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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 6-11: Bottom-Base Rally Counter TrndToday's counter-trend Bottom-Base Rally pattern suggests the markets may attempt to find a peak and roll over into a downtrend. The normal Bottom-Base Rally pattern is similar to the start of a moderate price base/bottom, then moving into a moderate rally phase. In counter-trend mode this pattern would be inverted - forming a Top and then moving into a downward price trend. I've been warning of the potential of a rollover top type of pattern in the SPY over the past few weeks - but it never really setup/confirmed. I'll be curious to see if this counter-trend pattern, today, sets up some type of big top formation in the SPY/QQQ. It might be related to news as well. Gold and Silver have a Gap-Stall-Revert-FLUSH pattern. This is always an interesting pattern because is suggests price is going to attempt to either gap and trend or stall and revert. My guess is we are looking at more trending in metals today. Platinum is RIPPING higher (PL1!). Because of this, I believe Silver and Gold will attempt to follow Platinum and move to the upside today. BTCUSD is stalling a bit. We'll see if we get any big price move in Bitcoin today. After the big rally over the past few days, it will be interesting to see if BTCUSD reverts downward or continues higher. Overall, today's patterns suggest the markets are seeking direction. Get ready for an exciting day in the markets. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
8
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 6-13 : Harami-Inside PatternToday's pattern suggests the markets may stall into a sideways price range. After the news of Israel targeting Iran in a preemptive strike late yesterday afternoon, the markets moved dramatically lower while Gold & Silver moved higher on the news. I, personally, see this market trend as a shift in thinking ahead of a long Father's Day weekend. I see traders trying to position their accounts/trades for uncertainty. I believe we could see a bit of a shift today - particularly in Metals and the QQQ/NASDAQ/BTCUSD. Overall, I strongly suggest traders prepare for extreme volatility this weekend as any further news of a counter-strike or further military action in the Middle East could roil the markets. Happy Friday the 13th - everyone. Going to be an interesting day to say the least. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
2
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 6-16 : Up-Down-Up PatternToday's Up-Down-Up Pattern suggests the markets will transition into a moderate upward trending price bar - which is quite interesting in the world we have today. War and a big weekend of events, protests and other new items could drive market trends over the next few days. Still, the SPY Cycle Pattern for today is an Up-Down-Up - which suggests last Thursday was an Up bar, last Friday was a Down bar, and today should be an Up bar. The Gold/Silver pattern is a POP pattern in Counter-trend. I believe the US markets are benefiting as a safe-haven for capital as the global turmoil drives global investors to seek safety and security for their capital. That means as long as the world continues to spin out of control, the US markets and the US-Dollar will act as a moderate safe-haven for capital. Gold and Silver should also benefit from this global chaos. Bitcoin is benefiting from the strength of the US markets (and the technology sector) as well. Let's see how this week start to play out. I'm waiting for some more news. Could be very interesting this week. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
2
SPY Technical Analysis - Jun 16⏱️ 1‑Hour Chart Overview Key Zones * Support: $597–$601 — built on put-gamma support * Resistance: $605–$607 — topped by call-gamma walls Bias: Cautiously bullish — awaiting confirmation above $600–601 Trade Idea: * Structure: Bull call spread (600/605 strikes) * Targets: * T1: $605 (initial gamma cap) * T2: $607 (upper gamma wall) * Invalidation: Break decisively below $595 Management: * Entry: Buy near $600–601 with bullish candle and supportive volume * Scaling: Start small and layer in if price holds * Exit: * Take partial profits at $605 * Trail to $607 * Exit if SPY drops below $595 Why It Works: Gamma flows from option expiries tend to provide momentum near the spread’s strikes, and the debit structure defines both risk and reward. ⏳ 15‑Minute Chart (Intraday Entry) Setup Window: Zooming in for precise entry within 1‑hour framework What to Observe 1. Pullback to $600–601 * Look for a bullish reversal candle (hammer, engulfing) on 15‑m * Ideally, with increasing volume 2. Confirmation Signal * Break above the high of that reversal candle * Volume support confirms genuine demand 3. Momentum Alignment * Pair with an intraday oscillator (e.g., Muscle mover, RSI rising) * Candles should show higher lows or extended wick above support 15‑Minute Trade Rules * Entry: Market or limit buy on a 15‑m candle closing above reversal high (~$601) * Stop: Under that candle’s low (e.g., ~$599.50) * Profit Scaling: * Partial de‑risk at ~$605 * Full exit planned at ~$607 🚦 Multi‑Timeframe Strategy Summary 1‑Hour: Macro bias and strike framework
15‑Min: Precision entry zone & risk control
Spread Trade: Leverages GEX structure for momentum capture Risk Defined: Debit known, stops clear
Upside Potential: Push toward gamma-neutralizing walls
Flow Edge: Option hedging dynamics predominantly active around spread levels 🧠 Watchlist * Price behavior near $600–601 on 15‑m * Volume surge with bullish candle * Macro drivers: Fed noise, SPX futures action, sector rotation * Shifts in implied volatility that may affect spread pricing Trade with discipline — defined risk, entry precision, steady management.
