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NQ studyI am quite sure the sharp move is coming... which way will it happen we will see, for longer term positions there are no reasonable entries, so once we get a breakout of this distribution or consolidation either way we are likely to see the bigger traders joining along which will accelerate the movement, so far we are looking bullish and ld like to see prices remain above the measured imbalance from 24th of february and its 50 % level, as well as going higher should let us overtake the pink imbalance positioned higher and the minor buyside though we have already received the rejection from that area. in this case Looking for sellside delivery first of all I am interested in the minor sellside (20945) as we have formed the equal lows down there, breaking this level will likely put us in shorts for a period of time receiving so called correction to the upward movement we had.
CME_MINI:NQU2025
by itismetrading
6/16/2025 3:33 AM PST - PreMarket Analysis - ChatGPTGOLD/USD (XAU/USD) 15m Chart Analysis – Forecast for Next 24 Hours Market Context Summary (as of chart time ~3:20 UTC, June 16, 2025): Price: ~$3,412 USD/oz Structure: Recent breakdown from the $3,430–$3,440 range; consolidating near $3,412 Trend: Short-term downtrend following a peak near $3,445 Volume: Increasing during breakdown, fading in current range Support Zone: $3,410, $3,402, $3,384 Resistance Zone: $3,430, $3,440+ 🔎 Technical Indicators: 1. RSI (14) Current: ~34.82 Implication: Oversold region nearing bounce zone, but not confirmed yet Watch: Break above 40-45 for early bullish divergence confirmation 2. MACD (12,26,9) Histogram showing signs of waning bearish momentum Signal line is about to cross MACD line upwards — bullish crossover potential Suggests upcoming momentum reversal or relief rally 3. Volume Profile High volume on sell-off from $3,440, but volume has since dropped Volume drop during consolidation typically precedes breakout 🧠 Price Action / Key Levels: Price is holding above key micro-support ~$3,410 Multiple historical order blocks around $3,402 and $3,384 — strong demand zones Prior resistance at $3,430 now acts as resistance again 🎯 Trade Setup (Next 24 Hours) ✅ Scenario 1: Bullish Reversal (Higher Probability) Conditions for entry: MACD bullish crossover + RSI breaking above 45 Price reclaims and closes above ~$3,417–$3,420 on volume Entry: 📈 Buy on breakout candle above $3,420 🎯 Targets: TP1: $3,428 TP2: $3,437 🛑 SL: $3,406 (just below support zone) ❌ Scenario 2: Bearish Continuation (If bounce fails) Conditions: Rejection below $3,420 Breakdown of $3,410 support with increased selling volume Entry: 📉 Sell on confirmed candle close below $3,410 🎯 Targets: TP1: $3,402 TP2: $3,384 🛑 SL: $3,421 (above last consolidation top) 🧠 Strategic Recommendation: Favor long (buy) setup if bullish MACD crossover + RSI recovery >45 happens before NY session Watch for fakeouts during low liquidity hours (Asia session) Avoid premature entries; wait for volume confirmation Would you like this setup translated into a Pine Script alert, or want a 24h trailing risk-reward model? You said: what is the probability between scenario 1 and 2? ChatGPT said: Based on the current chart structure and technical indicators, here's the probability assessment between the two scenarios: 📊 Probability Estimate (Next 24 Hours): Scenario Probability Rationale ✅ Scenario 1: Bullish Reversal 65% - RSI near oversold and starting to curve up MACD histogram shrinking, potential bullish crossover Price holding above short-term support ($3,410) Low-volume pullback suggests sellers are losing momentum | | ❌ Scenario 2: Bearish Continuation | 35% | - No confirmed bullish signal yet Still in a lower high/lower low pattern If $3,410 breaks, no major support until ~$3,402/$3,384 Macro resistance at $3,430 remains intact | 🧠 Explanation: Momentum indicators are hinting at a relief rally, not a full trend reversal yet. Bears had control, but are now losing momentum (fading volume, RSI flattening, MACD bottoming). Market is waiting for confirmation: A bullish breakout could trigger a wave of short covering. 🔮 Summary: If $3,410 holds and MACD crosses bullishly: Long trade has a 65% probability of hitting at least TP1 ($3,428–$3,437). But if $3,410 breaks, expect accelerated downside with 35% chance of continuation to $3,384 zone.
