. Among them, the weak inflation data released by the United States last week further strengthened the market's expectations for the Fed's loose monetary policy, thereby increasing the attractiveness of gold assets. In the short term, gold prices are expected to continue to be supported by risk aversion on Monday. In addition, the market this week needs to focus on the impact of the Fed's interest rate decision and Chairman Powell's speech on gold prices. Everyone should pay close attention to the price fluctuations that may be caused by the Fed's policy trends. It is particularly important to note that US President Trump plans to attend the G7 summit in Canada from June 15 to 17. His policy statements during the summit may also have an important impact on the gold market. Investors are advised to keep an eye on it. Technically, the daily level reminds us to focus on the key resistance range of 3455-3460: if this area fails to break through effectively, the price may face a technical correction; if it breaks through, it may open up further upward space. The 4-hour period chart analysis shows that the gold price maintains a unilateral upward trend, the Bollinger Band channel continues to expand, and the moving average system maintains a complete long arrangement. Two major support levels need to be monitored this week: 3420 constitutes a short-term long-short watershed, and if this position is maintained, the price will maintain its strong characteristics; 3410-3405 is a key trend support level. If it is not effectively broken, the long structure will continue. Operation strategy: Gold recommends buying long positions near 3420-3415, stop loss at 3407, and target 3440-3460
OANDA:XAUUSD
by AgnesGreen
Oil Rebounds to $59 as US Inventories Drop – Reversal Ahead?After recent declines, crude oil futures (CL1!) staged a modest recovery during Thursday’s session, trading near $59.10 per barrel. The rebound comes as US crude inventories unexpectedly dropped, easing concerns about oversupply and providing a short-term lift to prices. Key Drivers Behind the Rebound US Inventory Drawdown – The latest EIA report showed a decline in crude stockpiles, signaling stronger demand and helping prices stabilize. Technical Support Holds Firm – The bounce aligns with a critical daily demand zone, which previously acted as a strong support level on the weekly chart. Market Sentiment Shifts – While retail traders remain bearish, commercial traders (often considered "smart money") are increasing long positions, hinting at a potential trend reversal. Traders should watch for follow-through buying to confirm whether this is a short-term correction or the start of a larger reversal. Bottom Line: Oil’s rebound is fueled by fundamentals (lower inventories) and technicals (strong demand zone). With commercial traders betting on higher prices, the stage may be set for a bullish reversal—if buyers sustain momentum. ✅ Please share your thoughts about CL1! in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by FOREXN1
2
Today's key gold price range: 3400-3450Today's key gold price range: 3400-3450 Today's gold price opened high and rose, eventually reaching around 3450, but it did not stay at the high level for too long and then fell back. Based on the current fluctuations, we draw the following conclusions: 1: The market reaction is not as intense as imagined. 2: However, the reliability of the channel pressure at the macro level is more certain: Super pressure: 3450 3: Next, the reliability of the support around 3400-3410 will be confirmed again 4: The gold price fluctuation range is maintained at: 3400-3450 range fluctuation At present, as the gold price successfully stands above the 3400 mark, the market focus has shifted to whether the gold price will fall back and adjust. From the intraday trend, gold opened high in the morning, briefly broke through last week's high, and then fell back quickly. In the short term, the 3415-3410 area has become the most important support. This area is not only the low point before the opening of the US stock market last Friday, but also the key line of defense for the long and short battles in the short term. Before this area is effectively broken, the possibility of gold price rebound can be given priority; 1: Once the price falls below 3410, the 3400-3405 area should be focused on. This range is the key point for bullish breakthrough. If it can be held, the bullish idea can still be maintained; 2: If it unfortunately falls below, it means that the short-selling force is strengthened and the market may turn to the short side. In the future, we can further pay attention to the 3385-3375 and 3365-3355 areas. It is expected that these two points will become new support levels to accumulate strength for subsequent rises. 