S&P 500 Obeying Elliott Wave TheoryThis is an update of a previous publication. A Flat occurred for Wave 2(Green) and if Wave 3 is over, we can expect a Zigzag for Wave 4. Zigzags have 3 waves. A confirmation at its current location will trigger a sell for Wave 4(Green).
For more information on the same, go to:
Market indices
A pullback planThe upper trendline starts from Jan 2022 peak. It was broken on normal scale but still holds on log scale. The price may top here or may go higher. In a very bullish scenario the price may bounce much higher from an upper 1W FVG, but I think it will be broken soon. In any case I see a strong support at 6050-6150 area - a horizontal support and 1M/1W FVG are there. The price should return there sooner or later. No negative daily RSI divergence at the moment, but the price can make 4% correction on 2-4h divergence, which will appear at any new ATH. I gonna hold and increase my short position with low leverage untill the price makes a pullback into this area.
DXY Just Broke Through the Lock… Where’s the Market Headed Now?🌅 Good Morning, Friends!
A few days ago, I marked 98.950 as a key threshold for the DXY index. As of today, that level has officially been broken—and the bullish momentum we anticipated is now kicking in. 📈
The next target? 101.000.
That said, it’s crucial to remember: DXY is heavily influenced by fundamental data. Stay alert and keep a close eye on key economic developments—they’re essential for navigating this move.
This breakout validates the analysis I shared with you all. And it wasn’t just about charts—it was about discipline, precision, and timing.
Every single like from you is a huge boost to my motivation. Thanks from the heart—your support drives me to keep sharing these insights! 💙
Correction Ahead? SP500 Prints Reversal Signal at Key Resistance📘 This market moves like a textbook chart
SP500 is acting like a perfect case study from a trading manual. Back in early April, the index dipped just below 5,000, right into a confluence support zone ( I had spoken about this at the time ) – formed by the long-term ascending trendline and the 2022 all-time high. Just like other U.S. indices, the market reversed aggressively from that area.
🚀 A 30% rally in 4 months
From that low, SP500 rallied around 30% in just four months. An incredible move that brought the index straight to the upper boundary of the yearly rising channel.
🕯️ Bearish signal at the top
And just like in NAS100’s case , the index printed a strong Bearish Engulfing candle exactly at that resistance level. This kind of signal, after such a rise, shouldn’t be ignored.
📉 A correction is not only probable – it’s needed
A pullback from here is not just likely, but in my opinion, healthy and necessary . Short-term speculators could look for a move toward the 6,150 zone, which would already offer decent room for profit.
🔍 What if it goes deeper?
I wouldn’t be surprised to see a correction down to 5,750–5,800. That’s about a 10% decline, which wouldn't even classify as a bear market, just a normal reset after a euphoric rally.
🧠 Perspective matters
In a market that gained 30% in four months, a 10% correction is not a crash — it’s discipline being restored.
Disclosure: I am part of TradeNation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
NIFTY50.....Miss a final sell-off! Part IIHello Traders,
the NIFTY50 is on track with my forecast! It declined over the course of the week to a level of 24565 points - a loss of almost 271 points, (nearly 1.09%).
The question is, if N50 is declining lower in the coming week. The question is, to what degree will it decline ?
Chart analysis:
Today, I'd like to show you another idea of the count. Here, at the level of 25669, a wave (v), green, has been established, and the following correction is a wave (iv), pink, to the level I have mark with the sky blue rectangle. This rectangle ranges from 24473 to 23934.90. If we reach these levels, wave (iv), whether of wave ((iv)) or wave (iv), should end!
In either case, there is more downside potential and has more room to go, and is not finished yet.
The first sign, that something went wrong would be at the point, when the high @ 23368, wave (i), green, were to be touched! This is because it is not permitted for a wave (iv) to touch the high of any degree of wave (i).
The indicators, too, have much room to decline for the rest of the week.
So, it will be exiting to watch how the market will makes its decision.
Have a great weekend.....
Ruebennase
Please ask or comment as appropriate.
Trade on this analysis at your own risk.
Warning: SPX500 May Have Peaked—Here’s What the Charts SayThe S&P 500 (SPX500) may have reached its peak. In this video, I reveal the technical evidence pointing to a potential reversal—including monthly bearish divergence, daily and weekly reversal candles, and confirmation from key indicators.
This isn’t just noise—these signals align across timeframes, suggesting a shift in momentum that could lead to significant downside. I’ll walk you through the charts, explain the implications for traders and investors, and highlight critical support levels to watch.
Thank you for watching and have a great trading week. Cheers!!