Disclaimer: Not financial advice. All trading involves risk; do your own due diligence.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
6
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 6-17: Top Resistance PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will move into a type of topping pattern, attempting to identify resistance, then roll away from that resistance level and trend downward. I suggest the news related to the conflict between Israel & Iran may continue to drive market trends with traders moving away from uncertainty near these recent highs. Silver makes a big move higher. Gold will likely follow later this week or early next week. BTCUSD moves into a sideways FLAGGING pattern - possibly attempting a BIG BREAKDOWN event over the next few weeks. Overall, the markets look like they are poised for a very big move - just waiting for the GREEN LINK (GO). Stay safe. Protect capital and HEDGE. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
3
Overview of the Architectural Components within HFT SystemsArchitectural Components of HFT Systems Designing an HFT trading system requires a holistic, ultra-low-latency architecture. Rather than a monolithic program, HFT systems are composed of multiple specialized components, each optimized for speed. A typical HFT software architecture can be broken into several layers or modules, including: Market Data Feed Handlers , Trading Signal/Strategy Engine , Order Routing and Execution Manager , Risk Management , and Exchange Connectivity/Gateway . These work in concert to achieve a full “tick-to-trade” pipeline from incoming data to decision to order placement. Signal Acquisition (Market Data Handling) Signal acquisition is the front end of any HFT system – it encompasses the intake of raw market data and extraction of usable trading signals from it. HFT firms typically subscribe to direct exchange data feeds for equities, futures, etc., rather than slower consolidated feeds, to get every quote and trade update as fast as possible. The module responsible for this is often called the Market Data Handler (MDH) or feed handler. Its job is to ingest and parse real-time tick data with minimal latency. This includes order book updates (bids, offers, cancels), trades, and other market events. A feed handler must handle huge message rates. Major equity exchanges can generate hundreds of thousands of updates per second, and an HFT system may track dozens of instruments across multiple venues. The feed handler maintains an internal representation of the limit order book for each market, updating it with each tick. Efficiency in this component is paramount: processing each message should ideally take only a few nanoseconds to microseconds. To achieve this, HFT feed handlers use highly optimized data structures (often arrays or fixed-size buffers rather than tree/linked structures). They avoid dynamic memory allocation – memory is pre-allocated and reused to avoid garbage collection or malloc/free overhead during trading. The output of signal acquisition is a live, updated view of market state plus any derived signals. For example, the feed handler might also compute microstructural features on the fly: current top of book, depth imbalance, last trade price, etc., so that the strategy engine can quickly access these. In an HFT system design, this stage is often where most of the data bandwidth is handled. Everything downstream (trading logic, etc.) depends on the feed handler’s ability to keep up without lagging. If your feed handler falls behind (messages queueing up), your signals are stale – a fatal flaw in HFT. Thus, a guiding principle is to make this layer as bare-metal and streamlined as possible: use efficient languages (I personally use C++ for my algorithms), avoid unnecessary copying of data, batch process if possible, and leverage hardware accelerations. In practice, HFT developers profile their feed handling to the nanosecond level and sometimes even design custom memory layouts to ensure order book updates touch the CPU cache optimally. Order Routing Logic and Smart Order Routers Once the strategy decides to trade, the system needs to route orders to the appropriate trading venues. In a fragmented market environment (like U.S. equities with 16+ exchanges, or Europe’s multiple exchanges and dark pools), the logic of where and how to send an order can be complex. This is where the Order Manager and Smart Order Router (SOR) components come in . The order manager constructs orders and passes them to a routing algorithm that determines the best execution venue(s) based on factors like price, liquidity, and latency. A Smart Order Router is essentially an algorithm that optimizes execution across multiple markets. For example, suppose an HFT strategy wants to buy 10000 shares of XYZ stock. Liquidity might be spread across BATS, NYSE, Nasdaq, IEX, etc. The SOR will observe the order books (via the market data module) and decide how to allocate the order: it might simultaneously send 200 shares to Nasdaq, 300 to BATS, 100 to NYSE, etc., to get the best overall price without tipping its hand too much on any single venue. It may also employ tactics like order-splitting (slice the order into smaller chunks) or spraying many small orders across venues to hide the true size and reduce market impact. SORs can split aggressively or passively depending on the market data and are enhanced to cope with HFT by reducing latency and using smarter venue-selection algorithms. It's worth noting that the BATS exchange is the only exchange that pays takers of a price a commission fee while the rest of the exchanges pay makers for providing liquidity (Yes, HFT algorithms are paid a commission fee to trade while retail traders through there brokers will always pay outsized commission fees to trade). Important considerations for order routing in HFT include: Best Price and Liquidity : In the U.S., Regulation NMS requires routing to the venue with the best price (NBBO). SORs ensure if one exchange has the best offer, an outgoing buy order goes there (unless an exception like a dark pool midpoint is desired). Often HFT SORs will simultaneously access multiple venues to ensure they capture liquidity at the top prices before others do. The router must know in real time where the best prices are – hence tight integration with the live market data feed. Speed vs. Cost Tradeoff : Some venues might have slightly slower access but lower fees or larger size available. The SOR often optimizes a cost function that balances execution speed, price, and fees. For example, an aggressive SOR might sweep all lit venues up to a certain price tolerance immediately (to minimize timing risk), whereas another might try a ping in a dark pool for price improvement if speed is slightly less critical. Order Types and Venue Characteristics : Each exchange can have unique order types and behaviours (e.g., IEX has a 350µs speed delay; some venues offer midpoint peg orders; others have rebate vs fee). The SOR logic incorporates these. For instance, it might send an order to IEX only if it anticipates the speed bump won’t harm execution, or it might avoid venues where it predicts queue time would be too long. Venue parameters like average latency, fill probability, and fee are often configured so the router “knows” which markets are preferable. Internalization and Dark Pools : Some HFT firms operate as market makers that also internalize flow or use dark pools. The SOR might include logic to check internal liquidity (e.g., see if an affiliate or internal crossing system has the opposite side) before going out. Or it might ping a dark pool if that could result in a non-marketable order finding a hidden match. This must be balanced against latency – dark pools can introduce slight delays. Atomicity and Race Conditions : In fragmented markets, a risk is that by the time you reach the second or third venue, the price might have moved. SORs try to simultaneously hit all venues at once when doing a marketable order, to reduce this risk. There’s a notion of a “sweep” – sending orders in parallel such that you grab liquidity across venues within microseconds of each other. Some routers send immediate-or-cancel (IOC) orders to each venue at the same time. The complexity is handling the responses: some might fill, others partial, etc. The order manager then aggregates these fills and determines if more is needed or if it overshot. From a technical implementation standpoint, the SOR and order manager operate under extreme time pressure in HFT. The time