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SIBANYE STILLWATER LIMITED

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SBSW/N trade ideas

“Accumulation, Breakout, Repeat: SBSW’s Time Again?” SBSW | Weekly Chart Analysis 4-Year Cycle | Smart Money Levels | Precious Metals Macro Tailwind This chart paints a clear picture — Sibanye-Stillwater (SBSW) has followed a reliable 4-year accumulation-to-expansion cycle: 🔹 2015–2016 🔹 2019–2021 🔹 Now shaping up for 2025–2026 Each rally kicked off after institutional accumulation around the $3 level, and once again, we’re seeing the same behavior. History doesn’t just rhyme — it repeats. 🧠 Smart Money Moves Every major cycle began after price based out near the $3 level. That’s exactly what we’ve just seen — accumulation, basing, and now lift-off. We’ve entered a familiar pattern — the same smart money footprints showing up again. 📊 Technical Breakdown This is the weekly chart, and we’re now testing the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level (7.39) drawn from the 2020 high to the recent low. ✅ A weekly close above this level + structure building could confirm the beginning of a long-term leg higher. 📈 Volume Flow Indicator has crossed above the midline for the first time in years, suggesting that real buying pressure is back. That’s a shift in momentum worth noting. 🎯 Key Areas of Interest: • $10.00 – Volume node + prior S/R • $12.00 – Fib midpoint + prior pivot • $14.90 – Confluence zone These are zones where I’ll be watching for continuation, reaction, or reversal. 🌎 Macro Tailwind: Precious Metals Demand Platinum and palladium are gaining renewed attention as demand increases in EVs, clean energy, and industrial sectors. SBSW — with its deep exposure to both metals — is positioned as a long-term beneficiary if this trend continues. Add to that the recent global instability and de-dollarization chatter, and you’ve got a macro backdrop favoring real assets over paper. Precious metals are catching a bid — and SBSW could ride that wave. 🧠 My Position Started buying $4.00 calls and recently rolled to $5.50s. I’m letting this one develop over time — watching for confirmation and continuation. (Not financial advice — just sharing my perspective as always.) 🕰️ Cycles matter. 📚 History teaches. 💰 Smart money accumulates before the breakout. This setup has all the hallmarks of a repeat cycle in progress. I’m locked in. — 📍 Long-term chartwork, weekly timeframe. Zoom out to see the rhythm. SBSW | Weekly Chart Analysis 4-Year Cycle | Smart Money Levels | Precious Metals Macro Tailwind This chart paints a clear picture — Sibanye-Stillwater (SBSW) has followed a reliable 4-year accumulation-to-expansion cycle: 🔹 2015–2016 🔹 2019–2021 🔹 Now shaping up for 2025–2026 Each rally kicked off after institutional accumulation around the $3 level, and once again, we’re seeing the same behavior. History doesn’t just rhyme — it repeats. 🧠 Smart Money Moves Every major cycle began after price based out near the $3 level. That’s exactly what we’ve just seen — accumulation, basing, and now lift-off. We’ve entered a familiar pattern — the same smart money footprints showing up again. 📊 Technical Breakdown This is the weekly chart, and we’re now testing the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level (7.39) drawn from the 2020 high to the recent low. ✅ A weekly close above this level + structure building could confirm the beginning of a long-term leg higher. 📈 Volume Flow Indicator has crossed above the midline for the first time in years, suggesting that real buying pressure is back. That’s a shift in momentum worth noting. 🎯 Key Areas of Interest: • $10.00 – Volume node + prior S/R • $12.00 – Fib midpoint + prior pivot • $14.90 – Confluence zone These are zones where I’ll be watching for continuation, reaction, or reversal. 🌎 Macro Tailwind: Precious Metals Demand Platinum and palladium are gaining renewed attention as demand increases in EVs, clean energy, and industrial sectors. SBSW — with its deep exposure to both metals — is positioned as a long-term beneficiary if this trend continues. Add to that the recent global instability and de-dollarization chatter, and you’ve got a macro backdrop favoring real assets over paper. Precious metals are catching a bid — and SBSW could ride that wave. 🧠 My Position Started buying $4.00 calls and recently rolled to $5.50s. I’m letting this one develop over time — watching for confirmation and continuation. (Not financial advice — just sharing my perspective as always.) 