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SPX Expansion with Historical DataGood morning everyone! This week I wanted to elaborate more on my previous idea of SPX with the historical data that led to this analysis. This is almost all fundamental analysis adding in the retracement percentages which can also be evaluated through some technical instruments. Unemployment rate is currently at 4.1%, with inflation at 2.4%. Based on the data, it is evident the market is currently in an expansion period which is why the narrative that we will see 2 interest rate drops by the end of year continues to diminish. I think we will probably see 1 before the year ends and that would just fuel the market and gain momentum to the upside. If we were to measure the expansion of SPX going back to the 2000's, we get an extension of at least 75%. If we were to extend 75% based on the previous swing high (6,147) we could see future SPX price at 8,500. Now, do your own research, but the data is here. I expect the market to possibly retest previous high, but if you did not enter during the dip, no worries. There is still plenty of upside potential and better late than never. Remember... CASH FLOW IS KING! Avoid all the noise and distractions. The job of many platforms out there is to have something to put out for the public EVERYDAY! A good amount of that is noise. Look for macroeconomic news and let that be your indicator. Historical Data: (1) .com Bubble (2000 - 2002) We had a 50% drop of SPX. This lasted for almost 2 years before recovery. (2) Housing Market (2007 - 2009) The SPX dropped 57% due to the collapse of subprime lenders collapsing. Housing prices decline drastically leaving people with high mortgage payments than what their homes are actually worth leading to a wave of foreclosures. (3) Covid (2020) This was a global event with government mandated shutdowns causing the entire financial markets to come to a halt. Many business closures that led to jobs loss with an unemployment rate of approximately 15%. (4) Inflation & Rate Hikes (2022) When Covid happened, upon recovery market expanded way too fast causing inflation to rise and the Feds to increase interest rates to slow down the economy. (5) Tariffs (2025) Will stay away from politics on this one, however, a rebalancing of trade has taken place with some countries still working on tariff deals with the U.S. This has caused huge uncertainty for companies and corporation. VIX (fear index) reached 60.13. Hope you enjoyed this post. Have a great rest of your week, don't forget to like and follow and Happy Trading!
SP:SPXLong
by DualScope_Strategies
4
DXY 4Hour TF - July 6th, 2025DXY 7/6/2025 DXY 4hour Bearish Idea Monthly - Bearish Weekly - Bearish Dailly - Bearish 4hour - Bearish All timeframes are suggesting we are sitll very much bearish. Going into this week we can spot two scenarios that will consider DXY either bullish or bearish. Bearish Continuation - Ideally we can see price action stay below our 97.500 resistance zone which is also our 38.2% fib level. Look for price action to reject 97.500 with strong bearish conviction. This will most likely confirm a bearish dollar for the week ahead. Keep in mind, price action can push up to the 98.000 zone and still remain bearish. Reversal - This is the less likely move for the week ahead but not impossible. For us to consider DXY bullish again on the 4hour timeframe we would need to see price action push above our 98.000 resistance area with a confirmed higher low above. Look for strong bullish rejection above & off of 98.000 acting as support. This is the first step for DXY in becoming bullish again.
TVC:DXYShort
by ForexLeague
Pullback before next leg up NASDAQ’s looking weak short term. We’ve seen multiple rejections from the highs, an M pattern forming on the daily, and RSI divergence creeping in on the daily — momentum is clearly fading. I already took profit around 21980. And a few small swings between the range since 3rd of June. The rally off the tariff drop was sharp, but it feels mechanical. Bulls look tired here. You can see price is stalling — pushing into the same highs but getting nowhere. Classic signs of distribution. That said, this isn’t the start of a full-blown bear market. The long-term trend remains bullish. AI investment is still piling into the U.S., tech’s still leading globally, and structurally we haven’t broken down yet. Some weakness is starting to show though. But short term, I think we see a pullback. The Fed’s still sitting on the fence with rate cuts, which is creating uncertainty. Add that to the current geopolitical tensions, and there’s enough on the table to justify a temporary risk-off move. If price breaks and closes above 21,860, I’ll reassess and potentially shift back to a bullish bias. Until then, I’m leaning short and letting price action do the talking. My key downside levels: TP1: 21,483 — scale out and protect. TP2: 21,322 — potential bounce from this area. TP3: 21,145 — structure starts to weaken. TP4: 20,894 — bears starting to control and a deeper flush, I’ll reassess bias at this level. SL @ 21850 on my second entry short Short term: pullback likely. Big picture: still bullish — but bulls need to reset before any next leg up.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by In-de-trend