from a strategy’s trade decision to sending out orders must be minimal (often a few microseconds). This means the order routing logic is often implemented in the same process as the strategy to avoid inter-process latency, or even in hardware (some ultra-low latency routers are done on FPGA). The logic may be pre-compiled or use lookup tables to decide routing rather than complex computations in real-time. Some HFT firms also maintain connections to all exchanges simultaneously (via multiple network interface cards) so they can blast out orders concurrently. The architecture might have a thread per exchange gateway, all woken simultaneously to send messages when a signal to trade is given. Crucially, risk controls are integrated in the order path. No matter how fast, an HFT system must check outgoing orders against limits (e.g., do not send an order that exceeds position limits or fat-finger bounds). These checks have to be extremely fast as well – often implemented as simple arithmetic comparisons in the order manager. Many exchanges also offer exchange-side risk checks and kill-switches now, but relying on those alone could be too slow or late. In summary, the order routing logic in HFT serves to get the best execution possible across many venues, without sacrificing speed . A well-designed SOR can be a competitive advantage: if your router grabs liquidity 50 microseconds faster than a competitor’s, you avoid missing trades or chasing moving prices (the worst feeling). Risk Controls and Safeguards Despite the emphasis on speed and autonomy, HFT systems must enforce strict risk management at all times. The trading algorithms operate at such high speeds that a small bug or unchecked strategy can bankrupt a firm in seconds (notable incidents like the Knight Capital fiasco in 2012, where a faulty algo lost $440 million in 45 minutes). Therefore, robust risk controls are baked into the system architecture to prevent catastrophic errors and ensure compliance with regulations. Key risk controls in HFT include: Pre-Trade Risk Checks : Every order that an HFT system attempts to send is typically vetted against a set of limits before it goes out. These checks happen in the order manager or gateway component, and are designed to incur minimal latency (often just a few CPU instructions). Examples: Max Order Size (don’t send orders larger than X shares or contracts), Price Collar (e.g., if an order’s price is far outside the current market, block it – to avoid fat-finger mistakes like $0.01 asks when stock was just trading for $40 flash crash reference ), and Position Limits (don’t buy more than Y shares in total or more than Z in a single name). For HFT firms registered as market makers, regulatory obligations might also require certain limits (like not exceeding aggregate volume limits without alerts). These checks act as circuit-breakers for the algo’s behaviour. Credit/Capital Limits : The system tracks its current usage of capital and ensures it doesn’t exceed set thresholds. For example, a running sum of gross and net exposure is updated with each fill. If the net long or short in any instrument exceeds a predefined limit, the system should halt further orders in that direction. Similarly, many firms have a daily loss limit – if cumulative P&L goes below a threshold, the system will cut off trading to prevent a death spiral. These are often hierarchical (per strategy limits, product limits, and firm-wide limits). Kill Switches : A kill-switch is an emergency stop that can flatten positions and cancel all orders instantly if something goes wrong. This can be triggered automatically by the software (if it detects, say, an unusual burst of orders or loss), or manually by risk managers. Modern HFT platforms implement kill-switches at multiple levels – software, network (some use specialized network devices that can block outgoing traffic if a message with a kill command is sent), and via third-party services (exchanges themselves often have kill-switch APIs that brokers/HFTs can call to cancel all their orders on that exchange). The key is speed and reliability: a kill command should propagate faster than the algo can do harm. For perspective, after Knight Capital’s incident, U.S. regulators mandated broker-dealers (who often host HFT servers) to have risk controls including kill-switch functionality to prevent “errant algorithms” from disrupting markets. Realtime Monitoring and Alerts : Although HFT is automated, most firms have a monitoring dashboard that shows key stats: positions, P&L, order rates, latency, systems health. If any metric goes out of bounds (e.g., order send rate spikes abnormally, or one strategy’s P&L suddenly plunges), the system can generate alerts or auto-disable that strategy. In some setups, separate shadow processes compute these metrics so as not to slow the main trading loop. Exchange-Level Protections : HFT systems also take advantage of exchange-provided risk features. For example, many exchanges allow you to set fat-finger limits on their side, or provide cancel-on-disconnect (so if your server disconnects, all your orders are automatically canceled to avoid uncontrolled risk). Some markets have volatility guards – e.g., futures exchanges have stop logic if a trader executes a mass of trades that move price too far, the exchange might reject or halt trading. HFT firms configure these where possible. Additionally, HFT algorithms often incorporate logic to react to exchange trading halts or sudden illiquidity – if an exchange goes down or a symbol is halted, the system should freeze activity in related instruments. Testing and Safeguards in Code : On the development side, HFT firms invest in simulation and testing frameworks to catch issues before deployment. Strategies are tested on historical data and in sandbox environments. Many firms also utilize a “guarded release” approach – initially running a new algo on small size limits and monitoring it closely. Self-calibration can also be seen as a risk measure: the algorithm might adjust its trading frequency or size down if it observes increasing slippage or error rates, thereby scaling back risk in volatile conditions. Risk management in HFT must balance two opposing forces: safety vs. speed . Too many checks or overly conservative limits could slow down the system or reduce profits. However, not having adequate checks can be fatal. The best practice is to make checks as computationally cheap as possible and to set sensible thresholds that stop truly abnormal behaviour but do not interfere with normal operation. For example, a max order size of, say, 50,000 shares might never be hit during normal scalping activity, but would catch a wild runaway order. Or a per-second order rate limit might be set just above the typical peak – if the algo goes haywire and blasts orders 10x faster than normal, the limiter kicks in. A concrete illustration of risk control importance: During the Flash Crash (2010) , some HFT firms’ algorithms exacerbated the crash by continuing to trade or suddenly withdrawing. In its aftermath, many firms implemented stronger guardrails such as “trading pause triggers” – if market volatility exceeds a certain threshold or if the market data feed becomes inconsistent (a known sign of trouble), their algos will automatically reduce activity or shut off . This ensures they don’t amplify a cascade. As another example, consider momentum ignition or other manipulative patterns – a relatively well-behaved HFT firm wants to avoid even accidentally doing something that looks like manipulation (their's a fine line between legal and illegal). So their algorithms might have logic like: “If we have layered 3 or more orders and none get filled, don’t keep layering” or “Avoid cancelling and flipping sides more than X times in Y seconds.” These are internal policies that also serve as risk/compliance controls. In summary, risk controls are an integral architectural layer of HFT systems, often implemented as the Risk Manager module working closely with the order manager . They enforce trading limits, monitor exposure, and can intervene (or shut down trading) when predefined conditions trip. The ultimate goal is to trade another day – an HFT firm can’t afford a single day of uncontrolled trading that could wipe it out. As Hemang Dave on Linkedin put it in his HFT Architecture article : “While speed is important, robustness, risk management, and system reliability are equally critical. Over-optimizing without proper controls can lead to catastrophic losses.”