TVC:GOLD
by Trader604
$MGC / $GC / Gold Post-Market UpdateHello Fellow Degenerates, Price retraced below a 3416.2 and it is now between that level and a FVG. I do see some signals that a possible pull back might happen and I have now marked 3442-3430 as an important range to watch. - If the pullback happens, it could be a retest of the HVN resistance, and if price gets rejected in that range, we will go towards our bearish scenario. - However, if price breaks above that range with strength it will mean that we are now going towards our Wave 5 target near 3504. - Levels to watch: 3504, 3442, 3430, 3416, 3358, 3283.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by Caramel0
06/16/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysisEOD accountability report: +450 Sleep: 7 hours Overall health: Good What was my initial plan? I knew today was contract rollovers and decided not to trade it, but after noticing that the x1 signals were working pretty good today, i decided to take some plays at the soft support and resistances. **Daily Trade recap based on VX Algo System from (9:30am to 2pm)** Lot of X7 buy signals (usual signal that market is bullish) — 10:40 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal (triple signal) — 11:56 AM VXAlgo ES X3 Sell Signal — 12:30 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! — 1:20 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal Next day plan--> Above 6010 = Bullish, Under 5965= Bearish Video Recaps -->https://tradingview.sweetlogin.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
CME_MINI:ES1!
by WallSt007
Russell 2000 Breaks Above 50% Fibonacci Retracement Level!Hey Traders today was checking out the Russell 2000 again and it's bullish momentum is increasing fast. But it's looking a little overbought now and so are the other indexes it's been an nice leg up so far and Im not saying it can't continue but remember what goes up must come down eventually. In the stock market it's called a correction for those who may be new to trading. So profit taking should bring prices back down before next leg up to all time highs hopefully. So imo best way to trade it is look for a level that market could retrace back to before buying. the 50% retracement level is normally strong support so I think it market can retrace back to 2105 it looks like a good level to buy back in this market before the bullish momentum continues. Also this is right at the trend line and imo as a trend follower the best place you could ever buy is right at the trendline. However when trading these indexes I notice that it's normally the Nasdaq 100 that leads the market higher. So if the Russell pulls down but the Nasdaq 100 does not. I would not take the trade but if Russell drops and Nasdaq drops also then I believe we have a good confirmation that market has corrected. So I would just put an alert on tradingview at 2105. Will markets always pull back? No so you might need to make changes if bull run continues. But eventually they all will pullback trading is a game of patience. So thats about it no indicators needed best indicator of all time is Price Action imo! Always use Risk Management! (Just in case your wrong in your analysis most experts recommend never to risk more than 2% of your account equity on any given trade.) Hope This Helps Your Trading 😃 Clifford
CME_MINI:RTYM2025Long
by TradeTheIndex
2
Analysis of gold trend on June 16: 1. Market review: bottoming out and rebounding, trend established This week, gold showed an overall "bottoming out and rebounding" trend, laying a solid foundation for the bull market. Especially on Friday, the gold price rose rapidly during the US trading session, breaking through the 3,400 mark, reaching a high of 3,446 US dollars per ounce, a new high in nearly two months. The gold price rose and fell in the late trading, and finally closed at around 3,433, indicating that the short-term is still facing certain profit-taking pressure. On the whole, although the medium-term trend continues to be bullish, the possibility of a technical correction cannot be ruled out at the beginning of next week. In terms of operation, attention should be paid to the rhythm switching, and low-long is still the main tone. 2. Fundamental outlook: Pay attention to the Fed and G7 summit Federal Reserve resolution and Powell's speech The market generally expects that the FOMC will keep the interest rate unchanged this time; Investors will focus on the "dot plot" and the forecast of the future interest rate path; Whether Powell's speech releases dovish signals may provide guidance for the gold trend. Impact of the G7 Summit Trump will visit Canada from June 15 to 17 and attend the G7 Leaders' Summit; His related speeches (involving trade, finance, risk aversion, etc.) may cause fluctuations in the gold market and need to be paid close attention to. III. Technical structure analysis: clear support, bulls dominate 1. Key support level: 3400 mark + daily Bollinger band upper rail 3419: short-term bullish strong support; 3380 line: this Friday's low point + Bollinger middle rail position, still biased towards bullish thinking before breaking. 