1
Nas Long to clear HH liquidity before correctionHTF Context – Monthly / Weekly / Daily • Big Beautiful Bill (Trump Tax + Spending Bill) o Passed July 4th, acting as a stimulus. o Markets historically rally on fiscal stimulus expectations (tax cuts + spending packages). o This fuels bullish sentiment short-term, but long-term raises debt, inflation risk, and rate hike concerns. • Seasonality o July is typically strong for equities, especially tech, with mid-July often marking local tops before August pullbacks. • Monthly structure o Strong bullish monthly candles. o Next major fib retracements if rejected: 38.2% ~20,398, 50% ~19,625, 61.8% ~18,852. • Weekly / Daily structure o HH-HL sequence continues. o Price in premium zone, approaching major supply block 23,200–23,300. o Daily BOS not broken downwards yet. ________________________________________ Key Levels • Major supply / liquidity magnet: 23,200–23,300 (sell-side OB in futures, uncollected liquidity above HH) • Recent swing high: 22,900 • Daily pivot: 22,470 • Intraday demand zone: 22,450–22,350 (4H wedge base + VWAP) • Weekly support shelf: 22,100–22,200 (if lost, major trend shift bearish) ________________________________________ My View – Most Likely Path 1. Price is likely to sweep the liquidity above recent highs into the 23,200–23,300 supply zone. o Why? Market rarely leaves liquidity uncollected. This move traps breakout buyers and hits stops above HHs. o Big Beautiful Bill fuels the final squeeze higher as algorithms price in fiscal stimulus. 2. After liquidity sweep above 23,200–23,300: o Expect strong rejection from that zone. o Institutions offload positions into trapped retail longs. o Price pulls back towards daily and weekly support zones for reaccumulation. 3. Alternate scenario (less likely) o Immediate sell-off from current levels without sweeping HH. o Weak move; would still expect a revisit higher later to clear liquidity before a proper downtrend. ________________________________________ Trade Setups – Intraday & Swing Intraday Long (Most Likely) • Bias: Bullish continuation • Entry Zone: 22,450–22,350 (4H demand + VWAP) • Trigger: 5m/15m BOS up • Stop: Below 22,300. • Targets: First at 22,615, next at 22,845, final at 23,200–23,300. ________________________________________ Intraday Short (Countertrend / Liquidity Sweep Reversal) • Bias: Short from supply after liquidity grab • Entry Zone: 23,200–23,300 • Trigger: Sweep of HH with rejection wick or bearish engulfing candle • Stop: Above 23,350 (structure invalidation). • Targets: First at 22,845, then 22,600, extend to 22,450 if momentum accelerates. ________________________________________ Swing Long (Continuation) • Bias: Bullish trend intact • Entry: After retest of daily pivot (22,470) or 4H demand (22,350–22,450) with 4H CHoCH + BOS up. • Stop: Below 22,200 (weekly support break invalidates). • Targets: 22,845 then 23,200–23,300. Blue sky if above. ________________________________________ Swing Short (Only if structure breaks) • Trigger: Daily close below 22,200 • Bias: Bearish trend shift • Targets: 21,800 first, then 21,000 major fib cluster and weekly MA. ________________________________________ Summary – My Final Opinion Price is in a strong uptrend fuelled by fiscal stimulus, rate cuts and tarrif hopes . I think it will sweep the liquidity above 23,200–23,300 before any deeper pullback or trend reversal. Any rejection from that supply zone will be the cue to short for a structural retracement. Until then, I’ll keep buying dips aligned with the HTF bullish structure.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by In-de-trend
1
Technical Analysis: KSE-100 Index 06-07-2025📈 Technical Analysis: KSE-100 Index KSE-100 is moving precisely in line with expectations, validating our previous outlook. After completing a shallow intraday pullback, the index has successfully achieved an intermediate lower timeframe target today. We maintain our bullish outlook with the next key target set at 145,200. As long as the index continues with shallow corrections, this target remains well within reach. Should a deeper pullback occur, we will reassess and potentially revise the upside targets higher. 🧭 Current Target: 145,200 📌 Target revisions will follow only after a major correction or pullback. Let’s see if the KSE-100 can hit this milestone in style!
