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ISP1! trade ideas

06/10/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Market analysisEOD accountability report: +2575 Sleep: 9 hours Overall health: Good What was my initial plan? I was neutral going into market open, I expected market to pullback a bit if we had lost 6016 but it never truly got lost. remained neutral and just watched my levels of 6028 and 6045. **Daily Trade recap based on VX Algo System from (9:30am to 2pm)** — 9:30 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! — 10:00 AM VXAlgo YM X3 Sell Signal — 10:58 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal — 11:32 AM VXAlgo ES X3 Sell Signal (triple sell x3) B+ set up — 12:00 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! 1:03 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal — 1:20 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal Next day plan--> Above 6000 = Bullish, Under 5990 = Bearish Video Recaps -->https://tradingview.sweetlogin.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
CME_MINI:ES1!
by WallSt007
06/09/25 Trade Journal, and Where is the Stock Market going tomoEOD accountability report: +1800 Sleep: 9 hours Overall health: Good What was my initial plan? Bearish going into the market since we had bearish structure, but missed the short at the start of the market. So just waited for gamma levels to hit orr 1 min MOB to be lost before shorting. Daily Trade recap based on VX Algo System from (9:30am to 2pm) — 9:30 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! — 10:20 AM VXAlgo YM X1 Buy Signal, — 11:00 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! — 1:17 PM VXAlgo NQ X1 Sell Signal (triple sell signal by 1:20) Next day plan--> Above 6000 = Bullish, Under 5990 = Bearish Video Recaps -->https://tradingview.sweetlogin.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by WallSt007
Stock market cycles & liquidity, understand it all in 3 minutesLiquidity is a key factor in market finance. Without it, risky assets in the stock market, equities and cryptocurrencies lose their fuel. Over the cycles, one thing has become clear: the direction of financial markets is strongly correlated with that of global liquidity. But liquidity is not a single indicator: it is organized into three complementary layers. Understanding these layers enables us to better anticipate major trends. Level 1 is global monetary liquidity (M2). Level 2 concerns net liquidity within the financial system, and level 3 encompasses overall macro-liquidity, through activity and credit indicators. Together, these three dimensions form the markets' “bloodstream”. The chart below compares the S&P 500 trend with the global money supply M2 Level 1: Global monetary liquidity (global M2) The first stage of the rocket: global M2. This monetary aggregate measures the sum of the money supply (M2) of the major economies - USA, China, Eurozone - converted into US dollars. It includes sight deposits, savings accounts and certain short-term instruments, representing the gross liquidity immediately available in the global economy. This level of liquidity is directly influenced by monetary (key rates, QE/QT), fiscal and wage policies. The evolution of the US dollar plays a crucial role: a strong dollar mechanically reduces global M2 in USD, while a weak dollar increases it. In this respect, Chinese and American dynamics are often divergent, as they are driven by different credit logics (centralized planning on the Chinese side, rate-based adjustment on the US side). But beyond the absolute level, it is above all the momentum of M2, its first derivative (annual variation), that serves as a compass. An uptrend coupled with positive momentum strongly favours risky assets. Conversely, stagnation or a negative divergence between trend and momentum (as at the end of 2021) anticipates a contraction in valuations. Over this cycle, there is even a correlation coefficient of 0.80 between global M2 and Bitcoin, projected 12 weeks into the future: liquidity leads, markets follow. Level 2: Net liquidity of the financial system The second level is more subtle, but just as decisive: net liquidity within the financial system. This is the effective credit capacity, i.e. the funds actually available to irrigate the real economy after withdrawals, excess reserves and regulatory mechanisms. Unlike M2, this measure does not reflect gross liquidity, but rather the liquidity “actionable” by financial institutions. In the United States, this net liquidity depends, among other things, on FED mechanisms such as the reverse repo program (RRP), which temporarily sucks in or releases liquidity, and on the level of banks' excess reserves. Its evolution is strongly linked to the central bank's restrictive or accommodating monetary policy, QE cycles and QT cycles. The correlation of this net liquidity with the S&P 500 and Bitcoin, although slightly lower than that of global M2, remains significant. It acts as a filter for gross liquidity: even if M2 is high, if credit capacity is blocked by excessively high rates or constrained reserves, the impact on markets can be neutralized. Level 3: Global macro liquidity Finally, the third level: global macro liquidity. It includes barometers of economic conditions that directly influence risk perception and investor appetite: PMI indices (manufacturing and services), credit conditions, employment levels, default rates, etc. It is less monetary, more conjunctural. It is less monetary, more cyclical, but its impact is real, as it shapes the context in which financial liquidity is expressed. It is this level that contextualizes the first two: a rising M2 in a deteriorating economic environment (PMI below 50, falling employment) may have a limited effect. Conversely, signs of economic recovery may reinforce the transmission of liquidity to the markets. In this sense, the timing of the FED's rate cuts becomes a key macro catalyst. As long as US policy remains restrictive, M2 will plateau and net liquidity will remain constrained, even if the ECB or PBoC relax their conditions. Conclusion: Global liquidity cannot be summed up in a single indicator. It's an ecosystem structured on three levels: global gross liquidity (M2), effective credit capacity (ECC) and net liquidity. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. 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CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by Swissquote