S&P500 corrective pullback key support at 6200Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6316
Resistance Level 2: 6374
Resistance Level 3: 6430
Support Level 1: 6200
Support Level 2: 6112
Support Level 3: 6073
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
OEX /SPX Bullish wave 5 pattern crossroads The chart posted is the sp 100 I am posting it as we are now at the crossroad for bull or bear count .We have rallied to .786 as I will show and have a wave a x 1.27 = c at the .786 High But if we break above 5922 in the Cash SP 500 There is NOTHING to stop it from reaching a target of 3005 in the OEX where wave A up or wave 1 x 1.618 = wave C Top or wave 3 in the SP 500 WAVE A or WAVE 1 up 5481 - 4835 = 646 x 1.618 =1045 plus wave B low or wave 2 5102low= 5102plus 1045 =6147.22 The exact high . This is the reason I took the loss and moved LONG .Best of trades WAVETIMER
SP500 → Countertrend correction before growthFX:SPX500 is correcting against an upward trend. In the second half of the week, the market received fairly positive fundamentals during the reporting period.
S&P 500 futures found support after strong reports from Meta and Microsoft, which exceeded earnings expectations and forecasts thanks to AI. The rise in futures supported demand for the “Magnificent Seven” despite Powell's hawkish comments. The focus is on Apple and Amazon reports in the evening, which could strengthen the tech rally. On Friday, we are seeing a countertrend correction in which the market is testing the 6288 zone of interest.
Support levels: 6288.4, 6262.6
Resistance levels: 6342, 6371
Most likely, the market will form a false breakout of support during the correction. If the bulls keep the index above the key level, we can expect continued growth in the short and medium term.
Best regards, R. Linda!
NFP Volatility Ahead – Is the Dollar Ready to Break Higher?🟢 DXY Outlook – A Key Day for the Dollar Index
Yesterday’s monthly candle closed with strong bullish momentum, marking a powerful start to August. Today, on the first trading day of the month, we’re expecting three major U.S. economic releases:
NFP, Average Hourly Earnings (m/m), and the Unemployment Rate.
As discussed in last week’s outlook, DXY has successfully broken above the key 100 level and confirmed a monthly close above it — a significant technical development. With no major order blocks or visible resistance in the way, the path toward the 102 target appears technically clear.
That said, I anticipate mixed data from today’s releases — which means we could see both sides of liquidity being taken during the initial reaction. Price might dip toward lower zones temporarily to collect liquidity before resuming its bullish move toward 102.
📌 In summary:
From a swing perspective, I believe the direction remains bullish for the Dollar Index as long as we hold above the 100 level.
When I say the data might be “mixed,” I mean the market could show an initial drop toward lower zones at the time of release — not because of a reversal, but to grab liquidity before continuing higher toward the 102 target.
Unless we see something unexpectedly extreme in the numbers, I expect the DXY to remain on track to reach the 102 level in the coming days or next week.
🔁 This analysis will be updated whenever necessary.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Just my personal opinion.
Dow Jones Triple Top & Critical Trendline Break - Buy The Dip?Potential Tripple Top formation spotted on the Dow. This would represent a full fibonacci retracement, which leads me to believe a 38.2 retest is likely. If this 23.6 level can hold support and price does not close below the fib band (orange channel), then the bullish continuation to new all time highs can still happen in Q3/Q4 of this year. The clear trendline break dating back to April is very concerning (white line), leading me to believe more downside in the coming weeks.
Let me know what you think in the comments!
Thanks
The worst drops often come later!Don’t be fooled by the first crash… The worst drops often come later in a bear market.
Let’s break down the brutal truth about the 2008 GFC and what it teaches us today. 🧵
1.
In the 2007–2009 bear market, the S&P 500 had 7 failed rallies before finally bottoming.
Every bounce looked like the bottom — and every one was a trap.
👇
2.
The early drops were steep:
🔻 Down 11%
🔻 Down 17%
But the most violent crashes came after those…
Near the END — not the beginning — of the bear market.
3.
Later stage declines:
❌ Down 28%
❌ Down 36%
❌ Down 29%
That’s when capitulation kicked in.
Investors gave up. Fear took over.
4.
Capitulation volume isn’t a guaranteed bottom.
It feels like it’s over.
But if fundamentals haven’t turned and the trend isn’t broken, the bear can still bite — hard.
5.
Final crashes are like cliffs:
Markets are exhausted.
Hope is crushed.
And that’s finally when the real bottom shows up.
6.
The lesson?
Bear markets are full of traps.
Relief rallies can fool even seasoned pros.
Stay patient. Wait for trend confirmation. Don’t chase fake bottoms.
7.
📉 The biggest crashes usually happen at the end of the bear market.
That’s the final flush — and it sets the stage for true opportunity.