3: In terms of resistance, the upper 3450-3455 area constitutes strong resistance during the day. If there is no new positive news stimulation, it will be difficult for gold prices to break through this area in the short term. 4: In the long run, if the geopolitical situation between Israel and Iran further deteriorates and gets out of control, the market risk aversion will continue to rise, and gold bulls are expected to make another effort to break through the current high and gradually look to the 3470-3475 area, and then challenge the 3492 line and launch an impact on the new high of 3500. The current Asian session shows a trend of opening high and closing low. Whether this trend is a prelude to a negative decline or a shock correction to accumulate momentum for subsequent rise, the trend during the European session will become the key basis for judgment. Fundamentals: On June 16, as June 2025 deepens, the global financial market is ushering in a critical week. The Federal Reserve will announce its latest monetary policy decision on Wednesday (June 18), which will not only affect the future direction of the US economy, but also have a profound impact on global asset prices, the trend of the US dollar and investor sentiment. Last Friday, Israel's military strike on Iran and the retaliatory missile attacks it triggered put pressure on global markets. This incident has added new variables to the market, which is already full of uncertainty. This week, the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, retail sales data and geopolitical situation will become the three core factors affecting the global market. The Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged, but its economic forecasts and future interest rate cuts will directly affect the market's judgment on the trend of the US dollar. If the Fed sends a dovish signal, the dollar may be under pressure in the short term, but geopolitical risks and safe-haven demand may provide support for it. On the contrary, if the Fed emphasizes inflation risks, the dollar may strengthen, but this may put pressure on US stocks and global risk assets.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Isla_Suri
The latest gold operation strategyTechnically, the daily level reminds us to focus on the key resistance range of 3455-3460: if this area fails to break through effectively, the price may face a technical correction; if it breaks through, it may open up further upward space. The 4-hour period chart analysis shows that the gold price maintains a unilateral upward trend, the Bollinger Band channel continues to expand, and the moving average system maintains a complete long arrangement. Two major support levels need to be monitored this week: 3420 constitutes a short-term long-short watershed, and if this position is maintained, the price will maintain its strong characteristics; 3410-3405 is a key trend support level. If it is not effectively broken, the long structure will continue. Operation strategy: 1. It is recommended to buy gold near 3420-3415, stop loss at 3407, and target 3440-3460
OANDA:XAUUSD
by RodneyBridges
Excellent last week / more Profits aheadAs discussed throughout my Friday’s session commentary: “ My position: Gold is Trading on Bullish extension due Middle East crisis escalation. I am looking at my calculated my re-Buy zones to Buy every dip on Gold and continue Scalping (Buy orders only) towards #3,452.80 benchmark potential extension. However if Gold closes the week below #3,400.80 benchmark, Gold will continue ranging and I will alter my perspective (less likely). I have engaged multiple re-Buy Scalp orders on #3,412.80 Bottom and closed them on #3,420.80 and engaged Swing order on #3,423.80 which was closed on #3,4335.80 which finalized last week in excellent way. Technical analysis: Gold has now completed the Daily chart’s Triangle peak (local High’s) and thus I am expecting a new Bullish direction starting early week’s phase towards #3,452.80 psychological benchmark and #3,500.80 benchmark in extension (needless to mention, fueled by renewed Middle East crisis escalation as an catalyst). Personally I believe it will be a big one on strong Bull Volume once Buying accumulation is done (happening now). Hourly 4 chart is extending strongly Golden Cross formation and points to an Bullish Short to Medium-term Buying sustainability. A green closing on today's session Daily chart’s candle points to Bullish direction / upwards motion in succession. Personally I believe that only if Selling benchmark gets invalidated and Sellers make a break-out to the downside (now at #3,400.80) does the trend resumes its previous Bearish bias. This is total Bullish trend and total Bullish domination.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by goldenBear88
Excellent last week / more Profits aheadAs discussed throughout my Friday’s session commentary: “ My position: Gold is Trading on Bullish extension due Middle East crisis escalation. I am looking at my calculated my re-Buy zones to Buy every dip on Gold and continue Scalping (Buy orders only) towards #3,452.80 benchmark potential extension. However if Gold closes the week below #3,400.80 benchmark, Gold will continue ranging and I will alter my perspective (less likely). I have engaged multiple re-Buy Scalp orders on #3,412.80 Bottom and closed them on #3,420.80 and engaged Swing order on #3,423.80 which was closed on #3,4335.80 which finalized last week in excellent way. Technical analysis: Gold has now completed the Daily chart’s Triangle peak (local High’s) and thus I am expecting a new Bullish direction starting early week’s phase towards #3,452.80 psychological benchmark and #3,500.80 benchmark in extension (needless to mention, fueled by renewed Middle East crisis escalation as an catalyst). Personally I believe it will be a big one on strong Bull Volume once Buying accumulation is done (happening now). Hourly 4 chart is extending strongly Golden Cross formation and points to an Bullish Short to Medium-term Buying sustainability. A green closing on today's session Daily chart’s candle points to Bullish direction / upwards motion in succession. Personally I believe that only if Selling benchmark gets invalidated and Sellers make a break-out to the downside (now at #3,400.80) does the trend resumes its previous Bearish bias. This is total Bullish trend and total Bullish domination.
