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Understanding SMT Divergence In Trading1. Definition and Importance SMT (Smart Money Technique) Divergence refers to a trading concept that involves identifying discrepancies between the price movement of correlated markets or instruments. These discrepancies can signal potential market reversals or price manipulation. Specifically, it focuses on the divergence between price movements and indicators (like volume, momentum, or oscillators) in markets that typically move in sync. In SMT Divergence, traders look for situations where two or more correlated instruments (like Forex pairs, indices, or bonds) are moving in opposite directions. This "divergence" signals that there may be a shift in market sentiment, liquidity manipulation, or an opportunity for price correction. The importance of SMT Divergence lies in its ability to detect hidden market dynamics that are often manipulated by institutional players. By understanding these divergences, traders can gain insights into potential market moves and position themselves accordingly. 2. The Relationship Between Correlated Markets Understanding these relationships is crucial for identifying SMT Divergence: Forex Pairs : Many Forex pairs have direct correlations. For example, EUR/USD and USD/JPY are often correlated in the sense that when the USD strengthens, both pairs may exhibit price movement in the same direction (EUR/USD decreases, USD/JPY increases). SMT Divergence occurs when these pairs move in opposite directions, indicating that something unusual is happening in the market (e.g., liquidity manipulation or market anticipation). Indices : Stock market indices (like the S&P 500 or Dow Jones) and related instruments like futures or ETFs can show correlation. A divergence in these indices might indicate potential trends or reversals, signaling that institutions are positioning themselves for a move in one direction, and the market is showing resistance. Bonds : The relationship between bond yields and currency pairs, for instance, can also show correlations. When bond yields move in one direction, certain currency pairs should generally follow suit. Divergence in this relationship can reveal clues about market intentions, such as shifts in interest rates or macroeconomic sentiment. Commodities and Stocks : Commodities like oil and gold can often correlate with indices or specific stocks. For example, if oil prices rise and an energy sector index doesn’t move in the same direction, this could be a sign of market inefficiencies or institutional positioning. 3. SMT Types 3.1. Bullish SMT Divergence Bullish SMT (Smart Money Technique) Divergence occurs when one correlated asset forms a higher low while another makes a lower low. This indicates that one market is showing hidden strength, suggesting a potential reversal to the upside. How to Spot Higher Lows in One Asset While the Other Makes Lower Lows: 1. Identify Two Correlated Markets – Choose two assets that typically move together, such as EUR/USD and GBP/USD or NASDAQ and S&P 500. 2. Look for Divergence – Observe when one asset makes a new lower low, while the other fails to do so, instead of forming a higher low. 3. Volume & Price Action Confirmation – Institutions may absorb liquidity in the weaker asset while the stronger one holds its ground. 4. Validate with Market Context – Look at macroeconomic conditions, liquidity pools, and institutional activity to confirm the setup. 3.2. Bearish SMT Divergence Bearish SMT Divergence occurs when one correlated asset forms a lower high while another makes a higher high. This signals hidden weakness, indicating that the market may be setting up for a bearish reversal. How to Spot Lower Highs in One Asset While the Other Makes Higher Highs: 1. Find Two Correlated Markets – Common pairs include NASDAQ vs. S&P 500 or EUR/USD vs. GBP/USD. 2. Identify the Divergence – One asset makes a higher high, while the other fails to follow and forms a lower high instead. 3. Liquidity & Volume Analysis – Smart money may be using the stronger asset to attract buyers before reversing. 4. Confirm with Institutional Order Flow – Watch for liquidity grabs and imbalance zones. 3.3. Intermarket SMT Definition : Divergence between assets from different markets, such as Forex vs. Commodities, Stocks vs. Bonds, or Indices vs. the U.S. Dollar. Examples : EUR/USD vs. DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) – If EUR/USD forms a higher low while DXY makes a higher high, this suggests USD weakness and potential EUR/USD strength. NASDAQ vs. S&P 500 – If NASDAQ makes a higher high but S&P 500 doesn’t, it can indicate a weakening stock market rally. Strength & Validity : High validity because institutions hedge positions across different markets. 