. Execution Logic and Fill Handling The execution logic of an HFT algorithm governs how it actually places and manages orders to fulfill a desired trade. This is distinct from the high-level “strategy” decision (e.g., decide to go long 2000 shares) – execution logic is the tactical set of rules that achieve that position in the market, given the microstructure. In other words, it’s the layer that turns a trading intention into specific orders, and handles the outcomes (fills or lack thereof). Key aspects of execution logic include: Order Type Selection : Modern markets offer a variety of order types (limit, market, IOC, FOK, midpoint peg, discretion, etc.). HFT algos carefully choose order types that suit their needs. For passive market making, they’ll use limit orders, possibly with pegging (like pegging to midpoint or best bid with some offset) to systematically join the spread. For urgent liquidity, they might use IOC (Immediate-Or-Cancel) orders to avoid posting. Some HFT strategies exploit special order types – e.g., using hidden or iceberg orders if they want to conceal size, or using Add-liquidity-only orders to ensure they get maker rebates or queue priority. An algorithm’s execution module might have logic like: “If spread > X and volatility low, place a passive bid; if spread is tight or we urgently need to exit, send a market order (taker).” Also, certain venues have unique order types that HFTs leverage – e.g., Nasdaq’s Midpoint Peg, IEX’s D-Limit (pegged with protection), etc. Choosing when to use these is part of execution logic. Order Placement and Cancellation Strategy : Execution logic often involves deciding the price level and timing for placing orders, as well as when to cancel or replace them. For example, a market making algo might place a buy limit order one tick below the best bid to improve queue position but not cross the spread. If it’s not filled within, say, 50 milliseconds, maybe it moves the order up or cancels if conditions changed. HFT execution often entails frequent order cancellations – in fact, high cancellation rates (often >90%) are normal as algos continuously adjust their quotes. A fill (execution) might trigger immediate subsequent actions: e.g., if a buy order got partially filled for 100 shares, the algo might cancel the remainder and reposition, or immediately place a sell order to take profit if it was a very short-term scalp. Execution logic is like an “inner control loop” that constantly reacts to feedback: fills, changes in market prices, etc. Fill Handling and Bookkeeping : When an order (or part of it) executes, the system updates its internal state: position changes, cash balance, etc. The execution module ensures all these updates happen atomically and correctly – this is important for risk and for subsequent decisions. For instance, if an HFT strategy sent out 10 orders and 3 get filled, it needs to recognize that it now has that inventory and perhaps cancel the other 7 if they’re no longer needed. Order Book Queue Management : Especially for passive execution, HFT cares about queue position. Execution logic might try to infer how far back in line its order is at a given price. This can be done by estimating how many shares are ahead (from order book data when the order was placed minus any intervening trades). Some algorithms will cancel and re-post if they suspect they are too far back to get a fill in time. For example, an algo might only want to sit in queue if it’s in the top 10% of the queue, otherwise it’s wasting opportunity and could instead try a different approach. This leads to behaviours like order layering and replacing – e.g., sending multiple small orders sequentially to hop closer to the front as other orders cancel, or canceling and re-submitting slightly revised orders to maintain priority. However, note that excessive cancel/replace can cross into “layering” if done with deceptive intent (illegal), so algos tune this carefully for legitimate purposes. Trade Execution Algorithms (Execution Algos) : Within the HFT context, sometimes HFT firms implement their own mini execution algos akin to how brokers/traders use VWAP, TWAP, etc., but on a much faster scale. For instance, if an HFT strategy wants to acquire a large position, it might stealthily do so via a series of small orders to minimize impact – effectively an intra-second TWAP. Another scenario: in futures markets, if an HFT needs to roll over or unwind a position quickly without spooking the book, it may randomize its order size/timing a bit to appear less predictable. These are execution tactics that are part of the algorithm’s design. Some HFT systems separate the logic: the “decision engine” says what to do (buy X amount), and an “execution engine” module decides how to do it optimally (slice into N pieces, stagger them, etc.). Smart Order Cancellation on External Events : Good execution logic is very responsive to context changes . For example, if an algo has a resting buy order and suddenly the market price starts dropping rapidly, it might be prudent to cancel that order to avoid catching a falling knife (unless the strategy explicitly wants to buy the dip). Or if news comes out or a related instrument moves sharply, the execution logic might adjust all working orders. HFT systems implement cancel-on-condition rules: if best bid/ask moves away from our order by more than X, cancel it; if our order is at risk of trading through (e.g., our buy is now above the new best ask due to a flicker), definitely cancel to avoid bad fills. These ensure the algo’s orders don’t get “hung” in dangerous positions. Handling Partial Fills and Remainders : HFT algos rarely show their full hand if it’s sizeable – they tend to get filled in small chunks. The execution logic deals with the case where, say, you wanted 1000 units but only got 300 on the first attempt. It can then reassess: do we still want the remaining 700? If yes, what’s the next step – try again at the same price? move price? try another venue? Or sometimes a partial fill on one side triggers an action on the other side – e.g., a pairs trading strategy got half of its long leg filled, it might start filling the short leg proportionally to stay balanced. In essence, the execution and fill logic is where the market microstructure knowledge is hard-coded. This part of the system embodies all the if-then rules and algorithms that a skilled trader might manually use, but at machine speed. It’s also the part that interacts directly with the exchange via the Exchange Gateway (the software that formats orders to exchange API). An HFT architecture’s components include an Order Manager linked to an Exchange Connection/Gateway , which together handle order placement and acknowledgments. The exchange gateway usually provides confirmation of order receipt and reports fills back; the execution logic must handle these in real-time. Notably, HFT execution often assumes non-blocking, asynchronous operation: the system can send dozens of orders without waiting for each fill confirm – it keeps track of outstanding orders via IDs. This means concurrency issues need to be handled (like two orders filling at once), and careful state management is required. Modern languages and libraries that allow lock-free programming (e.g., using atomic operations for counters) are often employed here to avoid any delays from thread synchronization when updating fills or positions. Feedback Loops and Self-Calibration High-frequency trading algorithms operate in a dynamic environment where market conditions can change in milliseconds. As such, effective HFT systems incorporate feedback loops and self-calibration mechanisms that allow them to adjust their parameters on the fly. This can be thought of as the HFT equivalent of control systems in engineering: the strategy monitors its own performance and the market’s response, and tunes itself for optimal performance or to avoid problems. Some examples of feedback and self-correction in HFT algorithm design: Adaptive Order Placement : An HFT strategy might start by posting at a certain rate or spread, but if it observes that its orders are not getting filled at the expected rate (perhaps because competition increased or volatility changed), it can adjust. For instance, a market maker algo might widen its quotes if it starts getting too many toxic fills (losing money on immediate adverse price moves), which indicates adverse selection. Conversely, if it’s not getting filled at all (perhaps being outcompeted), it might tighten quotes or increase size. This adaptation can occur on