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Silver coiling price action support at 3600The Silver remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a continuation breakout within the broader uptrend. Support Zone: 3600 – a key level from the previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level. A bullish rebound from 3600 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at: 3756 – initial resistance 3855 – psychological and structural level 3915 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart Bearish Scenario: A confirmed break and daily close below 3600 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward: 3544 – minor support 3480 – stronger support and potential demand zone Outlook: Bullish bias remains intact while the Silver holds above 3600. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:XAGUSD
by TradeNation
Sell NATGAS into OCT/NOVNatalie has fromed a H&S and has broke through all of the supporting EMAs leading to most of the indicators turning bearish. My approach for the forseeable is seeling bounces until the winter season approaches. Of course Natalie is extremely susceptible to trend changes due to economical data and has to be monitored closely. Currenlty I'm a bear. Only selling once it breaks and retests, where I will once again reasses based on economics such as storage, production, imports and demand. Target around $2.5 where interestingly a gap (red rectangle) sits from Nov - 24. Elliot Wave (although not a great fan) kind of aligns as well as the 0.786 fib level which began forming at the beginning of 2024. Storage | Volatility | Price Outlook U.S. natural gas markets are stabilizing as volatility trends back toward seasonal norms. 📉 Volatility has dropped from 81% in Q4 2024 to 69% in mid-2025 🏪 Storage is currently at 3,075 Bcf, 🔻 4.7% lower YoY 🔺 5.9% higher than the 5-year average 🚢 LNG exports remain strong—up 22% YoY and 74% above the 5-year average 🔌 Domestic demand is seasonally weaker but steady ➡️ Despite being below last year’s levels, storage surplus vs. the 5-year average acts as a soft ceiling on price. ➡️ Historical analogs suggest a fair value range between $2.50–$3.20/MMBtu in the short term. 📊 Current price action around $3.00–$3.40 looks slightly overheated unless a fresh catalyst emerges (heatwave, export spike, etc.). 🧭 Watching for: Injection trends over the next few weeks Cooling demand in power sector Resistance around $3.40 Support near $2.80
OANDA:NATGASUSDShort
by SkyTrees
2
Gold Price Target: 3380-3400+, Set a Trailing StopGold Price Target: 3380-3400+, Set a Trailing Stop As shown in Figure 4h: Gold finally rallied this weekend. Despite recent heavy losses for long positions, the past two days have been encouraging. We ultimately managed to successfully buy the dip in the 3280-3300 range and recover all our losses. Gold prices continue to rise, and everyone is asking if it's time to sell. Now is the critical time to exit. We must acknowledge one fact: Gold currently presents a huge opportunity. Of course, the risks are also increasing. At times like these, I always emphasize that the best approach is to set a 10-point trailing stop. Even if gold prices soar, we can move with them. This non-farm payroll data was a huge disappointment. It was a truly positive surprise for gold. The market expected 110,000 new jobs, but the result was a disappointing 73,000, a decrease of half from the previous month. The market went into a tizzy after the outperformance. But even more shocking news is yet to come: Non-farm payrolls for May and June were revised downward by a combined 258,000. This means the June gain was revised downward from 140,000 to 14,000. The May gain was abruptly revised downward from 140,000 to 19,000. The strong data of the past two months was completely false. Market followers have become the "clowns" of the Fed and Trump. Now you understand why everyone praised Powell's hawkish speech two days ago. Because Powell said: "Only if there is a severe decline in employment will we consider cutting interest rates." Just this Wednesday, some good non-farm payroll data was released. This undoubtedly gave the market a false impression. Everyone believed that a rate cut was impossible, and the probability of a September cut had dropped to 40%. However, today's poor non-farm payroll data, combined with revisions to May and June data, revealed the truth. The job market has been dismal over the past quarter. The market reacted quickly, and gold prices soared on this sentiment. My advice is to buy gold at a low price and hold on. For investors who have successfully bought in the 3280-3300 level in recent days, I recommend setting a 10-15 pip trailing stop-loss. Gold prices are likely to continue their upward trend next Monday. Our next target is above 3380-3400 points.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Louisa-2025
