Quick update: I announced #3,400.80 testAs discussed throughout my yesterday's session commentary: "My position: I have waited for Gold to Bottom out near #3,318.80 - #3,322.80 and aggressively Bought the Bottom which delivered spectacular returns (monitoring DX on Selling sequence which added significant Buying pressure). Keep in mind that Gold has #3,400.80 benchmark on the cards now as an decent possibility."
I have announced #3,400.80 benchmark test since #3,350's and even though I expected the upside extension, my Profit margin (over #200k EUR in #3 weeks) was more than enough and I observed Price-action from sidelines.
My position: Gold is Trading on Bullish extension due Middle East crisis escalation. I am looking at my calculated my re-Buy zones to Buy every dip on Gold and continue Scalping (Buy orders only) towards #3,452.80 benchmark potential extension. However if Gold closes the week below #3,400.80 benchmark, Gold will continue ranging and I will alter my perspective (less likely).
Futures market
Oil prices surge amid Middle East turmoil
💡Message Strategy
WTI prices climbed to a nearly two-month high, weighed down by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
📊Technical aspects
From the daily chart level, crude oil's medium-term trend is upward around the moving average system, and the medium-term objective trend is mainly oscillating upward. Oil prices gradually rise to the upper edge of the range.
From the perspective of momentum, the MACD indicator fast and slow lines cross the zero axis upward, and the bullish momentum begins to warm up. The K line closes with a small positive line continuously. If the oil price breaks through the range resistance in the later period, the medium-term trend is expected to further rise and test the 80 line.
The short-term (4H) trend of crude oil fluctuated upward and hit a new high of 70. The moving average system is arranged in a bullish pattern, and the short-term objective trend direction remains upward. The K-line closed with a large real positive line in the early trading, showing an upward main trend.
The MACD indicator opened upward above the zero axis, and the bullish momentum was dominant. It is expected that the crude oil trend will continue to break upward during the day.
💰 Strategy Package
Long Position:70.00-72.20,Target 75.50
Gold Flight to Safety 1. Flight to Safety Supports Gold
Ongoing geopolitical risks — whether from Middle East tensions, rising friction in Asia, or persistent uncertainty in Eastern Europe — are keeping investors on edge. In times of heightened risk aversion, gold remains a go-to asset for capital preservation. This "flight to safety" theme has been a key pillar of support for gold's upward move.
2. Trade Concerns Back in Focus
Renewed trade-related concerns, particularly around U.S.-China relations and global tariff discussions, have reignited fears of supply chain disruptions and global economic slowdown. These macro uncertainties further enhance gold’s appeal as a hedge against economic instability.
3. Fed Rate Cut Bets Offer Tailwind
Market expectations are increasingly pricing in Federal Reserve rate cuts, possibly starting later this year. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, making it more attractive to investors. The dovish tilt in Fed expectations is thus providing an underlying bid for gold.
4. Rebounding US Dollar Caps Further Upside
While fundamental drivers remain supportive, a recent rebound in the US Dollar Index (DXY) is limiting gold’s upside momentum. Since gold is priced in dollars, a stronger USD tends to weigh on demand from foreign buyers, acting as a natural headwind for further gains in XAU/USD.
Trading Implications:
Bullish bias remains intact as long as geopolitical and economic uncertainty persist and Fed rate cut expectations stay on the table.
Watch for key resistance near recent highs; potential profit-taking may emerge if USD strength accelerates.
Near-term support zones include previous consolidation levels and moving averages on the 4H and daily charts.
Important to monitor US economic data and Fed commentary — any shift in rate outlook could cause sharp gold repricing.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 3444
Resistance Level 2: 3460
Resistance Level 3: 3483
Support Level 1: 3377
Support Level 2: 3360
Support Level 3: 3340
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Gold Surges Amid Middle East TensionsGold surged more than 1% to exceed $3,440, approaching record levels amid a sharp rise in safe-haven demand. The gains came after Israel's strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, fueling concerns over a wider regional conflict. Uncertainty surrounding potential US tariffs added to market jitters. Additionally, softer US inflation data increased expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, enhancing gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset.
Resistance is seen at $3,430, while support holds at $3,350.
