SPY: Maybe today we could see this. Just a random thought and analysis. Would be fun if we see this waterfall today.
SPY trade ideas
2007 Top /2025 day 38td t-minus 2.5 days Major TOP The chart in focus is the 2007 chart we are now day 38 in the pattern and in 2007 we took 40td to make a new high And I have posted my models .I see the next rally to reach anywhere from 6035/on the low end to 6177 on the high end focus 6147 where Ax 1.618 = wave C or 3 Best of trades WAVETIMER
Opening (IRA): SPY September 19th 500 Short Put... for a 5.02 credit.
Comments: Adding at intervals at strikes better than what I currently have on, targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit. Will look to manage positions as I come to them.
$SPY // May 30 2025 // Analysis & Targets for Day TradersAMEX:SPY // May 30 2025 // Analysis & Targets for Day Traders
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 5-30 : CRUSH PatternToday's CRUSH pattern should result in a continued downward price trend in my analysis is accurate. I have seen CRUSH pattern trend upward sometimes. So, please understand I'm reading the chart and pattern as a rolling top type of pattern leading to a CRUSH (downward) price trend today.
I highlight the potential for a FAILED CRUSH (downward) price bar - whereas a reversion back to the upside is a potential. But, I estimate that potential at only 20-25% at this time.
My analysis suggests the breakdown in price will likely continue, and we'll likely see the SPY/QQQ/Bitcoin continue to try to trend downward.
Gold and Silver are moving into a fairly solid Gap-Stall-Revert-Flush pattern that may see Gold attempt to rally back above $3400 today. Silver is currently trading very close to a STDDEV Reversion level, so Silver may not see a big move today (like Gold).
I'm hopeful we start to see a big breakaway move in Gold/Silver today and carry into next week.
My TTScanner algos generated new BUY triggers for GDX, GDXJ, and NUGT yesterday. That's a very good sign we are getting into a BUY/BULLISH mode in metals again.
I got up late today. Somehow, my alarms got turned off.
Happy Friday.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
Finally A pull Back But How FarOk guys bad news on market; what we need is another 1 day or 2 sell off to be confirm direction change
I believe gaps will be filled if they past the fill part then bye bye market
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 30, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 30, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🤝 Debt-Ceiling Deal Advances
The U.S. House passed a bipartisan framework extending the federal borrowing limit through September, easing immediate default fears and lifting risk assets.
📉 Bond Yields Retreat
After surging above 4.6% earlier this week, the 10-year Treasury yield dipped back toward 4.5%, helping equities recover from recent rate-driven pullbacks.
⛽ Oil Inventories Jump
API data showed a 5.2 million-barrel build in U.S. crude stocks last week, sending oil prices lower and weighing on energy sector names.
🚗 Tesla Price Cut Spurs EV Rally
Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) cut Model 3 prices by 3% in the U.S., igniting a broader EV stock rally as investors priced in renewed demand ahead of summer driving season.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Friday, May 30:
8:30 AM ET: Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for April
Measures core inflation trends—Fed’s preferred gauge of consumer-price pressures.
10:00 AM ET: Pending Home Sales for April
Tracks signed contracts on existing homes; a leading indicator for the housing market.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
The TACO Trade Is Back!🌮 AMEX:SPY
📊 The Setup:
The TACO trade ("Trump Always Chickens Out") continues to prove its resilience in the face of trade war headlines. The market dips sharply when tariffs are announced, and then surges back up as the news cycle turns, with Trump pausing or reversing his decisions.
We’ve seen multiple examples of this year-to-date on the AMEX:SPY chart:
🔹 Trump Pauses Tariffs for Canada & Mexico – market bounces.
🔹 Trump Pauses Most Liberation Day Tariffs – another bounce.
🔹 Trump Floats Lowering Tariffs on China – bounce continues.
🔹 Trump Pushes Back EU Tariffs to July – market rips higher.
It’s as if every tariff tantrum is followed by an inevitable rebound. Could this be the pattern to trade around for the next few months?
At this point, it almost feels like we’re watching a predictable movie. Every new threat to impose tariffs or spark a trade war is just a scene in the “TACO” storyline, and the markets are starting to get used to the plot twist.
Are we playing into an endless loop of fear and relief? Is this time different, or just the same old TACO? How much longer can we trust that the market will “chicken out” and bounce back every time tariffs are floated?
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-29 : Harami Inside patternToday's pattern suggests the SPY will stall within yesterday's body range and possibly trend a bit downward (after NVDA news/earnings).
