BITCOIN Should we start thinking about the next Bear Cycle yet?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has had extremely symmetric (time-wise) Cycles in the past +10 years and this is a subject we've analyzed extensively many times. We've spent the last months projecting potential Targets for each stage of the bull run and only the last few are left.
This is exactly why we thought today's chart would be very fitting. The current Bull Cycle isn't over yet but also, based on the 4-year Cycle Theory, isn't far of either. By October 2025, that model suggests that all profit should have been taken.
As you can see, we are in the green zone, the Bull Cycle's Final Phase and since this Cycle has been trading entirely within the 0.236 - 0.618 Fibonacci Channel range, by October the price shouldn't be much higher than $160k.
In any event, this is a good guide, presented to you in a good time, to keep your mindset inside a long-term perspective and prepare you for not only the upcoming Top but also the next (1 year) Bear Cycle, which could again push the price below the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line), which would be a solid level for long-term buy positions again.
So do you think the Top is closer than it looks? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
BTCUSD.P trade ideas
BTCUSD: Bears Are Winning! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse BTCUSD together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding below a key level of 118,973 So a bearish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next low. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Are you ready for the BUY BTCUSD signal?✏️ The pennant pattern is forming. After BTCUSD reached a new peak, the past 1 week, BTC price has been accumulating to form a bullish pennant pattern. This is a bullish continuation pattern that signals when breaking the upper boundary of the flag pattern.
📉 Key Levels
BUY Trigger: Break and trade above 199000
Target 128000
Leave your comments on the idea. I am happy to read your views.
Why Your Chart Might Be Lying to You And (How to Fix It) !Hello Traders 🐺
Ever clicked the “Log” button on your chart and suddenly everything looked different?
Yeah, you’re not alone...
Most traders ignore it.
But understanding the difference between a Linear and Logarithmic chart can literally change how you see price action — especially if you’re into long-term moves or trading volatile markets like crypto.
Let’s break it down real simple 👇
🔹 Linear Chart (a.k.a. the default)
This is what most charts use by default.
It measures price change in absolute terms.
Meaning: the distance from $10 to $20 is exactly the same as from $20 to $30 — because in both cases, price moved $10.
🧠 Sounds fair, right?
Not always. Here's why...
Let’s say a stock goes from $1 to $2 — that’s a 100% gain.
But if it goes from $100 to $101 — that’s just 1%.
✅ Linear Chart – Pros
Simple and easy to read
Good for short-term price action
Better for assets with small price ranges
Familiar to most beginners
❌ Linear Chart – Cons
Misleading in long-term charts
Distorts large percentage moves
Trendlines become unreliable over time
Doesn’t reflect real growth in % terms
🔹 Logarithmic Chart (Log Scale)
This one shows percentage-based price movement.
Now, going from $10 to $20 (100% gain)
and going from $100 to $200 (also 100% gain)
look exactly the same on the chart — which actually makes more sense when analyzing growth.
It’s super useful when:
✅ You’re analyzing big moves over time
✅ You want to draw accurate trendlines in long-term charts
✅ You're dealing with assets that grew 5x, 10x or more
✅ You care about % gains instead of raw price
❌ Log Chart – Cons
Less intuitive for beginners
Not useful for low-volatility assets
Small price moves may look insignificant
here is an example of the same chart but in the Log Scale :
As you can see on the chart above there is huge difference in accuracy when you use Log scale
for the high volatile asset such as BTC specially in the long term movements .
🆚 So, When Should You Use Each One?
Situation Use Linear Use Log
Small price changes ✅ ❌
Day trading / scalping ✅ ❌
Long-term analysis ❌ ✅
Parabolic or exponential moves ❌ ✅
Drawing long trendlines ❌ ✅
Final Thoughts
If your chart looks weird when you zoom out…
If your trendlines don’t quite fit anymore…
Or if you’re analyzing something that went 10x…
🔁 Try switching to Log scale — it might just clean up the noise.
Small toggle. Big difference.
And also remember our golden rule :
🐺 Discipline is rarely enjoyable , but almost always profitable. 🐺
🐺 KIU_COIN 🐺
BTC # Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 30-minute chartThis Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 30-minute chart shows a symmetrical triangle pattern forming, with price action compressing between a descending resistance (red trendline) and an ascending support (gray trendline). The price is currently near the apex of the triangle at $118,149, suggesting a potential breakout or breakdown soon. Key support and resistance levels are marked at $115,200 and $120,200 (blue lines). A breakout above the red line could indicate bullish momentum, while a drop below the gray support may signal bearish continuation. Traders should watch for a decisive move outside the triangle for confirmation.
thanking you
Keep following to the H&S PatternMorning folks,
To be honest, not too many things to talk about. We've prepared our scenario with H&S is still valid. Reaction to GDP numbers was quite welcome as it set the right arm's bottom. The only thing that we have to be busy with is to control its validity - reaching of the neckline and price standing above 116 lows and right arm.
At the first signs that market is start falling back - do not take any new longs. H&S failure is also the pattern and in this case we get deeper correction. But daily chart still makes me think that bullish context is here
Bitcoin - The cycles are playing out!⚔️Bitcoin ( CRYPTO:BTCUSD ) just repeats another cycle:
🔎Analysis summary:
Following all of the previous all time high breakouts, Bitcoin will now further extend the rally. After some simple calculation, we can see that Bitcoin will rally another +50% in order to reach the overall price target. However there will be volatility along the way so make sure to remain calm.
📝Levels to watch:
$200.000
SwingTraderPhil
SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
BTC/USD 4h chart🔸 Formation: Triangle descending (descending)
• Upper trend line (orange) - inheritance, connects lower and lower peaks.