3.4. Intramarket SMT Definition : Divergence within the same market (e.g., multiple Forex pairs or stock indices). Examples : EUR/USD vs. GBP/USD – If EUR/USD makes a lower low but GBP/USD doesn’t, it could indicate bullish strength. Dow Jones vs. S&P 500 vs. NASDAQ – If NASDAQ is making new highs while the Dow lags, it may signal weakness in the broader stock market. Strength & Validity : Still valid but needs additional confirmation (liquidity sweeps, volume analysis). 4. SMT Divergence vs. RSI Divergence Why SMT Is Superior to Traditional RSI Divergences 1. RSI Measures Momentum, Not Liquidity – RSI divergence is based on momentum shifts, which institutions can easily manipulate with fake breakouts or engineered price moves. 2. SMT Focuses on Market Structure & Liquidity – SMT divergence detects institutional positioning by comparing correlated assets, making it harder to manipulate. 3. RSI Can Remain Overbought/Oversold for Long Periods – Markets can continue trending despite RSI divergence, while SMT divergence often provides stronger reversal signals. How Smart Money Manipulates Classic Divergence Traders Liquidity Sweeps – Institutions use RSI divergence to lure retail traders into premature reversals before executing stop hunts. False RSI Signals – In trending markets, RSI divergences often fail, while SMT divergence provides a more contextual view of smart money positioning. 5. Using TradingView for SMT Analysis To effectively analyze SMT divergence, traders should monitor at least two correlated assets simultaneously. TradingView makes this easy by allowing multiple chart layouts. Steps to Set Up Multiple Charts in TradingView: a. Open TradingView and click on the “Select Layout” button. b. Choose a two-chart or four-chart layout to compare correlated assets. c. Sync timeframes across all charts for consistency. d. Adjust scaling to ensure price action is easily comparable. Best Pairs to Compare for SMT Analysis: Forex : EUR/USD vs. GBP/USD, USD/JPY vs. DXY Indices : NASDAQ vs. S&P 500, Dow Jones vs. S&P 500 Commodities & FX : Gold (XAU/USD) vs. USD/JPY Bonds & Equities : 10-Year Treasury Yield vs. S&P 500 6. Key Takeaways SMT divergence reveals institutional intent by showing liquidity accumulation or distribution through correlated assets. Bullish SMT occurs when one asset makes a lower low while the other does not, signaling a potential reversal up. Bearish SMT occurs when one asset makes a higher high while the other does not, signaling a potential reversal down. Best markets for SMT analysis include Forex pairs, indices, commodities, and bonds, where correlations are strongest. SMT is most effective near key liquidity levels, such as session highs/lows, order blocks, and fair value gaps. SMT is more reliable during high-impact news events, London & New York sessions, and quarterly shifts, where institutional activity is highest. SMT is superior to RSI divergence because it reflects real liquidity dynamics, whereas RSI can produce false signals. Combining SMT with market structure shifts like BOS and CHoCH increases trade accuracy and reliability. Risk management in SMT trading requires stop-loss placement beyond liquidity grabs and a minimum 2:1 risk-reward ratio. Mastering SMT helps traders avoid liquidity traps, improve precision, and align with smart money moves. SMT divergence is the footprint of smart money—where one market whispers the truth while the other follows the herd.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by CandelaCharts
Gold Slips After Powell Speech Below 3320 Bearish Pressure BuildGOLD Overview Market Context: Gold declined from the 3333 level, as anticipated in yesterday’s analysis, ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s speech. Powell reiterated that it is still too early for rate cuts, citing persistently high inflation, which supported the U.S. dollar and pressured gold. Technical Outlook: As long as gold trades below the 3320–3310 zone, the bearish momentum is expected to continue, with the next target at 3285. A confirmed break and stability below 3285 could open the way toward 3255. To regain bullish traction, the price must stabilize above 3320. Support Levels: 3285 • 3255 Resistance Levels: 3333 • 3349
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SroshMayi
Silver under pressure!Silver prices dropped sharply following a sudden plunge of over 20% in U.S. copper futures, triggered by a surprise decision from the Trump administration to cancel import tariffs on refined copper. This move caused turmoil in the markets and impacted related assets such as silver. From a technical perspective, silver is trading in a general downtrend on the 4-hour chart, forming lower lows and lower highs, maintaining a bearish structure. If the price rises to the 37.034 level, it is likely to reverse downward to continue the bearish trend, targeting the 36.45 and 35.60 levels in the medium to long term. However, if the price climbs above 37.26 and closes a 4-hour candle above that level, the bearish scenario would be invalidated, and this breakout could signal a trend reversal from bearish to bullish.
