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Why Oil Stays Bullish: Israel-Iran and the APMMCurrent geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran have precipitated significant volatility in global oil markets. This study analyzes the immediate and medium-term impacts of the conflict on oil prices utilizing the Advanced Petroleum Market Model (APMM), a multifactorial fundamental analysis framework. The analysis reveals that both robust supply fundamentals and geopolitical risk premiums are currently supporting oil prices at elevated levels. 1. Introduction Global energy markets are experiencing upward pressure from escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. Israeli military actions against Iranian targets have triggered immediate oil price responses, with Brent crude rising up to 10% and reaching the highest levels since January 2024 (Al Jazeera, 2024). The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of global oil trade flows, remains central to geopolitical risk pricing in oil markets (CNBC, 2024). 2. Current APMM Market Assessment The Advanced Petroleum Market Model currently indicates a Bullish (Weak) regime with a composite score of 69.1 and a rising trend. Supply indicators are bullish, inventory and demand are neutral. The model's adaptive status shows it is successfully adjusting to current market conditions. 3. Market and Model-Based Scenario Analysis - Brent Crude: 5-7% increase to over $87/barrel - WTI Crude: 6% daily gain - Geopolitical Risk Premium: $8-12/barrel (Goldman Sachs, 2024) The APMM's current reading suggests oil markets are in a "Fundamental Support Regime" reinforced by geopolitical risk premiums. Geopolitical uncertainty is inherently bullish for oil prices as it increases supply disruption risks and drives precautionary demand. Scenario Probabilities - Base Scenario (65%): Bullish (Weak) regime persists, prices stabilize at $75-85/barrel - Escalation (25%): Strong Bullish regime, prices at $85-95/barrel - Extreme (10%): Extreme Bullish regime, prices above $100/barrel 4. Long-term and Policy Implications - Diversification: Importers seek alternatives to Middle Eastern oil - Strategic Reserves: Governments reconsider reserve strategies - Energy Transition: Geopolitical risks strengthen investments in renewables 5. Conclusion Despite robust supply, oil prices are supported by both fundamentals and persistent geopolitical risk premiums. The APMM reflects this environment with a Bullish (Weak) signal and rising trend. Geopolitical uncertainty remains a key bullish factor for oil markets. References Al Jazeera. (2024). Oil prices spike as Israel strikes Iran amid Middle East tensions. Armstrong Economics. (2024). Oil Prices & the Israel-Iran Crisis - A Historical Perspective. BBC. (2024). Israel Iran: What could conflict mean for oil and gas prices? Chen, S., Liu, P., & Wang, J. (2024). Uncertainty about interest rates and crude oil prices. Financial Innovation, 10(1), 1-28. CNBC. (2024). Oil prices could spike to $95 if Iran-Israel conflict escalates, Goldman Sachs warns. Goldman Sachs. (2024). Commodities Research: Middle East Risk Premium in Oil Markets. Al-Shboul, M., & Alqaralleh, H. (2025). Dynamic Effects of Economic Uncertainties and Geopolitical Risks on Saudi Stock Market Returns. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 18(1), 12.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by EdgeTools
XAU/USD: Next Week's Trend Analysis and Trading SuggestionsI. Global Central Banks' Gold Purchases Continue to Support Long-Term Gold Uptrend For instance, China's central bank has increased gold reserves for 7 consecutive months, India's gold reserve ratio has doubled compared to 2021, and countries like Thailand and Brazil followed suit in May. Central banks' gold buying, driven by reserve structure optimization and geopolitical risk hedging, provides long-term support for gold prices via sustained demand growth. II. Technicals Show Intense Range Battle at $3,400 Key Level Gold prices, after breaking through $3,400, are oscillating near $3,430. Short-term bulls dominate, but $3,450 acts as a significant resistance. The $3,400 level has turned into strong support— a breakdown could trigger pullbacks. While moving averages show a bullish alignment, overbought technical signals warrant correction vigilance. III. Geopolitical Conflicts Escalate Sharply Israel's precision strikes destroyed Iranian nuclear facilities and decapitated high-ranking officials, prompting Iran's immediate retaliation. With multiple Middle Eastern nations now involved, escalating geopolitical risks strongly underpin the rally in gold and crude oil. Conclusion Geopolitical tensions will sustain short-term upward momentum for gold, but investors must monitor Middle East developments and Fed policy shifts. Prudent position management based on risk tolerance is advised, with caution against excessive leverage in volatile markets. Next Week's XAU/USD Trading Strategy buy@3410-3420 tp:3440-3450 I am committed to sharing trading signals every day. Among them, real-time signals will be flexibly pushed according to market dynamics. All the signals sent out last week accurately matched the market trends, helping numerous traders achieve substantial profits. Regardless of your previous investment performance, I believe that with the support of my professional strategies and timely signals, I will surely be able to assist you in breaking through investment bottlenecks and achieving new breakthroughs in the trading field.