IXIC: Nasdaq Composite Pops Above Highest Close but Dives Back. New Record Soon?

PCE data today may just be what the tech-heavy index needs now — if it’s good, it may bump up the chances of a rate cut sooner than later.

🎯 Nasdaq Almost There

• The Nasdaq Composite index IXIC jumped 1% Thursday, finishing at 20,167.91, just a hair’s breadth — 8 points — below its all-time record close of 20,173.89 set in mid-December.
• The index actually briefly cleared the record intraday before retreating in the final moments, leaving traders wondering if Friday’s PCE inflation data might provide the nudge needed for a new milestone.
• If the data turns out good, it may help with the chances of a rate cut in July or September, thus adding to the broader optimism for risk assets. Expectations are set for a 2.6% year-on-year rise in May, higher than the 2.5% logged in April.

🤝 Not All Are Equal

• The S&P 500 rose 0.8% to 6,141.02, putting it within three tiny (but also grand) points of its February 19 record close of 6,144 — a new high could come with just a mild data beat or even a consensus hit.
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1% to close at 43,386.84, still trailing its December 4 record by about 4% — the blue-chip index continues to lag behind its more tech-carrying peers.
• Market breadth improved, but it’s still mega-cap tech names (the ones we all know too well by now) doing the heavy lifting, creating a lopsided rally that may falter if the tech outlook suddenly turns just a little grim. But we’re not there now.

📈 Nvidia Keeps Smashing Record

• While the tech-dense index and its broad-based peer are trying to get to record territory, someone’s already there. Nvidia (ticker: NVDA) climbed another 0.5% Thursday, adding to Wednesday’s record-breaking 4.3% surge, and now boasts a market cap of $3.78 trillion — a global record for any listed company.
• The chipmaker’s stock is now up over 65% from its 2025 low in early April (tariffs, yes), fueled by traders and investors drooling over its AI and data center offerings.
• As Nvidia continues to climb, its influence on broader indexes like the Nasdaq and S&P 500 has grown, making it a key swing factor in whether new records are hit or missed.