CFI:XAGUSD
by CFI
XAUUSD: Market Analysis and Strategy for July 31stGold Technical Analysis: Daily chart resistance: 3351, support: 3250 4-hour chart resistance: 3335, support: 3270 1-hour chart resistance: 3315, support: 3290. Gold was trading sideways between 3320 and 3333 yesterday before the New York market. During the US trading session, the release of US ADP employment figures and PCE price data was bearish for gold, causing it to plummet below Monday's low of 3301. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, and Powell's hawkish speech sent gold plummeting to around $3268. Affected by the news, gold prices fell rapidly yesterday, reaching a low near the lower Bollinger band on the daily chart. It rebounded in the Asian session today, reaching a high near 3315. Selling is recommended in the sideways range between 3310 and 3320. The US PCE data will be released in the New York market, so avoid the news release period. BUY: near 3290 SELL: near 3270
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ActuaryJ
WTI Crude Oil Technical Outlook – Key Breakout or BreakdownWTI Crude Oil 4-hour chart suggests a potential inflection point after a strong bullish breakout from a larger symmetrical triangle pattern in late July. The price surged past key resistance levels and is now consolidating in a smaller symmetrical triangle formation just below the psychological $70 mark. This indicates a phase of indecision following a strong move, with market participants awaiting further confirmation. Price is currently hovering around $69.82, with key levels marked at $71.03 (resistance) and $69.05 (support). The short-term price action within the tight triangle could determine the next move, with both bullish continuation and bearish reversal scenarios on the table. Prices remain supported by supply concerns after Trump threatened to impose 100% secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian crude and warned China, a major oil consumer of severe penalties if it continues its purchases of Russian oil. 🔍 Potential Scenarios - Bullish Breakout Scenario If price breaks out of the smaller symmetrical triangle to the upside and clears the $70 resistance level with strong momentum, it may quickly test the $71.03 zone. A clean break above $71.03 would confirm the continuation of the previous uptrend, potentially opening room toward $72.50 and beyond in the medium term. The pattern would resemble a bullish pennant — a continuation pattern following the late July rally. -Bearish Rejection and Breakdown Conversely, a failure to sustain above $70 followed by a break below the lower boundary of the smaller triangle could lead to a sharper decline. The first critical level to watch would be $69.05; a break below this would likely invalidate the bullish setup and initiate a retest of the previously broken upper trendline of the larger triangle near $67.50. A further breakdown could lead price towards the larger support zone around $65–$66. 📈 Trend Outlook - Short-Term: Neutral to Bullish — Consolidation in a smaller symmetrical triangle suggests a pause before continuation. However, the structure is still technically bullish unless $69.05 is broken. - Medium-Term: Bullish Bias — The breakout from the large symmetrical triangle in late July indicates a shift in market sentiment, favoring higher prices unless the price fails to hold above $67.50. - Long-Term: Cautiously Bullish — As long as WTI holds above the $65–$66 structural support area, the longer-term outlook remains constructive. Note Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
ICMARKETS:XTIUSDLong
by SibiSh
U.S. NATURAL GAS SUCCESSFULLY REBOUNDED FROM FIRM SUPPORT.U.S. NATURAL GAS SUCCESSFULLY REBOUNDED FROM FIRM SUPPORT. Yesterday the natural gas storage report came out higher than expected. U.S. natural gas inventories increased by 48 billion cubic feet last week to 3,123 Bcf, increasing the surplus over the five-year average to 195 Bcf from 171 Bcf the week before, the EIA reports. The storage increase was bigger than the 24 Bcf average for the week, and above the 36 Bcf estimate. However, the price rised on 2.35% afterwards, supported by increased volume, which indicates the strength of the level. The upward movement towards the 3.3000 level is highly expected. Additionally, seasonals suggest us that current prices may become the lowest till the end of the year. Historically, since August the natural gas prices increase in anticipation of a new heating season and higher energy demand (pic2).
