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AUDJPY trade ideas

AUDJPY 4H Short Setup📕 Smart Money Trade Breakdown 🔻 AUDJPY 4H Short Setup This is a short entry on AUDJPY, taken from a premium price zone within an Order Block (O-B) and Supply & Demand (S&D) area, showing strong bearish rejection after internal market structure shift. 📉 Entry: 94.096 🎯 Take Profit: 90.136 🛡️ Stop Loss: 95.399 ⚖️ Risk-Reward Ratio: ~1:3 🔍 Key Confluences: Entry within a well-defined Order Block and S&D zone Price reacted to upper supply with a visible wick rejection Break of internal structure (M15-H1) shows bearish intent Bearish engulfing on confirmation candle Trendline break suggests end of bullish wave This setup aims to catch the institutional distribution phase before price retraces to discount demand around the 90.100 zone or lower. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes. Apply proper risk management and strategy validation before live execution.
Short
by sksglobaltraders24on
AUDJPY SELL SIGNAL – GLOBAL HORNS🦘 AUDJPY SELL SIGNAL – GLOBAL HORNS 🕰️ Timeframe: 4H 📉 Direction: SELL 📍 Entry: 94.40 (active) 🎯 Target: 93.94 ⏳ Duration: usually within a few days max 📊 Context: Price surged into a key reaction zone and is now stalling. I'm looking for a short-term pullback to the 93.94 area, which aligns with recent structural retests (see arrows). Trade is already active. 📌 No stop loss — this is managed by time and price behavior. If target isn't hit by the window, I’m out. 🧠 As always, this is not financial advice. Just showing what I’m doing. #GlobalHorns #AUDJPY #Forex
Short
by GlobalHorns
AUDJPYAUDJPY: 10-Year Bond Yields, Interest Rates, Bank Lending Rates, and Carry Trade Advantage (June 2025) 1. 10-Year Government Bond Yields Australia (AUD): The 10-year Australian government bond yield is currently around 4.48%–4.53%. Japan (JPY): The 10-year Japanese government bond yield is about 1.48% as of June 16, 2025. 2. Central Bank Interest Rate Decisions Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA): The RBA cut its cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85% in May 2025, citing progress in reducing inflation and global uncertainties. Bank of Japan (BOJ): The BOJ held its key short-term policy interest rate steady at 0.5% at its June 2025 meeting, maintaining the highest level since 2008. 3. Bank Lending Rates Australia: The average overdraft bank lending rate is 10.51% as of April 2025. Japan: The long-term prime bank lending rate is 2.05% (April 2025), while the average commercial bank lending rate is reported at 1.625% as of February 2025. 4. Interest Rate Differential Policy Rate Differential:3.85%3.85% (RBA) − 0.5%0.5% (BOJ) = 3.35%. 10-Year Bond Yield Differential:4.48%4.48% (Australia) − 1.48%1.48% (Japan) = 3.00%. 5. Carry Trade Advantage Mechanism: Investors borrow in the low-yielding Japanese yen (JPY) and invest in higher-yielding Australian dollar (AUD) assets, profiting from the interest rate differential. Current Advantage: The wide gap in both policy rates and bond yields makes AUDJPY one of the most attractive carry trade pairs in 2025. The 3.35%–3.00% differential offers steady potential returns, especially in a stable or risk-on market environment. Risks: If global risk sentiment deteriorates, the yen can strengthen rapidly as a safe haven, unwinding carry trades. Sudden shifts in RBA or BOJ policy could narrow the differential and reduce the carry trade's appeal. 6. Summary Table Factor Australia (AUD) Japan (JPY) Differential / Impact 10Y Bond Yield 4.48–4.53% 1.48% 3.00% (AUD advantage) Policy Rate 3.85% 0.5% 3.35% (AUD advantage) Bank Lending Rate 10.51% 1.625–2.05% AUD much higher Carry Trade Outlook High yield, attractive Low yield, funding Strong incentive for AUDJPY long Conclusion The AUDJPY pair is strongly supported by a wide interest rate and bond yield differential, making it a favored target for carry trade strategies in 2025. The RBA’s relatively high rates and the BOJ’s ultra-low rates, combined with stable economic conditions, provide a consistent yield advantage for investors holding long AUDJPY positions. However, traders should monitor global risk sentiment and central bank policy shifts, as these can quickly change the carry trade landscape
Long
by Shavyfxhub
AUDJPY SHORT FORECAST Q2 W24 D12 Y25AUDJPY SHORT FORECAST Q2 W24 D12 Y25 Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure. Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 👀 💡Here are some trade confluences📝 ✅Weekly Order block rejection ✅15' Order block ✅1H 50EMA ✅Daily 50 EMA 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Short
by JCFRGNT
AUDJPY Market Forecast – Level 3 Completion & Potential ResetThis chart illustrates a classic Market Maker 3-Level Rise Pattern: Level 1: Initiated after a consolidation phase, marked by a clear shift in structure. Level 2: Continued bullish expansion with stronger impulsive candles. Level 3: Price reaches an overextended zone with signs of slowing momentum, indicating a potential distribution or retracement phase. Key Forecast: A retracement is expected toward the 93.297 zone, which aligns with: Possible reaccumulating point before continuation This move may serve as a manipulation trap to grab liquidity below recent lows before pushing higher. If price reacts strongly at 93.297 with bullish structure, a long setup targeting new highs (~94.40+) is favored.
