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Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 3, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 3, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🏭 U.S. Manufacturing Slump Persists U.S. manufacturing contracted for the third consecutive month in May, with new orders, backlogs, production, and employment all declining. Trade-war disruptions and elevated input costs continue to squeeze factory margins, setting the stage for today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI release 🌐 Global Trade Tensions Weigh on Stocks Renewed U.S.–China tariff threats sent the S&P 500 lower overnight, as investors fear higher costs for exporters and slower global growth. Futures pointed to another rough open for $SPY/ SP:SPX 📈 China Caixin PMI Exceeds Expectations China’s May Caixin Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 50.8, signaling stabilization in export-oriented factories despite ongoing trade uncertainty. That positive surprise may offer some support to Asian equities today 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Tuesday, June 3: 8:30 AM ET – ISM Manufacturing PMI (May) Measures U.S. factory-sector health; readings below 50 indicate contraction. Today’s survey will confirm if the May downturn persists. 10:00 AM ET – Construction Spending (April) Tracks monthly change in total construction outlays—an important gauge of housing and infrastructure investment trends. 1:00 PM ET – 10-Year Treasury Note Auction Benchmark auction that influences the yield curve. Weak demand or higher yields here can pressure equities, especially growth-oriented sectors. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 6-2 : Post Market UpdateHuge move for metals today. Absolutely incredible. Hope you GOT SOME. BTCUSD and the SPY/QQQ stalled somewhat flat today. SPY was up 0.50% - nothing huge. Going to be interesting to see how things play out in the Asian/European markets tonight. Buckle up. Could be some very big moves hitting this week. GET SOME. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
7
SPY (S&P 500 ETF) – Inflection at Fib Resistance | Dual-Scenario🗓️ June 2, 2025 | 📈 1H Chart | ⚠️ Risk-Off Signal Building? 🔹 Current Price: $592.98 🔺 Key Resistance: $595.54–$597.36 (1.0–1.236 Fib Extension) 🔻 Gap Support: $565.51 🎯 Bullish Target: $604.05–$604.90 (1.382–1.618 Extension) 🔎 Technical Structure: Trendline Rejection Zone: SPY is pressing into a multi-tap descending resistance. Any failure to break convincingly could invite strong selling. Fibonacci Overlap: $595–597 aligns with major Fib extensions—potential exhaustion zone. Gap Unfilled: The $565.51 gap remains untested and could magnet price in the event of a rejection. Volatility Funnel Forming: Narrowing structure implies imminent directional move. 🌐 Macro Landscape: Fed Watch: The June 12 FOMC is the next volatility trigger. Fed Funds Futures are pricing in only a ~10% probability of a cut. Hawkish hold expected. Earnings Season Winds Down: Lack of new fundamental catalysts could increase technical relevance. Liquidity: Reverse repo balances are falling, suggesting reduced short-term liquidity—typically bearish for risk assets. Inflation Watch: Sticky Core PCE remains above 2.75% YoY—Fed unlikely to ease aggressively. 📉 Risk Management: Short Bias Setup: Entry: $595–597 rejection Stop: $598.5–599 (Above 1.236 Fib) Target: $577 (mid-Fib) → $565.51 (gap close) R:R ~3:1 Bullish Breakout Plan: Entry: Confirmed breakout + hold above $598 Stop: $593.50 Target: $604–605 R:R ~2.5:1 Volatility Hedge: Consider using VIX calls or SPX put spreads to hedge directional risk around key Fed dates. 🎲 Probabilities: Scenario Chance Commentary Pullback to $565 Gap 65% Strong resistance + weakening breadth + macro headwinds Breakout to $604 35% Requires bullish macro surprise or liquidity-driven melt-up 🔔 Action Plan: Fade rallies into resistance unless a high-volume breakout confirms. Use stop discipline and hedge exposure into macro events. Stay nimble. 💬 Thoughts? Are we due for a flush or prepping for a face-ripper?