NFP Miss Implications: Recession Signal or Rate Cut CatalystCME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:MNQ1! Happy Friday, folks! Today is the first Friday of August, and that means the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) numbers came in at 7.30 am CT. US Non-Farm Payrolls (Jul) 73.0k vs. Exp. 110.0k (Prev. 147.0k, Rev. 14k); two-month net revisions: -258k (prev. +16k). Other key labor market indicators were as follows: • US Unemployment Rate (Jul) 4.2% vs. Exp. 4.2% (Prev. 4.1%) • US Average Earnings MM (Jul) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.2%) • US Average Earnings YY (Jul) 3.9% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 3.7%, Rev. 3.8%) • US Labor Force Particle (Jul) 62.2% (Prev. 62.3%) Data and Key Events Recap: What a year this week has been! It's been packed with high-impact economic data and pivotal central bank decisions, especially from the Federal Reserve. On top of that, trade and tariff announcements have dominated the headline. U.S. economic data this week was broadly strong. Second-quarter GDP came in at 3.0%, beating expectations and signaling solid growth. The ADP employment report also surprised to the upside, printing 104K vs. the 77K forecast. Consumer confidence showed resilience as well, with the Conference Board’s reading rising to 97.2. Inflation data was mixed but mostly in line. Core PCE for June rose 0.3% MoM, while the YoY reading ticked up to 2.8%, slightly above the expected 2.7%. The broader PCE Price Index also came in at 0.3% MoM, with a YoY print of 2.6%, slightly higher than forecast. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% – 4.50%. Notably, Governors Waller and Bowman dissented, favoring a 25-basis-point rate cut as expected, however, marking the first dual dissent by governors since 1993. Changes to the FOMC Statement included a downgraded assessment of economic growth, reflecting slower real consumer spending. The Committee reiterated that uncertainty around the economic outlook remains elevated. It maintained its view of the labor market as "solid" and inflation as "somewhat elevated." Forward guidance remained unchanged, emphasizing the Fed’s readiness to adjust policy as necessary while continuing to monitor risks to both sides of its dual mandate. Here’s a summary of key points from the FOMC press conference: • On current policy stance: “We decided to leave our policy rate where it’s been, which I would characterize as modestly restrictive. Inflation is running a bit above 2%... even excluding tariff effects. The labor market is solid, financial conditions are accommodative, and the economy is not performing as if restrictive policy is holding it back.” Chair Powell commented on the need to see more data to help inform Fed’s assessment of the balance of risks and appropriate Fed Funds rate. • On labor market risks: “By many statistics, the labor market is still in balance... You do see a slowing in job creation, but also a slowing in the supply of workers. That’s why the unemployment rate has remained roughly stable.” • On inflation and tariffs: “It’s possible that tariff-related inflationary effects could be short-lived, but they may also prove persistent. We’re seeing substantial tariff revenue—around $30 billion a month—starting to show up in consumer prices. Companies intend to pass it on to consumers, but many may not be able to. We’ll need to watch and learn how this unfolds over time.” Trade Headlines: US President Trump announced tariffs on countries ranging from 10%-41%. Average US tariff rate now at 15.2% (prev. 13.3%; 2.3% pre-Trump), according to Bloomberg. US officials said that if the US has a surplus with a country, the tariff rate is 10% and small deficit nations have a 15% tariff, US officials said they are still working out technicalities of rules of origin terms for transshipment and will implement rules of origin details in the coming weeks. No details on Russian oil import penalty. Sectoral Tariffs White House said new reciprocal tariff rates take effect on Friday. Although Canada’s tariffs were increased to 35%, excluding USMCA goods, the effective rate is only 5%. The economic data is showing strength, on the contrary, tariffs announcements for most countries have now been announced. Investors need to consider that tariffs are not just a tool to reduce trade deficit, it is also a geopolitical tool presently being used to shape alliances. The US wants to soften BRICS, China and Russian influence on the world stage. Key to note is that these tariffs are substantially lower than what was announced on April 2nd, 2025. The key question now remains, do participants buy the dip or ‘sell the fact’ is the current playbook? Market Implications Given the prior revisions in NFP data of -258K, July’s payroll came in at 73K, missing forecasts of 110K. What does this mean for markets? Markets are now pricing in 75% chance of a September rate cut. Prior revisions along with the current job market slowing down imply that risks to the downside are substantially increasing. Fed’s current policy is not just moderately restrictive but rather it may likely tip the US into a recession if Fed Funds rates remain elevated. The Chair asked to see more data, and here it is but I do wonder why they did not take this data into account for the July meeting. Surely, it would have been available to them. Another question to ask would be, is it due to defiance of rate cut calls by the US administration? Is the Fed already behind the curve? Fed’s dual mandate targets inflation and maximum employment. While inflation is sticky, the Fed may need to abandon their 2% mandate in favor of average inflation of 2.5% to 3%. A less restrictive policy will provide needed stimulus along with the fiscal stimulus provided via the BBB bill. This drastically changes, in our analysis, how investors position themselves heading into the remainder of the year. Markets (equities) may retrace slightly but the dip in our opinion will still be the play given weaker labor market data and increased rate cut bets. The bad news here means that the Fed has the data it wants to see to start cutting. Market pricing in 2 cuts seems to be the way forward for now.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by EdgeClear