🕰️ Cycles matter. 📚 History teaches. 💰 Smart money accumulates before the breakout. This setup has all the hallmarks of a repeat cycle in progress. I’m locked in. 📍 Long-term chartwork, weekly timeframe. Zoom out to see the rhythm. 🛑 Invalidation below $5.50 — no structure, no conviction, I’m out. If SBSW breaks back below the $5.50 level with high volume and fails to reclaim it quickly, that would invalidate the current breakout structure and suggest this move was a false start. I'd reassess the cycle thesis if we revisit the $4 range with no buyer defense. Please feel free to comment and let me your opinion
NYSE:SBSWLong
by DC_Trading_Journey
1
Our opinion on the current state of SIBANYE-S(SSW)Sibanye (SSW) is a mining house that has been on a rapid acquisition trail, accumulating platinum and gold mines in South Africa and America. It is now broadening its scope to include base metals and minerals, especially so-called "green" metals. The company is run by Neal Froneman, who is well-known in the mining industry for his toughness, expertise, and experience. Froneman has said that he intends to retire in about 2024/5 but aims to double the size of the company before he does. Sibanye is also considering moving into the base minerals used in motor vehicle batteries, such as vanadium, copper, nickel, and lithium. On 1st June 2021, the company announced a share buy-back program to repurchase up to 5% of its issued shares. On 3rd July 2024, *Business Day* reported that Sibanye had retrenched 11,000 workers over 18 months. In its results for the year to 31st December 2024, the company reported revenue up 7% in the final six months, with a gold price that "...drove a 216% increase in adjusted EBITDA1 to R3.6 billion." South African PGM costs were up 6%, and "US PGM - consistent production and 27% reduction in AISC to US$1,367/2Eoz for 2024..." The CEO, Neal Froneman, stated, "Our strategic diversification and proactive actions in response to many of the forces currently driving global change have ensured that the Group is well positioned to sustain a longer period of low prices." Technically, the share has been in a downward trend since March 2022, mainly due to falling commodity prices. On 13th February 2024, the company announced that CEO Neal Froneman will be retiring on 30th September 2025 and will be replaced by Richard Stewart.
JSE:SSW
by PDSnetSA
Our opinion on the current state of SIBANYE-S(SSW)Sibanye (SSW) is a mining house that has been on a rapid acquisition trail, accumulating platinum and gold mines in South Africa and America and now broadening its scope to include base metals and minerals, especially so-called "green" metals. The company is run by Neal Froneman, who is well-known in the mining industry for his toughness, expertise, and experience. Froneman has said that he intends to retire in about 2024/5 but plans to double the size of the company before he does. Sibanye is also considering moving into the base minerals used in motor vehicle batteries, like vanadium, copper, nickel, and lithium. On 1st June 2021, the company announced a share buy-back program to repurchase up to 5% of its issued shares. On 3rd July 2024, Business Day reported that Sibanye had retrenched 11,000 workers over 18 months. In its results for the six months to 30th June 2024, the company reported headline earnings of R137m compared with R5,891m in the previous period. Lower commodity prices caused revenue to decline by 9%. The company said, "The Group maintained a sound financial position with undemanding balance sheet leverage of 1.43x net debt: adjusted EBITDA at 30 June 2024, well below our covenant levels." In an update for the 3 months to 30th September 2024, the company reported EBITDA up 9% and EBITDA from South African gold operations up 292%. The gold price in rands was up 24%. In a trading statement for the year to 31st December 2024, the company estimated that HEPS would be between 63c and 67c compared with 63c in the previous year. The company took an R8,8bn impairment loss on its PGM operations in the US, which is not reflected in HEPS. Technically, the share has been in a downward trend since March 2022, mainly because of falling commodity prices. On 13th February 2024, the company announced that CEO Neal Froneman would be retiring on 30th September 2025 and will be replaced by Richard Stewart.
