Bitcoin Dominance, BTC ATH and ALT Seasons since 2017-some facts
There is little doubt now, that this Crypto cycle is very different from previous cycles and the main reason for this is the Bitcoin Dominance ( BTC.D) of the Market.
The reasons for this Dominance is complicated but we can certainly point towards the arrival of ETF's as one of the principle factors.
Corporations simply Buy Bitcoin, Hold it and Trade the ETF's - The Key Principle here being that the Coins are HELD Long term.
As we can see from the main chart, we have a key point in the BTC cycle called the Bitcoin Halving. To many extents, the explanation of this is not relevant right now.
But what you can see is how, previously, after the BTC Halving, we saw a drop in BTC.D,
This was due to the money Flow out of BTC and into ALT coins.
As more ALT coins were bought up, the demand drove the price higher and so their dominance increased, driving BTC.D down
This has not happened this cycle due to bulk buying of BTC for ETF's and BTC being Held Long term.
We can also see how , as we approached a certain time span After the Halving, we saw a sharp rise in BTC.D as we headed towards the next BTC ATH as the BTC buying picked up.
Again, this is not happening this cycle as the Bitcoins are being held long term.
What we can also see on the main chart is how we would normally be approaching a period of expected BTC ATH ( green vertical box )
And the HUGE question is, Will we get a Bitcoin ATH in this period ?
This is, to many extents, impossible to answer but as demand for Bitcoin continues and coins become harder to find, the price should continue to rise.
The tricky bit is, now, with a Bitcoin costing over 100K usd, it becomes harder to move the price. Only Corporations can afford to bulk buy.
So, again, things are different.. Retail is struggling to find a foot hold in the Bitcoin market, seeming to think that a Bitcoin is too expensive for them.....forgetting that they can buy a bit and that will also increase in price by the same %.
And so they look to the ALTs, fast volatile price rises and high returns,
This is seen very clearly in this chart that shows us when we had previous ALT seasons after the Halving
See how, after a period of time after Halving, the ALT Seasons appeared when the BTC.D dropped.
And that has simply just NOT happened this time.
It has to be said, it did try to appear. ALT season tried to happen.
See how after 210 days after halving this cycle, BTC.D did drop sharply but, it found a line of support and bounced back, Killing the ALT season dead in its tracks
There have been a lot of attempts since but the Market has been Bloody for ALTS, with sharp rise and Falls destroying confidence..... And Bitcoin continues to Rise.
So, where are we now ?
This Daily BTC.D chart may offer some ideas
BTC.D PA is currently at TOP of long Term range and finding it hard to get over that line of resistance.
BTC.D Weekly MACD , while not overbought, is curling over Bearish
BTC ATH's have previously been attained from Oversold areas as MACD Rose back higher.
The Volatility has gone and MACD is ranging smooth
SO, in conclusion, it is anybodies Guess right now if we will ever see an ALT season again.
Technically, on many fronts, we are poised, ready for it, even if it is a mini one.
But as we have seen on many occasions this cycle, Bitcoin is a very desired asset now and Demand drives price.....and so the Sell off that we need to drive an Alt season just may not occur.
One thing that is Absolutely certain though, we are highly likely to see another Bitcoin ATH
Stay safe everyone and Love one another. It is Free to do and is worth more than anything