ES Trade Idea and Upcoming NFP ReportCME_MINI:ES1! • What has the market done? ES futures are lagging compared to tech heavy index NQ futures. ES futures are still below yearly open. Yearly open has been a strong area of resistance since the rally of April 6th Lows in futures complex. • What is it trying to do? ES futures are in consolidation mode, building value higher. VPOC has shifted higher since the gap up from May 11th open. VPOC and 0.786 fib level provide a base for a continuation higher. • How good of a job is it doing? Markets seem to be slowing its rally. After such a strong rebound, participants are wary of any pull-backs. Although a strong trend higher, consolidation or a pullback is not illogical at these levels. • What is more likely to happen from here? o Scenario 1: Hold steady and NFP provides needed boost for markets to get across yearly open resistance and climb higher. o Scenario 2: A mixed NFP report may point towards further consolidation. Key level 5873 as support on move lower before reverting higher. o Scenario 3: A hawkish NFP report that signals higher for longer rates, may be interpreted by market participants as less monetary stimulus and dwindling rate cut bets for this year. We anticipate a sell-off towards 0.618 fib level in this scenario, moving to the lower edge of micro composite volume profile. In all the above scenarios, there is a clear LIS at yearly open. Other key levels are defined cleanly on the higher time frame. Important thing for traders to note here is to trade what you see and not what you think. Having an alignment between fundamentals and technicals is sound but the markets do what they do, and price moves where it should. Painting narrative to any move may sound fancy but it gets less important at intraday time frames in our opinion. Hence why we view all this considering auction markets and volume profile. Glossary: ES - emini-S&P 500 Futures NQ - emini-NASDAQ 100 Futures VPOC - Volume Point of Control: The most traded price by volume in a given range. Represents acceptance or consensus NFP - Non-Farm Payroll: Released by the US Department of Labor around the 1st Friday of every month. It reports on Unemployment, Productivity and other key metrics. Key economic release LIS - Line In the Sand: A key zone that might tip buyers or sellers to act to cover risk and might change the overall bias of our analysis
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear
Don’t Call the Top Yet! Key Pattern to study in PriceHi Trading Community! We’re still riding the bullish momentum and looking for price to reach our 6008 level. Of course, after seeing the +130 point expansion, you might be tempted to call a top. But I encourage you not to jump to conclusions. Instead, observe the price action carefully and respond to what the market actually presents. In this video, I highlight a key pattern that traders should study over the next few days so be sure to review and study this delivery. P.S. We have high-impact news releasing this Friday, so as always, stay cautious and Let’s keep growing together by studying OneCandleStickAtATime.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by MarketsByLee_
June 5 SPX/ES Trade OpportunitiesThis is one of those rare times where ES time-traveled 36 hours and went exactly no where. A lot of people lost money yesterday trading this channel. We were the ones who won the day. And that’s what this is about. My job isn’t to trade because the market is open. It’s to trade a system. I’m thankful for days like yesterday. Why? Because, sometimes we need to be reminded why we have rules. Runners are active from 5860 and 5870. This is a big part of the picture here. When I look above, I we’re at the channel top and we major major negative divergence into the 6008 reclaim. Pushing through this without having some sort of pullback would be a major feat of the bulls. Our job is to stack odds and take Grade A+ opportuntities. Long time readers of ESDaily know the unhappiest bull comes after a move like yesterday as far as building new opportunities. Yes we can continue, but buying just the first level pullbacks here contains additional inherent risk. 📈1st Opportunity - LTB 5944 - 5935(D). At 8:30AM yesterday, this was the only consolidation of the day and you can see an explosive move from this area. If price retraces here, and the following conditions are met, we have a Grade A+ setup. A failed breakdown of 5956 would have to occur for us to enter into this trade. I want a fleet movement under 5956 and into the demand zone. If RSI is above 40 I will add to my runners and bid the zone direct. But, due to the 10 point range, I’ll be doing less than full size. One could wait for price to come into the level and do a confirmation trade, or you could take the 5956 FBD as price leaves the level. I will not be taking the 5956 failed breakdown unless we hit that demand. If I add at the demand zone, I may add more after 5957 is reclaimed. That’s not my focus though. 5944-5935 is. 📈2nd Opportunity - LTB 5924 - 5917. This is only to be taken if 5935 Demand is broken. And we would need to proceed with caution as 5944 is a key demand. We can look to add on a pullback into this 15 min RBR created from 5-6AM Tuesday June 3rd. This is the bottom of the formation that launched yesterday’s rally. An RSI that is above 40 when we re-enter into the level is required. If we bounce off 5944 weakly and rush into 5924, we’ll likely have divergence in place. If we’re below 40 but have divergence, I would look to do a confirmation trade. One where we come into 5924, show signs of stalling, reverse, and I’ll take it on the move out. 