very short timescales – e.g., “if 100 successive order placements resulted in zero fills, maybe our price is off; adjust price or size by a small epsilon.” Latency and Queue Position Feedback : As mentioned earlier, HFT algos estimate their queue position. They also measure how long it typically takes to get a fill at a given position. If an algo notices that every time it’s, say, 5th in line it almost never gets filled before the price moves away, it might incorporate that feedback to only post when it expects to be within the top 3. Some advanced strategies use learning algorithms to predict fill probabilities based on current order book state and recent history, and then adjust their posting behavioir accordingly (this borders on machine learning applied to microstructure). Profit and Loss (P&L) Monitoring : An HFT strategy usually has real-time P&L computation. If the strategy’s P&L starts consistently trending negative under certain conditions, that’s a feedback signal. For example, maybe the strategy loses money in the lunchtime period when liquidity is thin – a self-calibrating approach would be to automatically scale down trading during those hours. Some HFT systems will dynamically turn off or on certain sub-strategies based on recent performance. This is akin to regime detection: the system figures out “the current market regime is one where my strategy doesn’t do well, so I’ll trade less aggressively until conditions improve.” Parameter Tuning : Many strategies have parameters (thresholds, aggression levels, etc.). While these are often initially set via offline optimization, HFT systems can also tweak them in production. For instance, a statistical arbitrage strategy might have a parameter for how wide a divergence needs to be to trade. If it finds that signals are too sparse, it could lower the threshold to get more trades (but risking more noise). Alternatively, if it’s getting too many false signals (trades that revert to losses), it might tighten the threshold. Some firms use real-time analytics to estimate the short-term volatility or noise level and adjust strategy parameters accordingly – essentially implementing a volatility filter . For example, a pairs trading algo might widen its band during high volatility so it doesn’t trade on movements that are just random noise. Reinforcement Learning Elements : A cutting-edge approach is to use reinforcement learning agents that continuously learn from market interaction. While full RL in live trading is still experimental, certain elements are used. For example, a market making algorithm can be framed as an RL problem where the agent observes state (order book, positions) and takes actions (place/ cancel orders) with the goal of maximizing profit minus inventory risk. Such an agent would inherently use feedback (rewards) to adjust its policy. Recent research indeed has applied deep reinforcement learning to high-frequency market making, training algorithms that adjust quoting strategies based on observed reward signals . In live deployment, one might not have the RL learn from scratch, but an algorithm could have multiple modes or sub-policies and learn which mode works best in the current market environment (explore/exploit on a meta-level). Execution Feedback : Execution algos often measure slippage – the difference between expected execution price and actual. If slippage starts increasing, the algo might decide to be less aggressive or trade smaller clips. For instance, if an algo is breaking a large order into 500-share lots but sees that every lot is moving the price, it might drop to 200-share lots. This is a feedback loop using market impact observations to calibrate order size. Systematic Self-Test : Some HFT systems periodically run heartbeat orders – tiny, non-risky orders – to gauge latency or market responsiveness. For example, sending a 1-lot order in a quiet instrument to confirm that the trading loop is functioning within normal latency. If the return trip (order send to acknowledgment) is slower than usual, perhaps there’s a system issue and the system might reduce trading until that’s resolved (this overlaps with system health monitoring, but it’s a feedback to the algorithm to possibly halt if infra is lagging). Implementing feedback loops requires careful design to avoid oscillation or unintended consequences. You don’t want your strategy over-correcting (e.g., widening spreads a lot at the first loss and then missing out on profit opportunities). Typically, designers use smoothing or incremental adjustments and perhaps a floor/ceiling on parameters. The adjustments might also be asymmetric: if things are bad, cut risk quickly; if things improve, scale up slowly (an analogy to how traders might manage risk). A good example of self-calibration in a real system is an adaptive market-making model that monitors realized volatility and order flow imbalance . If volatility spikes, the model widens quotes (less inventory, more spread). If order flow becomes one-sided (indicating a trend), the model might skew quotes or reduce size on the losing side to avoid getting run over. Once volatility normalizes, it narrows back. All of this can be automatic. From an implementation perspective, these feedback computations run in parallel with trading. They might operate on aggregated data over seconds or minutes (which in HFT is a long horizon) and then feed new parameter values into the fast trading loop. In highly sophisticated outfits, a meta-algorithm could even temporarily turn off a strategy if it gauges that the strategy is performing significantly worse than expected in current conditions – like a circuit breaker on strategy performance. In summary, feedback loops and self-calibration make HFT algorithms more robust and adaptive . Markets aren’t static, and an algo that was calibrated on last month’s conditions might falter today if nothing is adjusted. By incorporating real-time performance feedback, HFT systems keep themselves tuned close to the optimal operating point. It’s analogous to a high-performance engine with sensors and an ECU that adjusts timing and fuel mixture on the fly for maximal performance and safety. This adaptiveness is one reason HFT firms invest in not just speed, but smarter algorithms – the ability to learn and adjust faster than competitors can be even more important than raw speed in the long run. Market Microstructure-Aware Design Market microstructure – the fine-grained rules and mechanics of how orders interact in an exchange – plays a pivotal role in HFT algorithm design. A successful HFT algorithm is deeply microstructure-aware , meaning it exploits the specific workings of the trading venue: order priority rules, fee structures, available order types, tick sizes, etc. Features that HFT algorithms leverage: Order Priority (Price/Time Priority) : Most order matching engines give priority to the best price, and among orders at the same price, to the earliest order (first-in, first-out queue). HFT algos thus crave being at the front of the queue when they post limit orders. Queue position management is almost an art form in HFT. Strategies will carefully decide which price level to post at – if you post at the best bid, you join the back of the queue; if you improve by one tick, you become first in line at a new best bid (but now you’re crossing a tick and potentially giving up edge). HFTs often improve the quote by the minimal increment to get priority when they sense it’s safe to do so. Some strategies even rotate their orders: if they’ve been sitting and not getting filled (meaning they’re deep in queue and others are ahead getting filled), they might cancel and re-enter the order, effectively moving to the back but resetting the time (this would be counterproductive normally – you lose priority – but if you were so far back that chances of fill were near zero, resetting might not hurt, and could in fact place you ahead of other slow market participants who haven’t updated their orders). However, exchanges have made some rules to discourage frivolous queue resets (e.g., certain markets penalize excessive order updates). Maker-Taker Fees and Rebates : Many equity venues operate on a maker-taker model (liquidity adders get a rebate, takers pay a fee) or the inverse (taker-maker on some venues like BATS). HFT algos absolutely factor in these economics. A strategy might be willing to sell at a slightly lower price on an exchange that gives a high rebate because that rebate offsets the price difference. Or an arbitrage strategy might simultaneously