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by ProfessorSingapore
XAUUSD 4H – Massive Sell Setup: Gold Crash Incoming? Gold (XAUUSD) just tapped into a key liquidity zone near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $3,364, followed by a sharp rejection. This aligns with the upper channel resistance and a bearish confluence from previous supply zones. Price has failed to break above the dynamic EMA cluster and is showing signs of exhaustion after a relief rally. If momentum follows through, this could mark the beginning of a deeper selloff targeting major downside levels. Short Setup Entry: Around $3,349–$3,364 (rejection zone) SL: Above $3,379 🚨Strong bearish engulfing candle confirms seller pressure 🎯 Take Profit Targets (Fibonacci): TP1: $3,305 (38.2%) TP2: $3,275 (61.8%) TP3: $3,241 (Full move – 100% Fibonacci extension) This setup offers high risk-reward if the rejection holds and price breaks below the mid-zone structure at $3,330. A drop below $3,305 could accelerate the move as liquidity gets swept.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by VisionaryInsights
Elliott Wave Analysis Points to Gold (XAUUSD) Support Near 3320Gold (XAUUSD) appears poised for a double correction from its 16 June 2025 high. A double three consists of two corrective patterns, typically zigzags. From the June peak, wave (W) concluded at 3246.55, and wave (X) rallied to 3438.58, as shown on the 1-hour chart. Wave (Y) is now unfolding lower with internal subdivision as a zigzag. From wave (X), wave ((i)) ended at 3351.17, and wave ((ii)) peaked at 3377.45. Wave ((iii)) declined to 3324.80, followed by a wave ((iv)) rally to 3340.34. The final wave ((v)) completed at 3311.62, forming wave A in a higher degree. A corrective wave B rally reached 3345.35 before gold resumed its downward move. Within wave C, wave ((i)) finished at 3301.47, and wave ((ii)) rallied to 3334.08. Wave ((iii)) dropped to 3267.94, with wave ((iv)) ending at 3314.85. Gold should continue lower in wave ((v)) to complete wave C. The potential target lies within the 100%–161.8% Fibonacci extension from the 16 June high. This projects a support zone between 3104 and 3230, where a three-wave rally is anticipated. Traders should monitor this area for potential reversal signals, as it may offer support for a corrective bounce.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by Elliottwave-Forecast
1
XAUMO XAUUSD (Gold Spot) ANALYSIS | AUG 01, 2025 | CAIRO TIME GMThis is a stealth bullish accumulation day. Market maker completed a fake drop and now prepping breakout. Play long bias from control zone with stop-hunt fade backup. Schabacker would call this a false breakdown spring + congestion base rally. XAUUSD (Gold Spot) ANALYSIS | AUG 01, 2025 | CAIRO TIME GMT+3 🔍 Multi-Timeframe Technical Breakdown (Daily → 5m) 1️⃣ Price Action & Patterns Daily: Bullish rejection tail forming (pin bar) off VAL (3,288). Strong buyer defense. 4H: Classic bullish engulfing off VAL support. High rejection wick to downside. Micro-structure shows market maker trap. 1H: V-shape recovery seen. Absorption bar confirmed via footprint delta spike. 15m: Buyers stepping in at POC (3,289.35), stealthy buying—confirmed by divergence between delta & price. 5m: Accumulation in box range between 3,289–3,292. High absorption on bid side, low offer lifting—sign of stealth long build. 2️⃣ Volume & Delta Footprint POC Cluster across all TFs: 3,289.00–3,291.50 is the control zone. Volume Node Rejection at 3,288 = confirmed buyer base. Delta: Absorption → sellers hitting bids but no follow-through = market maker trap → bullish implication. Volume Spike at 3,288 = fakeout move likely manipulated to hunt stops. 