USOIL || Geopolitical Spike Hits Major Resistance - Watch $77.77🛢️
📅 June 13, 2025
👤 By: MJTRADING
🔍 🧭 Fundamental Context – Risk Premium on the Rise:
Crude oil surged sharply today following reports of Israeli airstrikes on Iranian territory — a move that reawakens fears of broader Middle East escalation. Iran plays a crucial role in OPEC and controls the strategic Strait of Hormuz , through which ~20% of global oil passes.
While Iran has not officially responded yet, markets are pricing in the potential for:
* Military retaliation
* Disruption of oil exports or maritime routes
* Heightened volatility across global risk assets
=======================================================
📉 📊 Technical Structure – Tag of Key Resistance at $77.7:
Price exploded upward, piercing the descending channel that's been intact since mid-2022.
Today's daily wick tagged the $77.70 level, a major horizontal resistance and channel top.
This zone has repeatedly acted as a pivot in both bullish and bearish phases.
Volume confirmed the move – highest daily volume in months, suggesting institutional reaction.
💡 Trading Outlook:
🔼 Scenario A – Breakout & Close Above $77.7 = Bull Continuation
If tomorrow closes firmly above $77.70:
Target 1: $88.88 supply zone
Target 2: $90.00 psychological resistance
Setup: Conservative entries on retest of $75–77 area with tight invalidation
🔽 Scenario B – Failed Breakout → Fade Back Inside Channel
If this was a headline-driven spike with no follow-through, bears may re-enter strongly
A close below $75 could confirm bull trap
Support zone to watch: $66.66 (mid-channel, EMA confluence)
⚠️ Risk Factors to Monitor:
Iran’s response (military, diplomatic, strategic)
US/NATO reaction to potential escalation
Strait of Hormuz disruption
OPEC commentary or Saudi-led output adjustment
Market sentiment unwind (profit-taking from overbought spike)
💬 Markets love emotion, but traders survive with structure. This is not the time to be reckless — size down, be responsive, and respect both breakouts and fakeouts.
📎 #CrudeOil #Geopolitics #OilSpike #WTI #MiddleEastTensions #Iran #IranIsrael #TechnicalAnalysis #MJTRADING
GOLD Will Move Higher! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for GOLD.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 3,423.03.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 3,467.03.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
GOLD|Bullish Momentum Builds in Gold Amid Geopolitical TensionsGold | Market Overview
The escalating conflict, particularly Israel’s attack on Iran, is significantly driving bullish momentum in the gold market. Should Iran respond, we may witness a continued rally toward new all-time highs.
As previously forecasted, gold successfully reached our target of 3431. A short-term correction toward this level is possible before the uptrend resumes. However, if the price manages to close a 1-hour candle above 3431, it will likely trigger a swift move toward 3500 and 3525.
• Pivot Level: 3431
• Resistance Levels: 3480, 3500, 3525
• Support Levels: 3404, 3376, 3366
NATURAL GAS NEAR AT RESITANCE !!This is the 4 hour chart of NaturalGas1!.
Natural Gas is trading near the resistance of an ascending triangle pattern at 325-332 range.
If this level is sustain,we may see pattern support at 285-290 range
If Natural Gas breaks out above the resistance, it may lead to a new high with a potential upside of 33-34% return, targeting the upper boundary of the channel.
If it gives a breakdown, it may form a new low with further downside potential.
Crude Oil - Two Scenarios and about Brain PowerPrice retests the L-MLH.
VI. - Price breaks upward, target is the centerline
VII. - Price reverses again, then the target is the 1/4 line, with a subsequent extended target at the red centerline, and possibly even lower at the white dashed warning line.
On a personal note:
I was once again told that the price didn’t do what I had projected.
...yeah, really, that’s how it is §8-)
After over 30 years in the markets and hundreds of coaching sessions, I’m still amazed that people think you can predict price movements as if with a magic crystal ball.
The fact that this belief still persists (even though they don’t understand even the absolute basics of trading) deeply concerns me at the core of my trading soul.
Because this growing irrationality clearly indicates that far too little is being done in terms of education – or humanity might simply go extinct in the next 100 years due to rapidly declining intelligence!
...maybe I should just create a chart and apply a few median lines/forks?