post on multiple venues aiming to collect rebates while capturing a spread. Part of microstructure-aware design is routing orders in a way that maximizes net after-fee P&L. For example, if both NASDAQ and NYSE have the same price, an HFT might prefer the one with the better rebate for adding liquidity – but only if the latency and fill likelihood are comparable. Some sophisticated strategies also rebate arbitrage , where the goal is less about price difference and more about capturing the rebate by providing liquidity and then hedging on another venue. Tick Size Constraints : Each market has a minimum price increment (tick). HFT algos often exploit tick dynamics. In a stock with a relatively large tick (say $0.01) and low price volatility, the inside quotes tend to stick at a level until a trade clears them out. HFT market makers in such stocks can earn the full spread (e.g., buy at $10.00, sell at $10.01) because the tick is wide relative to true value variation. Conversely, in futures or FX where ticks are finer, spreads can be one tick most of the time, so strategies might compete on speed to earn even a fraction of a tick. Queue dynamics are also tick-dependent: if tick size is large, being second in queue still guarantees the same price, so queue position is crucial. If tick size is extremely fine relative to volatility, you might see price flipping frequently by a tick, in which case being at the front is less important than reacting to price changes. HFT algos adapt to this – for instance, knowing whether to join an existing price level or to establish a new one depends on tick size and likelihood of price movement. Order Types and Exchange-Specific Features : Exchanges offer various order types that HFT algos use to their advantage: Midpoint Pegs : e.g., exchanges allow orders pegged to mid-price, which might get better fills if there’s hidden liquidity crossing at midpoint. HFTs providing midpoint liquidity might capture half the spread consistently, but they must predict when midpoint orders will execute (often against hidden or IOC liquidity). Iceberg Orders : These display only a portion of their size. HFT can either use them (if they want to hide size) or detect others’ icebergs (for example, seeing the same price level refresh repeatedly after partial fills is a sign of an iceberg – HFT algos detect this and then may try to execute against it fully by repeatedly taking the displayed part until the iceberg is exhausted). Discretionary and Conditional Orders : Some venues have order types that can automatically adjust (e.g., IEX’s D-Limit which pegs and can move with the CQI signal). HFT algos must understand these – both to use them and to anticipate their effect on the order book. Market-on-Close, Opening Auction orders : HFT firms also play around auctions (opens/closes) – placing orders that participate in the opening or closing auction when that suits the strategy (especially if there’s an imbalance they detect from imbalance feeds). Auction dynamics are different (one large batch match), so algos might have separate logic for that. Latency Arbitrage Considerations (Protected Quotes) : In the U.S., Reg NMS ensures that the best quotes are “protected” – you can’t trade through them. HFT algos exploit this by cross-market arbitrage : e.g., if they see Nasdaq about to update its price, they race to other exchanges to trade before those exchanges update their NBBO. The microstructure angle is that the securities information processor (SIP), which publishes consolidated NBBO, is slower than direct feeds, giving an edge to those with direct feeds who can act before the NBBO officially moves. Many HFT strategies are built around direct-feed vs SIP delays, essentially microstructure quirks of how information disseminates. Some strategies also anticipate which venue’s quote will update next – e.g., if EDGX executes a big trade that clears out liquidity, it will drop from the NBBO, and HFT could quickly adjust quotes elsewhere in anticipation. Exchange Latency and Queue Modeling : Each exchange might have slightly different matching engine latency and mechanics for queuing incoming orders. HFT firms empirically measure how long it takes to get a response from each venue and even how the matching engine processes batch arrivals (e.g., if multiple orders arrive in the same millisecond, does the exchange randomize them or queue by receive time?). Some markets (like certain dark pools or IEX with speed bump) intentionally randomize or delay, which HFT microstructure-aware algos account for – e.g., they know they can’t race someone on IEX due to the 350µs delay, so they adjust their arbitrage logic accordingly (maybe avoiding IEX in races, or using IEX only for certain order types like D-Peg that rely on their signal). Market Structure Differences Across Asset Classes : HFT algorithms are tailored to the specifics of each market type. For instance, equity markets have lit order books and dark pools – HFTs may run strategies that ping dark pools (liquidity detection as discussed) and simultaneously manage lit quotes. Futures markets often have a single central limit order book per contract (no fragmentation like equities), but they have different fee structures and often different priority rules (e.g., CME uses price-time, Eurex uses price-pro rata for some products, etc.). An HFT algo on a pro-rata matching market (common in options or some futures) will use different tactics – e.g., posting larger size can get a proportional fill even if not first in line. So if the algorithm is trading such a product, it might post more size than it actually wants, expecting to cancel the remainder after partial fill (this can be tricky as it edges towards anti-gaming rules – exchanges monitor that too). Adverse Selection Metrics : HFT firms often develop quantitative measures of adverse selection in each venue or for each order type. For example, how often does a posted order that gets filled end up being a loser (price moves against it right after)? They might find that passive fills on Venue A are more toxic than Venue B, perhaps because Venue A is where informed traders aggregate. Then the microstructure-aware move is to post on B more than A , and maybe use A more for aggressive orders only. This kind of venue analysis is a microstructure-informed allocation of trading. In essence, market microstructure-aware design means knowing the game’s rules intimately and designing your playbook around them. HFT algorithms are engineered with the details of each target market in mind – nothing is generic. The code often has per-exchange constants and behaviour toggles. For example, an equity algo might have a table of “exchange characteristics” (rebate, latency, queue estimate model, etc.) that it references when deciding routing or quoting. It will exploit any deterministic rule to its advantage: e.g., if an exchange randomizes queue priority for orders arriving in the same time bucket (some dark pools do), a strategy might try to always slightly stagger its multiple orders to avoid being in the same batch, thereby potentially getting better priority. A case study of microstructure exploitation is how some HFTs handled dark pools pre-2014 : They realized many dark pools were crossing at midpoint without price-time priority – meaning if you send a ping of 100 shares and there’s a 10000 share order resting, you’d get a fill and the big order would shrink, but nobody sees that. HFTs would sequentially ping multiple dark pools with small orders, detect liquidity, then potentially trade more once found. When regulators began cracking down and dark pools changed rules (like minimum order sizes or ping frequency limits), those strategies had to change. This shows how microstructure is not static – exchanges tweak rules and HFT algos must adapt quickly. To conclude, microstructure-aware design is the heart of HFT advantage . Speed is the muscle, but microstructure knowledge is the brain. Whether it’s managing queue position, choosing the perfect order type, arbitraging minute cross-venue rule differences, or leveraging each exchange’s unique features, HFT algorithms derive much of their edge from being designed with these microscopic details in mind . That is why many HFT firms actively participate in exchange advisory committees or read every new rule filing – a tiny rule change (say a new pegged order type, or a new matching engine update) can obsolete some strategies or enable new ones. The algorithms must continually evolve alongside the market’s microstructure.