PSX:KSE100
by THE-CHART-ALCHEMIST
$DXY: New lows begets new lows. $USM2: Why is it increasing? Here we are again with one more TVC:DXY chart analysis. I think the US Dollar does not fail to surprise us week after week. Making new lows every week is giving a boost to the Equity markets. The SP:SPX and NASDAQ:QQQ are at ATH. In my articles on April 18 and June 16 Perfect trade setup: AMEX:GLD to 325; DXY to 95 for AMEX:GLD by RabishankarBiswal TVC:DXY weakness and EM markets: NSE:NIFTY more upside? for NSE:NIFTY by RabishankarBiswal — TradingView We have time and again said that in the near term TVC:DXY chart looks weak and could touch 95 by end of July. I think it might be achieved earlier. We have looked at the consequences of 95 handle on TVC:DXY on various asset classes like AMEX:GLD , NSE:NIFTY and EMs. These asset classes are reaching ATH every single week. But we have seldom investigated the reason behind the weakness in $DXY. Looking through my macro charts I found an amazing chart which might explain most of this weakness. The ECONOMICS:USM2 is almost at 22 T $ surpassing its previous high on March 2022. M2 is basically the total amount of money in circulation in the economy on top of the nominal M1. Higher M2 indicates higher amount of liquidity which is then channelized into riskier assets like CRYPTOCAP:BTC , AMEX:GLD , SP:SPX , NASDAQ:QQQ and EMS like $NIFTY. And with such high ECONOMICS:USM2 in circulation, it is very clear why TVC:DXY is making new lows each week. This can also explain why US Fed is hesitant to reduce rates. With M2 so high US Fed should not hurry. Verdict: TVC:DXY to 95 by 31 July, Cycle low of 90 by year end. ECONOMICS:USM2 keeps increasing. US Fed stays put.
TVC:DXYLong
by RabishankarBiswal
We can expect such a move if the event I mentioned in the captioHello friends.. In the analysis we had previously told you about the dollar index on this page, it started a downward trend right from the specified area (you can visit the page) Now, after a long time has passed since that analysis, we are now in a suitable range in the dollar index. See, on the weekly time frame, the index number has hit a strong support area, but we should not make a trading decision by seeing this support unit. As you can see in the image, if the index number suffers in this range, we can expect a turn in the index. You can change the trading decisions you have had so far in the event of a turn in the index. This is just a view from our team, do not attach it to your trades. . . Follow our page to see more analyses.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by Mahdi_norozi
NASDAQ Key Levels July 7 2025If NY fails to reclaim 22,755–780 early in the week, expect a grind back toward 22,644 → 22,600, with 22,520 in play only if volume confirms. Reclaiming and holding above 22,800+ would invalidate this bearish setup. Watch for trap volume, delta reversals, and volume imbalances at all key zones before entering. 22,880 – 🔻 Weekly wick top ➤ Major rejection zone with a stop cluster sitting above. 22,800–820 – Possible NY trap zone ➤ Trap absorption detected here on footprint — watch New York for rejection or breakout. 22,755–22,780 – Retest zone ➤ Multiple trap wicks with low delta on 1H/15M. Likely to bait breakout traders before fading. 22,700 – Structural demand / pivot point ➤ A clean break + hold below = bearish market shift. 22,644 – ✅ Session low / Take Profit 1 ➤ If 22,700 breaks, this is the first clean downside target. 22,600 – Daily value zone ➤ High-probability liquidity target if selling extends below 22,644. 22,520 – Final sweep target ➤ Only likely if New York session sells off hard mid-to-late week.
FUSIONMARKETS:NAS100
by daemon1
DXY LONG TERM ANALYSISI anticipate dollar to trade down towards 80. After which we shall look for longs towards 144. This is a long term outlook. 1. first we trade down towards sellside liquidity at 87. 2. Next key level is the 3 month fair value gap at 84 3. Eventually hitting the 25 DRT of the current dealing range at 80. 4. Then we can look to go long targeting 75 DRT of the parent Dealing Range. 5. We shall be coming here weekly to review and correct course as the market unfolds. THANK YOU.
TVC:DXYShort
by kabiruchege1
1
NASDAQ Key Levels July 7 2025If NY fails to reclaim 22,755–780 early in the week, expect a grind back toward 22,644 → 22,600, with 22,520 in play only if volume confirms. Reclaiming and holding above 22,800+ would invalidate this bearish setup. Watch for trap volume, delta reversals, and volume imbalances at all key zones before entering. 22,880 – 🔻 Weekly wick top ➤ Major rejection zone with a stop cluster sitting above. 22,800–820 – 🧱 Possible NY trap zone ➤ Trap absorption detected here on footprint — watch New York for rejection or breakout. 22,755–22,780 – 🔁 Retest zone ➤ Multiple trap wicks with low delta on 1H/15M. Likely to bait breakout traders before fading. 22,700 – ⚠️ Structural demand / pivot point ➤ A clean break + hold below = bearish market shift. 22,644 – ✅ Session low / Take Profit 1 ➤ If 22,700 breaks, this is the first clean downside target. 22,600 – 🎯 Daily value zone ➤ High-probability liquidity target if selling extends below 22,644. 22,520 – 🧨 Final sweep target ➤ Only likely if New York session sells off hard mid-to-late week.