3️⃣ Support/Resistance VAL: 3,288 🔥 Strong Demand Zone POC: 3,289.35–3,291.75 🧠 Smart Money Zone VAH: 3,292.80 🎯 Break above confirms momentum Res. Extension: 3,296.20, 3,300 Fibonacci Confluence: 3,288 = 61.8% golden retracement from recent rally 5️⃣Volatility Compression near VAH = Volatility Expansion imminent. Expect Breakout in next 1–2 hours (likely post 09:00 Cairo Time – Kill Zone) 6️⃣ Market Maker Philosophy Last 3 days show liquidity vacuum trap below 3,288. MM has triggered stop hunts to shake weak longs. Building long inventory stealthily under POC. Expecting rally trap to suck in breakout buyers → then retrace → final breakout continuation. 🧨 JEWEL TRADE ENTRY (Highest Probability) 📈 Order: Buy Stop 🎯 Entry: 3,293.10 🛑 Stop Loss: 3,287.70 💰 Take Profit: 3,302.40 📊 Confidence: 87% 🧠 Justification: Breakout of VAH/Golden Zone + High Volume Node = Trend Shift Confirmed This is for EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE ONLY, and not financial advise.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by ICHIMOKUontheNILE
Gold’s on a Roller Coaster — and We’re Riding It Down🎢 Gold’s on a Roller Coaster — and We’re Riding It Down 🎢 Gold just snapped up like it saw Trump tweet “TARIFFS ARE BACK” — but the move smells like a knee-jerk algo pump, not real conviction. We just rejected right into a thin-volume imbalance zone and tagged the underside of a long-standing trendline. 📉 Short Setup Locked In: 💥 Entry: 3405 🛑 Stop: 3415 🎯 Target: 3353 💰 R:R ≈ 5:1 🔍 Why I'm In This Trade: That rip? Total headline panic, not structural strength. Low volume shelf above, with a massive POC magnet below at 3353. We tapped the Developing VAH (3414) and got rejected — classic trap setup. SQZMOM showing the energy is already fizzling. Green flash, no follow-through. 🧠 The Narrative: Gold’s trying to price in volatility from every angle — Trump talk, tariffs, macro chaos — but under the hood, this pop looks unsustainable. If this is just a liquidity grab, we could see a flush back into the meat of value fast. Grab your helmets — this roller coaster might just be heading downhill 🎢📉
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by JoshuaDanford
Gold Surges on Non-Farm Data; 3330 Key Next WeekGold was strongly boosted by the significantly bullish non-farm payroll data, surging sharply like a rocket 🚀, with gains that completely "wiped out" all the weekly losses. The current gold trend, as if injected with super momentum, has completely broken the previous long-short stalemate. Starting from the 3300 level, it has been breaking through obstacles all the way up to 3350. At present, 3330 is like a critical "battleground" ⚔️ fiercely contested by both long and short sides. This week, when gold was still "lingering" below 3300, I emphasized repeatedly that a rebound was inevitable – we just needed to stay calm and wait for the opportunity. As it turns out, our judgment was spot on, and we successfully took profits around 3340, reaping good gains 💴. Now, gold prices are oscillating back and forth in the 3340-3350 range. Based on a comprehensive analysis of the current trend, I boldly predict that gold is likely to pull back to around 3330 next week, so everyone can prepare in advance 🤗 ⚡️⚡️⚡️ XAUUSD ⚡️⚡️⚡️ 🚀 Sell@ 3350 🚀 TP 3330 - 3320 - 3310 🚀 Buy@ 3300 -3310 🚀 TP 3320 - 3330 - 3340 Daily updates bring you precise trading signals 📊 When you hit a snag in trading, these signals stand as your trustworthy compass 🧭 Don’t hesitate to take a look—sincerely hoping they’ll be a huge help to you 🌟 👇