AMEX:SPY
by oscar_malik
5
$SPY bearish, to break April lows?Most people are thinking that we'll see a correction that goes back to the $560 area and then from there, we'll go to new highs. They also don't think it's likely that we'll retest the lows from April and think it's nearly impossible that we'll break the lows. However, my base case is that we will break the lows. Yes, in the past, most dips like the one in April were good buying opportunities, but the chart looks different here. You can see that ever since April, all we've done is consolidate up into a rising wedge. We look set to break down from that in the coming days. If we do break down and are unable to reclaim the highs, then I think my base case will become the highest probability outcome. I think it's likely that the move down will take us to the $424- 402 levels. Let's see what happens.
AMEX:SPYShort
by benjihyam
25
Introduction to HFT Involvement in financial marketsIntroduction to HFT Involvement in financial markets Market Making algorithms continuously post buy (bid) and sell (ask) limit orders, aiming to earn the bid- ask spread while providing liquidity. HFT market makers function much like traditional market makers but at much higher speed and scale. They simultaneously quote both sides of the market and profit from the small price differential (spread) between bids and asks . Exchanges often incentivize market makers via liquidity rebates (fractions of a penny per share) for adding liquidity, which HFT firms capitalize on through very large trading volumes. Over the past two decades, human specialists have largely been supplanted by automated HFT market makers, which now dominate liquidity provision. Limit orders are prioritized over market orders, which in some capacity is fair; however special order types made for HFT that are just slightly more advanced limit orders are prioritized over regular limit orders but are not accessible by retail investors is very unfair. If you search up the IEX exchange website and look at their order types you can see that they are targeting HFT system creators and retail isn't able to use those products themselves. Statistical Arbitrage (Stat Arb) strategies use quantitative models to exploit pricing inefficiencies among related instruments. In traditional stat arb, a trading system might track a portfolio of securities and identify when price relationships deviate from statistical norms, betting on convergence. In an HFT context, stat arb often means very short-term, high-speed versions of these tactics, sometimes called “data-driven” or “quantitative” HFT strategies. These strategies are market-neutral and typically involve trading a long-short portfolio of correlated assets based on mean reversion expectations. For example, an HFT stat-arb algorithm might monitor price spreads between an ETF and its underlying basket of stocks, or between index futures and the index’s component equities, and rapidly trade to exploit divergences before they close. One common HFT arbitrage is index arbitrage – comparing the real-time value of an index future (say the S&P 500 E-mini) with the aggregated price of the index’s constituent stocks. If the future is temporarily overpriced relative to the underlying, the algo will sell the future and buy the basket (or vice versa), capturing a virtually risk-free profit as prices realign. This is a relatively difficult strategy but is also the strategy I primarily focus on building since as someone who lacks resources, it is the one thing I can make, test, and deploy from my computer. Latency Arbitrage strategies exploit tiny timing differences in information arrival between trading venues or market participants. If one market moves slightly before another, an HFT latency-arb algorithm can capitalize by racing to trade on the slower venue with knowledge of the price change that is about to occur. In essence, this is a race condition: the fastest trader to react to new information can “pick off” resting orders on venues that have not yet updated their prices. Latency arbitrage is often considered a predatory strategy – it’s been described as effectively front-running public information by virtue of speed. Virtually every time you place a trade through a broker, one of these systems will profit off you buy being payed a maker taker fee for bringing you to an exchange; this isn't fair since in many cases you'll be brought to the BATS exchange which pays the taker and charges the maker (every other exchange does the opposite) and you'll still be stuck paying a commission that someone else profits from. Event-Driven HFT strategies focus on trading around news or specific trigger events. These algorithms rapidly analyze real-time news feeds, economic data releases, earnings reports, or even social media, and execute trades before human traders can react. In the modern market, machine-readable news feeds and NLP (Natural Language Processing) models are integrated directly into some HFT systems. For example, an event-driven algo might parse a company’s earnings press release the instant it appears and decide to buy or sell the stock based on whether results beat or miss expectations – all within milliseconds. HFT firms subscribe to low-latency news services and sometimes even co-locate servers near newswire sources to get a time advantage in receiving the information. This is self explanatory, just whatever system can react to news the fastest wins. Some of the more controversial HFT strategies involve detecting liquidity and exploiting it, or conversely avoiding adverse selection from toxic order flow. Liquidity detection algorithms (sometimes called “pinging” strategies) attempt to sniff out hidden orders and large trading interest in the market. HFT firms may send out a flurry of tiny orders – often immediate-or-cancel (IOC) orders for 100 shares or 1 lot – across different price levels or venues to probe for supply or demand. If these pinging orders get hits (even partial fills), it indicates the presence of a large buyer or seller hidden in the order book or a dark pool. The HFT’s algorithm can then escalate its activity: for example, if a ping reveals a big buyer in a dark pool, the HFT might buy up shares on other venues and then sell into the buyer’s demand at a higher price. I'd compare this to playing call of duty and throwing a stun grenade into a room before entering, if someone gets stunned and you get +25 points, you know to move in immediately, and if you don't stun someone, you may proceed with caution. Momentum Ignition refers to a strategy where a trader deliberately attempts to ignite a rapid price movement – up or down – and capitalize on the frenzy that follows. An HFT or algorithmic trader employing momentum ignition will initiate a series of aggressive orders (market orders or large trades) in a short span, hoping to spark other algorithms or investors to also start buying or selling, thereby driving the price further in that direction. Once momentum takes hold, the instigator can profit by flipping their position (for example, buying shares to start an up-move, then selling into the rally they created). This is what happens every time you see newsa drop and the price of the stock goes in the opposite direction for a split second Spoofing and Layering are abusive tactics where a trader places non-genuine orders to mislead other market participants about supply or demand, with the intent to cancel those orders before execution. They are illegal in most jurisdictions (for example, spoofing was explicitly outlawed in the US via the 2010 Dodd- Frank Act). These tactics deserve discussion both to understand how rogue algorithms might attempt them and how modern systems detect and prevent them. Currently an order can be cancelled in 0.5 seconds after it has been placed legally. In essence all of these are ways of fooling retail and institutional investors to profit off their lack of knowledge; I think its important to be informed hence I am pointing this out and publicizing it. There are 100's of pages on the federal registry that will tell you how HFT algorithms are screwing you (the retail investor) over and with all that being said I believe that investing should be left to computers as they have taken over the market. It isn't fair but it's how the world works now. You are just liquidity swimming in pools for larger fish to feed off.