TVC:GOLDLong
by goldenBear88
Gold Regains Bullish MomentumGold Regains Bullish Momentum Gold price started a fresh surge above the $3,375 resistance level. Important Takeaways for Gold Price Analysis Today - Gold price started a fresh surge and traded above $3,420 against the US Dollar. - A key bullish trend line is forming with support at $3,415 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen. Gold Price Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price formed a base near the $3,300 zone. The price started a steady increase above the $3,350 and $3,375 resistance levels. There was a decent move above the 50-hour simple moving average and $3,400. The bulls pushed the price above the $3,420 resistance zone. A high was formed near $3,450 and the price is now consolidating gains. On the downside, immediate support is near the $3,415 level and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $3,301 swing low to the $3,451 high. Besides, there is a key bullish trend line forming with support at $3,415. The next major support sits at $3,375 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $3,301 swing low to the $3,451 high. A downside break below the $3,375 support might send the price toward the $3,335 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $3,300 support zone. Immediate resistance is near the $3,450 level. The next major resistance is near the $3,460 level. An upside break above the $3,460 resistance could send Gold price toward $3,480. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $3,500 level. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by FXOpen
Buy on dips and seize rising opportunitiesGold prices are rising strongly. Technically, multiple supports are formed in various periodic charts. Short-term sideways trading in the hourly chart is a normal adjustment. If the support of 3420 is maintained, the upward trend will continue. If it falls below, we need to be alert to the risk of trend reversal. The current geopolitical risks and risk aversion demand provide medium- and long-term support for gold. The main strategy for the day should be to buy on dips, and focus on the key watershed of 3420. Long orders can be arranged when it falls back to this level. It is expected to accelerate upward after breaking through. Overall, the bullish trend of gold has not changed. Gold recommendation: long orders can be arranged when the price falls back to 3425-3420. Stop loss 3413. Target 3472. Exit notification if the market changes
OANDA:XAUUSD
by RodneyBridges
XAU/USD Chart Analysis Following Israel-Iran StrikesXAU/USD Chart Analysis Following Israel-Iran Strikes In 2025, the price of gold continues to form a long-term upward trend, highlighted by the black line. The red line previously acted as resistance, resulting in the formation of a contracting triangle on the XAU/USD chart – a typical sign of market equilibrium. However, this red line was breached (as indicated by the arrow) amid news of the exchange of strikes between Israel and Iran. In response, gold price movements have more clearly outlined the rising blue channel, which began to take shape in the second half of May. Over the weekend, the strikes continued, and on Monday morning, trading opened with a modest bullish gap. This indicates that geopolitical risk concerns are helping to keep gold prices anchored above the red line. What could happen to the price of gold next? Much will depend on how the situation in the Middle East develops. Should the exchange of strikes between Iran and Israel subside and official statements offer hope for de-escalation, a pullback from the upper boundary of the blue channel is likely. If such a scenario plays out, technical analysts may focus on the support zone around $3,390–3,400 on the XAU/USD chart, formed by: → the psychological level of $3,400; → the red line, which previously acted as resistance; → the median of the blue channel. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by FXOpen
1
GOLD 45MIN GOLD ,LONDON SESSION reporting on gold price movement shows cool off from Friday rally while keeping bias bullish. the Asians open on sell from 3500 ALTH (BREAK OF STRUCTURE AT 3451-3450) ,when buyers returns today we have used that level as supply roof for 16th june 2025) and that level have held buyers and took out over 400pips and could do more from that bearish fall. but 3393-3400 will be watched by London gold traders who will weigh the risk on that demand floor ,if they accept it, we win on that level, if they reject it, we still win because we sell on break of demand floor to target 3375-3370 floor 3375-3370 will be London last hope before we head into newyork time where we will experience extreme volatility in trading.
