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Oil Prices Surge Following Armed Conflict Between Israel and Ira In the early hours of Friday, June 13, a new turning point in global geopolitics emerged and extended through the weekend: Israel launched an aerial attack using missiles and drones on Iranian nuclear facilities, triggering an immediate reaction in energy markets. The conflict has continued throughout the weekend, resulting in casualties on both sides, including significant losses within the Iranian military hierarchy. Brent crude spiked intraday by 13%, closing at $75.40—its highest jump in five years. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also surged to $74, erasing its year-to-date losses. As of today, this upward movement appears to have paused temporarily. Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, Brent broke through the key resistance level of $74 and began the week reaching a peak of $78.46, opening the door to a potential bullish extension toward the psychological $80 level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is now above 70 on daily charts, starting the week at 75.33%, indicating overbought conditions—albeit justified by the sudden spike in geopolitical risk. On the weekly candles, the price has broken out of a bearish consolidation pattern that had persisted since March. A weekly close above current psychological resistance highs could confirm a trend reversal if prices break through the $82.60 resistance during the week. Today’s Asian session showed signs of a technical ceiling, with a red candle at the session open failing to surpass Friday’s highs, indicating weakness and pushing the 1-hour RSI down to around 56%. Since early May, oil has risen approximately 25%, suggesting a potentially revitalized trend. Looking at moving average crossovers, the 50-period MA has crossed above the 100-period MA, signaling the beginning of an uptrend. If this is confirmed by a cross above the 200 MA this week, prices could recover toward $96, assuming resistance levels are breached. Bearish pressure during the Asian session is largely attributed to U.S. pressure on oil prices. The point of control has remained significantly below current prices—around $72–73—forming a wide bell-shaped profile concentrated in that range, where prices have traded most frequently since late last year. Fundamental Analysis The driver behind this sharp move is clear: the market is pricing in the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of the world’s oil flows. Any disruption in this strategic chokepoint would dramatically increase logistical costs and the risk of short-term shortages. Banks like JP Morgan warn that a total closure—although unlikely—could send crude prices as high as $130 per barrel. Currently, they estimate a 7% probability of such an outcome, but even a partial escalation is enough to maintain an elevated risk premium. U.S. weekly crude inventories also fell more than expected (-3.8 million barrels), adding further upward pressure. These tensions arise just as OPEC+ had begun to ease its production cuts. Current volatility may force a strategic rethink within the cartel, with emergency meetings possible if the Middle East crisis worsens. Impact on Energy and Macroeconomic Markets The immediate surge in oil prices reflects not only fears of physical supply disruption but also a reassessment of "tail risks"—now considered more plausible—such as a partial or full closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This scenario fuels a structural geopolitical premium that could persist for weeks or even months if the escalation continues. The response among listed oil companies has been mixed. Giants like ExxonMobil and Chevron saw immediate share price increases, while more regionally exposed firms such as TotalEnergies and BP showed greater volatility. Meanwhile, crude oil shipping companies like Frontline or Euronav may benefit from longer, costlier, but potentially more profitable freight routes. Persistently high oil prices could challenge expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, potentially sparking a new inflationary wave in the energy component. This could lead to unexpectedly tighter global financial conditions, especially in energy-dependent economies. Net energy importers—such as India, Japan, or much of the eurozone—could see their trade balances worsen and currencies weaken, while exporters like Saudi Arabia, Russia, or even Venezuela could gain fiscal and political strength. Global Repercussions The conflict between Israel and Iran represents a new inflection point for the oil market. Its trajectory will be critical for commodities, capital flows, and monetary policy throughout the second half of the year. Technically, the $96 per barrel zone becomes increasingly likely if the conflict drags on. Fundamentally, a strategic realignment among multilateral organizations and producers seems imminent, possibly ushering in a new phase of higher and more volatile oil prices. The key lies in two factors: Iran’s response and the stance of the United States, which has condemned the attack but has yet to take direct military action. If Washington becomes actively involved, the impact could be far more profound—economically and geopolitically—and markets are beginning to price in that risk. The conflict also threatens to derail diplomatic efforts between Tehran and Washington, which had recently resumed with the goal of reviving the 2015 nuclear deal. The attack has frozen those talks and prompted Iran to announce severe retaliatory measures, adding another layer of uncertainty for global markets. Investors have responded by shifting clearly toward safe-haven assets such as gold, which rose more than 2% during the session, and the U.S. dollar, which regained ground against major emerging market currencies. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:BRENTQ2025Long