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by H_C_02
1
Gold eyes $3,485 as bulls take chargeOANDA:XAUUSD is trading within a clearly defined ascending channel, with price action consistently respecting both the upper and lower boundaries. The recent bullish momentum suggests that buyers are in control, indicating the potential for further upside movement. Price has recently broken through a key resistance zone and may pull back for a retest. If this level holds as support, it will reinforce the bullish structure and increase the likelihood of a move toward the 3,485 target, which aligns with the upper boundary of the channel. As long as the price remains above this support area, the bullish outlook remains intact. However, a failure to hold this level could invalidate the bullish scenario and increase the chances of a retracement toward the lower boundary of the channel. The recent surge in gold prices has been driven by the escalating Middle East crisis and a weakening U.S. dollar. Gold recorded its highest weekly close in history at $3,432 per ounce, fueled by concerns over global economic stability and rising demand for safe-haven assets. Analysts have raised their gold forecasts due to the ongoing market uncertainties. Despite the bullish momentum, I believe gold may be entering overbought territory in the near term, indicating a potential for a short-term correction. However, the broader uptrend remains strong, supported by geopolitical tensions, central bank buying activity, and continued investor demand for robust assets.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Jessica_Paul
2
Key pressure range of gold price: 3440-3450Key pressure range of gold price: 3440-3450 At the weekend, let's analyze the macro trend of gold. As shown in Figure 4h. The orange channel clearly and accurately presents the macro trend of gold price in the past year. It is a very interesting price. The current gold price is running around 3450, which is close to the top pressure range of the macro trend. For this reason, we did not hesitate to short in the 3440-3445 range on Friday, and then took profits in the 3430-3425 range. This is the first opportunity to touch the pressure level of the annual trend channel, which is a perfect intraday strategy. Therefore, now we extend the expectation of gold price next week through trend extension and point extension: Expected increase: 3600 Expected decrease: 3250 Current price: 3432 It is very interesting that: (3600+3250)/2=3425 That is to say, the performance of gold price next week will fluctuate in the range of 3420-3430. As geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensify over the weekend, gold prices may continue to benefit from risk aversion next week. It is expected that gold prices will target $3,500/ounce at the beginning of next week. Factors such as the Fed's decision and Powell's speech during the week will also have an impact on gold prices. In addition, US President Trump will visit Canada from June 15 to 17 to attend the G7 summit. His speech at that time may also affect gold price fluctuations, which is worth paying attention to. Intraday operation suggestions: mainly long on dips, supplemented by short at highs; Support level focuses on the 3395-3400 area; Pressure level focuses on the 3440-3450 area. 1: As long as the gold price is above $3,400, the gold price will adopt a low-price long strategy, and the stop loss is set at 3390. 2: As long as the gold price is below 3,450, the gold price will adopt a short strategy, and the stop loss is set at 3,460. Steady operation suggestions: give up shorting and only focus on long opportunities. Radical suggestion: intraday trading, with a profit target of 10 points, both long and short positions can be tried, strictly follow the above 12 strategies
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Isla_Suri
1
