EUR/USD: Euro Hits Sellwall at $1.17 as Resistance Builds at Third Inflection Point. Now What?

Excuse the technical language — but resistance is looming at the third leg up, causing the price to ricochet off of another lower high. Can euro bulls break through?

📉 Triple Tap Resistance

• The euro’s recent upside swing hit a snag Monday as the EURUSD pair briefly pierced $1.1705 before fading under $1.1680, ricocheting off a well-defined descending resistance line. Forex bros are now asking: is this just a breather, or the start of another stall?
• The euro’s rejection at $1.17 marks the third touchpoint on the downtrend line, a level technicians have been eyeing to pile their shorts. The first rejection came July 1 at $1.1830, followed by a second at $1.1770 on July 28, and now today’s touch-and-go reversal.
• A move through $1.17 with conviction could open up a run toward $1.18, but as long as that line holds, the bias skews back toward range-trading or a corrective pullback.

🌍 Geopolitics vs. Monetary Policy

• For euro bulls, the question is whether the broader uptrend still carries enough momentum to break the sellwall.
• Monday’s headlines aren’t just about charts. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will be at the White House, backed by European leaders. The goal? Press Donald Trump for security guarantees in a push to end the war. A breakthrough could reshape risk sentiment across FX markets.
• Later in the week, Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell will take the stage at Jackson Hole on Friday, where traders expect clues on September’s policy move. With markets pricing in a near-95% chance of a Fed rate cut, any hint of hawkish hesitation could revive the dollar.

💶 Bulls vs. Bears at the Line

• Until then, macro risks loom large over technical setups — meaning breakouts could come on headlines, not candles. The euro is still up 13% in 2025, its strongest yearly performance against the dollar in recent years. Momentum and rate-cut bets give bulls a case.
• Bears counter with resistance levels, geopolitical uncertainty, and the risk Powell pushes back on market easing expectations.
• The takeaway? The $1.17 level is the battlefield. The longer the euro-dollar stalls below it, the heavier the resistance grows. But a decisive break — especially with dovish Fed signals — could reset the trend higher.