Long
by Bunnex_Investment_Group
2
AUDJPY SHORT FORECAST Q2 W23 D10 Y25AUDJPY SHORT FORECAST Q2 W23 D10 Y25 Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure. Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 👀 💡Here are some trade confluences📝 ✅Weekly Order block rejection ✅15' Order block to be confirmed ✅4H 50EMA ✅Daily 50 EMA 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Short
by JCFRGNT
1
AUDJPY pull back to FVG then LongAUDJPY Long Setup (Preliminary Plan) Target Levels: First Target: 94.300 Second Target: 94.800 Strategy: Looking for bullish price action (PA) confirmation around the highlighted Fair Value Gap (FVG). Expecting a possible breach of minor resistance on open, which may lead to a push toward the first target at 94.300. A pullback may follow after the first target is hit. Notes: This setup is preliminary and subject to adjustment. Live price action will be monitored before executing the trade.
Long
by SKA_CAPITAL
AUDJPYAUD/JPY 10-Year Bond Yield, Interest Rate Differential, Uncovered Interest Rate Parity, and Carry Trade Advantage (June 2025) Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) explains potential currency movements between the Australian dollar (AUD) and Japanese yen (JPY) by linking the difference in their interest rates to expected changes in their exchange rate. How UIP Works for AUD/JPY UIP theory states that the difference in nominal interest rates between two countries equals the expected percentage change in the exchange rate between their currencies over the same period. If Australia’s interest rates are higher than Japan’s, UIP predicts that the AUD will depreciate against the JPY by approximately the interest rate differential to offset the higher returns investors earn from Australian assets. Conversely, if Japan’s rates were higher, the JPY would be expected to depreciate against the AUD by the same logic. Intuition Behind UIP Investors seeking higher yields may borrow in the low-interest-rate currency (JPY) and invest in the high-interest-rate currency (AUD). However, the expected depreciation of the AUD against the JPY (equal to the interest rate gap) eliminates the possibility of riskless arbitrage profits, as exchange rate losses offset interest gains. Thus, the currency with the higher interest rate tends to depreciate, balancing returns across countries. Real-World Considerations UIP often does not hold perfectly in practice due to market imperfections, risk premiums, monetary policy differences, and investor behavior. For example, the Japanese yen is a popular funding currency in carry trades because of its low rates, and empirical studies show UIP deviations in the AUD/JPY market. These deviations allow investors to earn excess returns by exploiting interest rate differentials, but they carry exchange rate risk. 1. Current 10-Year Bond Yields Australia 10-Year Bond Yield: Around 4.3% to 4.5% as of early June 2025, with recent quotes near 4.34% to 4.48%. The Reserve Bank of Australia cut the cash rate to 3.85%, but bond yields remain elevated due to inflation expectations and global factors. Japan 10-Year Bond Yield: Japan’s 10-year government bond yield remains very low, typically near 0.3% to 0.5%, reflecting the Bank of Japan’s ultra-loose monetary policy and yield curve control targeting around 0% for 10-year bonds. This yield has been stable due to persistent low inflation and accommodative policy. 2. Interest Rate Differential The 10-year bond yield differential (Australia minus Japan) is approximately: 4.4%−0.4%=4.0% This means Australian 10-year bonds yield roughly 4 percentage points more than Japanese 10-year bonds. 3. Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) UIP theory suggests the expected change in the exchange rate equals the interest rate differential:E =iAUD−iJPY≈4.0%E =i AUD −i JPY ≈4.0% This implies the AUD should depreciate by about 4% annually against the JPY to offset the higher yield on Australian bonds. In practice, however, UIP often fails in the short to medium term due to risk premiums, capital flows, and market sentiment. 4. Carry Trade Advantage The large positive yield differential creates a strong carry trade incentive: investors borrow in low-yielding JPY and invest in higher-yielding AUD assets to capture the interest rate spread. Benefits: Potentially attractive returns from the ~4% yield gap AUD’s higher yields and commodity exposure can amplify gains in risk-on environments Risks: Currency risk if AUD weakens sharply versus JPY Global risk-off events can trigger rapid unwinds of carry trades, causing AUD depreciation Summary Table Metric Australia (AUD) Japan (JPY) Differential (AUD - JPY) 10-Year Government Bond Yield ~4.3% - 4.5% ~0.3% - 0.5% ~4.0% Policy Rate 3.85% (RBA) -0.1% to 0% (BoJ) ~3.85% UIP Expected AUD Depreciation — — ~4.0% per annum Carry Trade Advantage High yield, attractive Low yield, funding currency Strong carry trade incentive Conclusion The AUD/JPY pair is strongly influenced by the large interest rate differential, with Australian 10-year bonds offering about 4% higher yields than Japanese bonds. This differential encourages carry trades where investors borrow in low-yielding JPY to invest in higher-yielding AUD assets. According to uncovered interest rate parity, this yield gap should be offset by an expected AUD depreciation against JPY, but in reality, carry trades and risk sentiment often drive deviations from UIP. #AUDJPY
by Shavyfxhub
AUDJPY Begins Elliot Correction After Wave 5 Impulse EndsOANDA:AUDJPY seems to have started a Elliot Correction Wave after the Impulsive Elliot Wave came to a finish once Wave 5 ended this morning @ 93.774. Now after an Impulsive Wave ends, its theory that a Correction comes next and with Price having Retraced to the Golden Ratio creating a Lower High, this is the beginning signs of that theory in the works! The Sequence will be confirmed once Price Breaks below Point A @ 93.248 where then we should suspect Price to find itself back down into the 92 range where the Correction Wave should come to an end. RSI is trading back below 50 confirming Price has room to move lower strengthening the Bearish Bias.
Short
by Novi_Fibonacci