Crypto Market - 1 month (30 days) left until #ALTSZN endsSometimes, the market forces you to take a pause. The last few weeks have been exactly that for me. Health issues knocked me off my game, and my first thought, of course, was that it was due to the nerves and immense responsibility of this public #AltsznLive experiment. But after some self-reflection, I realized - it's not the trading stress. I've been in this game for 11 years and learned how to handle the pressure long ago.
This experience only reminded me of the most important rule in our profession: the ability to take a step back. To step away from the charts, to rethink your strategy, to do something completely different. Over the years, I've taken such breaks many times, and each time I returned stronger, with a clearer vision. And this latest pause has led me to some profound thoughts that I simply must share with you.
Everyone is searching for a Holy Grail in indicators, signals, and other people's opinions. But the only true grail is found within yourself. Success in trading is a direct consequence of deep and brutally honest self-analysis.
In February of this year, I decided to tackle a big task: completely updating my educational Academy. This has always been a point of growth for me - structuring knowledge, learning new things. I created a detailed course plan, wrote down all the current relevant topics, and when I got to the section on "AI Agents," I stopped. And I disappeared. I went down that rabbit hole for four months, completely absorbed.
I realized that the old format of education no longer works. It doesn't even inspire me anymore. So, I postponed the Academy update indefinitely. Instead, I focused on AI Agents. I saw in them not just a topic for a lesson, but the future - an army of personal assistants that can radically improve efficiency. I started creating them for myself, for my tasks, for my analysis.
And I don't plan on stopping. In the coming bear market, I will dedicate even more time to this. Perhaps, a completely new, previously unimaginable format for the Academy will be born from this. I won't be publishing detailed content about the development process, but I will certainly share the most interesting developments with my community.
Why I Still Believe in September
This final push, which I've called "Altszn Live," fits perfectly into the market vision I formed long before it began. My core thesis remains unchanged: I believe the current growth cycle will end in September 2025. As in, next month.
Right now, amidst the rally, I'm getting a flood of messages telling me I'm wrong, that the real altseason will be pushed to Q4, that everything is just getting started. And you know what? Maybe they're right. I fully admit that I could be wrong. I'm not trying to win a prediction contest. I won't get a medal for being right, and I won't be devastated if I'm mistaken - in 11 years, I've been wrong thousands of times, and there's nothing terrible about it.
But I trust my system and my analysis more than the market noise. I will exit my positions in September and I will not re-enter the market until the end of the year, even if it goes to the moon. This site is called TradingView. A place where people share their vision. And this is my vision. The market is a living, pulsating organism. And I am here to study it, not to prove that I am right.
A Deep Dive into Aptos ( AMEX:APT )
So why am I betting on it again, on the supposed "loser"? Let's break it down.
- The Counter-Argument and My Rebuttal: Yes, in the L1 narrative war, Aptos lost to SUI. Yes, it has complex tokenomics with constant unlocks that put pressure on the price. I see all of this. I am not betting on the obvious favorite. I am betting on market inefficiency.
– The Entry Point: In trading, what matters is not just being right, but the price at which you enter. And right now, the entry point for Aptos looks far more attractive and safer to me than many other "overheated" projects that are already on everyone's lips.
– The Behavioral Pattern: Aptos is slow. It's always late to the party. It doesn't lead the charge. BUT. When it starts to move, its growth becomes abnormally strong. Every single correction, no matter how small, is bought up instantly and aggressively. It just goes up, and up, and up. That's how it was last time. I am betting that the psychology of major players and the behavior of this asset have not changed.
– The RWA Conviction: I will be blunt. I am deeply disappointed in 99% of altcoins. The more I research, the more I understand that most of these tokens are useless and provide no real value. My long-term conviction lies in the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA). And Aptos is one of the TOP 3 blockchains leading this narrative.
Technically
- Unverified SFP
- APTBTC potential reversal
- APTETH I don't see any signs of a reversal
- APTUSD in my area of interest
- after the 6.25 break a rally should start
Fundamental:
Aptos is a project with extremely high potential but with corresponding risks. It can be described as a "blue-chip venture bet." The technology, team, and investors are top-tier (10/10). However, the weak and initially non-transparent tokenomics (4/10) is a major deterrent.
The project is fairly valued by the market as a high-risk, high-reward asset. It is not a "hidden gem" due to its fame, nor is it a "scam," given its strong fundamentals. It is recommended for consideration as part of a diversified portfolio for investors with a high risk tolerance who are betting on the team and the long-term adoption of the Move technology.
I plan to hold all my spot and futures positions until September 13th.
Let's see together how it plays out.
What's Next?
Many of the coins I've mentioned before - LINK, ETH, and others-have already taken off. I am intentionally not publishing a flood of ideas this season. As I said, I'm disappointed with most of the market.
After September, when I close this challenge, I will report back on the results - both the wins and the losses. And I will be sure to share my plans for what I'll be doing with my stablecoins next.
I'm not the kind of author who publishes ten posts a day. I only share my thoughts when I truly have something to say. If you're interested in my journey, my approach, and my ideas - just leave a like on this post. Follow me if you want, don't if you don't. I am here to share my analysis; that's just how it's been since the beginning of my journey on TradingView.
Much love to you all.
With love, your EXCAVO.