Iran vs Israel Conflict: Which assets are being affected?The ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel has had a notable impact on global stock markets and currency pairs, primarily driven by concerns over oil supply disruptions and increased geopolitical uncertainty. Here's a breakdown of the affected assets: Stocks Overall Market Decline: Major global stock indices, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and India's Sensex and Nifty 50, have experienced declines following the escalation of tensions. Negatively Impacted Sectors/Stocks: Airlines & Travel: Companies like United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, American Airlines, and cruise operators (e.g., Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, Carnival Corp.) have seen sharp losses due to surging fuel costs and reduced travel sentiment. Hotel operators (e.g., Hilton, Marriott) and car rental companies (e.g., Avis Budget Group, Hertz) also felt the impact. Consumer Discretionary: Companies tied to discretionary spending and those with high energy-input costs (e.g., General Motors, Ford, Target, Best Buy, Nike) have been negatively affected, as rising oil prices can impact consumer behaviour. Technology & Financials: Broad technology companies, particularly those producing consumer goods, and the financial sector have seen declines. US-listed Israeli Companies: Companies like Check Point Software Technologies, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries, Mobileye Global, and eToro Group experienced drops. Positively Impacted/Benefiting Sectors/Stocks: Oil & Energy: Oil prices surged, leading to gains for energy stocks such as Exxon Mobil, ConocoPhillips, and Diamondback Energy. Defence: Defence contractors like Lockheed Martin, RTX Corporation, and Northrop Grumman have rallied due to increased geopolitical uncertainty. Gold Miners: Shares of gold miners (e.g., Newmont, AngloGold Ashanti) rose as gold prices climbed, driven by safe-haven demand. Renewable Energy/EVs: Electric-vehicle maker Tesla and solar power companies like First Solar and SolarEdge Technologies saw gains, possibly as alternatives to fossil fuels. Currency Pairs Safe-Haven Currencies Strengthen: US Dollar (USD): The US dollar has rallied against most G7 currencies, benefiting from safe-haven flows. Japanese Yen (JPY): The Japanese Yen strengthened as investors sought safety. Swiss Franc (CHF): The Swiss Franc also gained alongside other safe-haven assets. Gold (XAU/USD): Gold prices surged to multi-month highs, trading above $3,400 per troy ounce, reflecting strong safe-haven demand. Risk-Sensitive Currencies Weaken: Euro (EUR/USD): The EUR/USD pair retreated, with the Euro being "hardly damaged" initially but experiencing downward pressure from the escalating conflict. Australian Dollar (AUD) & New Zealand Dollar (NZD): These risk-sensitive Asian currencies weakened. Indian Rupee (INR): The Indian Rupee weakened against the US dollar due to the impact of rising crude oil prices on India, a major oil importer. While the immediate market response has shown volatility and a "risk-off" sentiment, some analysts suggest that the longer-term impact will depend on the conflict's duration and whether it escalates into a broader regional or global issue, particularly concerning oil supply disruptions.
FX:USOIL
by troias
GOLD D1 Chart Shorter Term UpdateHello Traders, Gold D1 Chart just shared with you with crucial zone for now GOLD is facing war scenarios and keep goin in Buy Direction further you may check Israel & Iran War updates time to time for the latest scenarios All eyes on for now 3500 Psychological Level we may expect some selling from 3500 but keep in mind but if war scenarios gets heat up then GOLD will may rise towards 3600/3700 or 3800 Psychological Levels for downside only if market breaks below 3400 Psychological then it will move towards 3350 or even 3300 Psychological Level Disclaimer: Forex is Risky
OANDA:XAUUSD
by forexmoneya
Gold Bullish ContinuationThe decision of the daily and weekly candles to close bullish shows a clear indication of further bullish intentions. As visible on the chart, Price has been ranging after mitigating a 4 hour Fair Value Gap and has stayed within the range. However, since it'll eventually have to make a decision, the possibility of a more upside movement appears to be more likely. Moreover, fundamentally, the rising geopolitical tensions further fuels its bullish fire as the demand for the favorite safe-haven asset increases - Gold. Furthermore, technically visible trading opportunities are visible on the chart - However, we may face a pull back at the Supply zone above current price as the 15 minute chart shows bearish divergence on the RSI. As a result, the occurrence of price making a higher high and the RSI making a Lower High heightens the possibility of a pull back to the Mitigation Block/ RBS (Resistance became Support) Zone of 3384-8867. Should price make a further drop below this level, a deeper fall may be anticipated. Always put your equity first, As tough as trading is, the upside is that opportunities always appear in the market. Don't blow your account and emotional balance on a trade or trade idea, another will come, maybe even better. Manage risks. Wish you success.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by oyemyk
