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SMC 🔥 Awesome! This analysis was perfect. • Plan Confirmation: The price fully respected the resistance zone, broke the trend line, and followed the bearish projection exactly. • Liquidity and Fake Out: The market created the typical liquidity trap at the resistance level (fake breakout), as anticipated. • TP: It went straight to the 3.301 target and even surpassed it, which shows that the reading of the institutional flow was accurate. • Clean SMC: BOS, CHoCH, FVG mitigation, and impulsive movement toward the support zone → Smart Money textbook.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDShort
by Fonseca87
GOLD BUY M15 Gold (XAU/USD) 15-Minute Chart Analysis – July 30, 2025 Price recently broke structure (BOS) to the downside, reaching a key demand zone near the 3293 level, which is marked as a potential weak low. The current analysis suggests a possible bullish reversal from this demand area. Entry Zone: Price is currently testing the demand zone near 3293-3300. Stop Loss (SL): Placed at 3293, just below the weak low. Target (TP): 3339, which aligns with a previous strong high and resistance area. Intermediate Resistance Levels: 3310.049 3320.396 A bullish structure is expected to form with higher highs and higher lows as price potentially climbs toward the target. The analysis anticipates a breakout from current consolidation and a move toward the upper resistance zone.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Sniperfx05
How to Find Liquidity Zones/Clusters on Any Forex Pair (GOLD) You need just 1 minute of your time to find significant liquidity zones on any Forex pair and Gold. In this article, I will teach you how to identify supply and demand zones easily step by step. Liquidity Basics By a market liquidity, I mean market orders. The orders are not equally distributed among all the price levels. While some will concentrate the interest of the market participants, some levels will be low on liquidity. Price levels and the areas that will attract and amass trading orders will be called liquidity zones. How to Find Supply Zones To find the strongest liquidity clusters, we will need to analyze a daily time frame. A liquidity zone that is above current prices will be called a supply zone. High volumes of selling orders will be distributed within. One of the proven techniques to find such zones is to analyze a historic price action. You should identify a price level that acted as a strong resistance in the past. 4 horizontal levels that I underlined on EURGBP influenced market behavior in the recent past. The price retraced from these levels significantly. Why It Happened? A down movement could occur because of an excess of selling orders and a closure of long positions by the buyers. These factors indicate a high concentration of a liquidity around these price levels. How to Draw Supply Zone? One more thing to note about all these horizontal levels is that they cluster and the distance between them is relatively small . To find a significant liquidity supply zone, I advise merging them into a single zone. To draw that properly, its high should be based on the highest high among these levels. Its low should be based on the highest candle close level. Following this strategy, here are 2 more significant supply zones. We will assume that selling interest will concentrate within these areas and selling orders will be spread across its price ranges. How to Find Demand Zones A liquidity zone that is below current spot price levels will be called a demand zone . We will assume that buying orders will accumulate within. To find these zones, we will analyze historically important price levels that acted as strong supports in the past. I found 3 key support levels. After tests of these levels, buying pressure emerged. Why It Happened? A bullish movement could occur because of an excess of buying orders and a closure of short positions by the sellers. Such clues strongly indicate a concentration of liquidity. How to Draw Demand Zones? Because these levels are close to each other, we will unify them into a one liquidity demand zone. To draw a demand zone, I suggest that its low should be the lowest low among these key levels and its high should be the lowest candle close. Examine 2 more liquidity zones that I found following this method. Please, note that Demand Zone 2 is based on one single key level. It is not mandatory for a liquidity zone to be based on multiple significant levels, it can be just one. We will assume that buying interest will concentrate within these areas and buying orders will be allocated within the hole range. Broken Liquidity Zones There is one more liquidity zone that I did not underline. That is a broken supply zone. After a breakout and a candle close above, it turned into a demand zone. For that reason, I plotted that based on the rules of supply zone drawing. Start Market Analysis From Liquidity Liquidity zones are one of the core elements of forex trading. Your ability to recognize them properly is the key in predicting accurate price reversals. Identify liquidity zones for: spotting safe entry points, use these zones as targets, set your stop losses taking them into consideration. They will help you to better understand the psychology of the market participants and their behavior. I hope that the today's tutorial demonstrated you that it is very easy to find them. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