Learn from the past. Don’t get trapped. Stay sharp.
NAS100 Trade Idea: Liquidity Sweep & Bullish Reversal Potential📊 NASDAQ 100 (NAS100) Trade Outlook 📈
The NASDAQ 100 is holding a strong bullish trend on the higher timeframes 🟢. However, we’re currently seeing a notable pullback into a key support zone ⚠️ — price has dipped beneath previous lows, tapping into what appears to be an institutional accumulation range 🏦.
This move is likely targeting the liquidity resting below those lows 💧, where sell stops are positioned. Price is also reacting off a significant bullish order block 🧱 — a confluence area that could produce a strong reversal.
🎯 What to look for next:
Wait for a bullish break in market structure 🔁 to confirm a potential entry. If that occurs, consider a long setup with your stop loss below the swing low 🛑 and a 1:2 risk-to-reward target 🎯.
🚫 This is for educational purposes only and not financial advice.
S&P 500 Bullish Rounding Bottom in PlayS&P 500 continues its upward trajectory, supported by a clearly defined rounding bottom formation. Price has successfully broken above the neckline resistance, followed by a technical pullback which was met with a strong buy reaction, validating this zone as a key demand area.
This pullback area now acts as a critical structural base and the current bounce reinforces bullish continuation bias. The active plan is to accumulate within the buy-back zone and follow the path laid out in the chart towards the projected upside targets.
Drop your stock requests in the comments for a quick analysis, only US-listed stocks will be reviewed under this post.
NIKKEI: Strong Bullish Momentum Driven by Favorable IndicatorsData analysis indicates a "Bullish" bias for the NIKKEI, with a strong overall score. This positive outlook is supported by a confluence of factors, including Commitments of Traders (COT) data, retail positioning, seasonality, and trend. While some economic data points show neutrality or slight negativity, the overriding sentiment and key technical factors suggest a continued upward trajectory for the NIKKEI.
Key Supporting Factors (Bullish):
Strong Technicals/Momentum: The "Trend" and "Seasonality" scores of 2 each suggest strong underlying bullish momentum and favorable seasonal patterns for the NIKKEI.
COT & Retail Positioning: Positive scores in "COT" and "Retail Pos" (both 2) often indicate that institutional money and retail traders are aligned in a bullish direction, providing a strong foundation for upward movement.
GDP, SPMI, Retail Sales: These economic indicators, with scores of 1, are contributing positively to the overall bullish bias, indicating healthy economic activity.
US500: Rebound Setup After Sharp Pullback – Key Support HoldingUS500 has experienced a strong corrective move after an extended bullish run but is now showing signs of stabilizing near a key support area. This zone aligns with both technical retracement levels and the market's reaction to fundamental shifts—particularly the dovish repricing of the Fed following weak US jobs data.
Technical Analysis (4H Chart)
Pattern: After a strong uptrend, price faced a steep correction, forming a potential short-term reversal setup.
Current Level: 6,235, holding above the 6,217 support zone.
Key Support Levels:
6,217 (immediate support; key defense zone for bulls).
6,171 (38.2% retracement, secondary support if deeper pullback occurs).
Resistance Levels:
6,272 (23.6% retracement and initial resistance).
6,360 (upper resistance zone and retest of recent breakdown).
6,429/6,436 (recent high and target if bullish momentum resumes).
Projection: A rebound from current levels could push US500 back toward 6,360–6,430 if support holds.
Fundamental Analysis
Bias: Neutral-to-bullish as macro drivers favor a recovery from pullback.
Key Fundamentals:
Fed Policy: Weak US jobs (+73K) and downward revisions have solidified rate cut expectations (~75% probability in September), boosting equity sentiment.
Inflation: Market awaits US CPI; softer data would further support equities.
Tariffs: While Trump’s tariffs create a medium-term risk for earnings, immediate Fed easing bets outweigh these concerns.
Risk Sentiment: Global risk remains supported by lower yields and optimism about Fed easing.
Risks:
Hot US CPI could reverse cut expectations, pressuring equities.
Geopolitical risks or tariff escalation could trigger renewed selling.
Key Events:
US CPI and PPI.
Fed speeches and rate expectations.
Earnings reports from key US companies.
Leader/Lagger Dynamics
US500 is a leader, driving global risk sentiment and influencing risk-sensitive assets like AUD/USD, NZD/USD, and JPY crosses.
Summary: Bias and Watchpoints
US500 is neutral-to-bullish, stabilizing at key support (6,217) after a sharp correction. Fed cut expectations and risk-on sentiment support the upside scenario, targeting 6,360–6,430 if US CPI aligns with softer inflation. However, a hot CPI print could invalidate this rebound and trigger another leg lower.