XAGUSD Technical Outlook (Silver/USD)Currently, Silver is trading inside a symmetrical triangle formation , signaling a potential breakout. Upside Scenario: A breakout above 36.80 resistance may trigger strong bullish momentum. The next target zone lies at 37.18 – 37.30, which is a relatively weak resistance and could potentially form a Head and Shoulders pattern . If momentum continues, Silver could extend gains toward 37.75 and 38.00 resistance levels. Downside Scenario: If the triangle breaks to the downside, we may see a short corrective move toward 3 6.25 – 36.20 support zone before any possible rebound. Overall, the chart structure currently favors an upside breakout with continuation toward higher resistance zones.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by SaklainManzoor
1
GOLD falls sharply, fundamental analysis and technical positionOANDA:XAUUSD fell sharply below the $3,300/oz price level as Chairman Jerome Powell did not signal any rate cuts at his next press conference on September 16-17. He only said that “no decision has been made on September” and that “more data will be evaluated in the coming months.” Economic data undermined the case for a rate cut, while geopolitical play remained a potential support. The Fed and Interest Rates The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged for a fifth straight meeting on Wednesday, defying persistent pressure from President Donald Trump and White House officials. However, two members of the central bank's board dissented, a rare move in three decades that underscored growing divisions within the central bank over the impact of Trump's tariff policies. At the meeting, the Fed kept its benchmark federal funds rate in a range of 4.25% to 4.5%, in line with policy through 2025. Last fall, the Fed cut rates by a total of 100 basis points. However, Federal Reserve Board Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman opposed cutting interest rates by another 25 basis points, marking the first time since Alan Greenspan in 1993 that two board members have opposed a majority resolution at a meeting. At the press conference, Chairman Jerome Powell did not signal a rate cut at the next interest rate meeting on September 16-17, saying only that “no decision has been made about September” and that “more data will be evaluated in the coming months.” Powell also noted that despite Trump’s call for a sharp 3% rate cut to reduce interest costs on US debt and stimulate the housing market, the Fed will continue to monitor the longer-term impact of tariffs on the path of inflation and economic recovery. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September fell to 47% in Powell's speech. Economic data ADP jobs data beats expectations and is bearish US ADP payrolls jumped 104,000 in July, beating market expectations of 75,000 and marking the biggest gain since March. The data showed continued strength in the labor market, reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s stance on keeping interest rates high. Meanwhile, the preliminary estimate of annual GDP growth in the second quarter came in at 3% (2.4% expected), and the core personal consumption expenditures price index rose 2.5% year-on-year (2.3% expected), indicating both economic resilience and inflation stability, further weakening expectations for a rate cut. Keep an eye on the ISM manufacturing PMI and non-farm payrolls data on August 1. If the jobs numbers continue to be strong, this could reinforce the Fed’s dovish stance. Geopolitical and Policy Plays News of a 90-day extension of the US-China tariff deal has eased some safe-haven demand, but Trump’s August 8 deadline for a new Russia-Ukraine deal, coupled with tensions in the Middle East, continue to provide potential support for gold. Continued purchases by central banks (such as China and India) are a positive signal in the medium to long term, but are unlikely to offset short-term pressure from the Federal Reserve’s policies. Technical outlook for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has been sold below the $3,300 level and now the $3,300 level has become the nearest resistance at present. For now, gold will be limited by the area of ​​the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement with the original price point of $3,300, along with that it has formed a short-term downtrend with the price channel, the next target will be around $3,246 in the short term followed by the Fibonacci retracement level noted with readers in previous publications. On the momentum front, the Relative Strength Index is operating below 50 and is far from the oversold zone (20-0), indicating that there is still plenty of room for downside ahead. In addition, the gold trend will also be pressured by the EMA21, as long as gold remains below the EMA21, the current technical conditions continue to favor the downside. For the day, the technical outlook for gold is bearish with notable positions listed as follows. Support: 3,246 – 3,228 USD Resistance: 3,300 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3345 - 3343⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3349 →Take Profit 1 3337 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3331 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3240 - 3242⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3236 →Take Profit 1 3248 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3254