📈3rd Opportunity - FBD 5911. Tuesday’s low and a critical area for bulls to hold. Taking out yesterday’s low would evaporate the gains from yesterday. I’d be willing to look at this so long as price doesn’t breach 5898, accept it as a low, reverse, reclaim. Beneath that we run into a very bad area for bulls. Sunday and Monday “wickiness” and chop provides literally no demand zones. The opportunities beneath are spotty at best and have been used more than twice now. I will not be engaging in a long if we fall below 5898 today early in the session. Not until 5867 📈4th Opportunity - FBD - 5853 . A break of yesterday’s low after the rally we got will bring a lot of attention. It’s not fresh - the 5872-5867 (CRA). We used this same general area on Friday and the structure developed Monday overnight and retested Tuesday May 27th. But it’s something I’m going to look at. If we flush 5867 we’ll probably flush hard and look at Friday’s low the 5853. If we come down and form reversal, show acceptance above 5843 and reclaim, we can look to buy. This isn’t a wick down and buy as it rallies. This is a wick down, structure build (maybe just below/at the level) and second bottom with a higher low, and then a series of bullish candles. That’s a confirmed reclaim. 5843 would be near the low I’d like to see on a flush. If 5843 goes, there’s a lot of room underneath 📈5th Opportunity - 5998 LTB only after 6008 is reclaimed. I’d like to see price breakout above the 5998 intraday channel top, where we will likely see a flurry of buying into 6008. I will wait for price to make a new high (by a few points). Watch volume pick up as chasers chase a few points, and get caught. Volatility will spike as we turn, and we’ll get a quick movement back to the breakout point. T1 would be a few points below the new high. The stop will be dependent on the move back in, but not more than 1:1. The 1 hr negative divergence is clear. So I’ll be sizing down, adding a 30% position to my runners. This happens time and time again. If it happens again and ES doesn’t come back down, I want to be ready to add on a breakout. I won’t be buying in subpar zones beneath current price and I won’t be buying above when my risk/reward rules aren’t met.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by esdailytrader
2
S&P500: Approaching the 88.70% RetracementThe S&P 500 continued its climb, nearing the 88.70% Fibonacci retracement level. The top of magenta wave (B) has not yet been confirmed, so under the primary scenario, we continue to expect further upside into the magenta Target Zone between 5,880 and 6,166. Once that zone is reached, wave (C) is expected to take over and drive the index into the next Target Zone — the green zone between 4,988 and 4,763. Short positions initiated within the upper zone remain viable and can be protected with a stop 1% above the top of the range. The alternative scenario — assigned a 40% probability — assumes the rally will continue directly into wave alt.(III) in blue, with a breakout above the 6,675 resistance. Over the long term, we continue to expect one final impulsive leg higher in blue wave (III) once the broader green wave correction is complete. This should take the S&P 500 well above the 6,166 mark. 📈 Over 190 precise analyses, clear entry points, and defined Target Zones - that's what we do.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by MarketIntel
How to Choose Chart Types in TradingViewThis tutorial covers the 21 chart types available in TradingView, explaining what each one is, how to read it, as well as the advantages and drawbacks. Learn more about trading futures with Optimus Futures using the TradingView platform here: www.optimusfutures.com Disclaimer: There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please trade only with risk capital. We are not responsible for any third-party links, comments, or content shared on TradingView. Any opinions, links, or messages posted by users on TradingView do not represent our views or recommendations. Please exercise your own judgment and due diligence when engaging with any external content or user commentary. This video represents the opinion of Optimus Futures and is intended for educational purposes only. Chart interpretations are presented solely to illustrate objective technical concepts and should not be viewed as predictive of future market behavior. In our opinion, charts are analytical tools—not forecasting instruments. Market conditions are constantly evolving, and all trading decisions should be made independently, with careful consideration of individual risk tolerance and financial objectives.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by OptimusFutures
4
ES Futures Weekly Summary — Bullish Bias into June 7, 2025📈 ES Futures Weekly Summary — Bullish Bias into June 7, 2025 🧠 Model Consensus Overview Model Bias Strategy Entry SL TP Size Confidence Grok/xAI Mod. Bullish Long 5,980 5,880 6,120 2 65% Claude Mod. Bullish Long 5,979 5,850 6,100 1 72% Llama Mod. Bullish Long 5,950 5,850 6,050 1 70% Gemini Mod. Bullish Long 5,979 5,929 6,079 1 70% DeepSeek Mod. Bullish Long 5,979 5,880 6,080 1 65% ✅ Trade Recommendation 📈 Direction: LONG ES Futures 🎯 Entry Price: 5,979.00 (market open) 🛑 Stop Loss: 5,880.00 🎯 Take Profit: 6,080.00 📏 Size: 1 Contract 📈 Confidence: 70% ⏰ Entry Timing: Market Open 🔍 Key Technicals Price is above 20/50/200 SMAs on daily and intraday charts RSI ~63–65 → Healthy but not yet overbought MACD divergence or slowdown flagged as short-term caution Near or at upper Bollinger Band = possible consolidation ahead ⚠️ Key Risks & Considerations 🧭 Bearish MACD crossover could trigger early pullback 🧊 Price at upper Bollinger band → short-term pause likely 🔀 Watch for volatility at open or index correlation breaks 📰 Unexpected macro news could shift bias
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by quantsignals