Gold trading strategy june 13Yesterday's D1 candle was bullish, confirming the continuation of the uptrend. Following that uptrend, the Asian session saw a strong price increase to a high of 3443. If there is still confirmation from the h4 candle above 3397, today will still be a bullish candle with a large amplitude at the end of the day. After reaching a monthly high, Gold is in a bearish correction at the end of the Asian session. This correction will last until it touches the support level of 3397, which is a good BUY signal. The target for BUY signals will be 3364 and this area will have a profit-taking reaction from Buyers, causing the price to fall. Gold may touch the pre-ATH level of 3394 and there will be a reaction. On the other hand, there is a sweep to 3376, which is considered a daily support zone and you can buy in this area. Support: 3398- 3376 Resistance 3464-3495
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by VHT_Trader
6
OIL: THE CHART THAT COULD TIP THE WORLDWTI Crude just bounced hard off the $65 channel support, tagging resistance at $76 — and what happens next isn’t just about price. It’s about power. Zoom into this chart: We're sitting at a directional pivot with two possible outcomes: 1️⃣ If this was a truncated 5th wave, the structure is complete. Any further war escalation could be the catalyst for oil to break resistance — dragging down risk assets, including CRYPTOCAP:BTC and equities. 2️⃣ If wave 5 isn’t done, we’ll likely see one more sharp leg down before oil launches. Either way, this is a high-stakes Elliott Wave setup with global macro consequences. Chart with FIB Levels: You'll see the wave I’ve marked (3) is messy, and on lower timeframes, that may hint at a truncated move worth watching. Why this matters: Over 20% of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint controlled by Iran. If conflict escalates, that line gets squeezed… and oil price explodes. Price to watch: $76 resistance. If oil breaks, the markets will react fast. If it fails, we might get one more correction and maybe some relief from the sideways pain we’ve seen across risk assets. Remember the COVID Crash? Oil literally went below zero in April 2020. That wasn't just a chart anomaly, it was a global demand collapse. Traders were paying to get rid of oil because there was nowhere to store it. That moment marked a generational low, and what followed was a powerful multi-year 5 wave up. Now look where we are: That same COVID low helped form the base of the current Elliott Wave structure. The fact we’re back testing levels that once sparked global panic is no coincidence. If you’ve been here before, you’ll see the signs. The charts always leave traces. And if this is the end of wave 5, it could be the start of a whole new macro move. TLDR: Stop trading headlines. Trade the structure. This chart is telling us everything.
CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDE
by LisaNEdwards
Gold: silence on the charts—because the real money already movedThe gold market isn't reacting — it's confirming. The Israeli strikes on Iran? That’s the trigger. But the move started earlier. Price was already coiled, already positioned. All the market needed was a headline. And it got it. Price broke out of the accumulation channel and cleared $3,400 — a key structural level that’s acted as a battleground in past rotations. The move from $3,314 was no fluke — it was a textbook build: sweep the lows, reclaim structure, flip the highs. Volume spiked exactly where it needed to — this wasn’t emotional buying. This was smart money pulling the pin. Technicals are loaded: — Holding above $3,396–3,398 (0.618 Fibo + demand re-entry zone) — All major EMAs (including MA200) are now below price — RSI strong, no sign of exhaustion — Candles? Clean control bars — breakout, retest, drive — Volume profile above price = air pocket — resistance is thin to nonexistent up to $3,450+ Targets: — $3,447 — prior high — $3,484 — 1.272 extension — $3,530 — full 1.618 expansion — key upside target Fundamentals: Middle East is boiling. Iran is ready to retaliate. Israel is already escalating. In moments like these, gold isn't just a commodity — it's capital preservation. The dollar is rising — and gold still rallies. That means this isn’t about inflation, or rates. It’s about risk-off. Pure, institutional-level flight to safety. Tactical view: The breakout is done. Holding above $3,396 confirms the thesis. Pullbacks to that zone? Reloading points. While gold remains in the channel and momentum is clean, the only side that matters right now — is long. When price moves before the news — that’s not reaction. That’s preparation. Stay sharp.