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
Oil (WTI) – Geo-Political Concerns Drive SentimentA quickly escalating conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Iran has seen Oil (WTI) volatility increase dramatically as the focus for traders has shifted overnight from worries about an on-going lack of demand due to a slowing global economy over to major supply concerns moving forward from this oil rich region. This shift has seen Oil trade from lows of 60.17 on May 30th, to an early Monday high of 76.31, as weekend attacks by Israel on Iran's energy infrastructure introduced more uncertainty at the start of this new trading week regarding Israel's future strategy in this conflict. Prices have since settled down and moved back towards 72.80 (0830 BST) at time of writing but looking forward traders may need to balance the potential for further escalation/duration of this conflict against extra Oil production/supply from OPEC+ and the US. Also important for Oil prices across the week could be the outcome of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Interest Rate Decision (Wed 1900 BST) and Press Conference (Wed 1930 BST). No change to interest rates is expected, but the updates from Fed policymakers to their inflation and interest rate expectations for the rest of 2025 could have a major impact on risk sentiment, the dollar and anticipated Oil demand. Technical Update: Utilising Bollinger Bands A rise in tensions in the Middle East last week prompted a sharp acceleration higher in the price of Oil. This saw price volatility increase, reflected by the widening upper and lower Bollinger bands and prices trading to levels last seen in late January 2025, as the chart below shows. Traders will now likely be wondering if this type of price strength can continue, or if prices can enter a correction phase, even possibly a more extended period of price weakness. Much will clearly depend on future market sentiment and price trends, and on any easing or escalation in geo-political tensions. However, with this in mind let's consider what may be the relevant support and resistance levels . Potential Resistance Levels: As the chart shows below, interestingly, last weeks price strength stalled against 75.99, which is equal to the February 3rd session high and with a setback in price developing from it so far today, this might be viewed by some as a potential first resistance. As such, while not a guarantee of further price strength, closing breaks above 75.99 may be a sign of continued upside momentum towards 81.01, which is the January 15th price high and a potential next resistance focus for traders. Potential Support Levels: After such a strong advance in price, it might be harder to establish support levels, although, Fibonacci retracement levels on the recent May 30th to June 16th upside move in price, might prove useful. These retracement levels are highlighted on the chart below. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the price strength stands at 70.12 and this might prove to be a possible first support focus, if price weakness is seen over coming days. Closing breaks below 70.12, if seen, may then lead to declines towards 66.32, the deeper 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDE
by Pepperstone
GOLD GOLD ,LONDON SESSION reporting on gold price movement shows cool off from Friday rally while keeping bias bullish. the Asians open on sell from 3500 ALTH (BREAK OF STRUCTURE AT 3451-3450) ,when buyers returns today we have used that level as supply roof for 16th june 2025) and that level have held buyers and took out over 400pips and could do more from that bearish fall. but 3393-3400 will be watched by London gold traders who will weigh the risk on that demand floor ,if they accept it, we win on that level, if they reject it, we still win because we sell on break of demand floor to target 3375-3370 floor 3375-3370 will be London last hope before we head into newyork time where we will experience extreme volatility in trading.
