SPX: S&P 500 Closes Choppy August with 3.7% Gain. Markets Brace for September Volatility.

September is expected to bring the first cut to interest rates since 2020. What’s it gonna be — 25bps or 50bps?

• The S&P 500 closed the August chapter full of swings and some panic selling but ultimately swung to positive performance. The broad-based Wall Street index added 3.7% in the past month, just 0.3% away from its all-time record hit in July. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite and the real-economy Dow Jones Industrial Average each ticked higher by 3% for August. Looking ahead, lots of exciting things are on the docket.
• September kicks off with a day off for US stocks in honor of Labor Day. Tuesday will officially see the first stock deals of the month roll in. Shortly after, the early-month report hits the deck as usual — nonfarm payrolls land on the first Friday of the month. Analysts are hoping to see 164,000 jobs positions filled in for August, up from the freezing-cold take for July. Unemployment rate is expected to drop to 4.2% from 4.3%.
• Later in the month, on September 18, the Federal Reserve will update its benchmark interest rate. Consensus calls for a 25bps trim to borrowing costs, which are currently sitting at a 23-year high of 5.5%. More interestingly, one out of three analysts, according to CME FedWatch, expects the Fed to slash interest rates by a jumbo-sized 50bps. In any case, volatility is bound to pick up, presenting some solid trading opportunities.