FUSIONMARKETS:NAS100
by daemon1
1
DXY July 6 AnalysisDXY July 6 Parent Bias Bear WEEKLY ANALYSIS *Good example to witness price trend for the second week-the pull back I was anticipating did occur just not to the level I had suggested in last Sundays journal *Note Price wicked to the .70 level on the monthly *Price took key equal lows and rebalanced a FVG from Feb 22 *Monday/Tuesday Price seek lower prices *Mid week consolidation-expected *Thursday price took equal highs I was anticipating *Friday Asia *PM session of NY price retraced to close in consolidation *Thursday expansion to buy side then on Friday reversal WEEK AHEAD IDEAS *Price closes in a consolidation on the previous days range 50% *I suspect that price could seek the minor equal highs/FVG potentially reach for the gap from Thursday possible target should it really expand - this could be Sundays delivery *could price expand for higher prices beginning of the week *No news until Wednesday *Sundays delivery can affect my ideas stay open
TVC:DXY
by LeanLena
Let’s talk about technical analysis & stops.Technical analysis is not your decision-making process — it’s a tool to help you structure better trading decisions by studying past price movements to anticipate likely future moves. 👉 Every time you look at a chart, you should decide: ✅ Do I want to trade at all? ✅ What’s my entry? ✅ Where’s my stop (when does my thesis fail)? ✅ What’s my target (where will I take profits)? ________________________________________ 🛑 Where to put your stop? Take the S&P 500 daily chart. It’s been trending up strongly. Many traders use an exponential moving average (EMA) as a dynamic stop. But: • A 9 EMA often stops you out too early on strong trends. • Adjusting to a 15 or 16 EMA could keep you in the trade longer, letting your winners run. In tools like TradingView, you can visually adjust the EMA and see in real time how it would have kept you in or taken you out. ________________________________________ 💡 Key takeaway: When price closes below your EMA stop — that’s your signal to exit and lock in profits. Use TA to structure your trades, not just spot pretty patterns. ________________________________________ 💬 What’s your favourite method for setting stops? Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
CBOE:SPXLong
by The_STA
11
SPX: highly optimisticThe US market celebrated on Friday the US Independence Day, after highly optimistic last two weeks. Almost every day, the S&P 500 was reaching new all time highest levels, finishing Thursday trading session at 6.279. At this moment this is officially treated as a new ATH for the index. The optimism was supported by better than expected US jobs data posted during the previous week. The NFP added 147K new jobs in June, which beated market expectations. The strong US payrolls reinforced market confidence despite concerns over trade tariffs. With inflation remaining sticky and solid jobs growth, markets have increased expectations of the Fed's rate cut in September. Currently, there is relatively low odds that the next rate cut might occur at the Julys FOMC meeting. Tech companies were again those who led the index to the upside. The leader was for one more time Nvidia, with a weekly surge of 9,7%. AMZN was traded higher by 6,3%, MSFT by 3,9%. TSLA was struggling a bit, ending the week 0,33% higher from the week before. Weekly news regarding trade tariffs include a US-Vietnam trade deal of 20% tariffs on imports from Vietnam. At the same time, the US exports to Vietnam will be tariffs-free. However, markets are still concerned regarding the final resolution of imposed 90-days delay of implemented tariffs for almost 180 countries around the world, a period which expires in July. On the other hand, Trump's tax mega bill was passed by the US Senate on Tuesday, and is currently awaiting final approval from the House. There were many discussions during the previous period that this tax mega bill might further increase US debt levels, which will be negatively reflected in the economy.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
US30 Will Move Higher! Buy! Take a look at our analysis for US30. Time Frame: 1h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 44,556.0. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 44,867.4 level soon. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TRADENATION:US30Long
by SignalProvider
1
DXY Potential Bullish Reversal – Target 99.456 DXY Potential Bullish Reversal – Target 99.456 🎯 Technical Analysis Overview: 🔹 Trend Structure: The chart illustrates a recent downtrend, which has been broken as price moved above the descending trendline, signaling a potential trend reversal. 🔹 Pattern Insight: A bullish harmonic pattern is visible (possibly a bullish Bat or Gartley), with the price reacting from the PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone), aligning with key support near 96.500. The market has respected this zone multiple times, evident from the orange highlighted circles showing price rejections. 🔹 Support & Resistance: Support Zone: ~96.500 Breakout Zone: ~96.985 (current consolidation near this resistance) Target Zone: Marked at 99.456, which aligns with previous structure and fib projection. 🔹 Market Sentiment: Price is consolidating after breaking the downtrend, forming a bullish rectangle (accumulation). The green arrows indicate bullish intent from buyers defending support levels. 🔹 Price Action Signal: Formation of higher lows. Break of structure and close above previous highs. Possible breakout pending above consolidation box. 📊 Conclusion: DXY shows bullish potential as it builds a base around strong support. A confirmed breakout above the rectangle could fuel a rally toward 99.456. Keep an eye on volume and confirmation candles for entry. ✅
TVC:DXYLong
by MrStellanSight