AAPL Breaking Structure! Gamma Says Caution — Is $195 Next? 🍎 AAPL Breaking Structure! Gamma Says Caution — Is $195 Next? 🔻
🧬 GEX Options Sentiment Analysis:
* Gamma Key Levels:
* CALL Walls:
* $202.50 (moderate resistance)
* $205 = Gamma Wall / Call Resistance
* $210–215 = Higher walls unlikely to reach short-term without catalyst
* PUT Walls:
* $198 = 2nd PUT Wall and Heavy Volume Level (HVL)
* $195.70 = Highest negative NET GEX / PUT magnet
* Below $195 opens risk to $192.50, $190 (GEX7/10 cluster)
* Options Metrics:
* IVR: 21.6
* IVx avg: 30.2
* PUT Flow: 0% (!!) – no PUT buyers showing up (caution on reversals)
* GEX Sentiment: 🔴🔴🔴🔴 (very bearish tilt)
* Interpretation:
* AAPL is hugging the gamma flip zone at $198–$200. If it breaks and stays under $198, dealers may accelerate hedging, sending it down toward $195/$192.
* Call side is weak; momentum buyers missing.
🧠 15-Minute SMC Structure Breakdown:
* Current Price: $197.18
* Structure:
* CHoCH confirmed just below supply at $198.50 → bearish sign.
* Repeated rejections from the supply zone (pink box).
* Broke ascending wedge/trendline support on rising volume — bearish pattern confirmation.
* Demand box sits near $195.70–$196.50.
* Volume:
* Bearish volume increasing during rejection = potential for trend continuation lower.
⚔️ Trade Scenarios:
🟥 Bearish Breakdown Setup:
* Trigger: Confirmed close below $196.50 with increasing volume.
* Target 1: $195.70 (GEX/SMC demand)
* Target 2: $192.50 (GEX7 magnet)
* Stop-loss: $198.50
Strong confluence with gamma, SMC structure, and volume break = high-probability short.
🟩 Bullish Reversal Setup (Low Probability):
* Trigger: Reclaim of $198.89 with conviction
* Target 1: $200
* Target 2: $202.50 (CALL wall)
* Stop-loss: Below $196.45
Only consider if SPY/QQQ stage reversal bounce and AAPL leads.
💡 My Thoughts:
* AAPL looks weak and vulnerable heading into Tuesday.
* If price loses $196.45, gamma + structure suggests fast flush to $195 and possibly $192.
* This is not the spot to go long blindly — let the level reclaim first.
* PUT flow being 0% despite this setup suggests retail hasn't stepped in — this could change rapidly.
🔚 Conclusion:
AAPL is breaking down from structure and trending toward gamma PUT support. Options sentiment and Smart Money structure are both aligning for bearish continuation — short bounces are sell opportunities unless $199+ is reclaimed with strength.
Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only. Always manage your risk and follow your plan.
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