I don't see the markets really extending much higher today as we are moving into a sideways Harami pattern, then into a CRUSH pattern tomorrow.
Gold and Silver are really making a big move higher this morning, which suggests traders are back to actively hedging against risk across the globe.
BTCUSD is trading flat/sideways - looking for some direction and, obviously, NOT RALLYING right now.
In my mind, the markets are struggling for direction, and Gold/Silver are showing that real risks are still elevated.
I also highlight my new Pure Alpha TTScanner algo and the work I'm doing to try to help more traders. The best part about what I do is that I get to create solutions/tools for traders. I love it.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
Spy Monthly Close $595-$602📈 May is on track to close bullish with projected levels of $595–$602.
This move is backed by the AlphaPulse™ Trading System:
– Momentum signals confirm multi-timeframe strength
– Anchored VWAP reclaimed from April highs
– MACD bull cross + RSI holding strong (60–70 zone)
– Price above SMA50/200 with elevated volume
– Fibonacci 1.618 aligns with $602 target
When anchored VWAP, MACD, RSI, volume, fibs, and AlphaPulse all align bullishly — and price structure supports clean higher lows — the probability of a May close between $595 and $602 becomes statistically favorable.
📈 Thesis Probability and Conditional Breakdown
🔷 Bullish Probability Estimate (May Close $595–$602):
📊 68% Probability of bullish continuation into $595–$602
Based on:
Multi-timeframe confluence (MACD, RSI, AVWAP)
No bearish divergences
Volume + smart money alignment (AlphaPulse Bot)
✅ Bull Case (If $580 Holds):
If price continues holding above $580, expect:
Continuation wave toward $595 (local fib target)
Acceleration into $602 (1.618 extension) if breakout holds above $596
Supported by:
AVWAP control staying bullish
MACD histogram expanding
RSI maintaining >60 zone
AlphaPulse breakout signal staying green
🎯 Target: $595–$602
📆 Timeframe: By May 30 close
🎯 Optional overshoot: $608 wick zone if volume spikes
⚠️ Bear Case Trigger (If $580 Breaks)
If $580 fails on high volume or with RSI divergence, the setup shifts:
Condition Bearish Implication
Break below $580 Invalidates current higher low base
MACD flips negative Signals momentum exhaustion
RSI < 50 Enters bearish zone
AlphaPulse Signal flips red Confirms structural breakdown
🔻 Downside Risk:
If $580 fails, probability of bearish retrace to $567 = 75%
$567 is the last demand support zone
Also aligns with prior consolidation + rising SMA50
Below this, momentum cracks completely, and macro selling may accelerate
🧠 Final Note:
“Above $580 = control remains with bulls.
Below $580 = structure breaks, and $567 becomes the likely magnet.”
AS always SafeTrades And JoeWtrades
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 29, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 29, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🚫 U.S. Trade Court Blocks Tariffs
A federal trade court struck down key sections of President Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs, sending U.S. stock futures sharply higher as investors anticipate reduced input costs for industrials and manufacturers
🌐 Markets Drift on Lack of Fresh Catalysts
Global equity markets showed muted moves today—stocks dipped and bond yields rose—as traders awaited new drivers of direction, with Nvidia’s ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) mixed earnings doing little to spark a decisive trend
📈 Bond Yields Climb, Pressuring Equities
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield pushed above 4.6%, its highest in a month, on concerns over federal borrowing and fading rate-cut expectations, dragging the S&P 500 down more than 1% by midday
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Thursday, May 29:
8:30 AM ET: Advance Q1 GDP
Provides the first estimate of U.S. economic growth in Q1, a critical gauge of recession risk and Fed policy direction.
8:30 AM ET: Personal Income & Spending (April)
Tracks household earnings and outlays, offering insight into consumer resilience amid rising living costs.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
SPY (S&P 500 ETF) – 1H Smart Money Concepts Short SetupPublished by WaverVanir International LLC | 28 May 2025
🧠 Smart Money Concepts | Volume Profile | Fibonacci Retracements | ORB (0930-0945)
🔻 Trade Context:
We positioned short around the 0.5–0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone near $588.50, aligning with a premium pricing zone and weak high rejection. Price structure has confirmed a Break of Structure (BOS) with a decisive move lower after liquidity sweep above previous highs.