AMEX:SPY
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 6-2 : Gap Breakaway PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY may attempt a GAP Breakaway in Trend mode (likely BULLISH). But, the Russia/Ukraine war is overshadowing that potential pattern as big news this morning. From what I can tell, Russia is mounting a large-scale attack after Ukraine launched a big drone attack targeting Russian aircraft. No matter how you slide and dice this news, it means this conflict is entering a new phase. A possibly much more destructive phase for all involved. Gold and Silver are reacting to this news by skyrocketing higher. I believe this upward move in metals could continue for many days/weeks as long as this conflict continues to grow. BTCUSD is trading slightly downward right now, but not as much as I would have expected based on the news. We'll see how BTCUSD plays out this week and if we get a bigger breakdown over time. Currently, if you had actively hedged your positions, I believe you will be OK this week as Metals seem to be the big movers right now. The SPY/QQQ should react to this war news, but being somewhat isolated from this conflict economically, we may not see any huge moves in the US markets today. Overall, hedge your positions to protect against surprise news/risks and try to prepare for the longer-term swings. Volatility will stay elevated over the next few weeks.. So, GET SOME. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
6
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 2–6, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 2–6, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🏭 U.S. Manufacturing Slump Ahead of June PMI Markets are bracing for Tuesday’s ISM Manufacturing PMI (June 3), with economists forecasting a reading below 50.0, signaling continued factory contraction amid slowing global demand and lingering tariff uncertainty. 🛢️ OPEC+ Meeting to Determine Output Path On Thursday, OPEC+ convenes to decide production levels for July. Expectations center on a modest output cut extension to support prices, with Brent crude trading near $65/bbl ahead of the decision. 💻 Tech Stocks Eye Semiconductor Legislation Investors are monitoring Congress’s debate over the Chips Act extension. Senate committee hearings this week could accelerate funding for U.S. chip manufacturing—an upside catalyst for NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:AMD , and $MU. 🌐 China’s Caixin PMI Signals Pivot China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI (June 6) is expected to edge above 50.0, indicating a stabilization in smaller export-focused factories. A better-than-expected print could lift global risk sentiment. 🏢 Fed Officials Remain Dovish Fed Governor Michelle Bowman and New York Fed President John Williams speak this week, reiterating that rate hikes are “on pause.” Their remarks should clarify the Fed’s view on inflation cooling and potential rate cuts late 2025. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Monday, June 2: 10:00 AM ET: Factory Orders (April) Tracks dollar volume of new orders for manufactured goods—an early gauge of industrial demand. 📅 Tuesday, June 3: 8:30 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing PMI (May) Measures U.S. factory-sector health. A reading below 50 indicates contraction. 10:00 AM ET: Construction Spending (April) Reports monthly change in total construction outlays—key for housing and infrastructure trends. 1:00 PM ET: 10-Year Treasury Note Auction Benchmark auction that can shift yield curve and influence $SPY/ SP:SPX positioning. 📅 Wednesday, June 4: 10:00 AM ET: Factory Orders (April) Dollar volume of new orders for manufactured goods. (Repeat for emphasis on industrial slowdown.) 2:00 PM ET: Fed Governor Michelle Bowman Speaks Comments on inflation and monetary policy outlook. 📅 Thursday, June 5: 8:30 AM ET: JOLTS Job Openings (April) Tracks number of unfilled positions—a barometer of labor-market tightness. 10:00 AM ET: OPEC+ Press Conference (Post-Meeting) Details on production quotas—critical for energy-sector flow. 📅 Friday, June 6: 8:30 AM ET: Nonfarm Payrolls (May) Monthly change in U.S. employment—core for Fed policy outlook. 8:30 AM ET: Unemployment Rate (May) Percentage of labor force unemployed—key gauge of labor-market health. 8:30 AM ET: Average Hourly Earnings (May) Tracks wage trends—important for consumer spending and inflation. 10:00 AM ET: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May, preliminary) Measures health of China’s smaller export-oriented factories. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
SPY dowsing roadmap for this weekI've been posting the weekly readings my dowsing has given for SPY's potential price movement the past couple months and it's really interesting. I go week by week, but am starting to include each day of the week looking forward. I left on the chart the prior notations from those ideas I've posted & you can reference what I had versus what actually occurred. This week is quite negative. I've had the number around $562-62 coming up for a while, & beyond that, around the $542-48 area as I recall. I don't really get any positive gain over last week's close. We'll see what happens.