1
[ TimeLine ] Gold 31 July 2025📆 Today’s Date: Wednesday, July 30, 2025 📌 Upcoming Signal Dates: • July 31, 2025 (Thursday) — Single-candle setup • July 31–August 1, 2025 (Thursday–Friday) — Two-candle combined range 🧠 Trading Outlook & Notes ✅ Gold has recently dropped sharply from 3439 to 3298, and current conditions suggest this bearish momentum may continue. ✅ I’ll be actively trading both the July 31 and July 31–August 1 setups as part of my ongoing strategy testing and live analysis. ✅ This method and timing structure can also be applied to other assets like BTC, the US Index, and various commodities. ⚠️ For those taking a more cautious approach, it’s absolutely okay to skip the single-candle setup on July 31 and wait for the more confirmed 2-day range setup (July 31–August 1). 📋 Execution Guidelines 🔹 Range Identification: • Let the Hi-Lo range of the chosen candle(s) form completely. • Purple lines will mark these ranges on the chart. • After the daily close, charts will be updated to include a 60-pip buffer, Fibonacci zones, and relevant indicators. 🔹 Entry Conditions: • Trades are triggered only if price breaks above/below the full range, including the buffer zone. 🔹 Risk Management – Recovery Logic: • If the Stop Loss is triggered, the trade is exited or switched, and the next valid breakout setup will use a doubled lot size to attempt recovery. 📉📈 Chart Snapshot 🔗 Paste this in TradingView: TV/x/fykxBG6w/ 📌 Stick to the plan, follow the system, and let the chart lead the way. 🛡️ Capital protection comes first — always manage your risk.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by lybeedo
[ TimeLine ] Gold 17 July 2025📆 Today is Wednesday, July 16, 2025 📌 Upcoming Signal Dates: • July 17, 2025 (Thursday) — Single-candle setup • July 17–18, 2025 (Thursday–Friday) — Two-candle combined range 🧠 Trading Plan & Notes ✅ Gold recently moved in a wide range between 3365 to 3282, and by the time this signal is published, we’re seeing signs of a strong reversal. ✅ I will be trading both the July 17 and July 17–18 signals as part of my ongoing live research and strategy development. ✅ The same timeframe and signal approach also applies to other instruments such as BTC, US Index, and several commodity pairs. ⚠️ If you’re feeling cautious or risk-averse, it’s perfectly fine to skip the July 17 single-candle setup and wait for the 2-day range (July 17–18) for added confirmation. 📋 Execution Plan 🔹 Range Formation: • Wait for the Hi-Lo range from the selected candle(s) to fully form. • Ranges will be marked with purple lines on the chart. • After market close, the chart will be updated with 60-pip buffer zones, Fibonacci retracement levels, and supporting indicators. 🔹 Entry Trigger Rule: • Entry only if price breaks out beyond the defined range, including the 60-pip buffer. 🔹 Risk Management – Recovery Strategy: • If Stop Loss (SL) is hit, the trade will be cut/switch, and position size doubled on the next valid breakout signal to aim for recovery. 📉📈 Chart Reference 🔗 Copy & paste into TradingView: TV/x/6x8VJKs1/ 📌 Stay disciplined, trust the process, and let the chart guide your decisions. 🛡️ Manage your risk — protect your capital.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by lybeedo
Implied volatility, one more tool in our arsenalWHAT IS IMPLIED VOLATILITY? Implied volatility (IV) refers to the market’s expectations of future volatility for a given asset, derived from option prices. Unlike historical volatility, which measures past price fluctuations, IV is forward-looking and reflects what traders believe will happen in the near future, typically over a 1 to 3 month horizon. IV is not directly observable; it is inferred from option prices using models like Black-Scholes. When option premiums rise even though the underlying asset remains flat, this often signals a rise in implied volatility: investors are preparing for more pronounced future price moves. IMPLIED VOLATILITY IN FX In FX markets, as in equities or commodities, implied volatility serves as a risk gauge and a proxy for uncertainty. It plays a critical role in portfolio management, hedging, and strategy timing. High implied volatility on a currency pair indicates market expectations for increased future movement. This can stem from upcoming economic data, central bank decisions, geopolitical risk, or broader market instability. For example, rising IV on EUR/USD ahead of a major Fed or ECB meeting may signal increased demand for options as market participants hedge against potential surprises. Conversely, sustained low IV often reflects calm market conditions or, at times, a strong directional trend. Implied volatility can act as a market condition filter for trading strategies. To simplify, we can, for example, divide the CVOL level into four distinct categories. Abnormally low IV (well below average): Reflects extreme complacency or post-event calm. Moderately