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United States Natural Gas Fund LP

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UNG trade ideas

UNG - 15mUNG is very close to signaling a breakdown. I'm already short, but one could short a break of the lower trendline, this morning's low, or the 6.29 signal level. Stops above this morning's high, wave 2, or where ever you're comfortable. Short-term target is the 5.70/.90 region. Longer timeframe targets are in the blue box, and more refined numbers will be posted IF price breaks down. Be advised, this presumed move down is nearing the end of a long-term correction. Price could respond strongly upward once the pattern completes. Longer-term traders would benefit from waiting for long entry at lower prices.
AMEX:UNGShort
by nick.holland78
1
UNG - 4hI've been posting the red Ending Diagonal count on UNG. This count is falling out of favor with me, mostly due to the size of minute wave i relative to wave iii. With the help of a pro Arkady Yakhnis at www.elliottwavetrader.net I've added the green count. Signal level at 6.29 retains significance, though an impulse to new lows would be expected under the green count versus a corrective (a)-(b)-(c) of v under the red count. Follow the pros and learn Fib Pinball on Avi Gilburt's site.
AMEX:UNGShort
by nick.holland78
UNG - 30mHadn't looked at this chart recently, but seems price hit my a=c (100%) target on the nose yesterday morning. Follow through on the pattern suggests new lows are possible in coming weeks/months. A new low could represent a major bottom as it would complete the count on a long-term correction. Could be a significant buying opportunity for long swing traders IF it develops. I've drawn it as an ending diagonal pattern - thus the (a)-(b)-(c) to complete wave v - but there's other interpretations, too.
AMEX:UNG
by nick.holland78
UNG - 15mNear-term outlook noted on chart. See previous ideas for more info. Price opened right at the bottom of support today, and I'm giving swing longs a bit of room. Continued drop would be reason to stop out imo. This drop doesn't much resemble a b-wave of (iv) with RH trading. The AH NG chart has more movement, but still not convinced. The purple I-ii, 1-2 count is barely hanging on. Need a strong bounce with follow-thru over alt (iv) to convince me it has real potential.
AMEX:UNGLong
by nick.holland78
UNG - 1hPrice remains between signal levels which remain unchanged. Over 6.65 indicates possibility of something bullish - possibly the start of a motive wave off the lows. Below 6.16 then bearish potential for new lows. While I remain short, a portion of my position stopped out earlier today. Decline off recent highs has not developed in a clearly impulsive fashion, and bullish potential must be acknowledged, especially if 6.65 signal level gives way. Note positive divergence on MACD. Bullish potential shown in pink. Chart in log scale.
AMEX:UNGShort
by nick.holland78
UNG - DailyUpdating the bigger picture. Presumed wave (iv) came right to the 38.2 retrace target (shown on smaller timeframes) and reversed. This rhymes with the pervious minute circle wave iv of a larger degree. However, note that this decline is nearing its long-term completion on positive divergence. Such divergence can persist thru wave (v) of v on new price lows. Beginning of this decline in Aug/Sep '15 was difficult to count, and wave (ii) was a complex w-x-y-x-z. Larger-degree fibs are difficult to measure, and UNG's decay further complicates the measurements. Bottom line: DO NOT risk too much here, and DO NOT overstay your welcome if you're still in this short. I anticipate the reversal could be sharp, once decline completes.
AMEX:UNGShort
by nick.holland78