BABA | Long | Strong AI & Seasonality Tailwinds (July 2025)BABA | Long | Strong AI & Seasonality Tailwinds (Aug 2025)
1️⃣ Quick Insight: Alibaba is showing strong AI-driven momentum, healthy fundamentals, and positive seasonality patterns. August–December tends to be bullish, and the stock is already holding up well despite recent dips.
2️⃣ Trade Parameters:
Bias: Long
Entry: Current price zone (~$123)
Stop Loss: $87
Take Profits:
TP1: $131
TP2: $143
TP3: $177
TP4: $206
TP5: $217
TP6: $257
Extended Target: $300 (if momentum holds through the parallel channel)
3️⃣ Key Notes:
Alibaba’s fundamentals remain solid with revenue up on a yearly basis since 2021, even though some quarters have shown pressure. EPS is expected to grow annually, and institutional interest is strong (43% holding increase by Maridea Wealth Management). The AI pivot with Qwen LLM models and Quark AI glasses launch could be major catalysts. Seasonality supports upside through mid-December before potential reversals.
4️⃣ What to Watch:
AI & cloud revenue performance (Qwen adoption)
Cainiao and other potential spinoff IPOs
Regulatory updates and U.S.-China tensions
Seasonal strength: historically bullish until late November–early December
📊 Outlook: Analysts forecast $150–$160 in the next 12 months (~20–30% upside). Bull case targets range $200–$250 over 3–5 years, with potential extension if AI & international commerce expansions deliver.
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Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research.