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Conqueror-
XAUUSD – Demand Zone Reaction & Potential Markup (VSA Analysis)💡 Idea: Gold is testing a major 4H demand zone with early signs of smart money accumulation. VSA signals show supply exhaustion and potential for a bullish reversal toward upper resistance. 📍 Trade Setup: Entry Zone: 3,265 – 3,285 (current demand zone) Target 1: 3,380 – 3,400 (mid supply zone) Target 2: 3,440 – 3,460 (major supply zone) Stop Loss: Below 3,240 (to avoid false breakouts) R:R Potential: ~3:1 📊 Technical Reasoning (VSA) Stopping Volume Detected On the recent drop into the demand zone, a wide spread down-bar on ultra-high volume appeared, followed by no further downside progress. This is a classic stopping volume pattern where professional money absorbs selling pressure. No Supply Confirmation Subsequent candles inside the zone show narrow spreads on decreasing volume, indicating a lack of genuine selling interest. Demand vs Supply Shift Multiple attempts to break below 3,265 have failed, showing absorption of supply and positioning for markup. If price rallies from here on increasing volume and wider spreads up, it would confirm demand dominance. Structure Context This demand zone has historically produced strong rallies. Break above the minor resistance inside the zone could trigger a swift move toward Target 1, with momentum possibly extending to Target 2. 📌 Trading Plan: Look for bullish confirmation bars with high volume before entry. If price breaks below 3,240 on high volume, invalidate the long setup and watch for the next demand level around 3,140. Partial profits can be taken at Target 1, and the remainder trailed toward Target 2.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by coolbouy
1
GOLD TRADING PLAN – Triangle Squeeze, All Eyes on NFP【XAU/USD】GOLD TRADING PLAN – Triangle Squeeze, All Eyes on NFP Gold continues to trade within a large symmetrical triangle, tightening toward the end of its range. However, current candle structure shows clear bullish momentum, indicating the potential for a strong upside breakout. 🔍 Today’s Key Focus: Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Market expectations are pointing to weaker-than-expected US economic data, which could trigger strong FOMO-buying for gold if confirmed. A poor NFP report would likely weaken the USD, supporting bullish continuation. 🔑 Strategy and Key Technical Levels: Watch for a confirmed breakout above the descending trendline to trigger Wave 3 of the bullish structure. CP ZONE + OBS BUY ZONE triggered yesterday already yielded 160+ pips profit. Strategy: Prefer buy-the-dip entries. SELL setups only valid on strong resistance rejection. Avoid counter-trend trades near breakout zones. 🟩 BUY ZONE: Entry: 3276 – 3274 Stop Loss: 3270 Take Profits: 3280, 3284, 3290, 3294, 3300, 3305, 3310, 3320, 3330, 3340, 3350 🟥 SELL ZONE: Entry: 3339 – 3341 Stop Loss: 3345 Take Profits: 3335, 3330, 3325, 3320, 3315, 3310, 3305
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
2
GOLD Bullish Today , Long Scalping Entry Valid To Get 150 Pips !Here is My 15 Mins Gold Chart , and here is my opinion , we finally above 3296.00 and we have a 30 Mins Candle closure above it , so i`m waiting the price to go back and retest this res and new support and give me a good bullish price action to can enter a buy trade and we can targeting 100 to 150 pips . Reasons To Enter : 1- New Support Created 2- Bullish Price Action 3- Bigger T.F Giving Good Bullish P.A .
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by FX_Elite_Club