2. Important resistance level: 3446-3450 area: monthly Bollinger band upper rail, a strong pressure level; If it breaks through, it is expected to further rise to 3455-3465 or even hit the 3500 mark. 3. Indicator reference: If the daily MACD shows a dead cross and the downward momentum column continues to increase, be alert to the market accelerating to the 5-day moving average; On the contrary, if the price stabilizes in the 3400-3420 area, it still has the momentum to continue to rise. 4. Operation suggestions: low-long mainly, high-short as auxiliary Aggressive long: Buy long at the support position of 3400-3410. Stop loss is recommended below 3390. Target is 3450-3465. Short-term support is not broken, bullish Steady long order: Retracing to the 3380 line. Stop loss is recommended below 3365. Target is 3440-3450. Strong support of the middle track of the daily Bollinger Short short attempt: First touch 3450-3465. Stop loss is recommended above 3470. Target is 3420-3415. Quick in and out to prevent breakthrough 5. Summary of views Mid-term trend: Still a clear upward structure; Short-term rhythm: Need to guard against retracement and look for low-long opportunities; Focus on next week: Support below: 3400-3410 / 3380 Resistance above: 3450-3465 / 3500 Next week's gold strategy will still focus on "mainly long on pullbacks and short on rebounds as a supplementary trading idea". Control positions, strictly stop losses, and focus on the guidance of policy events on market sentiment.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Gold_Hunters_Alliance
Bullish trendline broke Gold has just broke its uptrend and making its way towards the weekly trendline. at the moment there's a few support that will still be a berrier such as 3383(H4 FBO), 3360(RBS), 3340(H4 FBO/support), 3320(strong level of support) & 3300(big round number and strong weekly support. while the current trend is heading down but in overall TF og weekly & daily gold is consider still bullish. This has 2 consideration either a short or a major pullback. If short, gold will continue to stay its upwards to retest 3500. but if major pullback then it may make its way towards 3000. my plan is going to be versatile to be able to scalp for sells and buys. so price actions is important and I'll look for short term trades instead holding position. omly to trade in major precised zone and none in between.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by HAN_Simply_Trade
Adjustments do not change the trend, continue to be bullishToday, gold opened high at 3448, and fell under pressure after reaching 3452. After repeatedly confirming resistance at high levels, it went down. We arranged short orders in the 3445-3450 area, successfully reached the target of 3330, and secured profits. Then the market fell back to around 3409 and stabilized and rebounded. We arranged long orders to stop profit near 3420. The current market is still in a bullish trend after the shock and retracement. Adjustment does not change the trend. Retracement is an opportunity. The key is to find the right entry point. From a technical perspective, the support below focuses on the 3410-3405 area, and the key support is at 3400-3390. If the daily level stabilizes in the above area, the upward structure will continue, and the short-term is still expected to test the previous high. Short orders need to strictly control risks, and the trend of low and long is still the main theme. Gold operation strategy: Buy gold when it falls back to around 3410-3405, and consider covering positions when it falls back to 3400-3395, with the target at 3430-3440. For more real-time strategies, I will remind you at the key points as soon as possible,🌐 remember to pay attention! If you still lack direction in gold trading, you might as well try to follow my pace. The strategy is open and transparent, and the execution logic is clear and definite, which may bring new breakthroughs to your trading. The real value does not rely on verbal promises, but is verified by the market and time.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TP_Daniel