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
3
How to maintain stable operations before NFP dataYesterday, gold closed the month with a long upper shadow doji candlestick, indicating strong upward pressure, with monthly resistance at 3439-3451. Today marks the beginning of the month, and with the release of numerous data indicators such as NFP, unemployment benefits, and PMI, there is considerable uncertainty, so intraday trading should proceed with caution. Judging from the daily chart, the current MACD indicator is dead cross with large volume, and the smart indicator is running oversold, indicating a low-level fluctuation trend during the day. At present, we need to pay attention to the SMA60 moving average and the daily middle track corresponding to 3327-3337 on the upper side, and pay attention to the intraday low around 3280 on the lower side. The lows of the previous two days at 3275-3268 cannot be ignored. There is a possibility that the low-level oscillation will touch the previous low again. From the 4H chart, technical indicators are currently flat, with no significant short-term fluctuations expected. Low-level volatility is expected to persist within the day. Then just focus on the support near 3275 below and the middle track pressure near 3307 above. Looking at the hourly chart, gold is currently oscillating below the mid-range band, with resistance at 3295-3307 to watch in the short term. Overall, the market is expected to remain volatile before the release of today's data. Based on Wednesday's ADP data, this round of data is also expected to be around $100,000. The contrast between ADP and NFP last time deserves our caution. The current market is basically optimistic about the short-selling situation, which is exactly what I am most worried about. If the gold price can stabilize above 3,300 before the NY data, the possibility of NFP data being bullish cannot be ruled out. Intraday European trading suggestion: if the current gold price falls back to 3285-3280 and stabilizes, you can consider short-term long positions, with the target at 3295-3305. If the gold price tests the low of 3275-3268 again and does not break through, you can consider a second chance to go long. After making a profit of $10-20, you can consider exiting the market with profits. The market is volatile and unstable, so be sure to bring SL with you and pay close attention to the impact of the NFP data. Conservative investors can enter the market after the data is released.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by HuntingWolves
XAUUSD – Demand Zone Reaction & Potential Markup (VSA Analysis)💡 Idea: Gold is testing a major 4H demand zone with early signs of smart money accumulation. VSA signals show supply exhaustion and potential for a bullish reversal toward upper resistance. 📍 Trade Setup: Entry Zone: 3,265 – 3,285 (current demand zone) Target 1: 3,380 – 3,400 (mid supply zone) Target 2: 3,440 – 3,460 (major supply zone) Stop Loss: Below 3,240 (to avoid false breakouts) R:R Potential: ~3:1 📊 Technical Reasoning (VSA) Stopping Volume Detected On the recent drop into the demand zone, a wide spread down-bar on ultra-high volume appeared, followed by no further downside progress. This is a classic stopping volume pattern where professional money absorbs selling pressure. No Supply Confirmation Subsequent candles inside the zone show narrow spreads on decreasing volume, indicating a lack of genuine selling interest. Demand vs Supply Shift Multiple attempts to break below 3,265 have failed, showing absorption of supply and positioning for markup. If price rallies from here on increasing volume and wider spreads up, it would confirm demand dominance. Structure Context This demand zone has historically produced strong rallies. Break above the minor resistance inside the zone could trigger a swift move toward Target 1, with momentum possibly extending to Target 2. 📌 Trading Plan: Look for bullish confirmation bars with high volume before entry. If price breaks below 3,240 on high volume, invalidate the long setup and watch for the next demand level around 3,140. Partial profits can be taken at Target 1, and the remainder trailed toward Target 2.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by coolbouy
1
Potential bearish drop?The Gold (XAU/USD) has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support. Pivot: 3,306.31 1st Support: 3,239.07 1st Resistance: 3,357.09 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by ICmarkets