JSE:SSW
by PDSnetSA
Levrage During this Metals Bull - finding the next Newmount?Relatively safe ways to gain exposure to leveraged plays in the form of mining companies. Many established miners are way too unbelievably low with current metals prices. Here we look at the technical perspective on why I am bullish on these cyclical mining stocks and why they could yield outstanding returns - which is to say now may be the time to scale in before they catch up to precious metals prices. FSM ASM SBSW
NYSE:SBSWLong
by Commodity_TA_Plus
1
How this stock might fly if PGM and Car sales return This company deals with PGM (Platinum Group Metals). I originally started my research by looking for the top emerging markets of 2025. As a result, one of the answers pointed to the mines in South Africa, where precious metals are poised for growth. From there, I proceeded with another prompt: **"Give me the top 5 mining companies in South Africa."** From that result, a list emerged. For example: **Sibanye Stillwater Limited (Ticker: SBSW)** - Known for its platinum group metals and gold mining operations, it has significant global presence and trades on the NYSE. --- Next, I looked at the chart and observed that the price had declined. To better understand what led to this decrease in price, I loaded another question in chat. The response provided the following insights: **Sibanye Stillwater (SBSW) has experienced a decline in its stock price since 2021 due to several key factors:** 1. **Declining Metal Prices:** The company is heavily reliant on platinum group metals (PGMs) and gold. Falling prices for these commodities, especially palladium and rhodium, have significantly impacted its revenue and profitability. 2. **Operational Challenges:** Since 2022, Sibanye has faced disruptions, including strikes and operational difficulties in both its South African and U.S. operations. High costs in its U.S. operations also eroded margins. 3. **Restructuring and Job Cuts:** Sibanye has undertaken restructuring efforts, leading to the closure of unprofitable mines and significant job cuts. For example, shafts at the Marikana operation were closed, and layoffs occurred in its gold mining segment, highlighting challenges in maintaining profitability. 4. **Geopolitical and Local Risks:** The South African mining sector faces risks such as labor unrest and regulatory uncertainty, both of which have negatively impacted investor confidence in Sibanye. 5. **Cybersecurity Issues:** In 2024, the company experienced a cyberattack that disrupted its IT systems, raising concerns about its operational resilience. ---------------------------------- Here’s a revised and grammatically improved version of your text: --- With this information, I decided to visit the company website to learn more about where the mines are located in South Africa. (They have others, but I wanted to focus on the dominant $$$ maker.) Through this research, I discovered that the main mine is located in Rustenburg, South Africa. Here’s a Google Maps link to the mine: (maps.app.goo.gl) *If you look closely, they even have a chicken restaurant in the middle of the job site. Lol.* --- To further my research, I considered how mines are often subject to layoffs and worker strikes. So, I started digging into YouTube videos. I found several videos posted in the past year detailing worker layoffs, strikes, and the demands workers have made to the company. (For example, 40,000 jobs were lost due to the decline in PGM prices.) Here’s a video I found: (www.youtube.com) One rumor mentioned in an interview with a worker was that they were promised CEO positions. *Geez, that’s tough—if it’s true.* This gives a good look at how people feel about the company. ---
NYSE:SBSWLong
by justwannalivetv
Our opinion on the current state of SIBANYE-S(SSW)Sibanye (SSW) has established itself as a prominent mining house through an aggressive acquisition strategy, expanding its portfolio to include platinum and gold assets in both South Africa and the United States. Under the leadership of Neal Froneman, who is well-regarded in the industry, the company has broadened its scope to include “green” metals and base minerals critical for electric vehicle batteries, such as vanadium, copper, nickel, and lithium. Froneman has expressed his ambition to double the size of Sibanye before his expected retirement around 2024-2025. The company also launched a share buy-back program in June 2021, aiming to repurchase up to 5% of its issued shares. However, despite its growth and diversification, Sibanye has faced challenges, including retrenching 11,000 workers over an 18-month period. In its financial results for the six months ending June 30, 2024, Sibanye reported a significant decline in headline earnings to R137 million, down from R5,891 million in the previous period, largely due to lower commodity prices. This drop led to a 9% decrease in revenue. Nevertheless, Sibanye maintained a solid financial standing with a leverage ratio of 1.43x net debt to adjusted EBITDA, comfortably below its covenant levels. In a quarterly update for the period ending September 30, 2024, the company reported a 9% increase in EBITDA, with South African gold operations performing particularly well, showing a 292% increase in EBITDA. The favorable 24% increase in the rand gold price supported these gains. Technically, the share had been in a downward trend since March 2022 due to declining commodity prices. However, on September 23, 2024, it broke through this downward trendline at a price of 1842c, indicating a potential shift in momentum. The share has since risen to 2236c, reflecting renewed investor interest and optimism.