17/6/25 Bulls Need FT Buying to Confirm the Breakout Monday’s candlestick (Jun 16) was a bull bar closing near its high and breaking out above the trading range. In our last report, we said the market would likely open higher. Traders would see if the bulls could close the day as a bull bar above the 4000 level, or if the market opens higher, but lacks follow-through buying, closing the day with a bear body with a long tail above. The bulls got a strong bull bar following the big gap up. The bulls got a reversal from a wedge bull flag (May 16, May 26, and Jun 11). They want a breakout above the 4000 high followed by a measured move based on the height of the recent small trading range which will take the market to around the 4150 area. They must create follow-through buying over the next few days to increase the odds of a sustained move. If there is a pullback, they want it to be weak and sideways. They want a retest of the Jun 17 high, even if it only forms a lower high. The bears see the current move as a deep pullback. They want it to form a major lower high (vs April) and a failed breakout above the trading range. They must create strong bear bars to increase the odds of a failed breakout. Production for June should be more or less around May's level. Refineries' appetite to buy so far looks decent. Export: Looks strong in the first 15 days +25% For tomorrow (Tuesday, Jun 17), traders will see if the bulls can create follow-through buying over the next several days. If they can, that will increase the odds of a more sustained move. Or will the market trade down and lack follow-through buying? If this is the case, it will indicate the bulls are not yet strong. Andrew
MYX:FCPO1!Long
by Tech_Trader88
XAUUSD: Gold's Minor Wave (iv) Consolidation Before Final SurgeHello TradingView Community! Quick Elliott Wave update for Gold (XAU/USD), as of June 16, 2025. Gold is currently in a Minor Wave (iv) consolidation within its larger Wave 5 uptrend. This period of sideways movement is healthy and expected to last from a few days to a month, building a base. My primary view is that once this Wave (iv) completes, Gold will launch into its final bullish surge (Minor Wave (v) of Wave 5), targeting new all-time highs. Long-Term: Be aware that after this "5th of 5th" completes, a prolonged, multi-month to multi-year correction or consolidation is highly probable, marking the end of the current major bull cycle. Thoughts? Let me know below! Like & Follow if helpful. #XAUUSD #Gold #ElliottWave #EW #Fibonacci #TechnicalAnalysis #Consolidation #Uptrend #PriceAction #ChartAnalysis #WaveAnalysis #MarketStructure #TrendAnalysis #Bullish #Correction #PriceForecast #LongTerm #ShortTerm #Trading #Investing #MarketUpdate #FX #Commodities ❗ Important Disclaimer: This analysis is based on Elliott Wave Principle and is my personal interpretation, not financial advice. Trading involves risk. Always do your own research.
SAXO:XAUUSDLong
by exprwebdev
Middle East tensions ease? Prices fall?Information summary: Iran sent a peace signal to the United States and Israel through Arab intermediaries - requiring the United States not to carry out air strikes as a prerequisite for restarting nuclear negotiations, and emphasizing to Israel that controlling violence is in the common interest. Under the influence of this news, gold turned downward several times, reaching a low of $3,383, and then rebounded slightly. The current price fluctuates slightly above $3,400. Market analysis: Technical analysis shows that the current price has broken through the key resistance area of ​​the previous high and the middle track resonance. The 4-hour chart continues to be bullish under the support of the middle track, and the short-term sideways adjustment is a normal accumulation of upward momentum. If the integer mark of $3,400 can be maintained, the hourly chart is expected to continue the upward trend after a narrow range of fluctuations, and accelerate to a new high after breaking through; on the contrary, if this position is lost, it is necessary to be vigilant about the risk of trend reversal. The geopolitical crisis continues to ferment, injecting medium- and long-term safe-haven demand into gold. Combined with the strong closing pattern at the weekly level, the core operation strategy should be to buy on the pullback, focusing on the 3400-line long-short dividing line. At present, the price can be arranged for long orders, and the target will be the previous high point after breaking through 3415, but the risk of falling back from the high point must be strictly prevented. Good luck to everyone in the new week.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Quaid_1
The situation has eased, and gold has pulled back! Although Iran has released a signal of easing, Israel's action plan remains unchanged and the situation remains tense. Just recently, Israeli missiles attacked Iran's national news TV station. Gold has only fallen back, and it is definitely not turning around. Gold continues to be bullish, and there are still long positions near 3400. Overall, it continues to look above 3460. With the situation easing, it began to pull back. The fermentation of this round of news has restrained the big funds and did not test the high point of 3500 upwards. Overall, the increase in gold prices is not large, and there is still a process of pulling. The fundamentals have not changed, and gold is still in a bull market. Today's trend is obviously still mainly washing the market. The big negative line came down and then pulled up strongly. The bottom line is 3380. It is obviously the support of the market and the bottom signal. This 3380 is the previous high point and the future support. At present, it is to keep an eye on this position and continue to increase positions near 3400. It's that simple.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by RupertNoel