by ActivTrades
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 6/16/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2025 - PR High: 21903.75 - PR Low: 21726.00 - NZ Spread: 396.75 No key scheduled economic events Contract rollover week Session Open Stats (As of 12:15 AM 6/16) - Session Open ATR: 382.14 - Volume: 18K - Open Int: 62K - Trend Grade: Neutral - From BA ATH: -4.1% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 22096 - Mid: 20383 - Short: 19246 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQU2025
by mv3trader5
20250616-XAUUSD IdeaThe flag pattern in the major time frame did not succeed. Instead of breaking below the 3295 price level, the price was rejected at the top of the descending channel. Looking back, I now interpret this as a leading diagonal that initiated an uptrend. After reaching the previous high at the 3435 price level, a rising wedge pattern has formed. On the smaller time frame, there are shorting opportunities. Long opportunities may appear when the price hit the uptrend line.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Jerry_CTL
Aligning with smart money concepts and institutional order flow.XAUUSD is currently experiencing a significant decline after sweeping the liquidity resting above its previous highs. This downward movement has also resulted in a break of the key trendline, signaling potential for further bearish momentum. The market now appears to be heading toward the marked Fair Value Gap (FVG) within the demand zone, where additional liquidity is also positioned along the broken trendline. Furthermore, there's another FVG located below the current price level, providing a strong confluence for a continued drop. It’s advisable to remain patient and wait for the price to reach this FVG zone. Once it does, we could potentially find a high-probability buying opportunity from that level, aligning with smart money concepts and institutional order flow! DYOR! Not Financial Advice.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Peter_Wade
Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis - 16 June 20254H Chart: Market Structure & Bias Gold’s 4-hour chart shows a bullish structure: price has been making higher highs and higher lows (a valid Break of Structure/BOS) No bearish Change of Character (CHoCH) signal is present to suggest a reversal, so the overall bias remains bullish. In other words, the trend is intact and buyers still dominate. Key moving averages (not shown) also slope upward, reinforcing a “buy the dip” bias. We note that price recently stalled near 3427–3435, forming a small consolidation. This clustered area around the recent high acts as a near-term supply (resistance) zone (a possible order block where big players sold). On the downside, prior support is visible around 3380–3400, where buyers stepped in on earlier pullbacks. In summary, the 4H bias is bullish, with dips into demand areas likely to attract buying interest. Support/Demand Zones: At ~3380–3400 there is significant buying interest (a demand zone), as well as a minor support band around 3330–3350. These areas coincide with key Fibonacci retracements (around 50–62% of the last rally), making them high-probability bounce zones. Resistance/Supply Zones: On the upside, the 3420–3435 range is resistance (recent swing high and a bearish order-block area). Farther above, 3470–3485 is a major resistance cluster (around prior highs and a 61.8% extension), where supply may re-emerge. Key Zones (4H Chart) Buy Zone 1 (Demand): 3380–3400. This zone acted as support on prior pullbacks and aligns with ~50%–62% Fibonacci retracement levels. It represents a demand area (many buy orders), so bounces are likely here. Buy Zone 2 (Support): 3330–3350. A deeper support area where buyers piled in previously. It coincides with the 61.8% Fib retrace of the last leg, making it a strong multi-purpose support/demand zone. Sell Zone 1 (Supply): 3420–3435. This marks the recent 4H swing high and a potential bearish order block. It has already capped rallies, so price may stall or reverse here on a retest. Sell Zone 2 (Resistance): 3470–3485. A higher cluster of resistance (major psychological level and Fib extension) where selling could appear if gold extends its rally. This is a logical profit-taking area. Each of these zones is a range (not just a line) to allow for some trade flexibility. We watch for price action (like pin bars or breakouts) within these ranges to signal entries. 1H Chart: Trade Setups Buy at 3385–3395 (Long). Entry Zone: 3385–3395 (just above the lower demand zone). Stop-Loss: ~10 USD below the zone (around 3375). Take-Profit: 3420 (minor resistance) and 3460 (next supply cluster). Reason: This zone combines the 4H demand area and ~50% Fib support. We expect bulls to defend this zone. Trigger: Wait for a bullish reversal candle on 1H (e.g. a strong bullish pin bar or engulfing candle with a long lower wick). Such a candle (long-tail wick) at support indicates a liquidity grab by buyers. Alternatively, a clear 1H BOS above the last minor swing high would confirm strength and serve as a breakout entry. Buy on 3425–3430 breakout (Long). Entry Zone: Break above 3425–3430 (just above the recent 4H high). Stop-Loss: ~10 USD below entry (around 3415). Take-Profit: 3480–3490 (next resistance zone). Reason: A push through the 3420–3435 supply zone would show buyers