JSE:SSW
by PDSnetSA
SSW - Price action vs commodity price trendsCommodity prices increased on upwards trend during the year, compared to SSW which declined due to reporting results of the last Q2. Even though commodity prices are up, the USD ZAR also plays a role here and the Rand was strong the last quarter which would impact the groups profitability in this Q. The rand is easing against the USD with the interest rate cuts going on and overall global uncertainty of the middle east. If you can cancel out the global noise then this stock is something to keep an eye on. (This is my stockpick notes - not financial advise)
JSE:SSWLong
by John2506
Sibanye-Stillwater (SBSW) — Huge Move Ahead? (Platinum Miner)Sibanye-Stillwater is one of the world’s largest producers of platinum, palladium, and rhodium. Read more on their website . If you are bullish on platinum, this is a fantastic opportunity. On the weekly chart we can see accumulation has been happening on high volume since it hit support in November 2023. V-shaped recovery on high volume on the daily (for confirmation wait for current week to close above $4): Also last week had the highest volume since 2017. When comparing it with the platinum chart we can see it made very volatile moves in 2016 and 2021 and reached the top at around $20 when platinum did small rallies to $1150-1250 levels. Can you imagine what will happen if platinum makes a new all time high? For additional confirmation wait for trend line breakout: Conservative target is $20 but it can be much more if platinum makes new highs.
NYSE:SBSWLong
by function_mechanic
19
$JSESSW - Sibanye: 1756 cps Invalidated, Now What?See link below for previous analysis The break below 1756 cps has prompted an update of the wave count. A minor wave count adjustment shows wave 3 of (C) extended into five sub-waves and wave 5 is now currently unfolding and looks to break below the March 2020 low of 1537 cps. The momentum is still to the downside but wave (C), which began in January of 2023 looks to be at a mature stage so I will not recommend shorts at this late stage of the downtrend. The MACD is still giving buy convergence signals.
JSE:SSW
by Loyiso_BlaqueSoros_Mpeta
Our opinion on the current state of SIBANYE-S(SSW)Sibanye (SSW) is a mining house that has been aggressively expanding through acquisitions, accumulating platinum and gold mines in South Africa and America, and now diversifying into base metals and "green" minerals. The company is led by Neal Froneman, a well-respected figure in the mining industry known for his toughness, expertise, and experience. Froneman has stated his intention to retire around 2024/5 but aims to double the size of the company before stepping down. Sibanye is also considering expanding into base minerals used in motor vehicle batteries, such as vanadium, copper, nickel, and lithium. On 1st June 2021, the company announced a share buy-back program to repurchase up to 5% of its issued shares. On 30th June 2022, Sibanye announced its intention to increase its stake in Keliber, a Finnish lithium producer, to 80% at a cost of about R7,7bn. More recently, on 9th November 2023, the company announced the acquisition of Reldan, a US-based metals recycler, for $211,5m. The company is well-positioned under Froneman's leadership, and there is potential for it to reach new all-time highs due to strategic management. Froneman believes that Sibanye shares are undervalued, a sentiment that may hold merit, although the company's success is heavily dependent on metal prices. On 25th October 2023, the company initiated section 189 consultations for the retrenchment of 4095 employees, and on 6th November 2023, it secured a five-year wage agreement with AMCU at its Kroondal PGM operation, guaranteeing a minimum 6% per annum wage increase. However, on 21st November 2023, Sibanye announced the issuance of a $500m convertible bond with a 4% to 4.5% yield until conversion in 2028. This announcement led to some shareholders selling their shares, resulting in a 20% drop in the share price. For the year ending 31st December 2023, the company reported revenue down 18% and a significant loss of R37,4bn. Despite this, the CEO expressed confidence that the PGM price weakness seen in 2023 is temporary rather than a structural change, and there are signs of a better demand outlook. On 11th April 2024, the company began section 189 consultations for the retrenchment of 3107 employees and around 900 contractors at its gold mines. By 3rd July 2024, Business Day reported that Sibanye had retrenched 11,000 workers over 18 months. In an update on the three months to 31st March 2024, Sibanye reported a 3% increase in 4E PGM production. The company noted that Sandouville nickel production increased by 42%, and the nickel equivalent sustaining cost was reduced by 36%. The Keliber lithium project is progressing on budget and on schedule, and the Reldan acquisition has been successfully integrated. However, in a trading statement for the six months to 30th June 2024, the company estimated that HEPS would fall dramatically to between 4.6c and 5c compared with 208c in the previous period. Technically, the share has been in a downward trend since March 2022, primarily due to falling commodity prices. It would be prudent to wait for the share to break upward through its downward trendline before considering further investigation.
