SPX: S&P 500 Clocks Out Flat as Stock Traders Go Quiet Ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech

Lowest volume since May is how Monday’s session will go down in history books. Powell’s final Jackson Hole speech approaches (at least as Fed head).

💵 Stocks Go Nowhere Monday

• The S&P 500 (SPX) barely budged, down 0.01% on Monday, in what turned out to be the lowest trading day since May as stock bros stepped back ahead of Jerome Powell’s final Jackson Hole speech as Fed chair (his term ends in May next year). The Dow slipped 34 points, while the Nasdaq eked out a 0.03% gain.
• Apparently, Monday will be remembered for what didn’t happen — volume. Maybe even you, the traders, need to go on vacation every once in a while. After all, the summer months are nearly over and summer trading is just about to be swapped with autumn vibes.
• The summer rally hit pause as declines in Meta META, a 2.3% drop, and Microsoft MSFT, shedding 0.6%, clipped the big-cap indexes. The drag came after a report that Meta is planning its fourth AI overhaul in six months, splitting its “Superintelligence Labs” into four groups.

🏛️ Fed to Take Center Stage

• While tech took a breather, smaller companies showed relative strength, a reminder that investors may be rotating into less expensive corners of the market.
• Still, the malaise was clear: market participants largely chose the sidelines, unwilling to make bold bets before Powell’s headline slot at Jackson Hole.
• The Fed is center stage this week. Minutes from July’s meeting drop Wednesday, giving more color on why officials held rates steady.

🛠️ Powell, Minutes, and Rate Cut Odds

• More precisely, Friday’s Jackson Hole speech is shaping up as the catalyst. Powell is slated to give a speech on the path forward for the US economy and how convinced Fed officials are about cutting interest rates.
• The yield curve isn’t subtle: the gap between short- and long-dated Treasuries is widening, a bond market sign that Wall Street is already convinced cuts are coming (helped along by Trump’s pressure campaign).
• Futures markets imply an 83% chance of a September rate cut, and investors want Powell to confirm it — or at least not fight the idea.

🛍️ Retail Earnings Ahead

• Beyond Powell, the tape gets fresh input from Walmart WMT, Target TGT, Home Depot HD, and Lowe’s LOW, all reporting this week. Their numbers will help answer the biggest question left in the rally: is the mighty US consumer still spending with confidence?
• Elevated stock valuations, tariffs, and slowing job growth hover as downside risks, leaving investors cautious about chasing highs.
• For today, though, the story is one of restless calm — the market’s waiting on Powell to decide whether this ‘everything rally’ still has legs.