Happy trading to all of you and I pray for those with lesser brain power.
GOLD PATH TO 3500We see a visible path to 3500 on the xauusd market.
After the breakout at 3400 which extended to 3440's clearing a solid supply zone, gold then had a retracement and rallied back to 3420's which has a solid outlook on the 4hour time frame.
Do not forget that today is friday so dont push the moves .
.......Further breakdown on the lower timeframe
DeGRAM | GOLD reached the resistance area📊 Technical Analysis
● Third rejection of the H1 descending-channel roof (≈3 382) printed a bearish engulfing and confirmed the prior “false-break” spike; price is now back under the purple retest line that acted as supply all month.
● An intraday rising wedge has cracked; its measured leg aligns with the grey targets at 3 344 (minor support) and the 3 289 liquidity pocket near the channel’s mid-rail.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● Firmer US 2-yr yield near 4.8 % after upbeat PPI and hawkish Fed dots lifted the DXY, while CFTC data show fresh trimming of gold longs, reducing dip-buying fire-power.
✨ Summary
Fade rallies 3 335-3 345; sustained trade <3 320 eyes 3 344 then 3 289. Bear view void on an H1 close above 3 350.
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GOLD → Geopolitical risks are driving gold prices up. To ATH?FX:XAUUSD is updating its interim highs as it retests resistance at 3435 amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Economic risks are on the rise...
Gold rose 1.5% on Friday in Asian trading as investors sought refuge from escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. The price approached 7-week highs and could reach $3,500 if the conflict intensifies. The US and Israel have warned of serious consequences, while Iran has promised to respond. Geopolitics has overshadowed economic news, and markets are pricing in the possibility of a Fed rate cut in September.
Technically, the price is emerging from a local consolidation and testing a fairly important resistance level, forming a false breakout and correction. But this does not mean that the price will fall...
Resistance levels: 3425, 3435, 3461
Support levels: 3408, 3400, 3377
If gold consolidates above 3425 and continues to storm the resistance, growth may continue, and at the moment, there is a fairly high probability of a retest of the ATH. However, the ideal scenario would be a retest of the zone of interest 3408 - 3400 and the capture of liquidity before continuing growth.
Best regards, R. Linda!
The situation escalates, and gold rises again.Information summary:
Israel issued a statement: The attack on Iran has been completed. All Israeli Air Force pilots and crew members who participated in the attack on Iran returned to the base unscathed.
Iran issued a statement: The attack could not have happened without the coordination and permission of the United States. The United States is responsible for the consequences of the Israeli air strikes.
The unpredictable international situation has caused the price of gold to continue to rise after retreating.
New forecast:
After a strong rebound in the 3338 shock area and forming a high point, it is currently in a clear upward channel. The recent breakthrough of the 3398.4 area indicates that the trend will continue and point to the resistance line near 3465. At present, the price is testing the trend line that broke above, which may become a springboard for the next round of rise.
Buy trigger point: rebound from near 3405, with strong trading volume.
Risk attention:
The possibility of triggering a false breakout trap near 3440.
If gold loses the 3380-point trend line, its momentum may stagnate.
Broader macro data could overtake technical support near resistance levels.
Oil Market on Edge Any disruption to Iranian oil supply could prompt OPEC to boost output quickly, says ING's Warren Patterson. But there's a limit to how much the cartel can buffer the market—especially if tensions escalate in the Persian Gulf, where most of OPEC's 5M bbl/day spare capacity sits.
🛢️ The Strait of Hormuz is critical—any supply shock here could trigger a global response to secure energy flows.
📈 Crude has spiked after the surprise attack, testing key resistance at $76.90–$80.77 (200-week MA). A break above? Eyes shift to $95. Support? Watch $68.58—200-day MA.
Volatility is back. Keep your eyes on the charts and the geopolitics. 🌍📊
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SILVER (#XAGUSD): Strong Bullish Move Ahead?!It appears we've seen a legitimate liquidity grab following a test of a crucial daily/intraday structure on 📈SILVER.
After a false breakout of the highlighted area, the price rebounded and broke through a significant downward trend line and a minor horizontal resistance on the 4H chart.
I believe the market could stay bullish and potentially reach at least the 36.88 level again.