overcoming sellers. This would keep the uptrend running. The breakout opens room toward the 3470–3485 resistance area. Trigger: Enter on a 1H bullish breakout/close above 3430 (a new higher high) – i.e. a bullish BOS confirming continued uptrend. Optionally look for a pullback to 3425 as a retest entry if the breakout is swift. Buy at 3330–3340 (Long). Entry Zone: 3330–3340 (deeper support zone on 4H). Stop-Loss: ~10 USD below the zone (around 3320). Take-Profit: 3380 (first target), then 3420. Reason: This is a strong support/demand area (4H 61.8% Fib support). A drop here would be a deeper pullback – a higher-risk entry with a bigger reward if buyers step in. Trigger: Look for a clear bullish reversal on 1H (e.g. hammer/engulfing candle) or a shift in structure (price fails to make a new low and instead forms a higher low). A bullish candlestick in this zone implies demand is defending it. Each setup is aligned with the 4H bullish bias (we’re looking for long opportunities at support zones or breakouts). The ~$10 stops are set just beyond the defined entry zone, giving each trade a favorable risk/reward. Takeaway: Gold’s 4-hour trend is up. We favor buying near the identified demand/support zones (or on a confirmed breakout above recent highs) and targeting the next resistance levels. Use tight stops (~$10 beyond each zone) and aim for 2:1+ reward on these high-probability setups. Trade with the trend and respect the key zones above.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Tami512
Geopolitical conflict re-emerges, price points to 3500?Information summary: The powder keg of the Middle East situation exploded. A new round of fierce fighting between Israel and Iran has pushed the global financial market into a risk-averse storm. In just one day, gold soared. In the early Asian session on Monday, the price of gold was unstoppable, hitting a nearly seven-week high of $3451/ounce. Under the dark clouds of geopolitical conflict, gold bulls are in full swing, and the $3500 mark seems to be within reach. In addition, the market will face two major tests this week: the monthly rate of US retail sales and the highly anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Technical analysis: At the daily level, the MA10, MA7, and MA5 moving averages are diverging upward, the RSI indicator turns upward, and the gold price is running steadily in the upper and middle track area of ​​the Bollinger band. In the four-hour cycle, the moving average forms a golden cross arrangement and the opening continues to expand. The price continues to rise along the MA10 daily moving average, and the Bollinger band also maintains an upward opening shape. The current market is dominated by geopolitical risks in the Middle East, and the gold price is consolidating at a high level. If the situation does not change, the gold price will most likely remain above $3,400 today, and it is even very likely to refresh the historical high of $3,500 today and tomorrow. Therefore, before the trend changes, the long strategy is still the best choice. Operation strategy; Buy near 3420, stop loss 3410, target 3460-3470.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Quaid_1
S&P Sellers got LIQUIDATED we are Bullish again.Good day Trader :) Here’s another market breakdown for you, focusing on the S&P futures and where I believe this week's candlestick is likely to expand. Late last week (Wednesday), I mentioned the potential for a retracement, not a reversal , and at the start of this week, we saw exactly that. Sellers were quickly liquidated, and the market has resumed its bullish momentum. Looking ahead, my expectation is for price to expand toward the 6,075 level. In this analysis, I’ll walk you through a quick review of last week’s price action and provide an in-depth breakdown of why I believe this target is within reach. Let’s dive in... OneCandlestickAtATime Referenced Idea
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by MarketsByLee_
WTI(20250616)Today's AnalysisMarket news: Trump: The United States may still intervene in the Iran-Israel conflict. If Iran launches an attack on the United States, the United States will "fight back with all its strength on an unprecedented scale." Iran and Israel should reach an agreement. Technical analysis: Today's buying and selling boundaries: 71.11 Support and resistance levels: 78.59 75.79 73.98 68.24 66.43 63.64 Trading strategy: If the price breaks through 73.98, consider buying in, the first target price is 75.79 If the price breaks through 71.11, consider selling in, the first target price is 68.24
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by NuggetsWarriors
XAU(GOLD) - ATH SOON?The below image illustrated is M-Prof This 4H SVP chart of Gold (XAU/USD) shows a clear uptrend structure supported by consistently shifting value areas, POCs, and VAHs toward higher prices. The price action has built strong acceptance near 3,320 and 3,370 zones, both showing overlapping value and consolidation before new legs higher. Notably, after a tight range between June 10–12, price broke out with aggressive initiative buying visible through vertical profiles and newly formed higher VAH/POC levels near 3,435. This suggests strong buyer conviction, and the current session holding above the previous VAH/POC indicates potential continuation unless price falls back into the old range. The move looks healthy, with demand pushing new value upward and little resistance unless exhaustion prints near 3,450+ which clearly states that the purple line cant be happening but if it happens it would be the best buys! Also the small move of green can aid them to new ATH!