AMEX:SPY
by oscar_malik
11
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 6-12: BaseRally In Trend ModeToday's pattern suggests the markets may attempt to identify a base and move higher (rally) off that base level. Given the overnight price activity, I suggest the process of identifying the base level could prompt a deeper early decline in price - possibly attempting to retest 595-597 lows before finding support and attempting to rally. As I've been warning over the past few weeks/months, I'm still seeing the Excess Phase Peak pattern playing out as a Flag Termination - rolling into a downtrend and attempting to move back towards the $480 lows as a real possibility. I've been warning and watching for the breakdown in trend - but we've not seen it yet. Thus, we are still BULLISH until we get a confirmation of a solid breakdown. That would be a move below the 580-585 level at this point. We need to see some type of solid breakdown in price, breaking away from the FLAG setup and moving downward, before I could confidently suggest the Flag Breakdown has happened. Gold and Silver are making a big move higher. Gold is finally starting to move back above $3400 and I believe watching Silver, Gold, & Platinum rally suggests FEAR is elevating as we move into the end of June. I still believe Gold has a chance to rally above $4k before the end of June. We'll see if it happens. BTCUSD is moving into a DUAL-EPP pattern. This is very interesting. Watch the video as I highlight why this could prompt a dual-stage EPP breakdown in Bitcoin over the next 20 to 50+ days. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
Thesis on the SPY ETF being rigged (live demonstration 5/5/25)Worlds Saddest Story I have an algorithm running to find order block's in the form of resistance in the market at any given time. Here I will show the power of computers and how they both effectively and unknowingly create a repeatable system than unfortunately rigs the market to act in predictable ways. This theory will be tested at open today and lucky souls who find this thesis before open will have a rare opportunity to witness these events unfold. The events I am referring to are the SPY ETF opening at or around 597.75~ and immediately creating the high point of the day and promptly descending to create a market drop that exceeds 1% by EOD. While it is rather unfortunate and unfair that the stock market, a once globally competitive market for people to fund ventures, has now turned into a profit making machine for math specialists who have an knack for understanding price movements that inevitably widens the wealth gap for the rich that can afford to invest in computer driven algorithms, while the working man must try to create their own system that CAN NEVER consistently beat the machine. TL/DR: Bet on the SPY ETF making a high off open and plummeting over 1%
AMEX:SPYShort
by oscar_malik
6
$SPY – Bearish Momentum Meets Spiral Timing🌀 AMEX:SPY – Spiral Timing, Macro Tension, and Bearish Momentum Brewing Not financial advice. Short-term sentiment shifted bearish. I’ve been tracking AMEX:SPY using both Fibonacci retracements and Fib spirals across the daily and weekly timeframes, and we’re now at a critical inflection zone. My sentiment has shifted more cautiously bearish in the short term, while acknowledging upside remains intact on the longer timeframes. 🔍 Macro Backdrop: Pressure Building CPI Data (May) came in at 2.4%, slightly higher than April’s 2.3%, but still below forecast — showing inflation is sticky but not accelerating. Geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran flared again over the weekend, adding risk-off pressure to already fragile sentiment. Market volatility remains high, with trillions of dollars swinging across a narrow window — validating shorter Fib cycles and accelerated price exhaustion. 🧭 Daily Chart Analysis: December 2024 High → April 2025 Low I used a bearish Fib retracement from the December 2024 highs to the April 2025 lows. SPY has now retraced nearly 100% of that drop, currently hovering between the 0.786 and 0.886 retracement levels — which often act as exhaustion zones in corrective rallies. The Fib spiral from the April low shows we’ve lost the initial vertical trendline that marked the recovery leg — a shift in momentum tone. MACD has remained flat for 16 sessions, with a bearish divergence confirmed on Friday (6/13/25). Momentum, which briefly turned positive on Thursday, flipped sharply back negative by week’s end. 📆 Weekly Chart Structure: March 2020 → Feb 2025 The weekly spiral, drawn from the March 2020 low to the February 2025 high, reflects a similar pattern: → Price is moving beyond the arc and approaching the vertical time marker, a zone where reversals or expansions often occur. Long-term trend remains bullish, but short-term action suggests compression ahead of a possible pullback. 🔥 Spiral Interpretation Reminder: The Fib spiral doesn’t predict direction — it identifies time-based pressure points. When price crosses the arc or vertical band, volatility often follows. 🎯 Key Trade Levels: Breakdown Watch: → Close below $595, then $587 could trigger downside toward $560 (0.618) and $545 (0.5) levels from the retracement Breakout Watch: → A confirmed breakout above $609 (full retrace from the Fib) would invalidate the short-term bear thesis and resume bullish continuation 🤔 Positioning Outlook: I’m tactically bearish here. The technicals show: Momentum divergence Fib exhaustion Spiral confluence Macro pressure mounting I don’t think the long-term trend is broken — but we’re entering a time window for volatility, and that often brings opportunity on both sides. Short setups may offer better risk/reward right now if we see confirmation. Would love to hear your bias here — bear trap brewing or topping process?
AMEX:SPYShort
by Spaceforcex