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
2
Gold Price Analysis June 16There is not much surprise when the price gap up appeared on Monday morning there is no barrier that can stop the price of gold from increasing towards ATH. Gold has a slight correction in Tokyo session after the price gap up touched the round resistance zone 3450. The correction may extend to 3413 in European session. This is a BUY zone with the expectation that Gold will regain the ATH hook. If broken, there will be some Scalping buy zones but the risk is quite high so to be safe, wait for 3398. 3463 acts as temporary resistance for a reaction period before Gold returns to the all-time high. Maybe before 3490 there will be another price reaction before reaching the top.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
Oil Extends Rally as Israel-Iran Conflict Stokes Supply FearsBrent jumps 5.5 %, bullion hits fresh records, but analysts still see $65 crude by Q4 if key shipping lanes stay open The crude-oil market loves nothing more than a geopolitical headline, and the one that flashed across terminals this past weekend was a whopper: escalating hostilities between Israel and Iran. Within minutes of the first wire stories, Brent crude vaulted 5.5 % to an intraday high of $76.02 a barrel—its largest single-session pop since Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022—before giving back part of the gain to settle just under $76. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traced a similar arc, peaking at $74.11 and closing fractionally lower. At the same time, investors stampeded into traditional havens. COMEX gold pierced $2,450 an ounce for the first time, while silver sprinted above $33—blowing past the decade-old high set during the meme-metal frenzy of 2021. The twin moves in energy and precious metals underscore how fragile risk sentiment has become even as global demand growth, OPEC discipline, and U.S. shale resilience point to a more balanced physical market later this year. Below we dissect the drivers of crude’s latest surge, explore the scenarios that could push prices back toward—or away from—the $65 handle by the fourth quarter, and explain why bullion refuses to loosen its grip on record territory. ________________________________________ 1. What Sparked the Spike? 1. Tit-for-tat escalation. Reports of Israel striking Iran-linked assets in Syria and Iran responding with drone attacks near the Golan Heights raised fears of a direct Israel-Iran confrontation—a worst-case scenario that could spill into the Strait of Hormuz and threaten 20 % of global seaborne oil. 2. Thin pre-holiday liquidity. Monday volume was 30 % below the 20-day average with several Asian markets closed, exaggerating price swings and triggering momentum-chasing algos. 3. Options market gamma squeeze. Dealers short upside calls scrambled to hedge as spot pierced $75, accelerating the melt-up. Open interest in $80 Brent calls expiring in June ballooned to 45,000 contracts—four times the 3-month norm. ________________________________________ 2. How Real Is the Supply Risk? While the headlines are chilling, physical flows remain intact for now: • Strait of Hormuz: No tankers have been impeded, insurance premia have widened only 25 ¢ per barrel—well below the $3 spike seen after the 2019 Abqaiq attack in Saudi Arabia. • Iraqi-Turkish Pipeline: Still shuttered for unrelated legal reasons; volumes have been offline since March 2023 and are therefore “priced in.” • Suez Canal / SUMED: Egyptian authorities report normal operations. In short, the rally is risk premia, not actual barrels lost. That distinction matters because premia tend to deflate quickly once tension plateaus, as the market witnessed in October 2023 after Hamas’s initial assault on Israel. ________________________________________ 3. Fundamentals Point to Softer Prices by Autumn Four forces could push Brent back into the $65–68 corridor by Q4 2025 if the geopolitical situation stabilizes: Force Current Status Q3–Q4 Outlook OPEC+ Spare Capacity ~5.5 mbpd, most in Saudi/UAE Ability to add 1–2 mbpd if prices spike U.S. Shale Growth 13.3 mbpd, record high +0.6 mbpd y/y, breakeven $47–55 Refinery Maintenance Peak spring turnarounds remove 1.5 mbpd demand Units restart by July, easing crude tightness Global Demand +1.2 mbpd y/y (IEA) Slows to +0.8 mbpd on OECD weakness Add seasonal gasoline demand ebbing after August, and the supply-demand balance tilts looser just as futures