1
Gold has broken below the $3,400 level.The gold price continued its steady retracement during the European session, pulling back from a two-month high to around $3,400. The positive performance of equity markets is regarded as a key factor undermining the safe-haven demand for precious metals, as gold's three-day winning streak appears to have come to an end. However, analysts believe the downside remains limited, as traders may avoid aggressive positioning ahead of Wednesday's crucial Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy decision. Meanwhile, growing market expectations that the Federal Reserve will further cut interest rates in 2025 have kept the U.S. dollar under sustained pressure after it hit a three-year low last Friday. This scenario, in turn, provides some support for non-yielding gold. Additionally, persistent trade uncertainties and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may emerge as drivers for gold prices, keeping bearish traders cautious before any meaningful downward moves. Although gold has broken below $3,400 and the short-term trend has shifted, the long-term direction remains unchanged with a bullish bias. There is still potential to target the $3,500 high in the future, but it is necessary to wait for the bottom to stabilize before accumulating long positions. In the current market, we can only follow the trend—adapting to market movements. Consider initiating short positions during the rebound in the coming two days. you are currently struggling with losses，or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow,You have the option to join our VIP program. I will assist you and provide you with accurate trading signals, enabling you to navigate the financial markets with greater confidence and potentially achieve optimal trading results. Trading Strategy: sell@3420-3430 TP:3380-3390
CAPITALCOM:GOLDShort
by Ashbur
Gold is pulling back and offering buy entry but be wise...Similar to OIL I also believe that GOLD will seek new high however I advise more strict risk mgt on this commodity as it’s the most traded and manipulation occurs so we may see the price being pushed down more than expected Pullback level should take place just below the 3400 area ideally between 3397 and 3392, where buyers may start pushing the commodity up to 3517.36 and 3599.92 There is a risk of the price being pushed down to 3376.26 also a buy area for a 2:300 pips rally if the market wants to gold to remain below the 3450 level
TVC:GOLDLong
by SalvoVaccaro
SPY 5 Wave Impulse The broader equity market has staged a significant rebound from the panic-induced tariff lows seen in April, reclaiming the previously established value area with notable strength. Generally, when price reclaims a value range, it can be common for price to oscillate within the value area high, and low, to build strength for the next move. From a structural standpoint, I interpret this advance as a five-wave impulsive sequence, with the current rally toward the 6100 level representing the fifth subwave within a larger third wave of the broader Elliott Wave framework. According to this interpretation, we may be approaching a final "blow-off" move to the upside—commonly labeled as Wave 5 of 5—which is often characterized by its velocity, magnitude, and the psychological impact it has on retail participants, frequently triggering a surge of FOMO-driven buying. However, I urge caution: this concluding leg may offer a strategic opportunity to reduce equity exposure, particularly as August has historically exhibited bearish seasonality. A swift corrective decline could follow the completion of this wave, potentially sparking short-term panic. While unsettling, such a correction would likely represent a healthy rebalancing within the broader uptrend and could provide an advantageous entry point ahead of a year-end rally. Furthermore, it's worth noting that many hedge funds and CTAs have remained underexposed throughout this powerful ascent. Should valuations reset to more attractive levels, sidelined liquidity—particularly capital currently parked in money markets—may be incentivized to re-enter the market with a longer-term outlook. The key indicator which I will be following is the VIX risk sentiment in the market. Once we reach elevated levels above approx 30/40 , this would be a good time for me to analyze potentially dollar cost averaging back into the market. Good luck!
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by afurs1