$NRW gap to Fill, bullish, Head and Shoulder breaks neckline🔍 Current Technical Setup
Price: $2.92 AUD
Trend: Recent bullish reversal from lows near $2.00
Volume: Increasing volume on the uptrend — a bullish sign of accumulation.
Moving Averages:
Short-Term EMA (10): $2.82 — price is above = bullish.
EMA (50): $2.61 — price is also above = uptrend intact.
SMA (200): $3.25 — price below = long-term resistance remains.
🧠 Key Chart Patterns & Levels
Structure: Cup & Handle / Inverted Head and Shoulders-like bottom formation from the April–June base.
Breakout Zone: Just broke through minor resistance around $2.90 with strong volume.
Gap Fill Zone: Between $3.10–$3.30 (highlighted grey box). This is a key target area where price previously sold off — likely to act as resistance.
Major Resistance: The 200-day SMA at $3.25 aligns with the upper edge of the gap zone = high confluence resistance.
📈 Bullish Scenario (High Probability ~60–70%)
Price continues to rally on strong volume to test the gap resistance zone.
Target: $3.10 to $3.30 in the short term (5–15% upside).
A daily close above $3.30 would confirm a structural breakout toward previous highs near $3.80–$4.00 (medium-term target).
📉 Bearish Scenario (~30–40% Probability)
Price rejects off $2.90–$3.00 and retests support at the 50 EMA (~$2.60).
If it loses the $2.50 level again, the structure weakens and re-tests lows near $2.10–$2.20 become possible.
🎯 Trading Strategy & Risk
Entry zone (momentum): $2.85–$2.95 (already underway).
Short-term Target: $3.10–$3.30
Medium-term Target: $3.80
Stop loss: Below $2.70 (just under the 50 EMA and recent swing low).
Risk:Reward: About 1:2 or better toward the gap fill.
🧠 Summary
NRW (NWH) is showing a strong bullish reversal from a major base with increasing volume. The short-term structure supports a gap fill to $3.10–$3.30, with a medium-term potential back to $3.80 if it breaks the 200 SMA cleanly. However, resistance is expected near that region and caution is warranted around $3.25.
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