🔍 Key Technicals:
📌 Positioned: $588.50–$589.00 zone
🔺 Weak High: $593.00+
📉 Short Target Zone:
TP1: $575.59 (0.886 retracement support)
TP2: $568.00–$563.22 (1.382 extension zone)
TP3: $558.61 (Volume cluster low and liquidity magnet)
⚖️ Equilibrium & Volume Confirmation:
Notice how equilibrium aligns with the lower range compression. Volume divergence adds confluence for downside continuation.
🎯 Outlook:
We're anticipating a move toward the 1.382–1.786 extension zones, with $563.22 as the primary short target. This aligns with internal liquidity pockets and previous consolidation zones.
📊 Strategy:
High-conviction SMC short with FVG alignment, premium rejection, and structural confirmation. Risk is tightly managed above the weak high. DSS confirms bearish momentum build-up.
💼 Trade Ideas & DSS-backed Analysis by
WaverVanir International LLC
#SPY #TradingView #SMC #AlgoTrading #Fibonacci #ORB #SmartMoney #ShortSetup #WaverVanir #VolumeProfile #MarketStructure
$SPY LOOKING GOOD!I SEE PLENTY OF UPSIDE!
. Overbought Conditions
RSI Levels: An RSI reading of 75 suggests that SPY may be overbought, potentially leading to a short-term pullback or consolidation.
Market Breadth Concerns
Participation Rates: Only about 41% of stocks are trading above their 200-day moving averages, indicating that the rally may be driven by a limited number of large-cap stocks.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update For 5-28 : Calm Before The StormThis update is designed to help you understand why the SPY/QQQ/BCTUSD, as well as GOLD/SILVER and others, should stay rather FLAT today.
Unless there is some major news event (or other event) before the NVDA earnings data, I suspect the markets will stay very muted/flat through the close of trading today.
I hope you are all enjoying my 'Plan Your Trade' videos. Now that I've gotten through most of the family doctor/medical issues, it's back to work for me.
I'm working on a BTCUSD Cycle Pattern system as well as more advanced algos/trade triggers for subscribers.
Let me know how I'm doing. Is there something you want to see in these videos? Let me know.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-28 : Inside Breakaway PatternToday's Inside-Breakaway pattern suggests the markets may attempt to rally above yesterday's close on strong news or earnings. Today is the NVDA earnings day (after the close). I suspect trading will be somewhat flat ahead of these highly anticipated earnings.
Traders would be smart to position into a HEDGE ahead of the NVDA earnings this afternoon.
Obviously, if the earnings are good, the markets will react to the upside. If they are poor/weak, the markets could easily move aggressively downward.
All I know is the tariff moves over the past few weeks pushed gamers and others into buying high-end graphics cards back in April/May because everyone thought prices would skyrocket 30-50% or more. So, maybe NVDA will report strong revenue while costs increase.
It should be an interesting day after the close. Until then, I believe the markets will stay somewhat FLAT - anticipating NVDA data/comments.
Gold and Silver are still working through the FLAG APEX. Silver is already beyond the FLAG APEX and could make a big move higher at any moment. Gold still has one small downward price move to complete before the FLAGGING pattern is complete.
Overall, I believe Gold and Silver are forming a solid base near $3300/$33 for a strong rally in the future.
BTCUSD is stalling. In fact, the SPY/QQQ/BTCUSD are all stalling near the 0.75% Fib level (as shown on my charts). We may be setting up for that big breakdown I've been warning about. But, until we actually SEE price break out of the upward EPP Flagging channel - don't get overly confident of a BIG BREAKDOWN move.
My advice would be to HEDGE any aggressive trades you are trying to take right now. If you believe the markets are going to rally substantially, try to hedge that trade with some risk protection (longer-dated PUTS).
Today could be a catalyst day. We may get a breakout/breakdown move after NVDA's earnings/data.
Buckle up.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
DAILY-SPYSpy seems to have lost its Euphoria, no go back down madame! If this happens: MOASS for GME
NFA
HAVE FUN
SPY (S&P500 ETF) - Price Bounced Above Gap Support Zone - DailySPY (S&P500 ETF) price has bounced up from the $576 price support gap level.
EMA Golden Cross is still active, the yellow 50EMA crossed above the red 200EMA which could signal a longer term bullish rally.
SPY price has been in an uptrend since May 2025.
Resistance Levels: $594, $596, $600, $607, $613.
Support Levels: $581, $575, $572, $567, $564.
Tariff and trade deal news, corporate earnings, presidential and government law changes, inflation data, economic data, and consumer sentiment can all affect Stock and ETF prices.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 28, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 28, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🏭 Trump’s Tax Bill Threatens Clean-Energy Boom President Trump’s proposed budget aims to accelerate the expiry of key clean-energy tax credits, jeopardizing over $321 billion in investments and forcing manufacturers to pause expansion—risking a slowdown in solar and wind growth.