low IV (below average): Indicates orderly, technical markets. Moderately high IV (above average): Suggests elevated uncertainty. Abnormally high IV (well above average): Signals market stress or panic. In spot FX, where retail traders rarely engage in options directly, implied volatility serves best as a macro signal, helping inform position sizing, stop placement, or overall risk exposure based on the current volatility regime. One advanced use of IV is to compare it against realized (historical) volatility. When implied volatility is much higher than realized volatility, it often means options are expensive, and vice versa. This comparison proves especially valuable in FX markets, as it helps traders identify situations where risk premia may be overpriced, revealing potential misalignments between implied and realized volatility. It also offers a forward-looking perspective by highlighting upcoming catalysts that are not yet fully priced into the spot market. INTRODUCING THE CME CVOL INDEX To make volatility data more accessible and comparable across asset classes, CME Group introduced the CVOL index family in 2023, a set of standardized implied volatility indexes derived from listed futures options. How CVOL is calculated? CVOL indexes are built using vanilla options on futures. They estimate 30-day forward implied volatility, using a basket of out-of-the-money options across various strikes and near-term expirations. The methodology is comparable to that of the VIX in equities, but adapted for the structure of futures markets. Each CVOL index is expressed as an annualized percentage, which can be interpreted as the expected one-standard-deviation move over the next 30 days. CVOL indexes in FX Several major currency pairs now have their own dedicated CVOL indexes, offering a real-time measure of implied volatility based on options pricing from CME Group futures contracts. Each index reflects the market’s expectations of future volatility for a given pair: EUVL for EUR/USD (based on 6E futures) JPVL for USD/JPY (6J futures) GBPVL for GBP/USD (6B futures) CAVL for USD/CAD (6C futures) ADVL for AUD/USD (6A futures) In addition to individual pair indexes, the G5 CVOL Index provides a broader view by aggregating the implied volatility of the five major currency pairs, offering a high-level snapshot of volatility across the G5 FX complex. This makes it a valuable tool for macro-focused traders monitoring global risk appetite, cross-asset volatility regimes, or portfolio-level currency exposure. HOW TO USE CVOL IN PRACTICE Detecting shifts in risk perception A sudden spike in CVOL, without a move in the underlying, suggests that institutional players are actively hedging. This can act as an early warning signal for market-moving events or shifts in sentiment. Example: before an ECB decision, a jump in EUVL from 7% to 10% annualized while EUR/USD remains flat may suggest that traders are bracing for a policy surprise. Adjusting position sizing When CVOL moves beyond predefined thresholds, traders often respond by reducing leverage, widening stop-loss and take-profit levels, and avoiding overly aggressive directional exposure, in contrast with periods where CVOL fluctuates near its historical average and market conditions appear more stable. Quant strategy filters CVOL can also act as a regime filter within systematic trading strategies. For example, when implied volatility on EUR/USD, as measured by EUVL, reaches extreme levels, certain algorithms may shift into breakout mode, anticipating strong directional moves in a high-volatility environment. Conversely, when the index shows no abnormal reading, it may reflect a well-balanced market backdrop, offering more orderly conditions where structured strategies such as range trading tend to perform better. As historical data on CVOL indexes are available, quant traders can easily backtest and validate ideas that incorporate volatility-based signals or regime filters. More experienced participants often go further, combining FX implied volatility with other volatility indicators, such as CVOL indexes on interest rate futures, to build multi-asset strategies and monitor cross-asset shifts in risk appetite with greater precision. FINAL THOUGHTS Implied volatility is a powerful lens into market expectations and potential price swings. In FX, although not always directly accessible to retail traders via options, IV data provides essential context for positioning, timing, and risk management. With the advent of CME’s CVOL indexes, traders now have a standardized and transparent way to track and compare implied volatility across currencies. Whether you are a macro trader, hedge fund manager, or informed retail participant, monitoring CVOL brings a distinct informational edge, especially when used to anticipate shifts in sentiment and volatility regimes. And perhaps most importantly: IV doesn’t tell you what happened, but what might happen next, making it an invaluable tool for anyone navigating fast-moving global FX markets. --- When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: tradingview.com/cme/ . This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME:6E1!Education
by satelysfx