AMEX:SPYShort
by JenRz
Spy Road To $600 🔥 SPY Price Thesis – Breakout or Breakdown Setup SPY is setting up for a potential breakout above the $595 extension level, with upside to $602–$608. However, $582 remains a key support. A break below $582 could trigger a momentum flush to $567. Level 🔵 $595.60 – Fib Extension (161.8%) from the March → April swing High-probability breakout trigger 🟢 $602.40 – $608.20 – Fib 200% and exhaustion zone from the same swing Final extension if bullish momentum sustains 🟡 $582.00 – Institutional VWAP reaccumulation zone Strong demand/support 🔴 $567.40 – Prior weekly pivot low + anchored VWAP bounce level Breakdown target if $582 fails Trend Signal: Bullish bias confirmed — Higher Highs + EMA Cloud still pointing up Momentum: MACD Histogram turning back up, crossover brewing Volume: Above average on green days; no true distribution yet Supertrend Zone: Still green on 4H and 1D Custom Signal Confluence Score: > 75% (Strong Buy Zone aligning above $588) 🔁 Fibonacci Analysis Measured from April swing low (~$505) to May high (~$573): 🔹 161.8% = $595.60 🔹 200% = $602.40 🔹 261.8% = $608.20 (max extension target) 📉 On Breakdown: From $573 high to $558 retracement low: 0.618 retrace = $582.00 ← Current support zone Full retrace & bear trap zone = $567.40 Smart Money Strategy: Above $595: Long breakout entries (Calls, zero DTE) Below $582: Hedge with Puts or inverse ETF Key Catalyst Triggers: Jobs data, CPI, or Fed commentary could force the move As Always Safe Trades and JoeWtrades
AMEX:SPYLong
by JoeWtrades
579 gap will be filled.Happens all the time. Chart shows an incredibly large gap. if you lower the deviation on your gap indicator a small gap can appear below this very large gap. i have seen on numerous... NUMEROUS occasions when this gap gets filled and then has a nice rebound(not necessarily sustained). I don't know if it will happen tomorrow, but if there starts to be a sustained selloff in the days ahead i will feel confident that this is the target. 579 is the price. again, it could happen on monday or it could happen next monday. i have no idea what the market is going to do from day to day, but keep this level in mind.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Fraggle_Rock
$spyyieahhh Back after getting crushed last 2 months, but hey at least we are having fun 'they say'. Interesting set of patterns. long term uptrend. Looking at a dip to 563 over next month hopefully. Bunch of confluences there: 1. High volume at 560 (there's a volume gap right below 585 which would make this a quick move down. 2. Mid point of the long term parallel channel. 3. 61% fib of entire move down. You would expect next long term target to be the upper test of the channel, 620s. Let's see how this move down, if we have any goes. Yieahhhh
AMEX:SPYShort
by rubfigue
SPY Trapped in Gamma – Big Move Loading or Just Dealer Chop? 📊 SPY GEX Daily (Options Sentiment Breakdown) SPY closed at $589.39, and we’re now seeing tight compression between call resistance at 592–595 and heavy put walls down at 586 and 580. Gamma is stacked on both sides — a dealer tug-of-war. Unless we break cleanly above or below this zone, expect whipsaw chop. GEX Breakdown: 🟩 Call wall at 595, with strong dealer hedging from 592 up to 600. 🟥 Massive negative GEX starting at 586 → 580 → 575, all with dense put walls (–79.88% at PUT Support). 🔻 IVR is 18 and falling – nobody’s paying up for protection yet, but things could move fast once they do. 💡 Options Playbook (Based on GEX): Neutral-to-Bearish: Fade pops near 592–595, use 595c/600c credit spread or play 585p/575p vertical if 586 breaks. Bullish Flip: If we break and hold over 595, gamma flips positive fast → play Jul 19 600c or 595/605 spread. This is a gamma box — price likely stuck 586–595 unless volume shifts dealer hedging or macro breaks out. 🕵️‍♂️ 1H Price Structure (Swing & Intraday Planning) SPY 1H still showing weak structure. Multiple CHoCHs and BOSs bouncing around the same zone. Price got rejected from the purple supply at 592, and is now hovering around 589–590, still trapped under a descending trendline. What stands out: 📉 Structure = lower highs + broken BOS → short-term bearish. 📦 Supply pressure between 590.5–593.9, demand sits down at 573–576. 💣 Bearish readings across BBP, MACD, Stoch — and market breadth thinning. 📈 Swing Bias: Short under 590–592 → target 586 first, then 580 if momentum kicks in. Bullish case only resumes on clean break above 595. 📊 Intraday Plan: Fade pop to 590.5–592 for scalp short (look for lower highs). Bounce off 586 is playable for scalp long — but keep stops tight. Until SPY breaks out of this gamma trap, you want to scalp or spread trade with discipline. No need to swing for home runs here. 🧠 Final Thoughts SPY is pinned between high call resistance and aggressive put support. The GEX box says: "Be patient or get chopped." We need either macro news or volume spike to break the hedging stalemate. IV is low, so positioning ahead of a breakout (via spreads or small directional bets) could pay off — just manage size tightly. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is educational commentary only. Always manage your own risk, and never trade based on someone else’s analysis alone.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