curves roll into Q1 2026 deliveries—a period typically beset by refinery slowdowns and holiday travel lulls. ________________________________________ 4. Scenario Analysis: Three Paths for Brent 1. Escalation (20 % probability) • Direct Israeli strike on Iranian territory → Tehran targets Hormuz traffic • 3 mbpd disrupted for one month • Brent overshoots to $100+, backwardation widens above $10 • Biden releases 90 mb from the SPR; OPEC signals emergency meeting 2. Containment (60 % probability) • Hostilities remain proxy-based in Syria/Lebanon; shipping unscathed • Risk premium bleeds off; Brent drifts to $70–72 by July • By Q4 oversupply emerges; prices test $65 3. Detente (20 % probability) • U.S.-mediated cease-fire; hostages exchanged • Iran de-escalates to focus on reviving JCPOA talks • Risk premium collapses; Brent revisits mid-$60s by August and low-$60s into winter ________________________________________ 5. Why Gold and Silver Are On Fire The precious-metals rally is less about oil and more about real yields and central-bank buying: • Real 10-year U.S. yield sits at 1.05 %, down from 1.55 % in February, boosting gold’s carry cost competitiveness. • PBoC & EM central banks added a net 23 tonnes in April—the 17th straight month of net purchases. • ETF inflows turned positive for the first time in nine months, adding 14 tonnes last week. Silver benefits from the same macro tailwinds plus industrial demand (solar panel capacity is growing 45 % y/y). A tight COMEX inventory cover ratio—registered stocks equal to just 1.4 months of offtake—amplifies price sensitivity. ________________________________________ 6. Cross-Asset Implications 1. Equities: Energy stocks (XLE) outperformed the S&P 500 by 3 % intraday but could retrace if crude fizzles. Miners (GDX, SILJ) may enjoy more durable momentum given new-high psychology. 2. FX: Petro-currencies CAD and NOK rallied 0.4 % vs. USD; safe-haven CHF gained 0.3 %. JPY failed to catch a bid, reflecting carry-trade dominance. 3. Rates: U.S. 2-year yields slipped 6 bp as Fed cut odds edged up on stagflation fears, but the move lacked conviction. ________________________________________ 7. What Could Invalidate the Bearish Q4 Call? • OPEC+ Discipline Frays: If Saudi Arabia tires of single-handedly absorbing cuts and opens the taps, prices could undershoot $60—but Riyadh’s fiscal breakeven (~$82) makes this unlikely. • U.S. Election Politics: A new White House may re-impose harsher sanctions on Iran or ease drilling restrictions, tilting balances either way. • Extreme Weather: An intense Atlantic hurricane season could knock Gulf of Mexico output offline, squeezing physical supply just as refineries demand more feedstock. ________________________________________ 8. Trading and Hedging Playbook Asset Bias Vehicles Key Levels Brent Crude Fade rallies toward $80; target $68 by Oct ICE futures, Jul $70 puts Resistance $78.80 / Support $71.30 WTI Similar to Brent NYMEX CL, calendar-spread (long Dec 24, short Dec 25) Resistance $75.20 Gold Buy dips if real yields fall below 0.9 % Futures, GLD ETF, 25-delta call spreads Support $2,390 Silver Momentum long until $35; tighten stops Futures, SLV ETF, 2-month $34 calls Resistance $36.20 Energy Equities Pair trade: long refiners vs. short E&Ps ETFs: CRAK vs. XOP Watch crack spreads Risk managers should recall that correlation spikes under stress: a portfolio long gold and short crude looks diversified—until a Middle-East cease-fire nukes both legs. ________________________________________ 9. Macro Backdrop: Demand Still Fragile Even before the flare-up, oil demand forecasts were slipping: • OECD: Eurozone PMIs languish below 50; German diesel demand –7 % y/y. • China: Q2 refinery runs flatlining; teapot margins < $2/bbl. • India: Bright spot with gasoline demand +9 %, but monsoon season will clip growth. On the supply side, non-OPEC production is rising 1.8 mbpd this year, led by Brazil’s pre-salt, Guyana’s Stabroek block, and U.S. Permian efficiency gains. Unless Middle-East barrels exit the market, the call on OPEC crude will shrink from 28 mbpd in Q2 to 26.7 mbpd in Q4, forcing the cartel to decide between market share and price. ________________________________________ 10. Historical Perspective: Geopolitical Risk Premiums Fade Fast Event Initial Brent Jump Days to Round-Trip Barrels Lost? 2019 Abqaiq Attack +15 % 38 < 0.2 mbpd for 30 days 2020 U.S.