• Lower support line (red) - approx. 116,700 USD - key support, tested many times.
🔻 Support
USD 116,700
Tested several times, currently threatened
🔻 Another support
USD 114,669
Target level when struck with a triangle
🔼 Resistance
USD 118,321
The nearest resistance - the former level of support
🔼 Resistance
USD 119,931
Local peak
🔼 Strong resistance
USD 121,107
Upper level of structure
📉 STOCHASTIC RSI (lower indicator)
• Line cutting and a decrease in the purchase area (> 80) towards the center.
• No extreme sales signal, but the trend begins to be negative.
⸻
📌 Applications and possible scenarios:
🔻 Bearish script (more technically likely):
• If BTC breaks below USD 116,700 with a 4H candle closure, possible:
• a decrease around USD 114,669 (lower limit of the triangle)
• Even lower - around 113,500-112,000 USD with an increased volume
🔼 Bullly script (less likely but possible):
• needed quick breaking above USD 118,300 and maintaining above this level
• Then the goal will be USD 119,931, and then possible traffic up to USD 121.107
⸻
📍 Summary:
• We see classic triangle descending-pro-draft formation.
• Support 116,700 USD very close to breaking - if it falls, down movement can be dynamic.
• Stochastic RSI coincides with the deterioration of the moment.
• The inheritance scenario seems dominant, unless there is a strong demand and over 118,300 USD.
Very important Economic Calendar 28.07–01.08: FOMC, BTC, tariffsThis Week (July 28 – August 1) — the final week of the month is packed with key events.
Save this post and forward it to 3 friends 😉
📋 High volatility ahead — as the Fed’s key "threelemma" (inflation, labor market, tariffs) comes into focus.
Several important macro releases are scheduled — each one matters on its own, but combined, they can move markets sharply.
🗓 Monday (July 28)
▪️ 12:30 UTC – QRA (Part 1): upcoming US Treasury borrowing needs
▪️ 16:00 UTC – 2Y & 5Y bond auctions – key indicator of market expectations ahead of FOMC
🔗 Strong demand = stronger rate cut expectations
🗓 Tuesday (July 29)
▪️ 12:30 UTC – US GDP (Q2 estimate)
▪️ 16:00 UTC – 7Y bond auction
🗓 Wednesday (July 30)
▪️ 12:15 UTC – ADP employment report – early signal ahead of NFP
▪️ 12:30 UTC – QRA (Part 2): breakdown of Treasury borrowing
▪️ 18:00 UTC – FOMC rate decision (no change expected – 4.5%) + Powell’s press conference
🗓 Thursday (July 31)
▪️ 12:30 UTC – PCE inflation (June) – Fed’s favorite inflation gauge
🗓 Friday (August 1)
▪️ 12:30 UTC – Nonfarm Payrolls (employment)
▪️ 13:00 UTC – ISM Manufacturing Index (July)
▪️ 13:00 UTC – Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
▪️ All day – July auto sales data
🚨 LIBERATION DAY 2.0
Potentially the most impactful event of the week: the Trump administration will begin sending “tariff letters” to ~200 countries.
This marks the end of the temporary tariff relief (April 8 – August 1).
Markets expect a new wave of global trade tension — timing is still uncertain.
💡 Summary:
Every day brings a new potential driver.
Markets are nervous and highly reactive — sharp moves are likely...
CRYPTOCAP:BTC is currently being held above $117K, but Wednesday and Friday bring high risk of "news bombs".
Bitcoin can start to decline and break support levelHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Bitcoin. After completing a powerful upward impulse that originated from the buyer zone near 106500, the price action for BTC has transitioned into a corrective market phase. This consolidation has taken the form of an upward pennant, characterised by a narrowing trading range that suggests a significant directional move is forthcoming. Currently, the asset is undergoing a sequence of downward corrections within the pennant, exerting repeated pressure on the critical demand zone between 116500 and 117400. The importance of this zone is amplified by its confluence with the lower trend line of the formation itself. The primary working hypothesis is a bearish resolution, anticipating that persistent selling pressure will culminate in a decisive breakdown of this support. This event would act as a bearish breakout from the pennant, providing strong confirmation for the continuation of the downward impulsive momentum and shifting the local market structure. Therefore, the take-profit level is logically positioned at the 112000 mark. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
BTC Retrace RoadMap and 3 nearby supports worth watching NOWThis is a near-term followup to my big picture linked below.
Dip is underway after orbiting our Genesis Fib at 117.9k.
Quickly approaching the next three supports worth watching.
Supports get stronger below but each one needs to slow the dip.
$ 115,140 is a minor fib but possible end of dip wave.
$ 113,9xx is a double fib that should be pretty strong
$ 111,661 is the sister Genesis fib, and a MUST HOLD
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Big Picture chart and why 117.9k was KEY
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Bitcoin Long: Completion of wave 4 (5-wave instead of 3-wave)In this video, I updated the wave counts for Bitcoin, primarily the change is in wave 4 where I believed that it has formed in 5-waves instead of 3-waves.
Because of the new low, both our stop loss and take profit are now lowered:
SL: $113,858.
TP: $124,000
Good luck!
Bitcoin (BTC): Successful Re-Test on Break of Structure AreaBitcoin is showing a good start at the beginning of the week, where we are seeing a successful retest happening, which again might send the price back into the accumulation zone and then the breakout we have been looking for.
So as long as we are above the retest zone of BOS, we are bullish; if we break it, then 101,000-104,000 is going to be our next target!
Swallow Academy