JSE:SSW
by PDSnetSA
1
SBSW at 10-moth range low that needs to hold SBSW has undoubtedly been a very poor performer since the highs in March 2022, down 80%. However, as I see it, it has entered/formed a range from end of November 2023, where the low of $4 has been made, to a range high of $5.82, It is currently sitting at the range lows at $4.10. It has actually traded below the range low for a short time, but has quickly bounced back inside. Given that both platinum and palladium look to be bottoming and are showing some strength, I am expecting for this momentum to shift to SBSW as well. Gold is another good performer, which should affect SVBSW positively. I have therefore decided to start building a long position in SBSW at the $4.1 mark and will be targeting range highs at $5.8. IMPORTANT: I understand I am buying an beaten down asset which is currently still downtrending on all high time frames (from 12h onwards), which is not the most bullish sign :) I am therefore ready to cut my position, if we start closing below the $4 range low level. If this is the case, I am expecting a sweep of the $3.88 level, which was marked by the loan red candle, before the big reversal back in the beginning of March. Lets see how things shape up... Happy trading
NYSE:SBSWLong
by Retrace_all_gains
2
Our opinion on the current state of SIBANYE-S(SSW)Sibanye (SSW) is a mining house that has been on a rapid acquisition trail, accumulating platinum and gold mines in South Africa and America. The company is now broadening its scope to include base metals and minerals, especially so-called "green" metals. The company is run by Neal Froneman, who is well-known in the mining industry for his toughness, expertise, and experience. Froneman has said that he intends to retire in about 2024/5 but plans to double the size of the company before he does. Sibanye is also considering moving into the base minerals used in motor vehicle batteries like vanadium, copper, nickel, and lithium. On 1st June 2021, the company announced a share buy-back program to repurchase up to 5% of its issued shares. On 30th June 2022, the company announced its intention to increase its stake in Keliber, a Finnish lithium producer, to 80% at a cost of about R7.7bn. On 9th November 2023, the company announced that it is to acquire Reldan, a US-based metals recycler, for $211.5m. We believe that in time Sibanye will continue to make new all-time record highs due to superb strategic management. Thus, the current drop in the share price could be viewed as a buying opportunity. Froneman believes that Sibanye shares are undervalued, and we tend to agree with him, but everything will depend on the prices of the metals which he sells. On 25th October 2023, the company announced that it had commenced section 189 consultations for the retrenchment of 4095 employees. On 6th November 2023, the company announced that it had made a five-year deal with AMCU at its Kroondal PGM operation for a minimum 6% per annum wage hike. On 21st November 2023, the company announced that it would raise $500m by issuing a convertible bond that will pay 4% to 4.5% until it can be converted in 2028. The news caused some shareholders to switch out of the shares, resulting in a 20% drop in the share price. In its results for the year to 31st December 2023, the company reported revenue down 18% and a loss of R37.4bn. The CEO said, "We are confident that the PGM price weakness during 2023 does not signal a structural change in PGM fundamentals like that of the nickel market, but is more temporary in nature and we are beginning to see increasing signs which support a better demand outlook." On 11th April 2024, the company announced that it was commencing section 189 inquiries for the retrenchment of 3107 employees and around 900 contractors in its gold mines. On 3rd July 2024, Business Day reported that Sibanye had retrenched 11000 workers over 18 months. Technically, the share has been in a downward trend since March 2022, mainly because of falling commodity prices. In an update on the three months to 31st March 2024, the company reported a 3% increase in 4E PGM production. The company said, "Sandouville nickel production increased by 42% and Nickel equivalent sustaining cost reduced by 36%. The Keliber lithium project is on budget and progressing according to schedule. The Reldan acquisition was successfully concluded with integration underway." We recommended waiting for it to break up through its downward trendline before investigating further. That upside break came on 2nd April 2024 at a price of 2230c. The share has subsequently moved up to 2290c and remains a volatile commodity producer.