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by MastaCrypta
Gold price agencies are bullish on the coming of the 4,000 era Gold Weekly Review: Geopolitical conflicts trigger safe-haven demand, gold prices soared 3.6% in a single week to stand above $3,400 Geopolitical crises dominate the market On Friday (June 14), the international gold price rose rapidly, reaching a high of $3,446.71 per ounce, a new high in nearly two months, and finally closed above the key mark of $3,400. The cumulative increase this week was 3.6%, mainly affected by the sharp deterioration of the situation in the Middle East. The Bollinger Bands indicator shows that the gold price has broken through the upper track and is showing a strong upward trend. The most serious military confrontation since the Israeli-Palestinian conflict broke out in the Middle East: Israel launched an unprecedented strike: a large-scale air strike on Iran's nuclear facilities and missile factories, causing casualties among many senior personnel including military commanders and nuclear scientists. The Israeli side stated that the action was aimed at curbing Iran's nuclear weapons research and development capabilities. Iran launched a retaliatory attack: two rounds of missiles were launched at major cities such as Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, and air defense systems were activated throughout Israel. The US military confirmed that it assisted in intercepting incoming missiles. Strong statements by leaders: Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei accused Israel of provoking war, and senior officials warned that “there is no safe zone in Israel”; US President Trump hinted that Iran was responsible for the escalation of the situation. Multiple factors support gold prices Safe-haven demand surges: Military conflicts have led to an acceleration of global funds flowing into safe-haven assets such as gold. Market analysis shows that if the conflict continues to escalate, gold prices are expected to test the $3,500 mark in the short term. Fed policy expectations: Weak inflation data (CPI) and slowing employment growth released this week have strengthened expectations of interest rate cuts. Although the market generally expects that the June meeting will remain unchanged, institutions predict: Citi: The interest rate cut cycle will start in September, and each meeting thereafter will continue to cut interest rates until 2026 The interest rate dot plot may show two interest rate cuts in 2025 Structural buying support: Major investment banks maintain a long-term bullish view: Goldman Sachs: Target $3,700 by the end of 2025, $4,000 by mid-2026 Bank of America: Target $4,000 in the next 12 months Physical market and policy risks Demand in Asia cools: Indian gold prices break through the psychological barrier of 100,000 rupees, suppressing local consumption. Trade policy variables: US President Trump hinted that he may increase tariffs on auto imports, exacerbating global trade tensions. Relevant policy statements during the G7 summit next week are worth paying attention to. Outlook Next week, the market will focus on three key factors: Geopolitical developments: Will the conflict between Iran and Israel escalate further? Federal Reserve Decision (June 17-18): Interest rate policy statement Summary of economic forecasts (including dot plot) Powell press conference wording Economic data: May retail sales report will provide the latest clues on consumer demand Technical data shows that after gold prices broke through key resistance levels, the upward channel has been opened. If geopolitical risks continue, combined with the Fed's release of dovish signals, gold prices may accelerate towards $3,500. However, we need to be wary of the risk of profit-taking caused by a sudden easing of the situation.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Trend_Trading_xau
Gold Analysis (Bullish Bias)Gold continues to show strong bullish momentum, supported by key technical levels and favorable market structure. Price action remains constructive above the major support zone, indicating potential for further upside. I'm closely monitoring the following levels for a high-probability long setup: Demand Zone / Support Level: Entry key level: 3426 - 3420 As long as gold holds above this support, the bias remains bullish with potential for a continuation toward higher resistance levels. A break and sustained move above the entry zone would confirm bullish strength and could trigger the next leg up. Risk management remains key waiting for clear confirmation before entering is advised. #GOLD, #FOREX , # @VeloraFXReal
FXOPEN:XAUUSDLong
by VeloraFXReal
Does gold break or not Looking like the pressure in trade and uncertainty will help lift gold into 2480’s and tempt a pullback and build up into 2528 and beyond. Exciting stuff! A pullback could mean a slippery slide to a diagonal support and some hefty by orders on more standard news. Long here 120 units, tight stop loss at 3424oz. Will pickup in increments down to set buying zones or the long diagonal supports for the ride back up regardless. Will expect a choppy wave before readying a rip up though… have to be dramatic about something that’s going to happen regardless? It’s gold.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ImminentDanger
2
Coffee smells nice especially with profitsBe honest, what do you do when your trade gets into profits almost immediately when you placed the trade ? Is your decision to close the trade affected by past trades, especially if you had several losses ? In your mind , are you thinking if I take profits off the table now, I would be square off or make a small profit for today. The pressure is intense............ I used to do that in the past, not anymore. I am entering into a new mental phase of keeping my cool (maybe enough losses, haha) or embark on this new strategy......... If profit target is at 3 and you took it when it reaches 1, then you need to buy it back at 2 later to reach 3 and more often than not, the retracement in the 2nd trade will wipe out your tight SL. So, my strategy is to do nothing and let it run and keep staring at the profits and telling myself, stay calm and not do anything rash and stupid like taking profits. Of course, some of you may disagree with my idea and think I am an idiot or unrealistic or gone berserk. Study my SL and you will slowly come to appreciate my rationale for doing so. Of course, I hope it turns out the way I want it to be. Let's see later.......
EIGHTCAP:COFFEELong
by dchua1969