EUR/USD: Euro Rebounds Above $1.18 After Breaking 9-Day Win Streak. Jobs Data Looms.

It’s nonfarm payrolls… Thursday? You read that right — Friday’s off for July 4th and the euro is trying to squeeze in some more gains ahead of the long weekend.

🏆 Euro Tops $1.18 in New Push Higher

• The EURUSD pair advanced to levels above $1.18, reclaiming the threshold after snapping a monster 9-day streak just yesterday. With so many days winning, the bloc’s currency maybe needed the time to catch its breath and keep going?
• That’s what traders are getting from Thursday’s early deals — a mild 0.1% pop in the euro-dollar pushed the exchange rate to a session high of $1.1809, inching closer to the four-year high of $1.1830 set Monday. And that’s just before some major news drops today.
• What’s the euro doing so high, in relative terms? The US dollar has been selling off like it’s no longer the world’s reserve currency (which it is, presently). But there’s also domestic reasons.

👋 ECB Says Hi from the Other Side

• The European Central Bank is likely nearing the end of its easing cycle with interest rates floating at a two-year low of 2%. The dollar, on the other side of the Atlantic, is still at the 4.5% handle because the Federal Reserve is not convinced about lowering borrowing costs just yet.
• Speaking of the dollar, the king of FX deals is eager to get some time out of the limelight with the upcoming celebrations in the US. America’s equity market is closing early on Thursday, at 1 p.m. due to the July 4th holiday. Friday is off entirely.
• Technically, forex doesn’t get the holidays off. Just gets lower volume and thinner liquidity because some of the biggest currency-trading players shutter and head to the beach to brag about their wins in stocks (which, apparently, are hitting record highs).

👀 Bracing for Jobs Data

• But before that, there’s the nonfarm payrolls data coming today. The monthly jobs data is expected to show US employers tapped 120,000 people to join the labor force in June, fewer jobs than the 139,000 in May.
• A figure that’s too cold — a low number — might suggest the economy is losing strength as US companies are paring back their hiring efforts. That, in turn, could prompt the Fed to act quicker with the rate cuts.
• But if the figure is too hot — a high number — it could mean that the economy is doing just fine, if not a little more than fine, and the Fed likely won’t feel pressured to drop the rate of borrowing.