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD August 1, 2025📊 ________________________________________ 🔍 Momentum Analysis: • D1 Timeframe: Momentum has reversed to the upside. Based on this signal, we expect a bullish trend to continue for the next 5 daily candles — likely until mid-next week. • H4 Timeframe: Momentum has also turned upward → This suggests that from now until the U.S. session, the price will likely continue to rise or consolidate with an upward bias. • H1 Timeframe: Momentum is currently turning down → We anticipate a short-term corrective move. We should wait for H1 to enter the oversold zone and give a bullish reversal signal before looking for long entries. ________________________________________ 🌀 Wave Structure Analysis: The current wave structure remains complex and lacks clear confirmation. Thus, the current wave labeling should be considered provisional. However, the wave count has not been invalidated, and D1 momentum supports a bullish outlook — so we continue to maintain our wave structure bias. Important Note: Wave (C) in red appears relatively short. This leaves open the possibility that the price may continue lower, targeting: • ⚠️ 3246 • ⚠️ 3200 → This scenario will be triggered if price breaks below 3268, especially given today's Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) report. ________________________________________ 📌 Two Possible Wave Scenarios: 1. Scenario 1: Black Waves 1 – 2 – 3 o Wave 1 (black) is complete. o We are now in Wave 2 (black) → Preparing for Wave 3. o Wave 3 tends to be strong, impulsive, and sharp with large candle bodies. o Target: 3351 2. Scenario 2: Black ABC Correction o The market is currently in Wave B (black). o Potential target for Wave C: 3328 ________________________________________ 🛡 Support Zones & Trade Strategy: • Support Zone 1: 3290 → A good area for potential buying, but we must wait for H1 to enter the oversold region and show a bullish reversal. • Support Zone 2: 3275 → Deeper buy zone if the price corrects further. ________________________________________ 💡 Trade Plan: 📍 Option 1 – Buy Limit: • Buy Zone: 3290 – 3289 • Stop Loss: 3280 • Take Profit 1: 3309 • Take Profit 2: 3328 • Take Profit 3: 3351 📍 Option 2 – Buy Limit: • Buy Zone: 3275 – 3273 • Stop Loss: 3265 • Take Profit 1: 3309 • Take Profit 2: 3328 • Take Profit 3: 3351 ________________________________________ 📎 Notes: • Experienced traders should wait for clear confirmation signals on H1 before entering trades. • New traders may consider using limit orders in the proposed buy zones.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WavePoint_FX
XAUUSD – Smart Money Sell Setup during New York Session | ICT St Gold (XAUUSD) has just completed a classic liquidity grab above the London session highs, forming a potential Judas Swing as New York begins. On the 4H timeframe, we clearly have a bearish BOS (Break of Structure), and price has returned to a Premium zone within a bearish FVG and OB (Order Block). Today is NFP Friday, and after the Fed kept rates steady mid-week, we’re expecting high volatility. Current price action has swept the overnight liquidity and is now reacting inside a Repricing Block, aligning perfectly with the NY Midnight Open level. 🎯 My Sell Plan (Live Execution): Sell Limit: 3306.50 SL: 3317.50 (Above OB high) TP1: 3281.20 TP2: 3268.50 TP3: 3253.90 🧠 Bias: Bearish 🕒 Session: New York 🧮 ADR: 43 pts 📉 Market Structure: Bearish This setup follows the ICT methodology using time, liquidity, structure, and displacement. If we break above 3317.50 with strong displacement, the idea becomes invalid. Let's see if Smart Money takes it down into Friday’s close.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by general_rami81
Gold rebound is weak, short below 3315 Gold remains weak, with multiple intraday rebounds failing to maintain momentum. The upper moving average continues to suppress the market, and the short-term market remains dominated by bears. Today, we are following the trend and taking a bearish stance. The key upside level is around 3315. If it reaches this level before the US market opens or if it peaks in the short term, we will short sell. The non-farm payroll data will be released today, and we will consider reversing our direction based on the situation after the data. Gold prices have once again encountered resistance to their upward trend, and the volatile pattern continues. The gold price trend is trending lower highs, and today's low is expected to be lower than yesterday's. Therefore, our intraday short target could be 3268 or even lower, so it's crucial to seize the right entry point. If you're new to the market, come to me. I'll teach you how to trade while you learn. If you're already in the market and struggling, come to me. I'll help you avoid repeating the same mistakes. If you've already experienced this market and are battered, come to me. I'm confident I can help you regain confidence. If you're stuck in a position, I'll develop a strategy tailored to your entry point. Because everyone's trapped positions are different, the solutions will vary, some suitable for conservative traders and others for aggressive ones. However, I can't offer a perfect answer to every situation. I suggest you bring your order with you. Once you contact me, I'll use the most appropriate method to resolve your situation and help you exit the market. Specific Strategy Short gold at 3315, stop loss at 3325, target at 3280
TVC:GOLDShort
by jiqeu1