TVC:GOLDLong
by TotoshkaTrades
Gold Extends Rally as New High Emerges📊 Market Overview: Gold reached a new intraday high at $3,447 today, supported by a weaker USD and stable U.S. Treasury yields. Prices then pulled back slightly to $3,423 amid short-term profit-taking. Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and expectations that the Fed may hold or cut rates continue to drive demand for safe-haven assets like gold. 📉 Technical Analysis: Key Resistance Levels: • $3,447 – Intraday high on June 13 • $3,465 – Strong Fibonacci extension resistance • $3,480 – Next upside target if price breaks above $3,447 Key Support Levels: • $3,423 – Current price and intraday congestion zone • $3,410 – Minor support on the H4 chart • $3,400 – Psychological support & 20-day MA • EMA: Price is trading above the 09-day EMA → short-term trend remains bullish • Candlestick / Volume / Momentum: Strong bullish candle with high volume; RSI at 67 indicates further upside potential. Short lower wicks suggest limited selling pressure. MACD on both H4 and daily charts favors continued upside momentum. 📌 Outlook: Gold is likely to continue rising if it holds the $3,410–$3,423 support zone. A break above $3,447 may open the path toward $3,480 or higher. 💡 Suggested Trading Strategy: 🔺 BUY XAU/USD: • Entry: $3,420 – $3,425 • 🎯 TP: $3,480 • ❌ SL: $3,408 🔻 SELL XAU/USD • Entry: $3,445 – $3,450 • 🎯 TP: $3,423 – $3,410 • ❌ SL: $3,457
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mian-FXSignals
Can $ALB Triple Without Lithium Prices Hitting All-Time Highs?🧠 TL;DR Albemarle ( NYSE:ALB ), a global lithium heavyweight, has seen its stock price collapse over 70% from its 2022 highs, closely tracking the decline in lithium spot prices. With lithium carbonate plunging from ~$80,000/ton to under $15,000/ton, many investors assume a rebound in the commodity is a precondition for a meaningful recovery in $ALB. But what if that assumption is wrong? This post explores whether Albemarle can stage a powerful comeback even if lithium prices remain far below their peak. Once lithium bottoms—potentially soon—investors can begin extrapolating annual demand growth and embed those expectations into the share price, setting the stage for a valuation rerating. The headline chart tracks the long-term price relationship between Albemarle and lithium carbonate, normalized and plotted on a logarithmic scale. It shows the synchronized peaks of 2022, the ensuing crash, and where that correlation may have decoupled. While the lithium price collapse has been severe, NYSE:ALB has arguably overcorrected — potentially pricing in a long-term depression in lithium that may never materialize. 🏭 Revenue, Net Income, and Lithium This chart juxtaposes Albemarle's trailing revenue and net income against spot lithium prices. Despite a sharp fall in the commodity, the company posted two successive quarters of profitability, and revenue remains well above pre-boom levels. This resilience suggests: Multi-year pricing contracts offer insulation from spot volatility Cost structure remains profitable even at current prices Demand tailwinds (EVs, grid storage) are still pushing through 📊 Negative Forward P/E, Positive Earnings, and Discount to NAV While forward P/E metrics have dipped into negative territory, this doesn’t tell the full story. The company delivered back-to-back profitable quarters, and the current share price reflects a significant discount to estimated net asset value. The market is currently punishing ALB based on trailing pessimism and collapsing sentiment, rather than forward fundamentals. When lithium prices stabilize, even at mid-cycle levels, investors may reprice ALB based on future earnings potential and hard assets—not backward-looking assumptions. 🔍 Key Takeaways 🔋 Demand Remains Strong EVs, grid storage, and electrification trends are not slowing. Lithium demand is projected to more than triple by 2030. Even modest demand growth off the current base will stretch supply chains, especially if new projects are delayed. 🏗️ Albemarle’s Structural Edge With a relatively low cost of production and long-term contracts in place, ALB is positioned to ride through the downturn. The company has already demonstrated profitability at today's prices. 📉 Valuation Compression = Opportunity At current levels, the stock appears to price in a scenario of sustained low lithium prices and declining demand. But the company’s hard assets, cost advantage, and future demand curve suggest a different reality. 🧠 Final Thought Once lithium prices bottom—maybe relatively soon—investors can begin to extrapolate the rate of annual growth and embed those expectations into the share price, potentially triggering a sharp re-rating before spot prices ever return to their highs.
COMEX:LTH1!Long
by quickshiftinn
Potential Bull Pin Weekly Close on Corn FuturesMight be a bullish close below the yearly open on corn futures. Tariffs can negatively impact prices but maybe some seasonality will drive some higher prices to make a fresh yearly high at some point this summer. There have only been seven years since 1981 that have not seen a summer corn price rally, while several years have seen multiple. Last year was one of the years that did not see a rally, with 2014 being the second most recent. Only once has there even been two consecutive years without a summer rally — 1985 and 1986. Considering the farm program in those years provided an utterly different dynamic, the chances of that happening again seem low. There have been 52 summer rallies over the last 44 years; 14 of those rallies began in the first three weeks of May though June is historically the most common time for a rally to begin.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by Trade_Navigator
XAUUSD TRADING RESULT – JUNE 13, 2025🎯 XAUUSD TRADING RESULT – JUNE 13, 2025 🎯 Following the market analysis from June 9, 2025, XAUUSD has successfully reached the bullish target at 3438.00 on June 13, 2025. The move started with a rejection from Magnet Area (DmH4) 3301.00, followed by a breakout above Magnet Area (SpD) 3357.00 and Magnet Area (SpH4) 3393.00, confirming strong bullish momentum to the upside target. ⚠️ DISCLAIMER: This content is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Trading involves significant risk. Always perform your own analysis and apply proper risk management.
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSDLong
by magnettrader_id