🛢️ Oil Flat as OPEC+ Output Hike Looms Brent and WTI held steady amid expectations that OPEC+ will announce a 411K bpd production increase for July at today’s ministerial meeting—balancing tighter U.S. supply and easing trade-tension pressures.
💻 Nvidia Earnings Eye Export-Curbs Impact Ahead of Q1 results, analysts warn U.S. chip-export restrictions to China could shave $5.5 billion from Nvidia’s ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) sales this quarter, testing AI-led growth optimism.
📈 Wall Street Climbs on Tariff Reprieve U.S. futures jumped after Trump delayed planned EU tariffs until July 9, lifting risk appetite across megacaps—Nvidia led gains with a 2.7% pre-market rise.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Wednesday, May 28:
9:00 AM ET: Case-Shiller Home Price Index Measures month-over-month changes in home values across 20 major U.S. cities—a key gauge of housing-market trends.
10:00 AM ET: Consumer Confidence Index Tracks consumer sentiment on current business and labor-market conditions and expectations for the next six months.
2:00 PM ET: FOMC Minutes (May 6–7 Meeting) Detailed readout of policymakers’ economic outlook and voting rationale—critically watched for hints on future rate policy.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
SPY UpdatePrice made a top just shy of the 1.382 extension fib and then reversed. Now, it has risen back up right into the area one would expect for a mini b wave. MACD is also curling down hinting at a possible move lower coming. If that is the case, and we begin moving lower again breaching $573.25, then the likely hood of a top for B raises exponentially. Should that be the case, then price will be headed to the $468-$389 area next. This means that the market as a whole will be moving significantly lower in the coming weeks.
Dropping to $468, the highest normal termination point, would constitute a 20%+ drop from current levels. To fall to the lowest standard area is almost a 35% drop. This is suggesting that the market as a whole is on the cusp of losing up to a third of its value. What could cause such a thing? Idk and idc. The only thing that matters to me, is what will happen. Currently, the structure is telling us that a major haircut is in store for the markets.
Some of you will scoff at such a remark. I don't blame you either. The world's largest market losing a third of its value is hard to fathom. Thats over 15 trillion dollars of capital just gone. If you look back just a couple weeks ago though, the S&P lost 21.43% or 10.179 trillion dollars in just over a month. Still think it's impossible? And that was just on the thought of tariffs. They hadn't even been implemented yet, lol.
I say all of this to make you aware of what the charts are telling us. Believe me or not, it doesn't really matter. When it does happen though, just remember, you were warned...
SPY: Positioning for this. Today I bought some futures options contract, to self analyze things. From trading AGI, once developed it should do a lot of things. I need to be a partner somewhere at this point, might as well start a trading view pack hahaha. More outreach and audiences.
Flying into the sun or about to get burnt?Market is about to reach all-time highs again. Many trade deals must have been made. Interest rates must have been cut. Wars must have been resolved. Personal debt must have come under control. Corporate debt must have been resolved.
Wait, nothing has changed? Things are worse? Well why is the index about to hit new all-time highs? My take is a major fake out. We are about to set a double top as we complete a rising wedge pattern.
The rising wedge.
What began at the market bottom on 7 April, has remained bound in a channel. If the first pump up was an A followed by the declaration of the channel bottom as B, wave C has last over a month upward. We have wave 3 signals identifying wave 3 of C ending with the high on 19 May. Last week's dip was wave 4 and now we fly high this week. It is unclear if we actually make a new all-time high or fall just short. The below chart has 138.197% extension around 610.63. Inside wave C, my wave 1 was nine days long, and wave 3 was only 8. This points to wave 5 lasting less than 8 days. A common wave 1-3-5 duration in relation to wave 3 is around 114% for 1 and 50% for wave 5.
The height of the rising wedge covers 66.82 points. This same distance should provide the first target bottom once we exit the channel, possibly as early as next week. Once the bottom falls, we then examine the double top pattern. Although the neckline stretches far backwards, the bottom is established at the 7 April low. The distance from the neckline to the all-time high in February provides the next possible minimum target bottom by taking this 131.43 drop and subtracting it from the neckline of 481.80. This puts the initial low around 350.37 sometime later this year or early next.
There is a perfect storm of calamity brewing with zero resolutions in place or even planned. Do we finally drop or keep rising into the sun?