–Iran (Soleimani) +5 % 10 None 2022 Russia-Ukraine +35 % Still elevated > 1 mbpd rerouted Based on precedent, a 5–7 % surge without real supply disruption typically unwinds within six weeks. ________________________________________ 11. Outlook Summary • Base Case: Containment; Brent averages $70–72 through summer, melts to $65–68 Q4. Gold consolidates above $2,350; silver churns $30–34. • Bull Case (Oil): Hormuz threatened; Brent $100+, gas prices soar, Fed forced to juggle inflation vs. growth. • Bear Case (Oil): Cease-fire + soft demand; Brent breaks $60, OPEC+ grapples with fresh round of cuts. • ________________________________________ 12. Conclusion The Israel-Iran flashpoint has injected a fresh geopolitical premium into oil and turbo-charged safe-haven metals, but history suggests emotion-driven rallies fade quickly when physical barrels keep flowing. Unless missiles land near Hormuz or an errant drone strikes a Saudi export terminal, the structural forces of rising non-OPEC supply and cooling demand should reassert themselves, dragging Brent back toward the mid-$60s by year-end. For traders, that means respecting the tape today but planning for mean reversion tomorrow—selling gamma-rich call structures in crude, rolling stop-losses higher on bullion longs, and watching like hawks for any hint that shipping lanes are no longer merely a headline risk but a tangible bottleneck. Until that line is crossed, the smart money will treat each price spike not as the dawn of $100 crude, but as an opportunity to hedge, fade, and position for a calmer, cheaper barrel in the months ahead.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
XAU/USD(20250617) Today's AnalysisMarket news: Trump: The United States may still intervene in the Iran-Israel conflict. If Iran launches an attack on the United States, the United States will "fight back with all its strength on an unprecedented scale." Iran and Israel should reach an agreement. Technical analysis: Today's buying and selling boundaries: 3419 Support and resistance levels: 3486 3461 3445 3394 3378 3353 Trading strategy: If the price breaks through 3445, consider buying in, the first target price is 3461 If the price breaks through 3419, consider selling in, the first target price is 3394
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by NuggetsWarriors
Today's Crude Oil Trend Analysis and Trading RecommendationsFrom a daily chart perspective, the violent rally in USOIL driven by external factors has completely disrupted prior technical expectations. The sharp surge has also significantly exhausted future upside potential, explaining today's gap-up and subsequent decline. With minimal likelihood of near-term de-escalation in the Iran situation, USOIL is likely to remain bullish. However, severe overbought conditions on technical charts have disrupted structural expectations, necessitating a price correction. Technically, the $70-$75 range serves as a reasonable short-term consolidation zone, contingent on no severe escalation in Iran tensions. Given the high probability of worsening tensions, USOIL may retest $75 and even challenge $80 driven by geopolitical developments. Thus, while the market remains focused on Iran-related risks, the short-term bias remains bullish. Avoid chasing the rally recklessly. Focus on the $70.5-$71.5 pullback zone early in the week—consider long entries only after price consolidation in this area. USOIL buy@70.50-71.50 tp:74-76-78 Investment itself is not the source of risk; it is only when investment behavior escapes rational control that risks lie in wait. In the trading process, always bear in mind that restraining impulsiveness is the primary criterion for success. I share trading signals daily, and all signals have been accurate without error for a full month. Regardless of your past profits or losses, with my assistance, you have the hope to achieve a breakthrough in your investment.
TVC:USOILLong
by EvanField
Gold (XAUUSD) – Lower TF Wave (B) Top in Place? Higher TF Conflu⚠️ Price has now completed what appears to be a clean 5-wave advance into the key supply zone — potentially completing wave ((C)) of (B) on the lower timeframe. • Wave ((ii)) = expanding flat • Wave ((iv)) = expanding triangle • Final ((v)) push into supply with RSI/MACD divergence A breakdown below 3435 could confirm the reversal into wave (C). Downside fib targets align around 3400, 3350, and 3280. A marginal high can’t be ruled out, but structure is now favouring bears short term.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by EWaveInsights