Waiting for non-farm payroll dataGold prices (XAU/USD) remained under pressure in Asian trading on Friday, trading below $3,300, not far from the January low reached earlier this week. Gold failed to extend its modest overnight rebound, primarily due to the strong US dollar.
The Federal Reserve's latest hawkish tone has prompted a reassessment of the timeline for interest rate cuts, boosting demand for the US dollar and weighing on the non-interest-bearing asset, gold.
The US dollar index rose for the seventh consecutive day, reaching a new high since late May, further weakening gold's appeal. Key to the dollar's momentum lies in the latest inflation data: the US PCE price index rose to 2.6% year-on-year in June, while the core index remained stable at 2.8%, exceeding market expectations and reinforcing the view of persistent inflation.
"Both inflation data and GDP data suggest the US economy remains resilient, giving the Fed little reason to rush into easing," said a Fed observer. "This limits gold's near-term potential as a hedge."
Meanwhile, US President Trump signed an executive order on Thursday imposing import tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on several trading partners, including Asian countries. Countries with trade deficits will face tariffs of at least 15%. This move has heightened global trade concerns, boosted market demand for safe-haven assets, and provided some support for gold.
Despite this, gold prices remain mired in a downward trend. Investors are generally maintaining a wait-and-see approach, awaiting Friday's release of the US July non-farm payroll report. This data is seen as a key indicator of economic resilience and the interest rate outlook. Expectations suggest an increase of 110,000 jobs and a slight rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2%.
The daily gold chart shows that prices are in a weak consolidation phase, capped by key resistance near $3,320. If gold prices fail to break through this area, there is a risk of further decline in the short term. Stronger resistance lies above $3,350. A breakout on strong volume could trigger a rebound towards the $3,380 area, potentially pushing the price above $3,400.
As for downside support, the 100-day moving average provides initial support near $3,270. A break below this could trigger further downward pressure, targeting the $3,240 area, the June low. A further break below this level would target the psychologically important $3,200 level.
In terms of indicators, the MACD death cross continues, with a shortening red bar, indicating weakening bearish momentum but no reversal. The RSI remains in neutral to weak territory, not clearly oversold.
The current gold trend is characterized by a "structurally bearish, sentimentally supportive" pattern. Despite the trade war and heightened global risk aversion, the Federal Reserve's caution about inflation and the strong dollar are exerting significant pressure.
If the July non-farm payroll data is strong, gold could test further technical support. Conversely, weak data or a pullback in the dollar could trigger a technical rebound. PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD ACTIVTRADES:GOLD VANTAGE:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:GOLD EIGHTCAP:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:GOLD