JSE:SSW
by PDSnetSA
Platinum is gonna rip! Buy calls on this company now!Somebody just bought HALF of all of NYSE:JPM 's eligible SET:PLAT platinum!! This thing double bottomed with a slant, this is repeating the same structure. I think price could double for this month, fall down for a couple of months and then start jetting upwards. I'd buy long-dated calls for the long run, and maybe slightly OTM calls for August $8. This stock will be the number 1 platinum play, and platinum will out perform silver (if you can believe that).
NYSE:SBSWLong
by EmptyEternity
1
Our opinion on the current state of SIBANYE-S(SSW)Sibanye (SSW) is a dynamic mining house on an aggressive acquisition spree, accumulating assets in the platinum and gold sectors both in South Africa and the United States, and now expanding into base metals and so-called "green" metals crucial for modern technologies like electric vehicle batteries. Led by Neal Froneman, a respected figure in the mining industry known for his tenacity and deep expertise, the company is under guidance to potentially double in size before his projected retirement around 2024/5. Sibanye has expressed interest in expanding into crucial battery metals such as vanadium, copper, nickel, and lithium. On 1st June 2021, Sibanye announced a share buy-back program to repurchase up to 5% of its issued shares. The company furthered its investment in green technology by increasing its stake in Keliber, a Finnish lithium producer, to 80% for about R7.7 billion on 30th June 2022. On 9th November 2023, Sibanye also ventured into metal recycling by acquiring Reldan, a U.S.-based company, for $211.5 million. Despite recent fluctuations in share price, which some investors see as a buying opportunity, the company's strategic maneuvers are generally viewed positively, bolstered by Froneman's belief that the shares are undervalued—a sentiment echoed by some market analysts. However, its financial performance has shown vulnerabilities linked to volatile metal prices. On 25th October 2023, the company initiated section 189 consultations for retrenching 4,095 employees, and on 6th November 2023, it secured a five-year deal with AMCU at its Kroondal PGM operation that includes a minimum 6% per annum wage hike. Further financial maneuvers included a $500 million convertible bond issued on 21st November 2023, intended to pay 4% to 4.5% interest until 2028, which unfortunately led to a 20% drop in the share price due to shareholder turnover. For the year ending 31st December 2023, Sibanye reported an 18% decline in revenue and a significant loss of R37.4 billion, with Froneman commenting on the temporary nature of the PGM price weakness and an optimistic view on future demand. As of 11th April 2024, the company announced another section 189 process, planning to retrench 3,107 employees and about 900 contractors from its gold mines. Despite these challenges, the first quarter of 2024 showed a 3% increase in 4E PGM production, significant gains in Sandouville nickel production, and steady progress in the Keliber lithium project. Technically, Sibanye's shares have been in a downward trend since March 2022, largely due to falling commodity prices. However, a significant turnaround occurred on 2nd April 2024 when the shares broke through the downward trendline at a price of 2230c, subsequently rising to 2290c. This movement suggests a potentially volatile yet opportunistic future for investors, contingent on continued strategic management and market conditions.
JSE:SSW
by PDSnetSA