SPY Weekly Options Outlook — June 1, 2025📉 SPY Weekly Options Outlook — June 1, 2025 🚨 AI Model Consensus: Moderately Bearish into June 6 Expiry 🧠 AI Model Breakdown 🔹 Grok (xAI) Bias: Moderately Bearish Technical: Price below 10-EMA, RSI cooling, MACD divergence. Trade: Buy $589P @ $4.72 → PT +50%, SL if SPY > $591 🔹 Claude (Anthropic) Bias: Moderately Bearish Technical: Short-term cooling, daily trend still intact. Trade: Buy $573P @ $0.94 → PT 100%, SL 50%, exit by Wed 🔹 Gemini (Google) Bias: Neutral Technical: M5 bearish, daily bullish = mixed. Trade: No trade today due to inconclusive bias 🔹 Llama (Meta) Bias: Slightly Bullish Technical: M5 bullish EMAs, daily MACD bearish Trade: Buy $590C @ $5.20 → PT +20%, SL −50% 🔹 DeepSeek Bias: Moderately Bearish Technical: Breakdown below support, MACD/RSI bearish Trade: Buy $588P @ $4.27 → PT near $585, SL at $590.50 ✅ Consensus Takeaways 4 of 5 models favor bearish or moderately bearish direction Max Pain at $585 = common gravitational level Momentum showing weakness, especially intraday Only Llama sees upside bias; Gemini stays out due to signal conflict 🎯 Recommended Trade Setup 💡 Strategy: Bearish Naked Weekly Put 🔘 Ticker: SPY 📉 Direction: PUT 🎯 Strike: $588 💵 Entry: $4.32 (ask) 🎯 Profit Target: $6.00 (+39%) 🛑 Stop Loss: $2.16 (−50%) 📏 Size: 1 contract 📅 Expiry: 2025-06-06 ⏰ Entry Timing: Market Open 📈 Confidence: 70% ⚠️ Key Risks to Monitor ⚖️ Daily uptrend still intact — bounce possible at support 📉 Low VIX = limited volatility expansion (slower premium growth) 🔺 Watch for quick reversals or news spikes above $590 that can hit stop-loss ⌛ Theta ramps midweek — trade must move early 📊 TRADE DETAILS (JSON) json Copy Edit { "instrument": "SPY", "direction": "put", "strike": 588.0, "expiry": "2025-06-06", "confidence": 0.70, "profit_target": 6.00, "stop_loss": 2.16, "size": 1, "entry_price": 4.32, "entry_timing": "open", "signal_publish_time": "2025-06-02 09:30:00 UTC-04:00" }
AMEX:SPYShort
by quantsignals
Bullish on SPY!What I have understand is that market negatively reacts to Tariff implementation. This is the market sentiment. Since Tariffs have been paused, cut off, or delayed to another time. Most courts are suspending the Trump Tariff. Market has been behaving positively, It has also broken the previous small resistance at the price $575. And has also retracement. If you put moving average of 10, you can see it has retested below level but closes above the MA which is a good signal. I believe SPY will touch $607 within 2 weeks from now, and hopefully a fundamental news will break the $610 level. And it is common sense if SPY moves rapidly upwards, almost all of the SP500 companies will go up ( not all). And I think buying stocks that are already at the high resistance level is good if what I think will happen.
AMEX:SPYLong
by FinExcel
Here's what we've got going into next weekSo here's what I see going into next week, The SPY is in a tight little area and what that means is expect extreme volatility, we break to the downside were heading to the gap, if we break to the upside we're going to new all time highs, my bias is to the down side because we've got a lot of bad news coming in especially with China Looking at Taiwan, also it seems market sentiment Is to the downside, but darn it this thing still keeps climbing higher. I'm going to be going short and buying put options,,this is in my opinion, and what I am doing for myself,, you do you, do your own analysis and research. I blame no one for my mistakes, Even though I would like to, but nobody makes me buy or sell, I am the one that must enter that order and I take responsibility for my actions, I have come to learn that I am gifted with making money on the short term scalping markets, but will quickly become a loss because I hold on longer, my education has costed me thousands and thousands of dollars over the decades, And I am still learning, Praise be to God.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Following1
SPY (S&P 500 ETF) – Fibonacci Reversal + Bullish Continuation SeThis chart highlights a potential retracement zone before a major continuation leg to the upside, based on Fibonacci levels and price structure. 📊 Technical Breakdown Current Price: $589.39 Recent High: $595.54 (Fibonacci 1.0) Key Fibonacci Levels: 0.618 → $562.28 (First retracement target) 0.5 → $555.57 0.382 → $547.38 Critical Support: $552.15 (confluence with historical demand & fib zone) Projected Target (1.382 Fib Extension): $629.02 🧠 Probabilistic Interpretation 🔻 Short-term pullback toward $552.15 = 60% probability based on multiple rejections from 0.886/1.0 Fib zones. 🔼 Continuation to $629.02 = 70% probability if price finds support at golden ratio (0.618) or 0.5 zone. 🧠 Structure favors smart money re-accumulation after engineered liquidity grab. 🌐 Macro Context (as of May 31, 2025) Fed Watch: Market pricing in 70% chance of no rate cut in June. July data will be crucial. VIX: Suppressed, but starting to rise—indicative of market hedging short-term volatility. Earnings season: Mixed signals—AI sector outperforms while cyclicals lag. 🚨 Trade Plan for Professionals Watch for price action near $555–552. Enter long upon bullish engulfing or SMC confirmation at demand zone. First TP: $595.50 Final TP: $628.80–$629.02 SL: Below $541.72 (Fib 0.382) 🧠 Final Note This chart reflects a classic Fibonacci retracement & extension structure that institutional traders often monitor. Aligns with DSS and WaverVanir’s discretionary outlook. #SPY #SMP500 #FibLevels #SmartMoney #LiquiditySweep #WaverVanir #TechnicalAnalysis #FibonacciTrading #TradingView
AMEX:SPY
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
SpyGoing over Spy Dow jones NYA I'll keep this mostly cylicals and broader market.. I've written up a qqq post where I cover most tech indexes.. Let's start with NYSE or TVC:NYA This covers 3000 stocks.. you ever read about weak breadth in the market? Well when ever this is Lagging behind nasdaq and the market is being dragged along by 6 tech stocks then that's what it means. Ok so last week when the Spy dumped from 595 to 575 in 2 days, a big part of that was NYA ran into a brick wall here at 20,000 as you can see. Add to that price had formed a rising wedge from the melt up from April lows.. So price rejected at 20,000 on NYA but bounced at its 200sma similar to Spy at 575 which let's you know how connected the 2 are So now we go into this week here literally 1% away from that same resistance.. Nothing moves NYA and IWM more than the monthly jobs, this is because Job numbers reflect economic strength and a weaker economy will impact Cylicals and small caps the most .. I don't think we break above that trendline resistance, too much uncertainty around Tariffs, Also here's the weekly RSI on NYA dating back 2yrs At resistance and divergent... I think we break below the 200sma this week Either with Wed ADP or Friday nonfarm payrolls.. Usually to get below the 200sma it takes a GAP down so that's why I think the action takes place pre market on some data. TVC:DJI Dow jones I'm conflicted a little here. Price is stuck below trendline resistance and 200ma But price is also showing a possible bullish H&S inside a Pennant. Dow jones would only be bullish above 43,000.. As you can see there is not anymore room fawk around.. price will break in either direction come next week.. I'm leaning to the bearish side here but things only get seriously bearish back below 40,000 because that would put it back inside that April box 2 of the sectors that really moves the dow is Financials and Health Look at this XLF weekly chart Price is distributing at a 15yr resistance Zoomed in Looks like a 2022 repeat about to happen as early as this fall The position XLF is in makes me doubt Financials will lend a boosting hand here . XLV - health care on the other hand looks really bullish short term Daily channel shows a 7% upside to channel top Daily rsi showing bullish Divergence So health could offset some of the dow losses but not enough if tech and Financials rollover. Lastly my number one reason I'm bearish on the dow is DJT or dow jones transportation Weekly candle stuck below 15,000, trendline resistance , 20 and 200ma. Seasonality June and July is bullish for DJT because of the traveling but if they can't break above this area in the middle of its best seasonality then nothing is safe Lastly Spy ALWAYS KNOW WHERE YOUR MOVING AVERAGES ARE BEFORE YOU TAKE A TRADE! Me personally I only use 20,50,200.. EMA and SMA. I say this because the area of spy 572-577 has a powering of moving averages on both weekly and daily time frames If spy breaks below 570 then we are headed straight for this box. 547-550 Below that and it's death for the bulls.. if it bounces there then we'll see what happens Weekly RSI same as NYA .. at resistance So here's a 4 hr chart.. As you can see, rising wedge.. But pay attention to the yellow trendline resistance. That range is 590-584.. A open below 582 and it's a short to 575.. A open above 593 and it's one last long to 600 before the big short 585-592 is choppy and I wouldn't trade it Like I said earlier, you normally never see price intra day slide below the daily 200sma .. so if they are going to break below 575 this week ( I believe) then they will do it pre market. I don't think this week will be all doom and gloom. Why? Because of NQ 4hr moneyflow.. it's gotten too oversold so they are likely to have a tech pop this week probably Tues or wed which I think will be your opportunity to position short
AMEX:SPYShort
by ContraryTrader
5